Pride Before A Fall
The game plan of the Rajapaksa regime is on track. The plan was not only simple but eminently possible. A presidential election as soon as the four years were over, followed immediately by a general election.
With the main opposition all but out of contention and a weak, unacceptable and discredited Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe facing certain defeat, President Rajapaksa was looking for a record victory margin in both the presidential and general elections. By doing that he was first hoping to make himself legitimate. His victory in the 2005 election by the narrowest of margins amidst seemingly credible allegations that he paid the LTTE to block Tamils from voting had badly tarnished his victory. What he needed desperately was a clear mandate from the people. That, he achieved at the last presidential election.
The desperate opposition did unite to back the war winning General in a bid to topple him. The government did hit the panic button and go on an ‘operation over-kill,’ somewhat denting the credibility of the election. However the allegations of electoral manipulation on a four million plus vote by General Fonseka into the 1.8 million defeat are no longer believed even by hardcore UNPers and JVPers. Even Mangala Samaraweera who accused the President of the world’s first computer aided fixing of an election is strangely quiet these days.
It is clear from this election that both the UNP and the JVP have lost from their vote base in the southern villages and to add to their problems President Rajapaksa since 2005 has expanded his base to the cities and towns as well. It is a fact that if not for the votes of the minorities the defeat in the presidential election would have been far greater.
A demoralised UNP and a weak JVP will not be able to stop the ruling party winning a minimum of 125 seats in parliament. From there it would be simple to get 25 MPs to cross over or in the new political parlance “join the government to strengthen the hands of the President.” That will give the government the all important two thirds majority in parliament.
The plan then is to change the constitution so that President Rajapaksa can complete his second term and revert to parliament as Executive Prime Minister or do away with the two term restriction. It is obvious that the Rajapaksa regime has no plans to go away in a hurry. Mahinda Rajapaksa is planning to achieve what two other presidents — J.R. Jayewardene and Chandrika Kumaratunga could not accomplish.
With just three weeks to go for general elections all that seems to be in the bag and with that comes the arrogance of the ruling clique. There are no attempts to even hide the malpractices that are taking place or to put an end to the unprecedented nepotism the Rajapaksa clan is indulging in. The problem for the opposition is that a vast number of voters appear to prefer that to a government run by Ranil Wickremesinghe.
With Ranil Wickremesinghe showing all the signs of wanting to enter history books as the ‘longest serving elected opposition leader in the world,’ the challenge to President Rajapaksa will have to come from within.
Some of Rajapaksa’s brothers and siblings may not have the patience to hang around till Mahinda completes doing the opposite of Ranil — wanting to be the longest serving elected leader of a “democracy.” The other possibility is that some senior leaders of the governing coalition getting fed-up with the Rajapaksa family rule breaking away from the alliance. That was how the UNP’s gridlock on power was broken in 1992. Lalith Athulathmudali and Gamini Dissanayake broke away with just 12 other parliamentarians and resurrected the dead opposition. Just two years later the UNP was soundly defeated.
They say that history never repeats. But for Sri Lanka’s sake let us hope that it does.
Unfortunately the comparison of the last stages of UNP regime and present UPFA regime are not comparable. President Premadasa’s actions were against two senior Ministers who could pause a threat to his leadership while there is no foreseeable threat to the leadership of President Rajapaksha.
Also the popularity of Premadasa during his last stages were extremely low (with people lighting crackers when he was killed) while the popularity of MR is extremely high for a serving President.
The expectations of UPFA destroying itself was a scenario fore-casted by frustrated by UNPers since Chandrika became the President in 1994. Initially it was CB ruining herself within 2 years. Then it was a case of CB loosing the 1999 Presidential elections. Then it was the internal fight within UPFA between Mahinda & Anura favouring Ranil to win in 2005. Finally it was the hero SF defeating the way for Ranil to become the executive PM. None of this happened and any future dreaming on such hypothesis will also suffer the same fate.
If the opposition is to have any remote chance of getting back to power, they should get rid of the present unpopular opposition leader and rejuvenate the opposition under an active enthusiastic fresh leadership to defeat the government, like the Australian Labour party defeated (the undefeatable) John Howard under the fresh leadership of Kevin Rudd. The same happened in the UK with Tony Balir defeating the conservatives. We saw glimpses of this happening in the initial stages of the last Presidential elections until Sarath Fonseka opened his mouth to destroy himself.
Until this happens the opposition should only blame themselves for their present disaster.
We can gauge the real popularity of a president only by having a election under independant and strong Election Commission. President Mahinda Rajapakse unwilling to implement the 17th amendment because he knows well under such an environment his intention of manupulations will be restricted. The Fools LIKE DHANANJAYA believes the Presidents’ approval rating.
Fairose,
Do you believe that all the elections held during the last four years are rigged. If not how couldn’t Ranil win a single election during the last four years. Also If Ranil was so popular (more popular than the President) why did he allow Sarath Fonseka to contest the Presidential Election.
It is up to the readers to determine who is the fool.
Ranil is in unpopular. It is CBK and MR who made it so by going on and on about his defeats etc.etc. Ranil has his faults but he is no unpopular.
Very good response. The downfall of the UNP is of Ranil’s making. I can’t see him being thrown out as UNP’s leader unless something terrible is inflicted upon him which is a terrible thing to do. But the sad thing is that certain frustrated UNP members may resort to that. And you can’t blame them either!!
HA HA HA! HOW ABOUT THE VICTORY ACHEIVED BY MISLEADING THE GULLIBLE SINHALA MASSES OF THE COUNTRY MISUSING THE STATE RESOURCES THAT DO NOT BELONG TO RAJAPAKSE OR SLFP. THE ELECTION LAWS WERE CLEARLY VIOLATED AND THERE IS PROOF IN THE OPEN. WHAT DID THE LECTION COMMISSIONER DO OTHER THAN ISSUING STATEMENTS. INDIA HAS ELECTION COMMISSIONERS WHO ARE FEARED EVEN BY POLITICAL HEAVY WEIGHTS.
BY THE WAY THE NORTH-EAST VOTES IN THE ELECTION WERE BECAUSE OF RANIL AND NOT FOR THE GENERAL.
Paying LTTE during his first election was the best strategic move by MR that saved the country.
Ade Psycho
I thought you are only a joker, good point you are making.
Ado (not ade) Sheriff are you still engrossed in SF ego gas?
Hey Psycho
Ade is a caring word used mostly by Tamil speaking people, Ado is a bit disrespectful, sorry you are an alien to Tamil language.
any way some of your comments make me
laugh keep it up.
Sheriff now I know why you lick SF, you are part of this so called ” Tamil Speaking People” which was the LTTE buzzword !
Gundappa says that SL’s get the type of government they want.
SL’s being lotus eaters do not have brains.
Their brains gets flushed down the toilet each time they sit on the commode.
The lit bit that starts growing after the flush, gets flushed down when they next sit.
They are fools
..dont worry soon your country will beat zimbabwe..mayanmar and somalia..then you can dance….modayas take time to understand..it took 40 yrs to realise that sinhala sri is not suitable for car number plate…not 4 , 40 ,400 months …40 years…….
..remember just one year ago Mayanmar rulers smashed the heads of monks when they went on silent march…soon this will happen in your county..already sanga has become rats…so silent..next if they move on strets forces will folow Myanmar treatment..then you can dance…
This is all just plain speculation. End of the day these leaders have no power without people’s mandate. People vote for Rajapaksa’s because they think he was the best thing to happen to this country in the modern history of Sri Lanka. Let the people have their mandate. Rest of you can cry me a river! It’s called democracy. So SUCK ON IT!
At a loss to understand this: th people of sri lanka have given rajapaksa a mandate. they are likely to give his party a mandate. therefore this is democracy at its best. as you say the people prefer the rajapaksa rule over ranil w. it is clear that at the end of the day the majority of sri lankans dont really mind corruption as long as something is delivered. rajapaksa delivered peace and there is now no war. on the balance of probabilities it is reasonable for the people to expect the president and his men to do the same with the economy and developing sri lanka. development cannot be construed as the sole preserve of the opposition party. the hankering for power within the opposition is luke warm. they whine and whinge but the reality is that they cannot convince 50.01% of the population that the UNP is better. Obviously the majority prefer the vagaries of the rajapaksa rule to the certainties of unp rule. certainty is that under the uNP corruption will increase as all of thse at the top are seasoned veterans at the corruption game. Ranil may only appear clean. he too has cupboards containing skeletons which the likes of taxi abey are forced to keep at bay and certain newspapers and media organisations also keep quiet about as rw is the only alternative if ever the country searches for one. but what a lukewarm, spineless, boneless, politically bankrupt bunch of actors they are: the UNP. wow!
Your argument is not the right one. The MR clan will ruin this country in the name of development.
Until the national psyche changes, any change in the hue of the ruling party will be merely cosmetic, and ultimately an exercise in futility.
Does it really matter who comes into power? What has changed with so many parties flip-flopping ove the past 60+ years in and out of power. The nation hasonly plunged into the depths of corruption and desolation. The need of the hour is to rally round some good people belonging to any party to be able to lift the nation our of the bog. Is that possible?
Editor we patriotics sets world records which no others dare to do,take sana boy pinch hitting dollar notes at the IPL trying politics to hammer mega projects into his pocket stroking the ball font to back again back to font being the only individual to do both at the same time with his greed for money,this answers your last line half way.The other half is our politicians have a well mastered googly calling our lot ” Apay Janathawa Boddhimath”My foot 80% are ignorant and get fed by the chanda gundu with false election pledges over and over again, this repeats all the time.If we ask for coconut milk we get coconut milk and if we ask for coconut refuse we get coconut refuse. A Prosperous Boddhimath Anagatheyak.
RAJAYAKSHAYA WILL THRIVE AND SUCCEED IN HIS ENDEAVOUR AS LONG AS SRILANKA KEEPS PRODUCING HUMAN BEINGS WHO ARE RATED AS THE WORLDS NUMBER ONE FOOLS ( I WONDER WHY IT HAS NOT ENTERED THE GUINNESS BOOK OF WORLD RECORDS) THE MORE FOOLS THE MERRIER FOR THE RAJAYAKSHAYAS. JR AND CHANDRIKA FAILED BECAUSE AT THAT TIME THE RATIO OF THE FOOLS VERSES THE WISEMEN AND WOMEN OF SRILANKA WAS LESSER. THIS ELECTION WILL SHOW WHETHER THIS RATIO IS HIGHER OR LOWER.IF ITS HIGHER RAJAYAKSHAYA WILL ABOLISH EVEN THE PARLIAMENT AND BECOME A RAJJURUWA AND RULE FROM THE PATHIRIPUWA. THE RATIO IS SMALLER THEN THANKS TO THE POWERS OF THE WORLD SRILANKANS CAN LEAD A PEACEFUL AND HAPPY LIFE.
hi roger,
I presume you live in australia,usa,uk,canada or some place like that where only wise people live. so why dont you let these fools in sri lanka to enjoy their paradise with their rajjuruwo.
.nak dont wory after election security forces knock the doors in south and take father,husband,daughtrs to IDP camps simply
because they have voted for opposition….keep on dream paradise life ..frogs….soon they wil print curency notes like Zimbawbe….to pay salary….keep on dance
Seems you still regrett the defeat of SF. May God Bless you
Former General Fonseka voluntarily gave up claims to statesmanship, first, when he displayed outrageous disloyalty to his former army colleagues who are also war heros (see 13 December article) and second, when he ranted like a madman giving summary judgement over his opponents and describing atrocious punishments that would be delivered once he became the President.
Credible stories have emerged on the manner in which he treated his subordinates when Army Commander. Except for a few vocal admirers and favourable articles by the Sunday Leader, there is little sympathy over his plight among the general public.
“Loyalty” is something which is highly valued by even “Gamme Godayas” and “Nagare Nariyas”.
Hi! EDITOR,
Please study carefully the canditates for the Parliamentary Elections from the Central province. Forget for a moment the political differences of the two main parties and please read once again the National Lists of both parties. I found only two politicians fron the central hills for the next parliament. They are Mr.Sarath Amunugama and Mr.Yogarajan from the CWC. I was listenning several speaches of Mr.Yogarajan. He knows how to speak to a Working Class using some theoritical political concepts very simply and his voice and tone are meaningful and very interesting to the ears.
Hello Pali
You have not identified yourself correctly !!!
Your degree has been left out
Your address in Canada has been left out
Tch Tch,,,, your ego has been left out !!!
Gundappa, dont talk like that.
Now Pali is in “Sabbe Labang” mode.
His ego will come back after “Saadu Gungnan’ , because he is a “koyya pataya” it will be very quick.
http://dbsjeyaraj.com/dbsj/archives/1409
Right analysis , wrong conclusion. ‘ Two years later the UNP was soundly defeated’ not because of the DUNF breakway but because Premadasa and earlier, Ranjan, had been ‘soundly’ murdered by the Tigers, as were Lalith, Gamini and Ossie by the time the elections came around.