Behind the faded, yellow exterior of the old, British style building on the side of the A9, there was a heap of rubble, and no roof. The building housed the Kilinochchi Post Office and only the front portion with the counters was intact. Just behind it was a pile of rubble from walls and the roof that had caved in. The building, like many others, had borne the brunt of  heavy clashes between government forces and the Tigers that took place between 1998/99. 

On the side of the building, just below pock marks left by one of the many thousands of stray bullets, a government trooper had scrawled a message "Prabha, dan wath athi da ban" (Prabha, haven't you had enough). For reasons unknown, the scrawled message had missed the Tigers who gained control of the town, the showpiece of the Tiger administration, in September of 1998. It was there, clearly legible, even two years back.

It has been a decade to the month and day since government troops lost Kilinochchi. The Tigers launched Unceasing Waves II on September 27, 1998, around 2, in the early hours of the morning. Troops lost control a day later and Kilinochchi has remained in Tiger control ever since.

Rapid development

After the 2002 February CFA, it became the centrepiece. The town developed,  probably faster than any other town in the country, most certainly no other areas in the Wanni or the east saw such rapid development of buildings. Everything from the Tiger Peace Secretariat, that by 2004 had been turned into a two storied building, to various Tiger administrative offices had sprung up.

There were hotels, restaurants and even a deluxe lakeside hotel named Lake View, that would only host visiting VVIPs.

But such rapid strides had been slow to leave their mark on public buildings like the post office or the Kilinochchi Central College where children were studying in rooms with roofs blown off and walls half caved in. The peace dividend was very slow in bestowing blessings on them.

Kilinochchi always appeared more and more like an aberration - the misnomer hit hard as further into the interior of the town the roads and houses hardly had changed despite peace; where dog sheds were made of spent artillery casings or straightened ammunition boxes.

For both the government and the Tigers, more so for the Tigers, Kilinochchi's symbolic value is immense. The message, scrawled on to the side of the wall of the post office was just one of the signs of the  value both sides placed on Kilinochchi.

Now for the first time in a decade, government troops are fighting the Tigers in the outskirts of Kilinochchi. According to Army Commander Lt. Gen. Sarath Fonseka, some of the forward troops can see the town's buildings.

"The army will fire its first rounds towards Kilinochchi town by next week, as troops are some four kilometres away from Kilinochchi," he said last week attending the launch of a book written by a defence writer. "We can even see some of the buildings in the town."

And if the artillery guns also come within range, major Tiger assets like the Voice of Tigers main office, their Political Secretariat and other administrative offices, and further east the Iranamadu air strip all will be under risk of being hit.

Heavy fighting has been reported at Akkarayankulam, Murugandi and Terumurikandi, all located southwest and south of Kilinochchi.

Sporadic clashes were reported from the area since September 21 and advancing troops have also been supported by artillery/shell fire as well as air cover. Both sides have reported heavy artillery fire along the frontlines and aid workers who relocated out of Kilinochchi on September 16 recalled that in the last few days of their stay in Kilinochchi, the artillery fire was non-stop.

Zigzagging

The Tigers have anticipated the government push and have dug deep, zigzagging trench lines, running from Vannerikulam, through Akkarayankulam and towards Iranamadu east of the A9. The trench appears to be the major bulwark against the advancing troops.

Government troops who have made major advances on the western flank of the A9 are now very close to the A9 on the western side of the highway. They are as close as 1.5 km in some areas like Murugandi and Kokavil. The Defence Ministry last week said that troops would try to reach the highway at Kokavil and Mankulam, further south.

"Battlefield reports received yesterday (Sept. 24) indicate that troops operating in Kilinochchi and north of Vavuniya fronts were further pushing their defence towards Jaffna-Kandy (A9) road from west of the Wanni. According to the defence sources in the front, troops of 57 Division were getting closer to Kokavil and troops of Task Force 2 are heading towards Mankulam," it said.

That troops will cut into the A9 is almost a certainty now and aid convoys will not travel on the A9 beyond Mankulam. Mankulam lies about 35 km south of Kilinochchi. The convoys will travel on the Mankulam-Mulaithivu road instead.

The road stretch between Mankulam and Kilinochchi will see some heavy fighting. Reports indicate that the Tigers have placed some battle hardened units at Mankulam.

Opposite direction

Already civilians have begun moving out of Kilinochchi following the aid workers, but in the opposite direction. While the humanitarian workers left south, to Vavuniya, the civilians are moving northeast, deeper into the Wanni. None have been allowed out of the Wanni. Only those few who had dared to risk taking the sea route between Mulaithivu and Pulmuddai have made it out of the Wanni in the last month.

If troops succeed in capturing  parts of the A9, the Tigers, those remaining south of cut-off points will face a similar predicament to what  government troops faced north of Elephant Pass in 1999 - the very real threat of supply lines being severed.

During the Elephant Pass battle, a group of Tiger cadres led by the late Balraj landed on the eastern shores of the narrow neck at Vettilankerni. They moved inland and eventually took control of a part of the A9 between Iyakachchi and Soranpaththu. The move cut-off the A9 supply route to Elephant Pass from mainland Jaffna.

Acutely felt

Likewise, if troops gain control of parts of the A9, Tiger positions in the south and those trapped between multiple cut-off points will be hard pressed for supplies. The squeeze would be felt more acutely in Omanthai that lies 50 km south of Kilinochchi.

The Tigers have so far shown that they are willing to put up stiff resistance as troops gain distance on Kilinochchi. Cadres from the Imran Pandiyan and Charles Anthony units who withdrew from the Thunukkai/Mallavi area have been placed at positions north of the strategic towns along the Vanerikulam-Akkarayankulam axis as well east of them, at Mankulam.

A seasoned Tiger military leader - Bhanu, is reportedly placed in the Mankulam area and another by the name of Lawrence is in  Vanerikulam-Akkarayankulam, along with Theeban, another of the Elephant Pass era Tiger military commanders. He was formally in charge of the Muhamalai defences but has been moved to the southern Kilinochchi defences.

Bhanu's expertise lies in the artillery units and during the September 9 air and ground attack on the Vavuniya Security Forces Headquarters, the Tiger artillery guns had been stationed in the Puliyankulam area, that lies south of Mankulam.

For the advancing forces to gain a hold on Kilinochchi, they would have to neutralise the presence of the battle hardened cadres as well as their commanders, not to mention, gain more ground through zigzagging deep trenches that crisscross the access to Kilinochchi.

The battle could  be won through hard, close quarter fighting with both sides likely to pitch in their best. For the Tigers, if the troops break through their defences, the next stop will be Mulaithivu as there is unlikely to be major defences north of Kilinochchi, and east, until troops get near Puthukuddiruppu and Mulaithivu.

From the limited images that have been made available from the frontlines, it appears that the troops have moved into the thick jungles of  Kilinochchi. The jungles are spread around the Iranamadu tank, from its edges. The Tigers have used the thick canopy and the undergrowth to camouflage bases and military hardware.

The jungle terrain however is thicker east of the A9 whereas on the western side there are more cleared areas due to crisscrossing roads and civilian settlements.

The terrain also opens up north and northeast of Kilinochchi, turning more arid towards Pooneryn and Elephant Pass. It is in some of these open areas that fleeing civilians have sought shelter along the Paranthan-Kilinochchi road.

On four fronts

While the eye of the storm has now shifted over Kilinochchi where the 57 Division and Task Force Two are moving in, Task Force One has been consolidating areas south of Nachchikuda along the western most flank. Task Force One's momentum has been on a directly northward path, that would lead it straight into Pooneryn.

The movement of the four fronts that have been opened along the southern Wanni FDL (Mannar-Pooneryn, Madhu/Thunukkai/Mallavi/Akkarayankulam, Palamoddai/Mankulam and Welioya)  indicate that troops will try to consolidate the western swathe of the Wanni, west of the A9, and allow the momentum to take them east, into Mulaithivu where troops have gained some ground  in the Welioya sector.

So far no major action has been initiated on the northern Wanni FDL where the Tigers are believed to retain somewhere between 700 to 1000 cadres. The narrow Muhamalai neck - it is 11 km across (8 km from Killali to Muhamalai, broken by the Nagarkovil loch and another 3 km of land at Nagarkovil) allows it to be defended with concentration of a smaller number of cadres into the bunker and trench lines. However, beyond the line, there is unlikely to be major defences until nearing Paranthan.

Outcome

The encirclement into Mulaithivu is already showing signs of cutting down Tiger manoeuverability. According to Air Force Commander Roshan Goonetilake Tiger Leader Velupillai Pirapaharan's  movement's have been strictly limited due to air force raids.