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Oslo optimism: reality check required

"It's a long way to Tipperary,  It's a long way to go;

It's a long way to Tipperary,  It's a long, long way to Tipperary,

But my heart's right there !"
                                                         - Jack and Harry Williams

 By D. B. S. Jeyaraj

The third round of talks between the Sri Lankan government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) held in the Norwegian capital Oslo  from December 2 to 5  ended on a buoyant note with both parties reaching agreement on exploring the feasibility of a federal structure to resolve the Tamil national question.

The Royal Norwegian govt communique of December 5,  on the Oslo talks says : "Responding to a proposal by the leadership of the LTTE, the parties agreed to explore a solution founded on the principle of self - determination in areas of historical habitation of the Tamil speaking people based on a federal structure within a united Sri Lanka. The parties acknowledged that the solution has to be acceptable to all communities. Guided by this objective, the parties agreed to initiate discussions on substantive political issues such as but not limited to power sharing between the centre and the region as well as within the centre."

While the official Norwegian communique is explicit  about the parties agreeing only to "explore" a solution, an overall impression is being projected by different elements for diverse purposes that division of the country has given way to power sharing and secessionism has been  supplanted by federalism.

An unrealistic pattern emerges in all this. After the first round of talks at the Sattahip naval base an illusion was created to the effect that the LTTE had eschewed separatism altogether.

When the second round of talks at the Rose Garden Resort concluded, it was projected that the Tigers were prepared to enter the realm of electoral politics and even contest polls soon. Now the third round in Oslo has ended. Again an unreal impression is being conveyed that both sides have accepted a federal solution as the viable alternative to both the unitary state as well as a separate Tamil state.

Much as one would like to believe in all this feel good news, the reality seems to be quite different. Even though the euphoria surrounding the peace process inhibits critical evaluation some effort at least is necessary to examine what may possibly be another false dawn.

No clear decision

The optimism generated in Oslo requires a reality check. In the first place the Oslo talks have not resulted in a clear and unambiguous decision to accept a federal solution as the viable alternative to both the unitary and separate state concepts. The best proof of this lies in the official Norwegian communique itself.

The key word applicable to the much flaunted agreement at Oslo is "explore." The communique explicitly states that both sides have agreed only to "explore a solution founded on the principle of internal self-determination in areas of historical habitation of the Tamil speaking people based on a federal structure within a united Sri Lanka."

Back to basics first. The Oxford Reference Dictionary provides three meanings to the word explore;

1. To travel extensively through (a country etc.) in order to learn or discover about it; 2. to inquire into; 3. to examine by touch;

It is clear therefore that explore does not mean acceptance or agreement of any sort. In this case the parties concerned are definitely going to pursue the exploratory path towards a federal solution. Yet there is no clear cut guarantee that the final destination will  definitely  be reached.

Judging from the appointment of a sub-committee to oversee political matters,  the imminent objective seems to be examining and studying various constitutional models of the federal kind all over the world first.

Despite Professor Peiris's assertion that a new constitution is on the cards there seems no immediate prospect of a draft being publicised. What seems likely is for the parties concerned particularly the LTTE to travel extensively to different countries and "learn, discover, examine or inquire into" power sharing arrangements and federal models. This then is the crux of the Oslo agreement if the operative word is 'explore.'

It is also important to note that both sides are only paying lip service to the federal concept at the moment. There is no visible effort to market it to their respective constituencies. This is understandable because there is no finished product on the table yet. Only an agreement to explore the possibilities of evolving such a product. Nevertheless it is possible to detect conflicting positions here.

The United National Party (UNP) has been a staunch proponent of the unitary constitution so far. It would be a sea change for a government dominated by that party to propagate the federal concept in a big way right now. On the other hand the LTTE has been claiming moral high ground among the Tamils on account of its steadfast commitment to Eelam. The Tigers have died and killed for it. Fellow militant outfits have been exterminated and respected moderate political leaders assassinated on the charge of betraying the Tamil eelam cause. So the LTTE too is compelled to adopt a low key approach on this at this point of time.

Wishful thinking

A spirit of exuberant optimism seems to have pervaded the Sri Lankan atmosphere. Some notables are in rapturous ecstasy about the 'f-word' in Sri Lankan politics - federalism - becoming the centrepiece of a negotiated settlement. This capacity for wishful thinking and propensity for self-delusion is indeed remarkable. The notorious track record of previous attempts at ethnic reconciliation starting from the controversial "Sinhala-Tamil Pact" of 1925 at "Mahendra Giri" the Velanai residence of Sir Waithilingam Doraiswamy to that of the "GL-Neelan" devolution package presented by Chandrika Kumaratunga are stark reminders of this sorry past.

While hope springs eternally in the human breast it is astounding that people could be blind to this trail of failed attempts and wax eloquent on a federal solution. Much of this jubiliation contrived or otherwise could evaporate in the future as the decision to 'explore' does not automatically guarantee ultimate success. Given the track  record of past negotiating efforts, there is every possibility of a conclusive agreement being an elusive commodity.

Indian Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal touched on this point succinctly during his recent Sri Lankan visit when he compared the ongoing negotiations to a 100 metre sprint. Sibal told journalists in Colombo "you have to run the 100 metres. Right at the start, or after one metre, you cannot say the race is over. Let us see. At the end of the race, we will pronounce." In short Sibal's perspective was that it was premature to predict the outcome of the so called peace process.

The optimism emanating from Oslo cannot eliminate the  possibility of subsequent 'exploration' hitting a number of snags in the future. Besides the decision to pursue  federalism is by no means coherent or definitive. It is somewhat vague in detail and lends itself to an appearance of ambiguity.

What has evolved in Norway is only an overall statement of intent to explore a federal solution without any specific note of unit or substance. When discussions on the knitty-gritty issues commence the whole exercise may reach a deadlock.

As far as the unit of federalism is concerned it is not known whether the entire northern and eastern provinces would form a single entity. If so the position of Muslim and Sinhala communities in that unit is unclear. Since the proviso states any structure reached must be acceptable to all communities no solution could be imposed on unwilling sections.

On the other hand it seems highly unlikely that the LTTE would accept a de-merged north-east or a 'moth eaten unit' if the Muslims and Sinhalese are provided with alternative arrangements.

Three areas

There is also the substance aspect. Former Indian envoy to Colombo and ex foreign secretary Jyotindra Nath Dixit when interviewed by the BBC pointed out three areas of possible disagreement. They were in finance, lands and law and order. These could cause much friction in seeking a mutually acceptable structure. He also said that the Muslim factor  had to be resolved.

Apart from these there are other problems too. One is whether the recognition of self-determination, internal or otherwise in a federal structure would be acceptable to the southern Sinhala polity. There is doubt also whether a Sinhala consensus could evolve on federalism. There is a strong majoritarian viewpoint that the unitary status should remain.

The word 'federalism' itself is a  dirty  word in Sinhala perception with negative connotations. Rightly or wrongly it has been perceived as an euphemism for secession. It may be recalled that the devolution proposals of President Chandrika Kumaratunga as drafted by Professor G. L. Peiris envisaged the island's unitary constitution being changed to a "union of regions." This was because the concept of federalism was regarded as being obnoxious to the south. So the word federalism was deliberately avoided. A monumental effort preferably bi-partisan is needed to sell the 'f-word' to the south.

Back to square one scenario

Therefore if a formal federal scheme incorporating the right of internal self-determination could not be formulated there is every chance that the LTTE could call it quits. Then everything could be back to square one. The LTTE position on this was enunciated by its Leader Velupillai Prabhakaran on November 27 at the "Maaveerar Naal" (Great Heroes' Day) public rally in Puthukudiyiruppu. Prabhakaran indicated a willingness to seek a federal solution in his annual address. He said the LTTE was prepared to accept a federal solution that enshrined the principle of internal self-determination, if the Sinhala polity was not prepared to grant that the LTTE would have no choice other than to exercise the right of external self-determination and pursue the goal of secession he warned.

The LTTE leader sought to rationalise his current political approach in the following manner. "As a distinct people the Tamils are entitled to the right to self-determination. The right to self-determination has two aspects; internal and external. The internal self-determination, entitles a people to self-rule. The Tamil people want to live in freedom and dignity in their own lands, in their historically constituted traditional lands without the domination of external forces. They want to protect their national identity pursuing the development of their language, culture and economy. They want to live in their homeland under a system of self-rule. This is the political aspiration of our people. This constitutes the essential meaning of internal self-determination. We are prepared to consider favourably a political framework that offers substantial regional autonomy and self-government in our homeland on the basis of our right to internal self-determination. But if our people's right to self-determination is denied and our demand for regional self-rule is rejected we have no alternative other than to secede and form an independent state."

Direct appeal

Continuing further Prabhakaran appealed directly to the Sinhala people. "The Sinhalese people should not oppose the Tamils' aspirations to manage their own affairs under a system of self-rule in their own homeland. It is the politics of the Sinhala nation that will eventually determine whether the Sinhalese could peacefully co-exist with the Tamils or to compel the Tamils to secede. If the Sinhala chauvinistic forces, for their own petty political reasons scuttle this peace effort, the Tamil people will be compelled to pursue the path of secession and political independence," he stated.

In that context the formal declaration by the LTTE in Oslo to explore a federal solution was only a logical follow up to Prabhakaran's earlier declaration in the Wanni. Nevertheless it seems unambiguously transparent that the LTTE was not going to accept anything less than this as a viable alternative to Tamil eelam. Also while exploring a federal solution the LTTE may very well push for a confederal set up which in turn could pose problems for the government. So if the south is not able to deliver a substantive federal or confederal scheme the entire exploratory project could go kaput.

Another aspect not to be lost sight of is the deep emotional attachment towards Tamil eelam by LTTE Supremo Prabhakaran and most Tiger cadres. In spite of professed intentions to seek a federal solution the thirst for Tamil eelam  may prove unquenchable. If so, the Tigers could manipulate the course of the negotiating process to a point of impasse. There are some observers who suspect that the LTTE's quest for federalism is only a tactical ploy.

If the future confirms this suspicion then there is no doubt that the peace process would reach an impasse. Against this backdrop it does seem extremely premature for those desiring a federal solution to envelope themselves in optimistic euphoria. While a federal or confederal settlement is the best solution available there is no reason to exult at a time when only an exploratory phase has commenced.

It is a long, long way to federalism and despite our hearts being there the reality is that we just ain't there yet.

A case for psycho analysis

By Frederica Jansz

The Criminal Investigations Department (CID) is to question the editor of the Lakmina newspaper over an article it published last Sunday alleging there is a conspiracy within the SLFP to assassinate President Chandrika Kumaratunga.

The newspaper article alleged that a top SLFPer together with Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and another top UNPer have planned to kill the President. On Wednesday,  December 18, Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapakse lodged a complaint with the CID requesting a full police investigation into the conspiracy theory. An SLFP central committee meeting was also called the same day and the matter discussed. Meanwhile two senior psychologists who requested anonymity pointed out that President Chandrika Kumaratunga's paranoia over a probable assassination attempt on her life, could be linked to a paranoid personality disorder. They said the symptoms by which such a disorder could be identified is a pervasive distrust and suspiciousness of others such that their motives are interpreted as malevolent, beginning by early adulthood and present in a variety of contexts.

Some aspects common to an individual afflicted with paranoid personality disorder is suspicion, without sufficient basis, that others are exploiting, harming, or deceiving him or her. The individual could also be preoccupied with unjustified doubts about the loyalty or trustworthiness of friends or associates. The doctors said that such persons also read hidden demeaning or threatening meanings into benign remarks or events and persistently bears grudges, is unforgiving of insults , injuries or slights, perceives attacks on his or her character or reputation that are not apparent to others, and is quick to react angrily or to counter-attack.

He or she could also have recurrent suspicions without justification, regarding fidelity of spouse or sexual partner. The disorder, they explained does not occur exclusively during the course of schizophrenia, a mood disorder with psychotic features, or another psychotic disorder and is not due to the direct physiological effects or a general medical condition.

The Diagnostic And Statistical Manual Of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (American Psychiatric Association) has stated that excessive talking, leading to inappropriate self-disclosure and social friction; inability to spend time alone; attention seeking and overly dramatic expression of emotions; reckless excitement seeking; inappropriate attempts to dominate and control others are other dimensions common to this disorder. The manual refers to specific affects which are hypersensitivity, hypervigilance, fearfulness, suspiciousness, persecutory anxiety, quiet hostility, emotional aloofness and restraint, coldness, tenseness, seriousness.

The behavioural attitude of such an individual borders on idiosyncratic fantasies, difficulty in handling stress, conflict with superiors, unwillingness to compromise, argumentative, stubbornness, defensiveness, deviousness, deceptions, disloyalty and maliciousness. 

In Cognitive Therapy Of Personality Disorders, psychoanalysts Aaron T. Beck,  Arthur Freeman and associates list typical beliefs associated with each specific personality disorder. Here are some of the typical beliefs that they have listed for paranoid personality disorder: "I cannot trust other people. Other people have hidden motives.

I have to be on guard at all times. It isn't safe to confide in other people. People will take advantage of me if I give them the chance. Other people will deliberately try to demean me. I will be in serious trouble if I let other people think they can get away with mistreating me. If other people find out things about me, they will use them against me."

Because persons with paranoid personality disorder are hyperalert, they notice any slight and may take offense where none is intended. As a result, they tend to be defensive and antagonistic. When they are at fault, they cannot accept blame, not even mild criticism. Yet they are highly critical of others. Other people may say that these individuals make 'mountains out of molehills.'

Persons with paranoid personality disorder are hypersensitive. They are keenly aware of power and rank. They expect trickery and disloyalty from other people. And then they try to avoid all surprises by anticipating them. In an interview people will be intense and guarded and overly serious. They have difficulty expressing warm emotions and tolerating feeling anything that is being dependent on another person. Including feelings of being dependent on the clinician. They will often seize upon irrelevant details to confirm suspicions. And what happens is that paranoid people generally do not see the forest for the trees. Individuals with this disorder are typically suspicious, envious, hypersensitive and argumentative. In terms of the Sri Lankan constitution, an unstable mental condition is grounds for impeachment.

LTTE displays strategic
flexibility on federalism

By D.B.S. Jeyaraj

The decision announced in Oslo on December 5 to pursue a federal solution has generated much euphoria both within and outside Sri Lanka. An important if not the sole reason for this optimism is the willingness shown by the LTTE to explore a federal structure instead of its original separatist demand.

The Tigers have waged an intensive armed struggle for over 25 years and have lost more than 17,500 of their cadres. The LTTE has also systematically executed Tamil leaders opting for a political settlement along federal lines within a united Sri Lanka in the past.

Amazing shift

Moreover it was widely believed that LTTE Supremo, Velupillai Prabhakaran was deeply committed to the goal of a separate state - Tamil eelam. Against that backdrop the LTTE seeming to opt for federalism now was indeed amazing. This flexibility appeared all the more bewildering because the LTTE's Chief Political Strategist, Anton Balasingham and other Tiger personalities have been stating that the movement is at a relatively strong politico-military situation at present. Balasingham even compared the LTTE to the USA and claimed that both have attained pre-eminence in their respective spheres due to military prowess and superiority.

According to the LTTE, they have entered negotiations from a position of strength vis a vis Colombo. Strangely enough, the LTTE's performance at the negotiating table so far has been uncharacteristically soft. It has driven no hard bargains. In fact, it has been extremely flexible on most matters.

An important if not the only reason for the Norway facilitated peace process to reach this stage is the positive accommodativeness of the Tigers. In sharp contrast to the rhetoric spouted by the Tigers earlier, the LTTE has been eminently reasonable during talks.

The LTTE has not pressed issues like recognition of the core principles originally enunciated at Thimpu, the north-eastern interim administrative council and even the proposed Joint Task Force (JTF) for rehabilitation, resettlement and reconstruction. Instead, the LTTE has so far accepted lesser arrangements like the subcommittees and now agreed to explore a federal solution.

Many analysts of the Sri Lankan political scene are somewhat perplexed by this LTTE approach. Why have the Tigers seemingly turned into pussy cats? One answer supported by many would be the international factor. In 2000, the LTTE reached its military zenith as well as political nadir.

The LTTE regained the Wanni, toppled Elephant Pass and knocked on the gates of Jaffna. Yet, they were unable to proceed further because the international community rallied around Colombo. The Tigers were told implicitly 'this far and no more.'

Isolated

It dawned on the Tigers then that battlefield valour alone was not enough and that they were isolated internationally. A further dimension was added by the increasing tendency of Western nations to label the LTTE as terrorists. It was to remedy this situation that the LTTE launched a peace offensive. This offensive's objective was not the logical conclusion of a peaceful settlement. Instead, the Tigers hoped to expose the Sri Lankan state as being unable and unwilling to redress and accommodate Tamil grievances and aspirations within a united but not necessarily a unitary Sri Lanka.

In order to succeed in this bold venture, it was mandatory for the Tigers to participate fully in the peace process. The LTTE commitment, however, was towards the process but not perhaps to a final constitutional settlement. The Tigers despite some problems and tensions have been consistently plugging this line so far. The remarkable flexibility and understanding shown in Thailand and Norway can be attributed to the overall strategy behind the LTTE's peace offensive.

Despite the optimistic glow emanating from Oslo about the quest for federalism an emerging view among some observers is that the LTTE, while going through the motions of seeking federalism, will actually want the entire exercise to fail. The proponents of this viewpoint cannot be dismissed easily as enemies of peace and brushed aside. It warrants greater scrutiny.

A crucial, underlying factor in this assessment is the emotional and wholehearted dedication to Tamil Eelam by the Tiger hierarchy. There are serious misgivings about the bona fides of the LTTE and its leader about the intention of being prepared to renounce Tamil eelam in favour of federalism.

At the first ever Maaveerar Naal (great heroes day) observance on November 27, 1989, he stated publicly that his cadres could gun him down if he ever committed "thurogam" (treachery) to the "ilatchiyam" (ideal) of Tamil eelam. Twelve years later on April 10, Prabhakaran held a press conference in Kilinochchi. An Indian journalist referred to this statement and pointedly asked what his stance was on the issue. A smiling Prabhakaran answered clearly and unhesitatingly that the position was still the same.

Political ploy

Yet the same LTTE leader is now amenable to jettisoning Tamil eelam or so it seemed. Perplexing as it seems other indicators suggested that the LTTE had not revised its fundamental objectives but only engaged in a tactical shift as a political ploy. An illuminating example in this respect was Prabhakaran ending his speech this year too with the customary slogan in Tamil "Puligalin thagam Thamil eelath thayagam" (the thirst of the Tigers is the Tamil eelam motherland).

In a significant move, the English text of the speech released to the media omitted this reference. The inference from this was that while Prabakharan was pursuing a federal solution, his emotional commitment to separatism remained. If so, then the LTTE game plan seems clear.

The proclaimed intention of seeking a federal solution is only for international consumption. What the Tigers tacitly desire is for the negotiating process to fail at some stage without any blame attached to them. The peace process should not arrive at a negotiated settlement. Instead it should collapse without a satisfactory federal solution being structured.

If and when that happens, the LTTE could opt out and exercise its 'right of external self-determination' and pursue a 'secessionist war' again. Pinpointing the failure of Colombo to arrive at a federal solution, the Tigers would assert that the Sinhala people were incapable of redressing and accommodating Tamil grievances and aspirations within a united Sri Lanka.

In order to ensure the failure of the Sri Lankan polity in formulating an acceptable federal structure the LTTE is apparently engaging in a two-pronged strategy. On the one hand the LTTE is indulging in controversial actions like expanding its parallel structures of police stations, courts, etc., in the Tamil areas. This causes much tension in the south and embarrasses Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe immensely.

Exploiting differences

Politically weakened Wickre-mesinghe would find it difficult to devolve full federalism. This in turn could be cited as an excuse to exit from the talks. On the other hand, some LTTE critics have opined that the Tigers are deliberately exploiting the deep differences between the United National Front government and the opposition People's Alliance led by President Chandrika Kumaratunga.

Any federal scheme to succeed needs a bi-partisan southern consensus. By encouraging a confrontational course, the Tigers are allegedly preventing southern unity. The Tigers want to abort any possible Sinhala agreement on federalism, it is argued. Further evidence of this approach became available in Oslo itself on December 7, barely two days after the December 5 accord.

Addressing a 'great hero commemoration' meeting in Oslo, LTTE Chief Negotiator Anton Balasingham made it clear that the Tigers were not expecting the south to deliver on federalism. Highlighting the political divisions in the south, he gloated that it was an impossible task for the Sinhala people to agree on this and boasted that the Tigers had placed the ball in the Sinhala court and that it was now left to the south to respond.

The LTTE, however, was not worried about the Sinhala state defaulting on the promise of federalism, said Balasingham. The time when Tamils under the Gandhian S.J.V. Chelvanayagam demanded federalism was gone. Now it was Prabhakaran 's "kalam " (period).

The LTTE was not relying on non-violence but on heavy weapons. If Colombo deceived the Tamils again, the consequences would be terrible. As such, the Tigers were not only unconcerned about being deceived by the Sinhalese, but in fact welcomed such deception, Balasingham opined.

No commitment

What came through was that the LTTE, instead of being concerned about a scenario where Colombo was unable to deliver federalism, was actually wanting it to fail. The emerging political scenario shows, therefore, that the LTTE's willingness to opt for federalism is essentially a tactical shift without the underpinnings of any serious commitment to a federal state.

The genuine commitment is for Tamil eelam. By demonstrating a remarkable degree of flexibility the LTTE seeks to prove its sincerity in seeking a solution short of separation. The calculation in the long term is that the powers that be in Colombo should not be able to evolve a satisfactory federal solution. At the opportune time, the LTTE would cite this as sufficient cause for reverting back to its original position.

In the short term, the LTTE hopes to gain certain advantages through this tactical shift. In the political battle between President Kumaratunga and Premier Wickremesinghe, the Tigers prefer the latter. With Kumaratunga now having the power to dissolve parliament, it is in the interests of the LTTE to help prop up Wickremesinghe as far as possible. In that context, preserving the peace process is a necessity.

The readiness to drop separatism and opt for federalism would help maintain and consolidate the negotiating process. Also, if fresh elections are called, this cooperative attitude of the LTTE is expected to boost Wickremesinghe as opposed to Kumaratunga. Secondly, both the UNF government and the LTTE have a common interest in procuring a substantial quantum of international financial assistance for rehabilitation, reconstruction and development. The Tigers hope to be in charge of such functions in the Tamil areas.

Greater confidence

The international donor community, however, desires greater progress of the peace process before allocating vast sums of money. Greater confidence in the peace negotiations are necessary. The path breaking declaration of seeking federalism bestows more credibility to the peace process. Thus, the chances of increased aid being available in the future are brighter.

Thirdly, the LTTE is also on the road to international legitimacy. It wants the 'terrorist' label affixed to it by countries like the USA, Britain, Canada and Australia, etc. removed. As a first step it wants some kind of tacit acceptance. The presence of US Deputy Secretary of State, Richard Armitage and British Overseas Development Minister, Claire Short at the Oslo development summit addressed by Anton Balasingham is projected in LTTE media as a great "victory."

Now the LTTE wants to visit countries that have banned it to study the federal models of government available there. Balasingham stated this explicitly to his Tamil audience in Oslo. There was much applause when he said in Tamil "kathavaith thiranthu vidayya" (open the doors for us). By visiting officially to study "federalism," the LTTE hopes to strengthen its case for de-proscription in these countries.

Under these circumstances, the LTTE's decision to explore a federal structure at this juncture does not seem to be motivated by a genuine reorientation of its political goals and approaches. On the contrary, the LTTE seems to be displaying strategic flexibility for different reasons. The Tigers are engaging in a tactical shift with both short and long term objectives while retaining its basic ideological moorings.

On course for a permanent peace accord?

We have seen hectic activity on the peace front for nearly three months this year, first in Thailand on two occasions and about a fortnight ago in Norway, whereby a determined search is being made by the two warring factions to find an everlasting solution to our near 20 year ethnic conflict with the help of the international community led by Norway, a country that was favoured by both previous governments and this one, and the LTTE, too.

With the combined efforts of all with the backing of mighty powers such as the USA, UK and Japan, including the backing and goodwill of over another 40 countries, will it succeed this time round to produce the much desired result to our strife ridden nation until the end of last year?

There has been a silver lining since then and could this be sustained in the coming year or the next for a lasting peace that the country desperately seeks to get on with the business of life and living for its people away from a pernicious war?

Let us not forget that over 60,000 lives have been lost in nearly two decades including over 20,000 servicemen, even a greater number of the latter, injured and disabled, with rehabilitation and reconstruction costs estimated at over $ 700 million in the north and east alone, and an economy in tatters where we registered less than zero growth last year for the first time in our history since independence, something of a record perhaps here too, in comparison to the Asian region!

We have got to make it work this time for, if we opt for war, the consequences can be far more serious than we could ever imagine. Let me be specific on this issue. In the last 19 years, upto end December this year we spent nearly Rs. 500 billion in 11 years from 1983 to 1994 and a further approximately Rs. 600 billion in seven years from 1995 to 2002, making a grand total of over Rs. 1000 billion expenditure on the war.

What did we achieve despite the death and destruction; a somewhat stable government in the east but without the writ of authority of the government in the north during the earlier period (1983 to 1994), and a somewhat stable government in the northern peninsula but without the writ of authority of the state in the east except in the town areas of Trincomalee, Batticoloa and Amparai, during the latter period (1995 to 2002).

You will agree with me that, for the human effort in lives and the financial outlay over the years, there is little or nothing to write home or shout about.

Today, the position is no different, although with a MoU on a ceasefire in place for very nearly an year, we have allocated approx. Rs. 60 billion for this year preparing for a war and if this state of alert is to be maintained, having to put aside Rs. 50 billion every year as is the case for 2003.

However, we have to face the very grim reality that, if peace talks collapse this time, which I believe steadfastly will be our last attempt with the LTTE, for reasons given below, then we will on our hands the most expensive war having to set aside Rs. 100 billion per year for a protracted fight to a finish where both sides have had plenty of time (one year) to take stock of each other to polish off the rough edges as they are now doing during the cessation of hostilities. That is one aspect; then there is the problem of fighting men and women for both sides.

The army has failed in the numbers game if one were to go by recruitment figures in the past few months when they could manage to enlist less than 500 out of 5000 wanted, mind you, without a war on, and the LTTE scouting around for 15 to 17 year olds to supplement their strengths much to the chagrin and consternation of their parents. Whilst both sides are scraping the bottom of the barrel, one in an orthodox fashion and the other decidedly not, the state will be compelled to seriously look at conscription or voluntary service whether it is politically unwise or damaging to do so.

Finally, if war were to erupt, we can say good-bye to tourism, foreign investment and aid, reconstruction, etc; and the imposition overnight virtually of road blocks, checkpoints and more High Security Zones (HSZ) throughout the country. This is not fantasy or fiction on the part of the writer but cold, hard facts.

A microscopic few in the Sinhala south may be inclined to believe that if the war can be won, it might be worth the effort despite the costs, inconvenience and human tragedies but are we sure of a lasting and durable peace at the expense of a subdued minority community in one third of our land area, who would stir once more if denied the privilege of living a style of their own to suit their culture, traditions, way of life, customs, religion, etc.

This brings me to the alternative before us, and the only one available viz, negotiating for peace rather than fighting it which was tried by the previous regime without any success except for holding a piece of real state in the Jaffna peninsula of less than 1000 square kms, which requires over 30,000 men of the army, approximately one forth of their total battle strength, to safeguard it!

The colossal waste of say, half of the Rs. 1000 billion spent in 20 years of ethnic strife, if measured in terms of our gigantic Mahaveli scheme of the late 1970s of approximately Rs. 50 billion, would have resulted in 10 such development projects being undertaken for the future generations of our countrymen and women by 2003.

It is in this backdrop that this writer is vigorously advocating we grasp this last chance for peace, which will probably not surface again for another 10 years or so, until the two parties to the dispute are so badly battered and bruised without a penny in the kitty, that they may have to be dragged to an international conference table if the two parties resign themselves once more to seek outside help.

The way things are going on the peace front these latter thoughts of doom and gloom can recede to the background because of the "paradigm shift" of the LTTE as enunciated by our senior minister after the most recent dialogue this month in Oslo. From their top line of eelam to the bottom line of federalism, which latter position my southern colleagues should have the patience to, accept until the 'I's have been dotted and the 'T's have been crossed but could be rejected by them if too much has been conceded at the referendum which the Prime Minister has promised us.

Having said that, and if we were to reject the final product before or after it is announced, then it behoves us to comprehend how the international community would look at it and their likely reactions as a result.

The whole world is probably behind us as never before in our efforts to usher in a permanent peace, as was witnessed late last month when over 40 countries assembled in Oslo to pledge support for our endeavours, the biggest ever international contingent representing nearly a quarter of the planet to assist one small country of less than 20 million people, something that we Sri Lankans can crow about for years and years to come.

Yet, they must be dismayed by the fact that simultaneously, a team of ex-ministers from the previous regime led by the brother of our head of state was in New Delhi to discuss with the powers that be, including the big-wigs of chief opposition party whose late leader was assassinated by the LTTE, trying to stir up debate/dissent in that country (a visit is due in Tamil Nadu to meet the chief minister there) to thwart the efforts of the international community, more particularly Norway's lead role to bring about a lasting solution.

To cap it all, there was that private sealed missive from our big chief to their big chief, the contents of which nothing has been heard about. A reply would certainly be forthcoming, if not already received, but me - thinks it will be in the familiar refrain from Delhi over the years that 'any solution must be within the framework of a sovereign and united Sri Lanka...' or words to that effect.

Perhaps, with federalism now being bandied about an added dimension might be '...as long as the structure or the format does not exceed the powers extended to a federal state in India, we have no qualms about it in the north and east.' Probably, this message has already been conveyed by India's Foreign Secretary during his whirlwind visit to Sri Lanka last week, in response to the visit and letter of the opposition team, and it also probably explains why one of them has already left on a long sojourn to the USA for about three weeks or so.

Really, there is nothing more to be done, except here in Sri Lanka, after that diplomatic snub by India. The world is not only aghast at the antics of the two main opposition parties here acting the way they are doing to undermine the peace process whilst claiming that they are not against it, without a mandate from even a quarter of our people, but also the attempts being made by them to form a parallel government by issuing directives from the topmost secretariat from time to time to belittle and hamper the efforts of the head of government.

Looking at the picture in Sri Lanka and unfolding events here, the international community must also be quite perturbed by the harangue against the approach by the two parties to the dispute to a federal solution to our problem which has their total acceptance except for a microscopic few in our country who are opposed to power sharing at the periphery.

The LTTE having come down a few pegs from the original concept of a separate state down to a federal structure, the outlines yet to be defined in the next few rounds of talks next year and beyond perhaps, we will have no more space to move or manoeuvre, and if it were to be rejected by Sri Lanka outright when all is said and done. This writer believes that we will have to carry the tag of an international outcast. What would be far worse is that international sympathy will move away from us to the LTTE, where the latter would be gleefully telling them, 'we told you so.'

The Sinhala government cannot be "trusted" as it was seen in the 1950s and '60s, to "substantially devolve power to the north and the east" in the words of, none other than the US Ambassador in Sri Lanka, less than three months ago. If it is isolation we require, with no one to lend a helping hand and an empty treasure chest, the cacophonous opposition is dishing out the recipe in good measure.

- Air Vice Marshal
H. Goonetileke

Festive spirit invades the city of Colombo

By Ranee Mohamed

THIS is the festive season and it is just not shopping and Christmas that will take the spotlight. Lights will illuminate the city and brilliance, happiness and peace will be the theme in this season of goodwill.

Top hoteliers, however, have chosen a shorter route to the heart via the stomach and that is why, in addition to the lights, there will be a food fiesta that will add flavour to this season.

A cascade of colour

Green Path will turn into a cascade of colour this week as 'Hawker's Street' serves up an array of food from top hotels in Colombo.

"As the city gets more and more active, we decided to serve the people with good cuisine," said General Manager, Galadari Hotel, Chandra Mohotti, who is one of the pioneers of the Hawker's Street project.

"This is the brainchild of the mayor," explained Mohotti, who went on to say that during a conversation with Sri Lankan bornEuropean Union Parliamen-tarian Niranjan Deva Aditya, they realised that the city was not lit up as it should be.

"Now the city is safe, there is peace. I sincerely believe that this peace is the best thing that happened to us and I also believe the Prime Minister's thoughts are to make Sri Lanka as dazzling and as beautiful as Thailand and Singapore. I think this festive season is the best time to start," pointed out Mohotti.

Value for money

"The five star hotels will be supplying the food to Hawker's Street and this food fiesta will give value for money and good clean food to fun-seekers and those who are shopping. But we hope that other restaurant owners and smaller hotels will take over from us," he said.

The Galadari Hotel will have an abundant array of Arabic food while the Lanka Oberoi will concentrate on Sri Lankan food.

Mohotti also observed that his hotel is crowded with many visitors from overseas.

"Tourists have increased and so have Sri Lankans who have come home on holiday," he observed. "This is the best Christmas I have ever had," said Mohotti whose hotel has seen a few bad periods during the war.

While the city of Colombo will be lit up, Greenpath will be sending out the aroma that will complete the festive spirit. The change comes after the recent peace, which the nation was starving for.

General Manager, Taj Samudra, Praveen Nair who has been a hotelier in several parts of the world said that he is amazed at the activity around.

"The Taj is fully involved in this Hawker's Street and will be supplying several food items. This is more in line with the Hawker's Street in Singapore and it is amazing to see all this success," he observed.

Big plans

"If it goes on like this I don't see any problem in Sri Lanka getting back on its feet. Sri Lanka is really doing well and we are so happy to see not only so many tourists, but businessmen too. We have big plans this year and we are turning the rooftop to a ballroom," he confided.

General Manager, Continental Hotel, Anil Jayamanne speaking of the excitement around said that their hotel was the worst affected during the war, in that the access road was closed.

"It is strange, but our theme for 2002 has been peace and now I see peace all around," pointed out Jayamanne. "We are having more guests and more functions. I see more tourists. Ours is mainly a business hotel and it has been full for many days," he said.

Narmada Muller of the Lanka Oberoi speaking on behalf of the hotel said that the Oberoi is in a real "upbeat mood. The hotel is more crowded and many Sri Lankans seem to be patronising the restaurants," she observed. "Our Sri Lankan cuisine at Hawker's Street will be truly value for money. This is a new thing and it shows that peace has really caught on. The hotel is busy and people seem to be totally in a mood," she said.

Touring the city

Colombo Mayor Prasanna Gunewardena speaking to The Sunday Leader said that Hawker's Street is for all and that during this week, the business community will also be touring the city of Colombo together with many Sri Lankans who have come back to Sri Lanka from overseas.

"They will be able to see that peace and the festive spirit have truly returned," he said. "It is Christmas time and the festive atmosphere is truly around."

"It is very different from the barriers and the uncertainty that we have experienced," he said. He was speaking of the times when people were reluctant to go out, not so long ago.

Today, it is not only Hawker's Street that will see business booming. "It is festive time and more and more people will be making offers to consumers," pointed out the Mayor, who seemed to have big plans to make the city of Colombo see the peace it truly deserves after a very long time.

Hawker's Street will serve kotthu roti, hoppers, Chinese, Mongolian, Malaysian, Korean and Sri Lankan food too. All five star hotels are expected to make their specialities available at Hawker's Street.

Beginning December 20, from 7 p.m. onwards, Hawker's Street will not only have food but also entertainment including Christmas carols performed by service bands.

Gender dimensions of peace processes (Part 2)

Today, Ms. carries the second instalment of the report of the UN Secretary General on women, peace and security. This article reflects our continuing interest in and support for peace in this country.

Women are also victims of detention or ‘disappearance.’ The ‘disappearance’ of male relatives affects women, in particular in societies where their status is directly linked to their relationships with men. Women are traumatised and cannot find comfort as long as they still hope for the return of their relatives. They also face additional responsibilities for the well-being of their families.

Women and girls are not only victims in armed conflict: they are also active agents. Driven by commitment to the political, religious or economic goals of the conflict, some women become armed combatants or collude in acts of violence. Women and girls may also be forced into armed forces, providing domestic services and/or being used as sexual slaves. Women play an active role in informal peace processes, serving as peace activists, including by organising and lobbying for disarmament and striving to bring about reconciliation and security before, during and after conflicts.

Specific responses

The differential impact of conflict on women and girls calls for specific responses from the international community. While the knowledge about these gender-based differences and inequalities is increasing rapidly, it is still far from being comprehensive. Of much greater concern, however, is the failure to incorporate existing knowledge on the subject into policies, planning and implementation processes in all peace operations, humanitarian activities and reconstruction efforts.

The following is submitted for the attention of the Security Council:

Action 1. - Recognise the extent of the violations of the human rights of women and girls during armed conflict and ensure that awareness of these violations is a factor in planning and implementation of all peace support operations.

Action 2. - Identify and utilise local sources of information on the impact of armed conflict, the impact of interventions of peace operations on women and girls and the roles and contributions of women and girls in conflict situations, including through the establishment of regular contact with women’s groups and networks.

International legal framework

International law provides a framework of protection for individuals affected by armed conflict. International humanitarian law, in particular the four Geneva Conventions of 1949 for the protection of victims of war and their two additional Protocols of 1977, is the area of law of primary relevance to the protection of women and girls during armed conflict. International human rights law is also applicable in times of armed conflict. International refugee law offers protection to women and girls prior to, during and in the aftermath of armed conflict. International criminal law has come to assume increasing significance in relation to crimes against women and girls during armed conflict, in particular crimes of sexual violence.

The protections of international humanitarian law and human rights law apply on the basis of non-discrimination. In addition, some of the provisions of international humanitarian law are of particular relevance to women, such as those seeking to reduce women’s vulnerability to sexual violence. Other provisions are only applicable to women, for example, those requiring treatment of women with all consideration due to their sex. Additional protection is provided to pregnant women and mothers of young children.

The protections available under international human rights law apply to women and girls on the basis of non-discrimination. Key human rights instruments include the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women, which specifically addresses trafficking, and the exploitation of prostitution of women, a frequent occurrence in situations of conflict and their aftermath. Trafficking is comprehensively covered by the United Nations Convention against Transnational Organised Crime and its supplementary protocols, which have not yet entered into force. Girls benefit from the specific protections for children set out in instruments such as the Convention on the Rights of the Child and its optional protocols on the sale of children, child prostitution and child pornography and on the involvement of children in armed conflict.

Expanded legal framework

During the last decade, the international legal framework has expanded to address some of the particular crimes experienced by women in armed conflict. The statutes of the two international tribunals created by the Security Council to address crimes committed in the former Yugoslavia and in Rwanda, the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court and the statute of the Special Court for Sierra Leone all include gender-based violence, such as rape, enforced prostitution and trafficking during armed conflict, as well as torture or other cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment, and enslavement, within the definition of war crimes, crimes against humanity and as components of the crime of genocide. Other extra-legal mechanisms, such as truth and reconciliation processes, also provide avenues for redress.

The International Tribunals for the former Yugoslavia and for Rwanda have issued several indictments relating to sexual violence. Sexual violence has been charged as a grave breach of the Geneva Convention relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War before the International Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia. The International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda has convicted a defendant of crimes against humanity and genocide, inter alia, through acts of sexual violence.

The constituent documents of the two international tribunals, the International Criminal Court and the Special Court for Sierra Leone include provisions to ensure the delivery of gender sensitive justice, including victim and witness protection measures. The Rome Statute has provisions for achieving fair representation of male and female judges and for ensuring the availability of legal expertise on specific issues such as violence against women and children.

Supplementary policy directives

Protection for refugee and displaced women offered by the international legal framework is supplemented by policy directives and guidelines, which, for the most part, have been formulated by the Office of the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) over the past 15 years. The gender sensitive interpretation of the definition of refugee contained in the Convention relating to the Status of Refugees of 1951 allows for women and girls to seek refugee status on the basis of gender based persecution, including sexual violence. The 1998 Guiding Principals on Internal Displacement also pay particular attention to the rights and needs of women and children.

This comprehensive international legal framework has been increasingly responsive to the experiences of women and girls, particularly where sexual violence is concerned. It is critical that these achievements are built upon by any ad hoc tribunals that the Security Council might create. The determination of individual command responsibility for many of the offences involving sexual violence against women and girls in armed conflict has been a major advance and has undermined the culture of impunity that previously pervaded discussion in this context.

(To be continued)

Source: Report of the Secretary General on Women, Peace and Security (2002), United Nations

• Ministers living it up at public expense

Sa me stink, different flies

By Frederica Jansz

Busy fine-tuning a peace process, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe appears to be ignorant of the fact that certain ministers in the United National Front (UNF) government are feathering their nests with state finances, abusing the perks and privileges awarded to them in their capacity as Minister. People have been called upon to tighten their belts until such time the economic wasteland inherited from President Chandrika Kumaratunga is revived, but that seems applicable only to the suffering masses with ministers continuing to make merry at public expense. This time, The Sunday Leader has found that Irrigation and Water Management Minister, Gamini Jayawickrema has taken for his personal use and that of his cronies, 16 official vehicles handed over to the Mahaweli Authority for project work.

That is not all. Jayawickrema has now sent another shopping list to the Director General, Mahaweli Authority demanding an additional nine new vehicles among which are three super luxury Land Rover Defenders and six Toyota Landcruisers. This lot of vehicles are to be delivered to him on the 31st of this month.

From among the 16 official vehicles, Jayawickrema has fitted out for his personal use a brand new Toyota double cab with trimmings costing the Irrigation and Water Management Ministry nearly Rs. 150,000.

He has had fitted a state-of-the-art hi-fi system with an amplifier and four JBL speakers which the Ministry has been billed to pay Rs. 41,500.

The system was purchased on November 5, this year from Petco Lanka, who are specialists in car audio systems, service and installation.

In addition, Jayawickrema has called upon the Ministry to fork out Rs. 194,350 to Outdoorsman, a company providing accessories and recreational equipment for four wheel drive vehicles.

On December 2, Jayawickrema contracted Outdoorsman to fit on this double cab, four Mickey Thompson Tyres at a cost of Rs. 61,000, four alloy wheels at a cost of Rs. 36,400, one flat top 166 for Rs. 22,500, one front buffer at a cost of Rs. 18,000, one CiBi lights set from Germany for Rs. 19,250, wiring for Rs. 2,700, four gas shock absorbers for Rs. 22,000 and flares for Rs. 12,500. The total cost as a result of these fancy trimmings amount to Rs. 194,350.

In a letter on December 4, to Director General, Mahaweli Authority, P. T. Senaratne, Jayawickrema’s son, Asanka Perera has demanded that these invoices be settled with Ministry funds. Perera has also attached another invoice amounting to Rs. 72,533 which monies have to be paid to Matara Motors, Kurunegala. Nine official vehicles used by cohorts of Jayawickrema have been serviced and repaired at this garage in November for a sum amounting to Rs. 72,533. Asanka Perera functions as private secretary to his father, Gamini Jayawickrema.

Generous ‘donation’

For some unfathomable reason, Jayawickrema has chosen to ‘donate’ two luxury vehicles to a Working Director at Mahaweli Venture Capital (Pvt) Ltd., Shanthini Kongahage, who was abruptly nominated to the board by Jayawickrema. Kongahage picks up a monthly remuneration package of Rs. 25,000 as well as has personal use of two luxury vehicles.

That Sri Lanka is dogged with corrupt politicians is unfortunately a feature common to every ruling political party. In the last seven years, this nation has watched in disgust the antics of the likes of Anuruddha Ratwatte, whom the President herself has described as having been the “most corrupt minister” in her cabinet, but did nothing to match her words with action. This time around Sri Lankans are left to shudder at the juggling of public funds by Ministers like Dr. Jayalath Jayawardena and now Gamini Jayawickrema.

Minister Mahinda Wijesekera is another bad egg in Wickremesinghe’s government. Unable to control his son, Wijesekera has allowed his offspring to issue death threats and physically abuse another youth two weeks ago.

In addition, security personnel attached to Wijesekera killed 28 year old pastor Charles de Rosairo last month when they ran him down at Bauddhaloka Mawatha, Colombo 7. At the time the accident occurred, the security personnel had been providing back-up security to Minister Mahinda Wijesekera who did not stop when the accident happened or come back despite being a mere 50 meters from his official residence when Pastor Charles de Rosairo was knocked down.

MSD Head — No nonsense

Rosairo in fact had to be rushed to the Colombo General Hospital in a three-wheeler where he succumbed to his injuries an hour after being admitted.

Last week, Head of the Ministerial Security Division (MSD), SSP Jayantha Jayasinghe, withdrew 10 security officers allocated to Mahinda Wijesekera following an argument when they had refused to accompany the Minister’s son to a Colombo nightclub. Wijesekera is reported to have verbally abused the security personnel who later complained to Jayasinghe.

The senior cop acted immediately and withdrew the Minister’s security asserting the Minister has no right to demand that MSD personnel provide security for his offspring to patronise city nightclubs.

Pramuka’s tale of woe

By Frederica Jansz

Following the decision to liquidate of Pramuka Savings and Development Bank on Thursday, December 19, Central Bank Governor, A. S. Jayawardena said the first priority of the Central Bank is to pay back the monies of depositors whose savings are below Rs. 50,000.

There is provision he explained, under the Banking Amendment Act of 1995, for the liquidator to take over the assets and dispose of them as deemed fit. Jayawardena reiterated that since almost 80 per cent of Pramuka Bank depositors fall into the savings category of less than Rs. 50,000, the Central Bank will take steps to ensure they are paid, first.

Whatever monies remaining will be used to pay off the others, Jayawardena stated. He asserted that the initial priority of the Central Bank would also be to check on the mortgages of property and ascertain if indeed such lands have been valued over and above market prices.

The Central Bank will seek to sell such properties and recover some of the monies required to pay back depositors. Pramuka Bank held some Rs. 3 billion in deposits.

One of Pramuka Bank’s biggest borrowers, Chairman, Manisha Group of Companies, P. J. A. Fernando, Jayawardena said would be forced to pay back the millions of rupees Pramuka President and CEO Rohan Perera authorised to be released to him with little collateral.

One such instance is a mortgage on ‘Dickman’s Court’ which houses 28 apartments at No. 14, Dickman’s Road, Colombo 4. The apartments have all been sold and leased. The property deed however, remains in the name of Pramuka Holdings with an outstanding of Rs. 6 million due to Pramuka Bank. Fernando and Manisha Group were the developers.

A. S. Jayawardena asserted that Fernando would be summoned to pay these monies back. He said this is one among many other such transactions enacted by Pramuka Bank, which the Central Bank will have to address as it carries out its liquidation notice on the bank.

The Governor in the meantime added that with regard to the situation of some 165 employees of Pramuka Bank, “some have already resigned and others will have to find employment elsewhere.”

He maintained that the Central Bank was attempting to resolve the issue at a meeting with Pramuka Bank employees on Friday, December 20.

Jayawardena said Rohan Perera together with the board of directors will have to take responsibility for certain fraudulent activities committed during their tenure at Pramuka Bank.

The Central Bank, he maintained has already referred the matter to the Criminal Investigations Department (CID) for investigation after which the courts will decide on a conclusion.

Unable to face responsibility for this situation, Rohan Perera remains overseas. Perera left the country despite a notice by the Maligakanda Magistrate’s Court to appear and face charges on corruption and fraud in relation to Pramuka Bank.

The court has not sought to impound the passports of either Rohan Perera or any of the other directors of Pramuka Bank.

Meanwhile, last week, the Deputy General Manager, Administration, Pramuka Bank, Raj Fernando, was caught red-handed as he tried to surreptitiously remove certain documents relating to the payment of gratification through a “Gold Certificate” scheme at Pramuka Bank. Certain public trustee institutions and the Cooperative sector have been the recipients of such gratification amounting to around Rs. 40 million over the last five years.

Fernando was caught in the basement of Pramuka Bank, trying to smuggle out the documents. Such payments had allegedly been authorised by both Fernando and Rohan Perera. The matter has now been referred to the CID for further investigation.