No, don't open the champagne. A glass or two of the good old arrack, preferably Walter Mendis's special brew would do.

At a time when nobodies are desperately trying to turn themselves into somebodies and ego inflation is the name of the game we prefer to retain our modesty and hold onto our trumpet.

History

Still for all that, we cannot let this occasion pass. For it represents something of the political culture of the day and it is best that we record our words even though it might only be a footnote when the history of this period and our relations with India come to be written.

Last Sunday under the headline The god that failed we said in this column: "If I was a betting man, which I am not, I will bet you all the money in Nivard Cabraal's Central Bank to a couple of Chennai masala dosai that come next week Karunanidhi would be still seated in the same chair (which, by the way, he acquired new when he assumed office two years ago) polishing his dark glasses. If you believe in politicians, particularly when they make promises that are as empty as their heads, then you need to be certified."

Threat

This had to do with Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Muthuvel Karunanidhi's threat that the whole DMK caboodle and hangers-on from other parties will resign from the Manmohan Singh government if it did not twist Sri Lanka's arm sufficiently to call a halt to its military action and bring out a ceasefire.

Deadline

The Ali Baba of the DMK and his near forty political 'thieves' gave a two week deadline to the Indian government to use strong arm tactics and win these demands or they would quit en masse. The deadline ended on Thursday but Karunanidhi is still there with a resignation hardly on his mind.

One did not have to be a clairvoyant or a Malayalam horoscope reader to say what I said last Sunday. Anybody with a little political understanding and a knowledge of realpolitik could have predicted that the last thing Karunanidhi wanted was to go through with the threat of resignation of his DMK for very good reasons.

If his bull in a china shop politics was going to fell the Manmohan Singh administration from the seats of power in New Delhi, then Karunanidhi himself would be in for a rude shock.

Crashing down

If the Congress government was brought down in New Delhi, the Congress Party would surely have pulled the plug on Karunanidhi in Tamil Nadu bringing his own administration crashing down and well ahead of its time.

Karunanidhi and his advisers would surely have known that the Congress party would retaliate politically in what seemed an obvious tit-for-tat move. Undermining the DMK boss in his own backyard would have been something he could not have stomached, for he was also been literally hit in the stomach.

Stunt

If all that was known as possible, even probable, political reactions in case Karunanidhi carried out his threat and these options would have been carefully weighed, the only conclusion is that the DMK man was pulling a big stunt. Karunanidhi had as much an intention of resigning as Osama bin Laden has of becoming president of the United States.

While some of our chaps were going into fits of apoplexy because of the political tom toms that were beating in Tamil Nadu, those more accustomed to the antics of politicians, especially politicos that are full of bluster ( and we in Sri Lanka do have a few in the cabinet who are full of froth and no beer) would have surveyed the developing scenes on either side of the Palk Strait with amusement rather than trepidation.

Survival

As the deadline for the resignations approached the fissures in the Tamil Nadu political landscape began to surface. What first seemed like a monolithic stand in support of the Sri Lanka Tamils caught up in the Wanni began to show signs of cracking up and little by little the novelty of a united stand began to wear off as political survival began to take precedence over a sudden show of concern.

That might work well in some B grade movie but it hardly pays in long term politics.

So both the central government and the Tamil Nadu chief minister had to put on a show that would seem like a cricket test match washed off by rain. Both sides come out of it hoping that their reputations are intact.

Save face

But anybody who knows something about politics and the way it is played out in our part of the world External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukerjee's  visit to Chennai to meet Karunanidhi was as much, if not more, to save Karunanidhi's face as to cool tempers and show that the central government is doing something to prevail on Sri Lanka to take note of the Tamil civilians caught up in Tiger territory.

This time round the Indian Government was not going to drop Masoor parippu over the Jaffna peninsula. Rather they would send 800 tons of food by conventional routes and means to be distributed to the civilians in the conflict zones.

Actor

Poor Karunanidhi. He is looking even more like a third grade actor than he has been all these years.

There were all those bets been given and taken on Wednesday evening when I dropped into Paradise Club, our favourite watering hole, as some of us are wont to do most evenings.

The chief minister of Tamil Nadu was the butt end of most bets and even more jokes. What would the man do with his daughter Kanimozhi's letter of resignation effective from October 29? There are no reports of her having given up her seat and gone home to look after papa.

Dowry

No sir, so what will the father do with the letter? Some at Paradise Club thought he might give it to her husband as part of her dowry. Others thought he might  stick it in the family album just to show the public that there were other cheap actors in the family.

Remember that great hand-in-hand chain of humans and humanoids that was planned as a gesture to show how much Tamil Nadu cared for the Tamil people in Sri Lanka, the one that was washed out by rain the first time.

Rainy day

Well when they finally linked hands one rainy day, some reports said that it stretched 60 kilometers. Now how many people would be needed to form a human chain 60 kilometers long? The whole of Tamil Nadu, minus Jayalalitha and her political friends and enemies? Well how many would that be?

Pity no enterprising DMK-supporting journalists did not walk the distance with calculator in hand totting up the rain-soaked numbers on the 60 kilometer route!