Obama: End Of A Honeymoon, But Divorce Not Inevitable

The daily message coming out of the Land of Hope and Glory is: The honeymoon between Barack Obama and the American public is over. Obama’s popularity is plummeting, his administration is paralysed and he is unable to get important legislation through Congress.

In an opinion poll published on February 25, 40 percent of the American people said they strongly disapproved of his performance while  25 per cent strongly approved. Only 29 percent said they agreed that America is  “generally heading in the right direction.” On the all-important healthcare legislation which has badly dented the Obama image, 41 per cent favoured the plan prepared by the President while 56 per cent opposed it. The American jobless rate is expected to remain at 10 percent or above while the real unemployment rate is estimated to rise to 17 percent.

Fall from grace

Analysts point out that this has happened to a man who created history by being the first black to be elected as president of America, by a majority of 53 percent of the popular vote, and with big Democratic majorities in both the House of  Representatives and Senate. Barack Obama appeared to be riding comfortably till the beginning of last year and it was expected that the healthcare legislation would be through Congress before he made his State of the Union speech. But his popularity was gradually sinking, and it came to a critical point with the defeat of the Democrat in the election for the Massachusetts seat in the Senate – a seat that had been held for decades by Ted Kennedy, the legendary Democrat.

With that defeat the Democrats lost the required super-majority in the Senate necessary to prevent Republicans from filibustering legislation such as the healthcare bill.

Rampant partisanship

But in recent years there has been acute polarisation between the two sides. With mid-term elections for the Senate and House of Representatives due in November, Republicans would like to see the legislation of Barack Obama stuck in Congress. However, Americans also do not like to see a political party constantly obstructing legislation, particularly social welfare legislation which could invite a backlash.

Obama has a remarkable legislative record. He spent US $700 billion to bail out banks that had collapsed or were collapsing, another US $787 million to stimulate the economy and forced the automobile industry to reorganise. It has been pointed out that the Stimulus Package included US $288 in tax cuts — one of the largest in history. It gave money for energy conservation, home buying and even college tuition, health information technology and even school reform. All this, and much more, in just one bill, as one analyst has pointed out.

Critics

But with the fall in popularity come the critics. It has been said that Obama’s political strength became his governing liability. He was the vessel into which people poured their own political desires. He became the “tribune of political progressivism.” Many expected him to do so many difficult and conflicting things that he could not hold his voters together.

There was also sharp criticism that his strategies to rescue the financial sector resulted in the rejuvenation of personalities who had played significant roles in the financial meltdown. Wall Street, it was said, emerged apparently richer than ever and Obama’s conservative critics were dismayed over the stimulus package, which added a trillion dollars to the debt.

The people’s loss of confidence, it has been said, is largely due to the trillions spent to rescue the economy, as well the controversial healthcare bill. Others ask whether there were any other options for Obama in rescuing the country from the financial meltdown. Cutting down on expenditures could have resulted in another Great Depression; raising taxes would have resulted in the economy slowing down; and printing money would have raised the spectre of inflation.

All hope lost?

Is all hope lost for Barack Obama, and is he destined to be a one-term president?
Not so says Douglas Rivers, Professor of Political Science at Stanford University and professional pollster. Ronald Reagan’s approval rate, too, dropped in the first 12 months, and so did that of Bill Clinton, although Obama has recorded the sharpest drop. The pattern of Obama’s popularity ratings, he says, is “very much in line,” and “what is seen is more of a continuing trend than an Obama phenomenon.”

In foreign policy, too, the stars are not in favour of Obama. He has pledged to pull troops out of Iraq, but not out of Afghanistan. The latest surge of troops into the Afghan-Pakistan border seems to be successful, at least for now, but the pull-out of Dutch troops — the issue because of which the Dutch government collapsed last week – bodes ill for Obama
Professor Rivers argues that “you can’t occupy the White House without disappointing a lot of people. Every president bungles people and has to pay a price.”

He adds: “every honeymoon ends, but the end of a honeymoon is not a harbinger of divorce.”