And they are off! The race is on. President Rajapaksa has taken the bull by the horns and proclaimed a presidential election, marking the beginning of the mother of all elections thus far in Sri Lanka’s 61-year old democracy.

In doing so, the President surprised many who expected that he would take the wind out of the sails expected to be used by General Sarath Fonseka (retd), by calling for a general election instead. However in a speech at the SLFP Convention – which was lacklustre by his standards – he put the question to his membership, who with a show of hands voted overwhelmingly for a presidential poll – despite two years remaining from his first term. True, the President couldn’t duck out of this one, with even the ministers wanting to hide behind his popularity.

With almost predictable opprobrium Gen. Sarath Fonseka was immediately given the usual treatment. The same fate that befelled Anura Bandaranaike and President Kumaratunga: he was asked to vacate his official residence almost immediately. Sarath Fonseka had little choice but to make an application to the Supreme Court, asking for his security to be maintained. In the interim period, Fonseka has found himself offices to work out of and is still house hunting. The number of offers that have come the General’s way are numerous, but thus far nothing  suitable has been found, not for lack of houses, but due to intimidation of house owners by an “unseen” hand.

The General has joined the lengthy list of claimants who state that house hunting has become a rather cumbersome chore when prospective landlords and landladies find out that the government is unhappy with their choice of tenant. The General being a pragmatic sort must have half expected these issues even though it is perhaps difficult to digest when one is at the receiving end.

Politics most certainly makes for very strange bedfellows. In spite of the ideological differences that puts  them  ‘oceans apart’ the JVP has nominated Sarath Fonseka as the candidate of their choice to run against Mahinda Rajapaksa and the principal opposition party, the UNP has endorsed the same candidate. Mangala Samaraweera too has endorsed Fonseka’s candidacy. Rauf Hakeem’s SLMC is yet to do so formally, as with Mano Ganesan’s DPF.

An insight

The UNP’s Working Committee meeting called to decide on the candidate was an insight to the divisions in the main opposition party. Johnston Fernando was deeply unhappy with the choice. He was so unhappy that he asked that someone else be appointed as the Kurunegala District Organiser, giving an indication as to where his loyalties were. The fact that the opposition to Gen. Sarath Fonseka’s candidacy was limited to only three was a personal victory for Ranil Wickremesinghe.

In Gen Fonseka they have found a candidate that is a winner. Initial surveys throw up favourable support for him and the mood in the electorate is upbeat. Negative reaction is not singularly against the incumbent President but more so against the extended family and the rampant corruption the President himself noted in his talk with newspaper editors and the electronic media.   It is obvious why President Rajapaksa is publicly echoing these at a time of an election, and the public would wonder why he did not take remedial action in his four years in office, as touted by his lieutenants that ‘six years work was done in four.’ Being the astute politician that he is he has seen the need not only to accept what people whisper in corners, but also to try and take the wind off the opposition’s slogans by making pre-emptive attacks.

Gen. Sarath Fonseka seeking a house to rent sent shock waves around Sri Lanka. The direct message was ‘if he doesn’t have a house of his own after 40 years in the Army he must be ultra honest.’ Before this sentiment seeped down, the hatchet came out and the national trait of scurrilous mail commenced. But, if Gen Fonseka was corrupt as alluded to, what was the Ministry of Defence doing all this while? Is it a question of “if you are with us, corruption is fine?” Or is it that of throwing any mud and letting some stick? Why were these not brought out when Gen. Sarath Fonseka was in the saddle?

What was Lanka Logistics, a company formed exclusively to handle arms purchases doing? If what Gen Sarath Fonseka has shown in uniform is anything to go by, then many of those accusing him would spend a lot of time in a court house. However politics in Sri Lanka has dipped to such lows that no one is bothered beyond election time. The people continue to barter away their rights with nary a thought for their families or their own futures.

It was Ranil Wickremesinghe who came up with a plan —  Challenges In The Future — which is a comprehensive policy document, from which Gen Sarath Fonseka quoted extensively in his speech to the business community last week at the Taj Samudra, addressing a full house at the invitation of Lakshman Watawala. The UNF led by the UNP must ensure that the block UNP vote reaches the polling booth. It would be up to Ranil Wickremesinghe to garner the Tamil votes. How the Tamil voter would cast his ballot would also depend on Gen Sarath Fonseka’s campaign.

No sooner than Gen Fonseka’s candidature was made certain, the government aligned media moguls got the smear campaign going. By setting the trend they have set a standard and a bruising battle is in the offing. None within the government can now call foul having cast the first stone. Gen Sarath Fonseka must be privy to a lot of information and the dirt is certain to hit the fan in the coming weeks. Lest people forget the government would be hard pressed to defend having sung his praises and also gone on record that he is the best Army Commander in the world in addition to muzzling the media against expressing anything untoward.

With the expected move of Ranil Wickremesinghe to Gen Fonseka’s campaign office, the opposition election machinery will be strengthened. The frontline consisting of battle hardened veterans like Karu Jayasuriya, Ravi Karunanayake, Vajira Abeywardene, and Tissa Attanayake will be a formidable  combination together with Mangala Samaraweera, Rauf Hakeem and Mano Ganesan. Speaking at the UNP Working Committee, Ranil Wickremesinghe took time to explain that he never promised to run for the presidency for a third time. “If this term ran the full period, the party could have decided in 2011 as to who would contest and also lead the party,” he said.

The issue of the minority community’s vote base is a critical one. Bearing in mind that the UNP has a vote base of around 4.7 million voters the estimated minority vote base of 1.2 million is significant by any standards, but more so when one considers the voting patterns at previous presidential elections.

Voting patterns

In 1988, Ranasinghe Premadasa polled 2,569,199 votes out of a total of 5,094,778 against Bandaranaike’s 2,289,960 or just over 50.43%
In 1994, Kumaratunga polled a record 4,709,205 votes out of a total of 7,561,526 against Srimathi Dissanayaka’s 2,715,285 or a record 62.28% which remains the highest polled by any winner in presidential elections.
In 1999,  Kumaratunga polled 4,312,157 votes out of a total of 8,435,754 against Ranil Wickremesinghe’s 3,602,748 or 51.12%.

In 2005, Mahinda Rajapaksa polled 4,887,152 votes out of a total of 9,717,039 against Ranil Wickremesinghe’s 4,706,366 or a little over 50.29%
Much then will depend on the actual campaign. The people of Sri Lanka, apart from 1994, when possibly the sympathy factor played a crucial role, reflecting the public’s raw sentiment against the terrorists in the north, have always voted pretty tightly at a presidential poll. Now that we have essentially two “titans” contesting a presidential poll within an ambience of a seriously damaged economy, the 2009 presidential election promises to be a very close contest indeed.

Sarath Fonseka’s appeal in politics remains that he is untried and untested, but one who comes to the table with a record of delivery. His leadership of the Army during the war against terrorism, does make him a hero in the eyes of the people. Even the government is quick to accept that, despite veiled references to traitors, which if said openly would sound shallow and hollow.

In a speech where he was Chief Guest in Colombo, the retired General struck a chord with his audience of professional managers. Some present said that he spoke with much eloquence in English, and that if he spoke in those terms on platforms across the nation, the betting would be for a victory to the General.

However, Fonseka will need to pay more than lip service to the minority issue. He will need to recognise and accept that the minority communities are here to stay, and not necessarily as guests. They have played an important role hand in glove with the majority community and the General will find it difficult, indeed impossible, to secure victory on the back of an “I am alright Jack” attitude. The General may have had very little exposure to dealing with minority citizens, especially in the Army where the minorities make up a miniscule number. His pronouncements thus far on those issues are not cutting edge. He will need to come up with a strategy that does not show up his ego as does his pragmatism. General Fonseka has even in interviews granted post retirement alluded to his “position” which of course is  worth repeating.  He is as we said, untried and untested in politics. But he has delivered within his entrusted work and the people will believe him over President Rajapaksa to deliver what is promised.

He will need to address the minority issue now, not after he is elected. His stance on this is far more important than his pronouncements on his mission to eradicate corruption, important as that is. The minority issue cannot be dated to after his election. It requires action now. He will need to engage the minorities face to face.

He has yet to tell the nation how he intends resurrecting the economy. Fighting corruption alone will not be the renaissance of this country. Of course he has the luxury of having Ranil Wickremesinghe on that score. Wickremesinghe has been dubbed ‘Mr. Clean’ and together with Gen Fonseka they will project an image that will be hard to match within the current regime even if one was to scrape the barrel.

He must tell us what he intends doing with this very large contingent of armed forces personnel now that Sri Lanka lives in peaceful times. He will be the best judge of that for sure, having taken us into victory in the first place.

President Rajapaksa on the other hand will need to make some drastic changes if he is to win the confidence of a people who do not want to be seen to be ungrateful. But then again, that holds true for Gen Fonseka too. Being just one of the architects of the war victory he does enjoy the people’s adulation for that, but the people are beginning to show signs of frustration with other aspects of his rule. Unlike Gen Fonseka, his track record on issues other than the war will be evaluated.

Chief amongst these concerns is of course, the economy and nepotism. Escalating prices and an all time high rate of indirect taxation have taken their toll on the people’s patience.

The effects of the removal of the quota system has meant that only the best of garment factories have survived leading to greater unemployment whilst the weaker companies failed. The growing number of graduates and un-skilled workers will need to have better training prospects to ensure that they may participate fully within a strong economy.

Efficiency is at an all time low at all sorts of institutions, even in places such as Sri Lanka Insurance which was a successfully run corporation within the ownership of the private sector. Political appointments to its board has seen the professional managers on the board unable to exercise their expertise and authority to sustain and grow it – instead SLI has seen a steadily declining market share with the unions being given a virtual carte blanche.

The debacle that was the “hedging” crisis has cost the country millions of dollars all because there was a complete lack of checks and balances complete with a politically appointed chief executive who clearly was out of his depth. Still at the CPC not a drop of oil has been sold in the bunkering industry, allowing IOC – a foreign entity – to capture growing market share, despite the CPC having its own in-house bunkering services company. The President’s man on that job  has allowed the rot to grow and appears oblivious to the issue whilst the CPC happily doles out credit to government owned businesses.

At SriLankan Airlines the losses are mounting with the Treasury looking at ways in which to get involved in its financing – something the airline has not had to do for many years. Mihin Lanka cost the government around US$ 40 million when the President decided to grant a proxy to a co-ordinating secretary to indulge in his own flight of fantasy.  Corruption then is at an all time high and the President will have to focus his sights on that issue.

There have been growing complaints that had the government focused on corruption and wastage. Sri Lanka would have had little need to borrow as much as it has done at commercial rates of interest. The recent decision to reduce interest rates as a political sweetner is costing the government even more money. Again, the Presidential penchant for appointing party stalwarts to key positions is costing Sri Lanka long term damage – the Governor of the Central Bank being a clear case in point.

Very little has been done to wipe away the so-called fear psychosis. Journalists and lawyers even, are branded traitors at the mere drop of a hat and it is not unfair to say that the media in this country live within an ambience of fear and intimidation. Sending the IDPs back in haste and removing check points at this time smacks of political opportunism and will not be lost on the people.

For Mahinda Rajapaksa to emerge victorious he will need to demonstrate a firm commitment to change, drastic change, or is it too late? He will need to appoint all the different councils – the Constitutional Council, the Bribery Commission, implement the 17th Amendment and stop dilly-dallying with the 13th Amendment before elections.

It’s a tall order but if Mahinda Rajapaksa is to survive this battle, he will need more than victory tamashas and the allure of jobs from new projects such as the Mattala Airport and Hambantota Port. Or then again is it too late for that too?

The alternative, for the people is hope. In the form of the expectation that is General Sarath Fonseka. Instead of purely being the Common Candidate, Sarath Fonseka appears increasingly likely to be the “National” Candidate. And whether hope springs eternal, only time will tell.