POLITICS

Playing politics with peace

By Suranimala

While a climate of political uncertainty gripped the country last week with the official announcement of the Supreme Court determination on the 19th Amendment to the Constitution, both the ruling Untied National Front and the People's Alliance were strategising to outsmart the other, targeting the peace process.

With the determination of the Supreme Court on the 19th Amendment made official by Speaker Joseph Michael Perera on Tuesday, October 22, the government had to come to grips with how it can best manage the peace process without a two third majority in parliament, even as the PA together with the JVP were working out plans to strike at the heart of government using the very peace process as a breaking point.

Given the tension in the east, particularly with nine Muslim Congress members stirring the pot by demanding assurances for a separate Muslim unit even before the peace talks have ventured down that road, President Chandrika Kumaratunga too moved in on the act, pouring oil on troubled waters.

It was with the same strategy in view that the President in her address to the nation on Thursday, while holding out the hand of reconciliation, made specific reference to the situation in the east casting aspersions on the government's handling of the entire peace process.

In fact, the President in no uncertain terms distanced herself from the entire process claiming those handling the peace process should work to a well thought out strategy.

The east has long been identified by the PA, as evidenced in its out coup document, as the theatre from which the curtain will eventually fall on the peace process and hence with the SLMC MPs demanding their pound of flesh, the opposition has taken the view, it is opportune to move in at this stage and derail the entire process. And so, the President also pledged her support for a separate Muslim unit.

Sowing the seeds of dissension

It is in this backdrop information was also received by the government that the staged abduction of the Muslim youth in Akkaraipattu was part of an elaborate plan to sow the seeds of dissension among the Muslims and Tamils and create mayhem, and strengthen the hands of the SLMC MPs demanding a separate Muslim majority unit in the east.

The perception was that with the Tamils firmly behind the UNF, it was politically prudent to woo the Muslims from the east and confuse the entire process, making the peace talks in Thailand an exercise in futility.

That the Muslim youth who had purportedly staged his own abduction and claimed it was the LTTE was a member of Douglas Devananda's EPDP did not help allay fears of the government either that an elaborate plan was underway to derail the entire peace process by attempting to pin the case on the Tigers, especially given the EPDP's links to the PA.

The nine SLMC MPs from the east too were using the purported abduction for good measure, whipping up emotion in the area and threatening not to support the government on the 19th Amendment unless assurances were given by the Prime Minister no less that their demand for a separate Muslim majority unit is met.

And in making this demand, the Muslim MPs were pointing out to the abduction of the Muslim youth and the prevalent tension in the area to justify their claim for a separate Muslim unit on the basis the Muslims will have no security under a LTTE dominated council.

Thus, without the nine SLMC MPs voting with the government on the 19th Amendment, it was good as dead for want of a two third majority notwithstanding the pledge by 20 PA MPs to vote with the UNF. At the same time, if the Prime Minister gave the assurance sought by the SLMC MPs even before the specifics were discussed in Thailand, the peace talks would have come to an abrupt end with the LTTE claiming the government has predetermined the basis of a solution. Prime Minister Wickremesinghe was in a catch 22 situation.

It is in this tense situation, the government saw a silver lining in the otherwise disastrous Supreme Court ruling on the 19th Amendment.

For, by knocking out the conscience vote provision and making the amendment a dead letter, the threat by the nine SLMC MPs not to vote with the government became redundant and hardly had any time lapsed on this determination becoming public that the 'abducted' Muslim youth surfaced, claiming he had stage managed it as a private stunt to get a ransom. A bit rich to swallow considering the near riots that led to the staged abduction but that was to be the official line of the EDPD member.

There was for the government thus no immediate threat of losing a vote in parliament especially with the 15 TNA members pledging their support and the Prime Minister obtained valuable time till he contemplated his next move.

And this development also called for a shift of focus for the PA while keeping the pressure on the eastern situation and that focus was to be the joint task force between the government and the LTTE for the development of the strife torn area.

This became evident from two significant statements made by President Kumaratunga last week in the midst of speculation that the PA is working on a pact with the JVP and the MEP to the exclusion of the pro peace left parties such as the LSSP and the CP.

Towards this end, the executive committee of the SLFP is expected to be summoned on November 8 to obtain ratification, pushing the SLFP into a pan Sinhala line together with the JVP and the MEP.

Collective strength

The logic is simple; if the President opts to dissolve parliament anytime after December 5 claiming the UNF government is jeopardising the sovereignty and unity of the nation by helping the LTTE to establish a de facto state of Eelam, then an electoral arrangement in the south where the SLFP and JVP pool its vote banks would help them pip the UNF through its collective strength.

Furthermore, with the north in any event electing TNA MPs as opposed to those from the UNF and the east delicately poised due to the stance taken by the Muslim MPs, odds would be in favour of the SLFP-JVP-MEP combine defeating the UNF in most districts if not all other than the north.

Such a policy no doubt would lead to the breakdown of the peace process and all-out war but the name of the game is power politics and that is the first item in the agenda.

Thus, when the PA parliamentary group met on Monday, October 21, President Kumaratunga hinted at what's in store, stating she cannot in the name of peace stay silent when the government is paving the way for a de facto Eelam

"In the name of peace, I cannot blindly agree to everything. The east is facing a very dangerous situation and we cannot allow that situation to continue," she said.

Continuing, the President identified seven incidents such as the abduction of the Muslim youth and attacks in Trincomalee on the STF camp in Kanchirankudah as examples of the LTTE's "flagrant violations" of the MoU signed with the government and said she can no longer shut her eyes to them.

It is the same line the President also adopted in her address to the nation, showing clearly a strategy of bracing herself for action on the peace front.

Interestingly, prior to the President's arrival at the meeting, national list MP, Dilan Perera cautioned against dissolution of parliament stating it was not an opportune time to so do.

He said the President should not be misled by a few members around her who will say the time is opportune when it is not so.

"They will say the people are with us. That is not the case. The MPs must be asked before any decision regarding dissolution is taken," Perera added.

Interjected Anura Bandaranaike - "As an advisor to the President, I can say there will be no dissolution."

Subsequently, upon the President's arrival, Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapakse brought to Kumaratunga's notice the concerns raised by Perera and she assured, she will not deviate from the assurance given to the speaker of not dissolving for three years.

But that assurance of course is not a blanket guarantee, the wording being such, an escape route citing the situation in the country is provided for to enable dissolution and still justify the pledge given to the speaker.

Significant

Significantly, in her address to the nation, the President studiously avoided making reference to the issue of dissolution, especially not reiterating the assurance given to the speaker in writing which in turn has raised doubts whether she will in fact dissolve at an opportune moment, well before the earlier assurance of three years is up.

Be that as it may, apart from moving to make political capital of the eastern situation, the President is also set to strike at the joint task force setting up a strategy to challenge it in court. That is to be Kumaratunga's primary shift in focus from the east.

The joint task force concept was born in Thailand during the first round of talks and is expected to be the mechanism through which the government and the LTTE are to develop and reconstruct the war ravaged areas.

It is for that very purpose Norway has organised a pledging conference next month in Oslo where both the Prime Minister together with a government delegation as well as LTTE participation are expected.

This meeting is to be followed up with a bigger pledging conference in Japan early next year, and the monies pledged will be used not only to develop the north east but also the south and west as a peace dividend to the people. It is to also mark the economic revival of the country including the generation of employment through the development work to follow.

Purely in political terms, if the joint task force (JTF) gets underway, it would have a negative impact on the political fortunes of the opposition with the prospect of war being pushed further back in addition to development activity getting underway.

Thus, the opposition and the President have decided to strike at the very heart of the JTF and the first signal of Kumaratunga's intentions came when she dodged meeting Norway's Deputy Foreign Minister, Vidar Helgessen on Wednesday, October 23.

What could be more important for the President of the country than the peace process and its progress and to find out first hand from the key player in the drama the latest developments, especially when the meeting was scheduled just hours after Helgessen's meeting with LTTE Leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran?

Nevertheless, the President cancelled the meeting stating she was 'busy' but she neither attended the PA's Nugegoda rally the same evening nor the cabinet meeting. She did however attend a book launch for late M.H.M. Ashraff.

Interestingly, the President had agreed to meet the Norwegians for just 30 minutes on Saturday, October 26, knowing fully well they were scheduled to leave on Thursday, October 24.

Whatever the spin, her Advisor Lakshman Kadirgamar gave for the cancellation of the meeting, the reality was that the President was bracing herself to opposing the Norwegian role in the peace process, given the new alliance to be formed with the JVP.

Thus, the President was heard to tell confidantes that the Norwegians had exceeded their mandate by getting involved in the internal affairs of Sri Lanka such as the establishment of the joint task force for development work and visiting the south and as such she was not inclined to meet with them.

The visit of the Norwegian delegation to the south to look at development work was particularly galling to the opposition since it was the heart of the JVP and SLFP, and any funding for development in the south as a peace dividend would be politically disastrous to these parties.

For, to keep the issue on the boil and impress upon the people in the south the peace process was only paving the way for Eelam with no benefit to the country at large, development assistance had to be stalled and Norway's foray into the south last week was seen in this context as a dangerous development to the opposition's political fortunes.

And all those factors determined President Kumaratunga's decision to snub the Norwegians and send out a clear signal she is no longer in a mood to cooperate with the peace process as she considers it a frame work not only for the establishment of a de facto state of Eelam but also compromising the country's sovereignty.

Breathing fire

Ironically, even before the president decided to come out against the joint task force, the LTTE was breathing fire on it leading to the perception in government, it was going to be a deal breaker.

LTTE's contention was that the task force should not operate out of the Prime Minister's office since it compromised the LTTE's position until such time a final settlement was reached.

However, during Helgessen's meeting with Prabhakaran on Wednesday, the LTTE supremo had not pressed the issue, instead requesting the Norwegians to work out a mechanism that would not leave the LTTE operating under the government.

Another positive development which emerged at these talks was Prabhakaran's agreement to send LTTE's Batticaloa District Military Wing Leader Karuna for the Thailand talks to discuss the issues in the east particularly relating to the Muslims. Both Tamilchelvam and Karuna are expected to fly out of Katunayake.

Prior to Helgessen's visit to meet the LTTE leadership he also had a dinner meeting with Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and several rounds of talks with the government negotiators, Ministers G.L. Peiris, Milinda Moragoda and Rauf Hakeem, where once again the focus was on the joint task force.

One thorny problem that surfaced from the government side with regard to the task force, of course was posed by Minister Hakeem who insisted, the wording should be changed in a way there was to be no reference to two parties, namely the government and the LTTE.

Hakeem's contention was that there was a Muslim dimension to the problem as well and it should not be excluded by referring to two parties. The SLMC leader did not insist on the wording to be changed to 'three parties' but did not want their implied exclusion by referring to only two parties.

In fact, even the nine rebel SLMC MPs have jumped on the issue claiming there should be two task forces, one for the north and one for the east with representation for them in the JTF for the east.

The LTTE leader however was not amenable to a change in the wording of the JTF draft prepared by the Norwegians as urged by Hakeem. That issue is now expected to be addressed in Thailand, where the venue for the talks is being shifted from Sattahip to Bangkok.

Thus, the next round of talks is going to be crucial given the President's opposition to the JTF and the SLMC dimension on the JTF in general and the Eastern Province situation in particular but Helgessen has expressed confidence an agreement can be worked out.

Election speculation

These factors and the uncertainty of the political situation in the south following the Supreme Court ruling on the 19th Amendment were also not lost on the Norwegians, particularly in light of speculation over a general election and they broached the subject with both the LTTE and the government.

This is all the more significant since the government would need a two third majority in parliament to implement any agreement even with regard to an interim council being reached in Bangkok and none is more alive to this fact than the LTTE.

Accordingly, the LTTE has made it known to the Norwegians that they would do their utmost to ensure the stability of the government, thereby keeping the peace process alive but indicated an election would be the best option to ensure that stability.

The message, the LTTE sought to convey is that it can persuade the 15 TNA MPs to support a resolution calling for the dissolution of parliament, paving the way for the government to seek a fresh mandate from the people on a peace platform and then move towards a two third majority in parliament.

And on Monday night, at the Prime Minister's dinner meeting with the visiting delegation of Helgessen, Erik Solheim, Lisa Gold and Ambassador Jon Westborg, the Norwegian Deputy Foreign Minister asked the Prime Minister whether a general election was likely at this juncture.

Non-committal on the issue, the Prime Minister said it was one of the options under consideration by the government.

The Prime Minister for his part of course realises some decisive action is needed on his part to restore confidence in the government following the Supreme Court decision but has decided to adopt a wait and see policy until such time the Muslim Congress issue is resolved one way or the other and of course President Kumaratunga's address to the nation.

In fact this was the message he had for the UNF's Political Affairs Committee Tuesday night, albeit one firm decision was arrived at.

At this meeting, which was attended by Ministers G.L. Peiris, K.N. Choksy, Tilak Marapone, Rauf Hakeem, S.B. Dissanayake, Karu Jayasuriya, UNP Chairman Malik Samarawickrema and General Secretary Senarath Kapukotuwa, it was made very clear, he did not trust Kumaratunga and cohabitation was not an option.

The trend was set at the outset by Malik Samarawickrema who said cohabitation with the President was out of the question since she was only interested in lulling the government into a false sense of complacency and then pulling the rug under its feet.

"We know what her plans are and is doing everything possible to undermine the peace process, so there can be no cohabitation," he said.

The lone voice that mooted the idea of a possible cohabitation was Minister Hakeem but the overwhelming opinion was to the contrary with Defence Minister Tilak Marapone also ruling it out.

Added Samarawickrema, "What she says in the morning is not what she does in the night. If there is an election called on her terms, the SLMC will be vulnerable. So be positive, no cohabitation."

Making his own contribution, Minister Dissanayake said the government must ready itself for an election around March and launch a full scale offensive on the President and the Chief Justice.

He said the government must immediately appoint a select committee to probe the conduct of the Chief Justice or impeach him.

The prime minister himself said the government must explore the possibility of another amendment to the constitution, whereby the two third majority can be obtained.

"The PA MPs have said they will bide their time and to bring another amendment. Since we still have the numbers, let's look at that option also," the Prime Minister said.

And subsequent to President Kumaratunga's address to the nation, the Prime Minister was more convinced than ever cohabitation would be impossible, given the tenor of her address.

Impossible agenda

The Prime Minister's take on the address was that the President was seeking to set the agenda for the government's peace initiative, economic programme and constitutional reform and that it was an impossible agenda to follow.

Accordingly, the Prime Minister on Friday told both UNP Chairman Malik Samarawickrema as well as Minister Peiris that the people had given the UNP a mandate and it is that mandate that has to be executed and not Kumaratunga's.

The Prime Minister had further said if the President is sincere about cohabitation, she should agree to cooperate with the UNF to execute the mandate given it by the people rather than be seen as a spoiler. Likewise, Malik Samarawickrema on Thursday when asked about a cohabitation arrangement by Lakshman Kadirgamar said there was no need for such institutionalisation and that the government intends carrying out its mandate.

Even as the Prime Minister and Malik Samarawickrema were taking this tough line though not publicly, behind the scenes moves were underway by a powerful section of the PA to push forward for a cohabitation arrangement and eventually a national government between the UNF and the PA.

Towards this end, former Minister John Seneviratne had extensive discussions with Lands Minister Rajitha Senaratne last week stating that the President was amenable to work on an agreed agenda with the UNF and they should explore the possibility.

Senaratne had also said despite the earlier hostility between Kumaratunga and Senaratne, she was now prepared to bury the hatchet and move forward.

Likewise, former Education Minister Susil Premajayanth also urged Senaratne to push ahead with cohabitation stating there will be no country for any one to govern if the process breaks down.

"Even if we capture power, how can we govern if there is no peace? The war will breakout and there will be mayhem. So let us work together and sort the problems out," he told Senaratne.

In a related development, SLFP General Secretary, Maithripala Sirisena also broached the subject of a national government with Minister Gamini Jayawickrema Perera and said if it was in the best interest of the country to pursue such an option and if the UNF was amenable to such a move, he would take the responsibility of pushing it in the SLFP.

All these moves however are viewed with deep suspicion by the government due to a lack of faith in the President, who the Prime Minister believes, despite all the well meaning members of the PA is out to sabotage the peace process.

The bottom line is, with cohabitation out of the question, and the President all set to launch her offensive against the peace process, the people are in for a bumpy ride in the weeks and months to come.

The day PA had UNF on the run in parliament

By Dilrukshi Handunnetti

The ongoing parliamentary drama if nothing else, keeps this nation thoroughly entertained. There is little entertainment in the life of voter Silva as prices escalate alarmingly, with the 'spillover' effect being the corresponding increase in the cost of living. All the entertainment he could perhaps afford in such a backdrop comes in the form of sadistic pleasure derived by regular viewing of parliamentary theatrics.

But the unfolding political drama had a daunting effect last week on the ruling UNF, but left the opposition in high spirits. The government indeed trod dangerous ground as they sought to constitutionally clip presidential wings - to snatch the chief executive's powers to dissolve parliament after one year. In their haste, others matters were given secondary importance and the brilliant blunder was rewarded with a judicious slap when the Supreme Court held the 19th Amendment unconstitutional.

Hence, Tuesday morning was a joyous occasion for the opposition, as they freely goaded Prof. G.L. Peiris, the man credited with fathering the draconian amendment. The day began for the opposition with a chorus of "Ko Peiris" as Speaker Joseph Michael Perera read out the determination in parliament, in the absence of Minister G.L. Peiris.

The UNF seemed to have cup full concerns, with some of the SLMC still on a parliament boycott and the embarrassment of the determination on the 19th Amendment. The country has been Shell-shocked too, with the price of a gas cylinder reaching Rs. 560, all of which collectively didn't augur well for a new administration that professed to lighten the burdens on the  people.

So Tuesday morning was largely dedicated to G.L. bashing and every opposition speech had reference to the law professor's lack of legal knowledge to push a constitutional amendment, despite the debate being on amendments to the finance bill and the 2002 appropriation bill.

Soon after the slogan shouting, it was burly Nimal Siripala de Silva's opportunity to speak. He had a field day, heaping scorn on the government as he lambasted the UNF's economic performance. "These are the guys who patted themselves on their backs and announced to the country with such arrogance, that things would simply fall into place the moment they come in. Where is efficient governance and a well managed economy?" he queried.

With great aplomb, he demanded to know what has happened to the promised economic relief to the poor. "Shell gas prices have increased, fertiliser subsidy has been scrapped, where are the investors, where are the new industries," he demanded.

The lawyer could not help himself as he commented on Minister G.L. Peiris. "We accept his academic brilliance. But the PA suffered from his bad advice, and now it is your turn to pay. One thing about him is that he lacks the practical legal knowledge of a student of law," he scoffed.

Lauding the judiciary for a determination that upheld the right of constituents, he said that the UNF's attempt was to whip the judiciary to get what it wanted. "That's what you did with the PA supporters, but your attempt to brow beat the judiciary has failed," he said.

Taking de Silva's argument further was Gampaha District PA legislator Felix Perera. Recalling the time the PA was elected to power, he claimed that the prime duty of the PA then was to change the terrible image of Sri Lanka as an island of barbarians.

"That's the reputation you had earned for the country. The international community shunned us as people who created tyre pyres for fellow men. This country seven years ago smelled of blood and burnt tyres. It is we who gave people their human dignity back," said Perera.

Interesting theory

As Perera continued to speak, in walked Minister Peiris, and the errant Mahindananda Aluthgamage could not resist poking fun at him. "Mahacharyathuma, chakablast neda," he purred, as the Minister silently took his first row seat.

And he had an interesting theory on foreign borrowing. The PA borrowed heavily, he admitted, but the purpose was to settle the loans obtained by the UNP since 1978. "By the time we assumed office, we had to repay loans. Your have borrowed excessively and we had to pay back the agencies. Naturally, this country went through hard times, and the root cause was the UNP again," he said.

Higher Education Minister Kabir Hashim had different thoughts. His argument was that the UNF was voted into office at the worst time in post independence, and hence the gamut of problems they had to dispense with. "An economy in shambles, investor absence, a power crisis and a mismanaged war were our inheritance. Naturally, it would take the UNF sometime to begin delivering," he said, appealing for understanding.

Novel  indicator

The youthful Minister jested that every time the Prime Minister spoke, the share market picked up, and it had the reverse effect the moment President Kumaratunga made a public speech. "I would say that's the best indicator of investor confidence," he said, scoffing at the idea that the UNF government could be undone fast.

Tuesday provided ample opportunity for PA legislators who gave vent to their feelings. With the 'royal blunder' committed by the government with the 19th Amendment, the PA back-benchers cracked their whips on the UNF with no mercy.

Rohitha Abeygunawardane, a young Kalutara District legislator too liberally heaped scorn on the UNF - covering all fronts as he professed to speak on the finance bill.

"Now where is the economist, Ravi Karunanayake who used to write a weekly column on economic management? What has he achieved, barring his vain attempt to keep Sathosa outlets open till midnight, which gather no customers, only flies?" he scoffed.

Cautioning, he said that every time a government has removed subsidies and added to the economic burdens, people have given their silent verdict at polls. "Be warned. This is true of PA and UNP governments both. Your so-called tip top management team too has failed to deliver, but the subsidies have been effectively removed," he noted.

He could not also resist taking a dig at former PA frontliner Minister S.B. Dissanayake. The burly Minister he said, promised the youth of this country prosperity through his 'Samurdhi' initiative. But the UNF has drastically reduced it, compelling the Minister to advocate self-reliance instead of dependence on social security and subsidies. "He need not worry, for he is samurdhimath enough. Look at his burly figure," sniped the MP, much to the amusement of the House.

Minister Bandula Gunawardena was next in line, and his attempts to turn the House into a classroom did not work, as he delivered his oft-repeated speech on a sluggish economy.

Of course, as all government legislators do, he held the PA responsible for empty coffers that left the new administration penniless. "What about all your economics and revival theories," queried some cheeky opposition members.

Choosing to ignore the snide remarks, Gunawardena repeated that one third of government revenue was spent on public sector salaries, and added that there could be no more salary increases for a while.

"Let's get real. Can there be salary increases, Samurdhi benefits and a host of other relief measures in such a situation," he responded.

Besides the lacklustre debating, the week saw some political developments that cannot augur well for the ruling coalition. Three SLMC rebels did return to the House, but the counter balance was when the three NUA members promised to lend support to the SLMC cause, which is to urge a separate administrative unit for the Eastern Province.

Eastern situation

Wednesday, the House was full of  woe with condolence motions being taken up, but the afternoon witnessed some quick fire. JVP's Sunil Handunetti moved an adjournment motion which called for Presidential intervention to settle the situation of unrest prevailing in the Eastern Province, which saw the sudden demand for time by the TNA members who judiciously felt it their right to express views on the eastern situation.

TULF's R. Sampanthan stamped his foot in fury demanding time be allocated from the opposition time of 30 minutes for TNA members to speak - while the TNA showered fury and contempt on the JVP group, as Sampanthan thundered that the TNA had a legitimate right to express their views and "refused to be cowed down by some brats."

In their walk out, what the TNA perhaps overlooked was the need to have settled the issue of time allocation with the chief opposition whip, and not the JVP, the movers of the motion and thereby getting the wrong end of the stick.