Will This Election Give Us ‘Change We Can Believe In’?

By Cassandra Mascarenhas and Raisa Wickrematunge

With 22 candidates contesting the presidential elections this time around, the highest number ever in any election held so far, one would expect it to be a real nail-biter as a candidate has to receive 50% plus one vote to win the election, which with so many contenders seems a tall order. And a nail-biter it is proving to be – between just two candidates however. Current President Mahinda Rajapaksa and common candidate General Sarath Fonseka have been the obvious frontrunners of this race from the very start, with the other 20 candidates being left behind in the dust. The biggest question now is who will win?

Sarath Fonseka should win, says the chairman of a leading bank in the country, even though he himself works for the government.  But although he supports the common candidate, he doubts his ability to win the election as he feels the government with their dominance over the media and their extensive budget has a greater advantage and that the opposition may not have the money and resources to compete with such propaganda.

Chairman of Merchant Bank of Sri Lanka (MBSL) Janaka Ratnayake on the other hand, feels that President Rajapaksa will prevail.

“He is the better candidate. Sarath Fonseka doesn’t understand the pulse of the people. He is a military general, and as such has military experience only. When it comes to things like culture and the economy, he has no experience. Rajapaksa has experience. You can’t make a leader overnight. A leader must have a vision for how the country will progress.”

Hedging the question, the Chairman of Sampath Bank, I.W. Senanayake responded saying that the people in Colombo and the populace of the outskirts and rural areas have contrasting opinions, which once again, according to him, makes it difficult to say what the final outcome would be.

From the opposing views of people even working in the same field, it is obvious that there is no straightforward answer to this controversial question.

According to the Director of an NGO it all depends on how free and fair the elections will be and that it is still too early to tell who would win, but that there is also evidence of a growing trend of people who want to see change, which could tip the scales in favour of Sarath Fonseka.

K. Hemachandra, a former employee of the CTB believes that there is no doubt that Mahinda Rajapaksa will win the elections once again and continue to govern the country for the next few years. “I think if the UNP had their own candidate they would have stood a good chance in the election but their decision to join forces with the JVP would probably make the public reluctant to vote for them, as the JVP being a communist party would spell doom if they came into power.”

People have forgotten the active role President Rajapaksa played in the war says P. Fernando, a housewife. “Of course the support of the army had a lot to do with it, but Mahinda Rajapaksa achieved something that no other leader of our country managed to achieve and deserves to be voted president again.”

However, yet another housewife from the same neighbourhood is of the opinion that the war was won by the soldiers and although the Rajapaksas did play an administrative role in the conflict, it was through the strength of the army that the war was won. Furthermore, she also thinks that Sarath Fonseka choosing to run for president is a good thing precisely because he does not have much political experience and will therefore bring a fresh viewpoint to the political arena.

Gamini Perera, a software specialist feels that President Rajapaksa coming back into power would result in people having to migrate to other countries, as his family and henchman would own everything in the country leaving nothing for the people and so he plans on voting for Fonseka who he feels will end this nepotism.

A student of the American National College, C. Liyanage believes that Sarath Fonseka deserves to win, an opinion shared by his peers who feel that Mahinda Rajapaksa winning again would result in the country being governed by the Rajapaksa family for a long time to come and therefore the election of Fonseka as president would break this cycle and pave the way for a difference in the governance of the country.

“The fact that Fonseka has the backing of so many parties is a positive sign, which was clearly stated by the crossover of Arjuna Ranatunga who after all is a member of the PA. Rajapaksa is only interested in the betterment and success of his own family and not of the people. Why would we want to vote for such a person to govern our country for another six years?” questioned one student.

Judging from the rather divided opinions of the public, the question of who would win the election is at the moment unanswerable as the vote seems to be equally split between the two presidential candidates. This just makes the upcoming presidential election all the more interesting, as it really looks like it would be a mad dash to the finish between the two contenders.