World Affairs

Obama’s biggest challenge: Talibanisation

The gravest challenge faced in the 100 days of the Obama presidency has been the Talibanisation of Pakistan. The Obama administration inherited the legacy of Talibanisation from the Bush Administration but in his brief period in office he has not been able to halt the deterioration of the situation but watch its escalation.

The Taliban though it has been the creation of the Pakistan Intelligence Service (ISI) has its origins in Afghanistan where it finally seized power and ruled, or misruled but was driven out into the Hindukush range by American and NATO forces when they refused to surrender Osama Bin Laden who was being hosted by them.

Five years on, the radical Islamist organisation is not only back staging attacks on Afghan cities but has also made forays into Pakistan where it is threatening the elected government of Asif Zardari.

Why the United States stood by as the Taliban which was a problem in Afghanistan that had only 20 million people and spread to the 170 million populous Pakistan which was a long standing American ally has not been answered by American administrations although analysts have provided many reasons. And whether the process could be now reversed in Pakistan which still has a democratically elected government would be evident in recent weeks.

Taliban on the offensive

Last week the Pakistani government sent troops to repel Taliban militants advancing towards Islamabad. The militants were reported to be only 60 miles away from the capital. Troops had stopped the advance killing 14 suspected militants but the Taliban were reported to be holding an entire nearby town hostage. Meanwhile security forces backed by war planes were on Tuesday pushing into Buner District close to Islamabad occupied by the Taliban.

The one year old Zardari government recently signed an agreement with the Taliban to permit operation of the Sharia Law in the Swat Valley after fighting an indecisive war with the Taliban. The agreement was supposed to bring about peace but soon after the agreement was signed the Taliban commenced spreading out into neighbouring regions and enforcing their law.

A video showing a woman being flogged by the Taliban in accordance with the Sharia Law caused widespread revulsion among most Pakistanis and made the government to call out troops.

Political unity

Prime Minister Zardari on Wednesday called upon the nation to sink political differences and extend full support to the security forces in their fight against the Taliban.

American President Barack Obama last week expressed ‘grave concern’ about the stability of Pakistan and urged the public to support the army offensive so that Pakistan could remain a ‘moderate, modern and democratic state.’ Earlier he had sharply criticised Zardari’s decision to sign the agreement on imposition of Sharia Law in the Swat Valley. 

Obama at the end of March in his Afghan-Pakistan policy (Afgh-Pak) declared that the future of Afghanistan is inextricably linked to the future of Pakistan and that the security of Afghanistan was the joint responsibility of the world that required a sustained effort to go after the al Qaeda and help economic development of the region.

The clear goal of the policy was: Disrupt, dismantle and defeat al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan and prevent their return in the future. The Obama plan includes: Ordering 4000 more US troops into Afghanistan in addition to the 17,000 increase he had ordered earlier and the approval of two bills, one of $ 1.5 billion a year for five years to build schools, roads and hospitals in Pakistan and another that would create ‘Opportunity Zones’ in border regions to develop the economy.

While analysts are in agreement that the direction of his policies are correct, they also point out to the collateral damage that is being done by attacks of US drones (unmanned aircraft) on suspected al Qaeda hideouts. While the US claims that many leading al Qaeda operatives had been killed in these attacks, both Zardari and Afghan President Hamid Karzai are vehemently protesting against the deaths of civilians.

These attacks have caused widespread revulsion particularly in Pakistan and youth are swelling Taliban ranks, it has been widely reported. Obama has admitted that ‘a long tough road’ is ahead but that he would not ‘blindly stay on course’ and set clear standards for measuring progress.

Taliban influence

Some critics point out that the success of the Taliban can be attributed very much to the muddled thinking and policies of both the US and Pakistani administrations. The Taliban as pointed out earlier was the creation of the ISI but the Pakistan army was compelled to turn its guns against it when the US declared war on the Taliban and demanded that Gen. Musharaff follow suit.

On driving out the Taliban regime, at the Bonn Conference held to map out Afghanistan’s future, the US tended to ignore the Pakistan army’s requests and instead went along with the Northern Alliance of Afghan warlords. Some analysts say that the US hoped that the Northern Alliance would do the fighting on behalf of the US and that was why US forces in Afghanistan were not increased at the commencement.

This caused resentment in the Pakistan army which once again allied with the Taliban and permitted them to cross the border into Pakistan and see to the growth of the Pakistan Taliban. The question now will be the extent of influence the Taliban wields in the army.

While it is presumed that the people of Islamic Pakistan would sympathise with the Taliban and the al Qaeda, it has been pointed out that at the last general elections the radical Islamic parties contesting the Afghan border regions were routed in preference to the traditional parties, Pakistan Peoples Party and the Muslim League of Nawaz Sharif.

Is it that Zardari is playing games with the Taliban or that he has agreed to US bombing by drones in secret but condemns it in public?

Afghanistan and Pakistan will be the toughest nuts for Obama to crack.