POLITICS

Playing the political chess game

 Inside Politics

By Suranimala

While the President was toying with the idea of a snap election in May, the UNF government went into overdrive last week, mapping out strategy to meet a situation where parliament is dissolved without notice.

Despite a written assurance by President Kumaratunga to parliament she will not dissolve it prematurely, there is now a change of heart, with the PA publicly stating the President no longer considers herself bound to honour that written commitment.

General Secretary, PA, D.M. Jayaratne's logic in this regard is simple. The UNF did not believe the President's written undertaking and as such, she is not obliged to honour it. The President herself has taken the position, the decision by the government to introduce the 19th Amendment to the Constitution subsequent to her written assurance has invalidated the written pledge.

Snap election

These justifications apart, there are compelling personal political factors that are determining the decision to go for a snap election and the government too has been briefed of the thinking at President's House by insiders.

While a majority of PA members themselves are unhappy to face a snap election at this point of time, the motivators for such a gamble are the JVP and Kumaratunga loyalists, Mangala Samaraweera, Sarath Amunugama and Nimal Siripala de Silva.

From the President's point of view, she has only till 2005 to hold on to the office of president and any chance of having the system abolished has to be done before she becomes a lame duck and it is no secret, with each passing day her position is weakened.

An abolition in the absence of a two third majority in parliament can only be achieved through the legally questionable tactic of seeking a people's mandate to draft a new constitution providing for the abolition of the executive presidency through the mechanism of a constituent assembly and that would mean a general election.

With the President having failed to get the UNP's support for her draft constitution in August 2000, she did attempt this strategy at the 2001 general election, where a mandate was sought for the very purpose but failed to secure a simple majority to proceed with this move.

The President is only too aware that sooner rather than later, the PA will have to project its candidate for the 2005 presidential election with the likes of Mahinda Rajapakse and Anura Bandaranaike already bracing themselves to run and if she is to remain the prima donna of the PA, her authority will have to be asserted before the internal agitation to name a candidate raises its head.

For, in such a situation, it is around such a candidate the party machinery will revolve and even if Kumaratunga decides to return to parliament as prime minister or leader of the opposition, she will have to play second fiddle to a possible PA president. With that will also go her leadership of both the SLFP and the PA.

At the same time, the President cannot wait long because with each passing day, the UNF government gets stabilised with the overall economic conditions improving and it is these factors that have got President's House working overtime for a snap poll.

However, given the ground situation today, the President and her loyalists believe, even if a general election is called and an alliance is clinched with the JVP, the possibility of getting a majority under the prevailing proportional representation system is extremely remote, especially with the minorities being completely alienated, moreso due to the alliance with the JVP.

Furthermore, if the JVP is to go into alliance with the SLFP, the Marxists are asking for at least 35 seats in parliament, possibly hoping to settle for around 25 in a final agreement.

Creating public perception

In that overall context, the thinking at President's House is to create a public perception there is a huge swing against the UNF nationally and capitalise on it at a general election to get the required 113 seats in parliament and put in motion the constitutional strategy in the hope a 'friendly' Supreme Court will support it.

And to create this public perception of wide-scale discontentment against the UNF government, the thinking in the President's camp is to first test the waters in a province which is a traditional stronghold of the PA with a strong support base for the JVP as well, the province being the south.

Accordingly, the idea is to first go for a snap provincial council election in alliance with the JVP in the south where the PA is currently in government and win it comfortably, thereby projecting the public perception the UNF is hugely unpopular.

And if that objective is achieved, to follow up with the dissolution of parliament and go for the UNF's jugular.

There is, of course, the added concern of facing an election with the UNF in government and the possibility of sacking Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and running with a minority government in the event of success in the south is also a matter given due consideration.

Questions such as the fate of the peace process and how a new PA-JVP government will handle a possible war situation, rebuild the economy in the face of possible international isolation and the like were not up for consideration in the overall scheme of things, with recapturing power being the singular consideration.

All these factors were not lost on Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe who on Monday, January 27, convened a meeting of his political affairs committee to work out a counter strategy. Among those present at the Temple Trees meeting were Ministers Karu Jayasuriya, Tilak Marapone, Rauf Hakeem, S.B. Dissanayake, UNP Chairman Malik Samarawickrema and General Secretary Senarath Kapukotuwa.

Prime Minister Wickremesinghe himself had come prepared for the meeting with a strategy paper setting out possible scenarios and options, together with suggestions for easing the economic burdens on the people and placed them before the committee.

Wickremesinghe explained to the committee the information in his possession of the PA strategy and the pressure put by the JVP for the dissolution of parliament and said the government must be ready to face an election at any given time.

Testing waters

Thereafter, Minister S.B. Dissanayake explained the current thinking of the President to first test the waters with an election in the Southern Province and go for a general election under a PA-JVP caretaker government.

"I personally do not think she will be able to go through with her plan because pressure will come from within the SLFP not to form an alliance with the JVP, in addition to not go for an election. Anura Bandaranaike himself has said it is not advantageous for the PA to go for an election at this time," he said.

Continuing, Minister Dissanayake said many moderates within the PA are opposed to an election since they fear the outbreak of war and the blame falling on the party.

"The President herself will feel eventually she cannot campaign due to a security risk in such a situation. But let us assume there will be an election and prepare for it. Whatever the sceptics say, we can increase our majority by a minimum of 10 seats. All we have to do is provide some economic relief to the people," Dissanayake added.

However, Dissanayake said the President is also under pressure by the JVP to form a minority government before dissolution so that the election can be held with the state machinery in the hands of the PA-JVP alliance.

"That is what we have to look out for. If that happens, it will be clear they want to push the country into a dictatorship and we will have to take drastic action. We will then bring the people to the city and walk into our ministries and convene parliament and continue to sit. We must not allow them to travel that path and accept it meekly," Dissanayake further said.

Making his own contribution at this meeting, Minister Jayasuriya said in such a situation it was of paramount importance to have an independent judiciary and the government was duty bound to honour its pledge to the people and impeach the Chief Justice as a matter of priority.

Moving against Wickremasuriya

Agreeing with Jayasuriya, Minister Dissanayake said the government is also now set to move against the Permanent Commission Investigating Allegations of Bribery or Corruption since it is used as a political tool by the President as exposed in recent revelations.

"The motion calling for a select committee on Commissioner Kingsley Wickremasuriya is now ready and I will collect signatures this week and present it to parliament," he said.

At this point, the Prime Minister said the government will initially move against Wickremasuriya and look at the issue of the Chief Justice subsequently.

At the same time, the committee decided to launch a campaign headed by the Prime Minister from the first week of February with a meeting in Anuradhapura on February 2, followed by a brainstorming meeting of ministers at Temple Trees on February 6, where a package of economic relief and overall strategy are to be discussed.

The Prime Minister also told the members the plans he had in the immediate future to relieve the people of their economic burdens in the overall context of improved economic growth.

In furtherance of the government's overall strategy, the cost of living committee also met the same day and worked out a series of proposals to reduce the rising prices. Among those present were Ministers Karu Jayasuriya, Bandula Gunawardena, Ravi Karunanayake, S.B. Dissanayake, Treasury Secretary Charitha Ratwatte and Advisor to the Prime Minister, K.H.J. Wijedasa.

Cost of living issues

At this meeting, initially the committee looked at bringing down the price of flour and Wijedasa pointed out the wheat imports were done under an agreement signed during the PA tenure on terms detrimental to Sri Lanka.

He said it was the Kansas Commodity Exchange Rate which was used though wheat imports from the U.S.A. was only 27%. The committee thereafter decided the government should renegotiate the terms with Prima for the benefit of the consumers.

It was, however, pointed out very clearly by Finance Secretary Charitha Ratwatte that the government will not provide subsidies and plunge the country into a deep economic crisis.

Thereafter, the question of rice was taken up and it was decided not to do anything on this issue since a bumper harvest was expected in March.

Minister Dissanayake said an unprecedented harvest is expected and there was no cause to worry on that score. Likewise, it was decided that given the overall economic situation, the petroleum prices will not be jacked up, while the withdrawal of VAT on gas was proposed to bring down the price.

The committee decided that the withdrawal of VAT on gas would be done to benefit the consumer and not the producer.

The price reduction will have to be passed on to the consumer Karunanayake said. The committee also decided that the government must resist strenuously in court the action filed by Shell against the Fair Trading Commission (FTC), whilst also asking the FTC to look into the activities of Laugfs gas.

A further discussion on the overall strategy to bring down the cost of living is now planned for this week with the Prime Minister.

And when the UNP parliamentary group met on Thursday, these issues, including the action against the Bribery Commission, topped the agenda.

What the government was doing by taking on the Bribery Commission was send a signal to the President, it will no longer stand and watch while the administration is destabilised.

Thus, when the group met, Minister S.B. Dissanayake moved for a select committee on Kingsley Wickremasuriya, giving details on the President's interference with the workings of the commission using the Commissioner as a tool.

On the offensive

Supporting Dissanayake was Minister Karunanayake, who too said it was time the government went on the offensive, thinking which was backed by Puttlam District MP, Ranga Bandara.

Equally vociferous on the workings of the commission was Minister Rajitha Senaratne who said Wickremasuriya had in writing asked the investigators for all complaints received against politicians after the UNF was elected to office, while Minister G.L. Peiris explained the thinking behind the introduction of the independent commission and how the objectives were now subverted by the commissioners.

"This is like the judge going to the complainant's home to write the judgement against the accused," he said, referring to Minister Dissanayake's case.

Interestingly, Justice Minister W.J.M. Lokubandara said since the President was also involved in subverting justice, action should be taken against her as well. Up went Karunanayake - "I will start collecting the signatures."

A smiling Prime Minister responding said the government should first concentrate on the Bribery Commission and then look at other options.

And by Friday, Minister Dissanayake started collecting the signatures for the select committee, sending a clear signal the government is now officially on the war path with Kumaratunga.

Oslo debate a damp squib

By Amantha Perera 

The best way to describe the last two days of debating last week would be: booooooring.

The debate was on the statement made by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe soon after the Oslo donor conference and was billed to be full of fiery exchanges, but it hardly created a spark.

Journalists covering the debate were sleeping in the media room with the Order Book as a pillow. Members inside the chamber were making an effort to keep their eyes open. Economic Reforms Minister and peace negotiator Milinda Moragoda, admitted to visiting Executive Director, UNICEF, Carol Bellamy that he was finding the debate lethargic.

The opposition had wanted the debate taken up much earlier than the last week of January. Opposition party leaders had demanded that the debate be taken during the first week, but the government manoeuvred to get what it wanted.

By postponing the debate to a date when other political developments would be taking precedence, the government not only took out any venom in the bite, but smashed the fangs as well.

On both sides of the aisle, attention was on what was happening outside the chamber. The opposition was holding closed door meetings to hammer out an alliance that could defeat the UNF at an election if the need arises. Opposition members would be more than happy to topple the government and form a new one through the age old art of crossovers.

The government at last had woken up to the economic realities and was paying more attention to stopping the rut before it overwhelms its popularity.

All in all, the debate was a damp squib.

The only significance if any, was when Prime Minister Wickremesinghe spoke on Friday and what took place thereafter. He said that the peace process had reached a critical stage and co-operation among all parties would be important to achieve success.

He told parliament that the President as well as the house would be kept informed of the progress. According to the Prime Minister, important issues would come up for discussion at the next round of talks

He then concluded his speech, informing members that Prof. G. L. Peiris would answer remaining questions.

The opposition did not buy that and amidst the din, JVP’s Weerawansa raised a point of order arguing that with Wickremesinghe’s speech the debate should conclude. However, the chair did not agree and allowed Prof. Peiris to continue.

Walkout

PA and JVP members thereafter staged a walk-out during the reply while other political parties remained in the chamber.

From the opposition, the opening speaker was none other than Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapakse. In his opening salvo, Rajapakse set the tone for what was to follow. He attacked the process, but did not come up with any viable solution the opposition had in mind.

Rajapakse said that the expectations of the people were not met and that the government despite the bravado had not achieved anything tangible.

“There should be a far wider analysis of the reasons behind the war,” he said, adding that the LTTE was continuing to arm itself, strengthening its units with child recruits and there was no sign that it was not building up the suicide units.

“The government should at least make the request that the suicide squad be disbanded,” he concluded.

Former Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickremanayake followed suit observing that what ever solution should guarantee equal rights to all citizens. Wickremanayake appeared peeved that in some quarters of the government, the armed forces were being belittled. “I advice them the science of silence,” the former premier said warning that the concerns of the armed forces should be taken seriously by the government which should also desist bending backwards at every whim and fancy of the LTTE.

Both opposition seniors said that the way things were going, they harboured serious reservations about the peace process.

Minister S. B. Dissanayake, the first speaker from the government benches delved into the history of peace making saying that everyone had been left a loser in the war and that the entire country was now longing for peace.

Dissanayake said that the Premier had adopted a cautious approach to the peace process and was taking one step at a time. He described the progress of the first year of the ceasefire as the first step where parties had agreed not to massacre each other.

To those who keep demanding that core issues be discussed as soon as possible, Dissanayake pointing to history said that complex issues needed to be tackled slowly and should not be approached head-on.

Dissanayake concluded his speech saying that India was being consulted every step of the way and that the government was moving with India’s blessings during what he termed a “decisive moment in history.”

JVP’s Weerawansa had an entirely different take on the peace process. He said that from the beginning, it was the LTTE that was gaining and by the MoU, the government took the first step in alleviating the LTTE’s legitimacy.

Taking offence that the government and the LTTE were given equal treatment, Weerawansa said the Oslo meeting was another step up the ladder for the LTTE.

By the end of his speech, Weerawansa had transformed himself into the pulpit speaker that he is, taking on the persona of a saviour of the nation. He was whacking right around accusing others of being “Anglo Saxon Animals” and urging anyone within earshot to join his band of crusaders to save the nation.

But once again, the speech lacked any substance, unless, the audience was red-blooded JVP die-hards. The JVP has still not come out clearly with its own proposal to solve the ethnic issue, always keeping to vague pseudo-Marxist jargon.

Anura Bandaranaike who has hit it off with Weerawansa was quite in tune when he warned the house on Friday that the President would take serious note of future violations of the ceasefire agreement.

Minister Rauf Hakeem certainly is not a Marxist, not by a long shot. But he certainly is a politician. While commending the peace process, he kept reminding the house that there are problems the Muslims were facing with the LTTE.

Hakeem appeared confident that the upcoming Tokyo meeting would be a key barometer in reflecting international confidence on the process. In Hakeem’s opinion, the monitoring mechanism should be strengthened and the peace talks should start dealing with political issues.

The SLMC leader, who not so long ago skipped the peace negotiations when his own leadership was under threat, said that there were attempts by mediators to get all Muslim MPs to sign a letter calling for a human rights agenda at the peace talks.

Minister Moragoda kept to the government line that India was kept informed and that the peace process had only reached a state of trust building and in the past year what was taking place was the rebuilding of burnt bridges due to 20 years of war.

Confidence building

Highlighting the High Security Zone  controversy, Moragoda said that such issues would only be solved based on mutual trust and that only time will be the witness to its success.

Moragoda raised the issue of detractors fanning communal fires and that the government was engaged in internal confidence building measures with President Chandrika Kumaratunga.

“Today we have a unique chance. The world is with us. The two parties to the conflict are talking and the people are telling us, the politicians to work together,” the young Turk among UNP ranks said.

The Tamil parties as a whole commented on the process, but raised issues that they thought necessary to be addressed more vigorously.

Despite the rhetoric, the one and half days of debating achieved very little. There was no constructive dialogue that came about. While the likes of Moragoda were advocating that mutual trust was the only way forward, the likes of Weerawansa were on the war path. There was no middle ground.

At the end of their speeches, both Moragoda and Weerawansa made pleas for support. “For the sake of the people of Sri Lanka, now is the time for this chamber to unite in the common cause of peace,” the UNPer appealed.

Just a few hours before, the JVPer made the same appeal, only his motive was to get the government off its present course of action as soon as possible.

Richard returns

Former Leader of the House, Richard Pathirana has been out of the picture in the recent past. The former minister who was at one time the most vociferous supporter of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his peace campaign, at times went as far as to say that he had dealt with the likes of President Ranasinghe Premadasa and that he knew how to handle the incumbent.

Pathirana’s mindset has undergone a drastic change from those days. Last week at the PA parliamentary group meeting, Pathirana agreed to make way for Anura Bandaranaike to attend the party leaders’ meetings. He had refused to accede to the request even when President Chandrika Kumaratunga made it. But when his overtures to win back the Akmeemana chief organiser post fell on deaf ears, Pathirana has decided to make way for Bandaranaike.

However, Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapakse was awaiting Pathirana’s official letter notifying him that he will not be attending the meetings.

Last week, Pathirana attended the anti-peace process rally held in Anuradhapura in the company of the likes of Bandaranaike and JVP’s Wimal Weerawansa.

“There was a good crowd,” Pathirana observed later in parliament. He is now fully lending his weight to the JVP-SLFP tie-up. Pathirana argued that even the Galle seat that the SLFP lost by 5,000 votes could be won back. “The JVP secured 40,000 votes, with the help of the JVP, we can win the bonus seat as well.”

Wickremesinghe has fallen in his esteem, “there is no point in shouting  peace now because people are hungry,” said Pathirana adding that his change of heart came about when the people of his electorate started relating their plight and not because the crossover bid came to nought.

The change of heart has however meant that Pathirana has become a spent force in the eyes of the media. Last week, he had come all the way to the media dining room to locate a representative from Lake House to carry a correction. According to him, Dinamina had said that he was removed from attending the party leaders’ meetings which was not the case.

Bandaranaike vs. Rajapakse

Despite the calm on the surface, Anura Bandaranaike last week took several swipes at Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapakse at the Anuradhapura rally. At one point, Bandaranaike had remarked that political leadership cannot be achieved by serialising life stories in newspapers.

Rajapakse’s life story is being serialised in a Sinhala newspaper these days.

Bandaranaike has also hit a rosy patch with one of Rajapakse’s staunchest critics, none other than the JVP’s Weerawansa. The latter made a beeline to Rosmead Place soon after Bandaranaike returned from the US to discuss political developments.

It would be interesting to find out how Weerawansa views Bandaranaike’s affinity to the Yankee country, considering that the JVPer these days is lambasting government ministers of being “Anglo Saxon Animals.”

Women to the fore

Mahinda Rajapakse last week was planning his Jana Gosha protest campaign scheduled for later this month.

He met with Ratnapura MP Pavithra Wanniarachchi and explained to her that he wants women to play a major role in the campaign. The plan is to get women to beat empty pots and pans and take the lead. Wanniarachchi for her part was not really sure whether she could get women to join in big numbers. The Opposition Leader’s plan is to have a major rally in Colombo and simultaneously have similar protest campaigns in the electorates.

JVP — the answer to PA corruption

Just the day after her meeting with the Opposition Leader, Wanniarachchi was in the office of Chief Opposition Whip Mangala Samaraweera with her husband. The discussion at one point dealt with the Opposition Leader and his anxiety that he was facing internal rivalries.

The three also discussed about corruption in high places with Samaraweera pointing out that the President should have been strict from the beginning.

“But, now with the JVP, our people will not be able to do all that,” Wanniarachchi observed. Apparently the female legislator from the gem capital has taken a liking to the JVPers, spending time among them in the well and sharing an occasional joke.

Boring debate

The top UNP leadership last week met with UNICEF Executive Director  Carol Bellamy in parliament. Assisting Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe at the meeting were Ministers and peace emissaries Milinda Moragoda and later Prof. G. L. Peiris.

Since the meeting took place while parliament was debating Wickremesinghe’s statement after the Oslo donor parley, the debate became a topic of discussion. Moragoda told the UNICEF representative that the debate at times was boring. But the Minister was glad at least of certain aspects of the debate noting that opposition to the peace process was now limited to rhetoric.

Bellamy told the government high rankers that she had expected the opposition to play a part in the process and that if there was more than rhetoric in the speeches, that would be a different ball game.

No confidence on Marapone

Party leaders’ meetings are usually a fiery affair. The party representatives have been haggling for months over the no confidence motion against Defence Minister Tilak Marapone. The JVP and MEP have been pressing that it be taken up as soon as possible, but the government has been delaying it.

Last week, the government agreed to take up the debate by end of this month or early March. There was no confirmation from the opposition ranks. The last time such a motion was taken up, against Interior Minister John Amaratunga, parliament was reduced to a cinema gallery when voting concluded.

Parliament will only meet for one week this month, that being in the third week. Though the first week too was set aside for sessions, the government informed party leaders that there was no business to be taken up. Initially, some opposition party members had wanted sessions to be held at least for one day during that week, but as usual, the government’s will prevailed.

JVP-SLFP getting closer

The JVP-SLFP discussions are progressing satisfactorily, at least that is the thinking of the supporters’ of such a tie-up. The report on the progress of the talks is very likely to be submitted to the SLFP Central Committee soon and from there to the PA Executive Committee.

There was speculation in some opposition quarters that a deal might be in place as early as next month. However, some opposition members were still  anxious as to whether the tie-up may not be enough and that elections would be not far away.

The JVP in its very limited public utterances on the discussions has been shrewd enough to leave out any suggestion of an election to form a new government. It opposed the UNP moves in 2001, when the 10 opposition parties set in motion events that would have allowed it to wrest power without facing an election.

Lakmina’s ghost writer

The ghost writer at the Lakmina newspaper who is being credited with creating the assassination story linking a PA strong man is having a tough time these days. In the national newspaper where he works as a self proclaimed defence expert, nasty calls are being directed at him even via the intercom system. The poor man has been reduced to a blabbering wreck. He is enjoying anything but a Keerthi Namaya.

The story is that the man was originally for the greens. A long time ago, he was paid through the Building Materials Corporation audit when he leaked information to Ranasinghe Premadasa while being attached to a pro-SLFP newspaper.

According to some, his input to the infamous story has been in deleting the word ‘former.’ The original script had referred to a ‘former PA strongman.’ The former was edited since it was killing the effect. Now the poor chap is in a mess that he never bargained for and is having fits about having to report to the Fourth Floor.