End Of The Road For Gaddafi?

For 42 years, the enigmatic, eccentric and at times comic, Muammar Gaddafi strode the Middle East scene like a conquering emperor much to the delight of Arabs and Muslims living in the Third World.
The young upstart who seized power from King Idris enthralled  Muslims — who were squirming under Western capitalism despite the oil wealth of their countries. He taunted and challenged the powerful West, and mocked at their stuffy etiquette with his unconventional style of diplomacy. Of greater concern to the powerful Western nations were his alleged acts of terrorism in their countries and suspected attempts to build a ‘dirty bomb’ which some called ‘The Poor Man’s Bomb’. Western commentators called him the ‘Mad Dog of Africa’. Others called him an ‘International Pariah’.

Performer
At Non Aligned Conferences, he performed well with his rambling and often incomprehensible rhetoric. At the Colombo Non Aligned Conference, he taunted Egypt’s Anwar Sadat with his references to ‘Trojan Horses’ in the Non Aligned Movement. We have seen him making his unique appearances at Non Aligned Conference halls in the Belgrade and Djakarta Summits with his stunningly attractive women bodyguards armed with automatic rifles. Ronald Reagan ordered the US Air Force to bomb his residences in Tripoli which resulted in the death of one of his daughters. Yet, he was not subdued.
Gaddafi’s most horrendous act of terrorism was the bombing of PAN AM Flight 103 flying from Heathrow to John F. Kennedy Airport which resulted in the killing of all 243 passengers on board and its 16 member crew. America with its vast investigative resources traced the placing of the bomb in the plane to two Libyan intelligence agents who were charged in a Scottish court. One was acquitted while the other, Abdelbasset-al Megrahi was jailed for life but subsequently released on merciful grounds — the plea being that he was dying of prostrate cancer and had only a short time to live. Megrahi is still alive.

Somersault
Gaddafi, one of the most despised men of the Western world for long years but in recent times — in a short period — suddenly became acceptable to the Western World. Speculation is that with his investments in Western countries, he had a stranglehold on their leaders and threats made against him could  induce the mercurial dictator pulling out his investments. British government’s pressure on Scotland’s authorities led to the release of Megrahi, it is alleged.
British Prime Minister Tony Blair calling on Gaddafi, in his desert tent while being prime minister, is taken as an indication of British supplication. The current crumbling of Western economies while Gaddafi possesses large reserves of currency in Western banks and sitting on the biggest of oil reserves in the African continent has made him acceptable company to British and other Europeans who had earlier been rather particular about the company they keep.

Revolt
But after going through the embarrassing somersault of accepting the once ‘international pariah’ they now find the Libyan people breaking out through the yoke of Gaddafi dictatorship and attempting to throw him out. Riots have spread out from Libya’s second biggest  city in the West to the Capital Tripoli in the East and Gaddafi made his usually rambling  speech on TV on Tuesday — incoherent most of the time — and made another speech from an unknown location on Thursday. He said that he would fight  to his ‘last drop of blood’ and would not flee the country as reported in some broadcasts.
This commentary is being written on Friday when more protestors are expected to come out of Libyan mosques after Friday prayers. It does appear that the days of Gaddafi are numbered even though there are certain groups and a section of the army appears to be still behind him.
If Gaddafi ceases to be the leader of Libya there are no military establishments like in Egypt  and Tunisia that can take over. There are sections of a loosely knit army comprising basically of tribals, most of whom especially in western Libya have already rebelled against him. Some of his key diplomats, ministers and officials have deserted their once beloved leader and joined the opposition.

Western dilemma
Western leaders were in a dilemma last week. They would have liked to see the last of Gaddafi and support the opposition but Gaddafi is not yet gone. If he recoups and retains power it is a risk the financially shaky West cannot take.
Friday’s reports said that British Prime Minister David Cameron who was on tour of the Middle East last week, is in communication with US President Barack Obama on multilateral measures that could be taken including at the Human Rights Council of the UN. President Obama was at the receiving end last week particularly from Republicans for not taking a firm stand against Gaddafi and backing the opposition while others did not want him to go on the offensive against the Libyan who still holds on to power.
Gaddafi on Thursday accused ‘Islamic extremists’ — implying the al Qaeda — of being behind the youth who are rebelling against him. They have been given drugs by ‘foreign hands’ he said. Gaddafi’s warning against Islamic fundamentalists is significant in the absence of an organised opposition. The only possible successors are his sons who are totally unacceptable to the protestors.

Arabia in turmoil
Libya is in  turmoil and is likely to be in that state for some time. But even in Egypt the protestors who wanted a change of regime find remnants of Mubarak’s cabinet still behind the scenes. Many other Middle Eastern and African countries  too are in turmoil. There were several opposition demonstrations against the Iranian government in Tehran in the last few weeks. In Bahrain five demonstrators were killed and angry demonstrators are calling for changes in the constitution.  Algeria, Morocco and even the two Sudans are facing protest demonstrations. The question is being asked whether the current Jasmine Revolution is contagious . It does appear to be so. In the absence of established oppositions would Islamic fundamentalists make their bid to take over the Jasmine Revolution?
There are no firm answers. Some prophesy hoping their wishes would come true. Realists watch the situation and keep silent. Perhaps they are following the advice: ‘Never prophesy. If you are wrong everyone will remember it. If you are right, no one will’.