|
This is the first in a new
series commenced by The Sunday Leader. 'Insight' will focus on an
in-depth analysis of a topic affecting the lives of the general
public and the country. We kick off with a look at the transport
sector
The
trouble with bus travel
Ask any commuter, if given a
choice whether he or she would choose to undertake bus travel and
the reply would be the predictable firm 'No.' It is those who lack
the luxury of a privately owned vehicle who would undertake a bus
journey. Or else, who would want the package deal of delays,
hassles, and pickpockets to deal with while commuting to a
destination.
To say the least, the service
is bad, or is simply no service at all. And this is an admission
made by no lesser a person than the Chairman, Sri Lanka Transport
Board, U.L.M. Farook who claims that the service could be improved
only on the day
the place is de-politicised and not otherwise.
Little wonder then that the
SLTB incurs losses to the tune of over Rs. 200 million on a
monthly basis -a reflection of how unhealthy the service is.
The statistics are daunting
too. There are 13 employees per bus according to the SLTB
Chairman, and that means there are seven employees in excess per
bus, which
places an enormous burden on an institution that has become
a haven for politically appointed stooges and thieves.
The SLTB had in its custody a
fleet of 9,368 buses before the JVP insurgency in 1989.
Destruction of public property during that time largely targeted
the buses. In post-1989, 1,000 buses were auctioned though it
brought in
little money for an institution that was cash strapped.
Today
out of the remaining 8,368 buses, about 1,500 are not running due
to the
lack of necessary spares, maintenance and related matters. The
depot charts require 6,878 buses plying daily and in actual fact,
there are only 4,500 buses that could be regularly used. There is
an obvious shortage of over 1,000 buses to meet the public demand
- an
impossible target to meet at present.
Corruption
Farook claims that the
history of making a fast buck by purchasing inferior spares,
widespread corruption, ineffective management and lack of
maintenance has contributed to the sorry state of the service.
And then it is a return to
the political question. The SLTB is excessively staffed, and
Rs.120 million is spent on the monthly salaries of its 23,000
employees alone. This is a huge burden on an institution that is
barely able to survive.
Adding to the burden were the
recent diesel price hikes. The first hike resulted in the SLTB
having to sustain a loss of Rs. 30 million and after the second
one, Rs. 15 million.
" There is only one way
to improve and that is to bring discipline to the institution,
and introduce a heavy retrenchment programme" says the
disgusted Chairman. So far, people have met him including top
politicians to only push for promotions, transfers and salary
increases. Farook, a one-time deputy minister of transport
himself, claims that he is eagerly waiting for someone to call him
for a discussion on how to improve the sector and already more
than a year has lapsed since the UNF took office, but no such
luck.
One of the biggest drawbacks
according to SLTB sources is the number of political promotions
that have occured over the years. It has created a situation where
there is a less number of drivers and conductors and too many
senior staffers who have no proper function. As the institution is
already overstaffed, recruiting drivers and conductors is also not
possible, though it is done at regular intervals adding to the
institution's woes.
A circular was recently
issued requiring each spare part purchased to repair a bus
be displayed at the particular depot. One of the biggest
rackets according to Farook is
the incessant purchase of Korean or Taiwan made spare parts
for the prices quoted by Japanese companies.
"The difference is
considerable and since there is no legal requirement to prove the
spare part was actually purchased from a particular
company, substitution of body parts
by using inferior products
meant that it needed a further replacement soon," he
claimed.
Nightmare
Admittedly, the transport
service has improved in the cities and districts that are
considered more urban. But go beyond to the areas with less
developed infrastructure and signs of urbanity,
state transport is a killing experience.
Not forgetting how errant the
driving is, it is no joke being
a commuter or a pedestrian judging by the number of fatal
bus accidents in the past year
alone. In remote areas, it is an eternal wait for a bus to
arrive. And
if this bus does not turn up, that would practically mean children
failing to go to school, people getting late to work and
oftentimes, having to reschedule one's journey all together. It is
certainly not fun.
Since 1968, this sector has
not been able to provide a fair and justifiable service to the
commuters, and the commuters' litany of woes is heart breaking.
Despite ad hoc attempts, the sector has only had marginal
improvements.
Do buses run the way they are
supposed to, we asked depot inspectors. Their answer was a
collective "No." Of course there were problems with
regard to adhering to charts, as often there were breakdowns. Who
runs the buses? is yet another question that remains unanswered.
It is believed
certain 'chandiyas' controlled by a handful of politicians
continue to ruin this sector.
It was shocking to learn that
though officially there was more than the required number of buses
available, not all plied regularly. It was explained that the
principal cause for this is the lack of proper schedules, and
then, the fact that outsiders governed the schedules.
It was thought in the late
'70s that calling the private sector also to shoulder some of the
responsibility in the transport sector would be the panacea for
all ills, but the problem thereafter appeared to be even greater.
The omnibus operators moved
into the scene in 1978. The private bus operators formed
themselves into different bus co-operatives. Some of the
handpicked 'chandiyas' of a particular area invariably controlled
them. These elements obviously had political influence to decide
on the whole operation and also to work out schedules
to suit their requirements.
No
control
Though the government held a
fair stake
during the privatisation, it failed to utilise its full
powers under the constitution to keep the chandiyas under control.
In 1982 private bus
departments were created for better results. Whatever the changes
that were introduced with the intention of streamlining the
sector, the government did not pay much attention to these
chandiyas
who wielded more power in the entire private bus operation
than the government.
Under the Indo-Lanka
agreement the 13th Amendment was introduced and by 1991/2 the
responsibility to run the buses was delegated to the provinces.
Though the old system died a natural death, the chandiyas were
absorbed into the provincial council transport authority, who then
carried out similar
operations. They still could not be controlled. They drew
up the schedules and the busses had to run according to their
directives.
Each operator was forced to
give the 'chandiyas' who subsequently were called "time
keepers" their share. These so called time keepers are still
found actively extorting money from bus operators and influencing
the authorities concerned in changing the time schedule according
to their whims and fancies.
The Private Bus Owners
Association (PBOA) President, Gemunu Wijeratne says this whole
system should be changed adding that there should be a system
where political influence would be out of bounce.
Wijeratne says with six
provincial councils controlled by the People's Alliance (PA), it
is even more difficult to run these busses and meet the demands of
the public.
He says until politics is
driven out of this sector, the bus operators can never provide a
satisfactory service.
"I suggest that the
National Transport Commission be abolished all together and an
independent transport committee appointed to run the whole
operation," he told The Sunday Leader.
The Sunday Leader found out
that only about 45% of bus halts are available in the routes for
buses and of them, majority of the halts do not have proper
facilities for both the public as well as the crew. For instance
halts do not have toilet facilities for drivers or the conductors.
Snail pace
Since the number
of passengers are now spread over to more buses, as there
are excess buses on some roads, bus operators tend to slow down
their journey in order to pick passengers and fill their buses.
Dr. Amal S. Kumarage of the
Transportation Engineering Division of Moratuwa University puts it
this way. He says there are 25 buses running on a particular route
when the requirement is only for 20, naturally resulting in a
revenue drop. In order to cover the cost, the only method a driver
adopts is to drag his journey, picking as many passengers as
possible. This
obviously creates delays, Kumarage explained.
He also says a bus that
earlier operated about five trips
a
day
may have to be reduced to either four or three with the
extra buses. "There again a driver's revenue is hit hard.
What he does is to burden the passengers by doing a slow
run," he said.
Kumarage
who has carried out a number of surveys on national transport
further says that permits issued by the state are also flawed.
According to him permits are
issued without any market survey under political influence. He
says a permit must be issued only if there is a need for it.
In Sri Lanka generally
permits are issued to the 'chits' that are sent to the authorities
by politicians.
Issuing only
According to Dr. Kumarage a
permit is a contract. He says surprisingly it is only in Sri Lanka
that permits are never cancelled for any breach of conditions or
regulations. "There is only one system and that is to keep
issuing," said Kumarage.
Today almost every bus driver
is imposed a penalty for
breach of road rules.
But it stops there. If his license is confiscated today,
tomorrow
the driver pays the amount needed to redeem it, and is back
on the job.
The Sunday Leader also found
out that the operators are not accountable to anyone because most
of the bus owners lease out their vehicles. This seems to be a
problem for the law enforcement authority in instituting legal
action against the real owner.
Also because of the
competitive nature of the bus drivers and the operators, drivers
are constantly hired and fired. For instance, an owner may sack a
driver who runs over a person, but the owner's competitor will
hire the same driver once the legal case is over.
The crux of the matter is,
politics needs to be weeded out if the bus service is to be given
a boost, and it is about time that some quick fixes are made to
ensure that the poor public get some kind of dependable and decent
service.
Minister Tilak Marapone who
is overburdened with several portfolios to juggle said that it was
extremely difficult to create a commuter-friendly transport system
when the flow of funds was low.
"It has to be understood
that with the limited allocations, it is a grueling task to
address this issue. Nevertheless, I agree that the public bus
service needs to be overhauled in a manner that serves the
public."
Marapone said with the peace
dividend, the coming years would ensure better budgetary
allocations that could be used to effect necessary improvements in
the public transport system, serving the common man.
Wheels of
death
It is very rarely that a
government department lives up to the expectations of the Central
Bank. But, the Sri Lanka Railways
(SLR) is not only meeting the targets, but outperforming
them as well.
Surprise, surprise? Well read
on.
“In the absence of new
investments and reforms, notable improvement in the rail services
cannot be expected even in 2003,” the bank said in a report
titled ‘Recent Economic Developments – Highlights of 2002 and
Prospects for 2003.’
There is no improvement, but
there certainly is deterioration. From the last weekend of
January, the SLR
discontinued track maintenance during the weekend. The
reason – lack of funds to pay over time (OT). Trains are running
at a speed of 30mph. The Galle express that usually reaches
Colombo within three hours, last week took five hours.
According to Administrative
Manager, SLR,
Vasantha Ekanayake fund allocations have been slashed by
the Treasury in the last budget, resulting in funds running thin.
What has taken place is that
the SLR was using parts of its capital allocations to meet
recurrent expenditure like some OT payments. Now that the
allocations have been cut, so is over time. And the solution is
that engine drivers have been advised to stick to a speed limit of
30 mph.
Last week, SLR said that
allocations have been made by the Treasury, but the speed was
increased only by 5 mph to 35 mph.
Transport Minister Tialk
Marapone last week appointed a committee to alliviate situation.
One of the first decisions by
the nine ubsid committee was to allocate Rs. 400 million to the
SLR. The council
that is headed by Additional General Manager Railways,
K. A. Premasiri has the power to ubsidiz the GMR if the
necessity arises.
But maintenance is not the
only problem that is plaguing the SLR. It does not have adequate
locomotives and carriages to meet the minimum requirements
and is finding it increasingly difficult to maintain
standards.
The SLR has
129 locomotives in its use, but according to the Central
Bank it needs 154 to barely meet the timetable demands.
The 520 carriages are hardly
enough to meet the minimum requirement of 809.
The deadly formula of the state of the tracks coupled with
the dearth in resources means that the SLR is
risking the lives of thousands of commuters with each trip.
And these commuters, mostly
lower or middle income level government servants
sometimes are literally riding on wheels of death. A
confidential report handed over to the General Manager,
SLR last year listed that four daily long distance
outstation trains were running with a staggering 17 carriages that
had only been inspected and serviced four years back.
Same old story
The servicing was
subsequently improved after The Sunday Leader highlighted the
pathetic state of affairs. But according to SLR sources after the
initial enthusiasm now it is back to the same old story.
Recently, SLR experienced a
shortage of wheels. Its in-house stock ran out and replacements
could not be found. Yet
the trains were put on track and carried the unsuspecting
commuters.
The new stock only arrived
two weeks back but service managers at sub depots like Ratmalana
are having problems aquiring the wheels as they do not have
sufficient monetary allocations of their own.
SLR engineers take such
incidents to highlight the very poor planning that goes on at the
SLR. “When you can’t afford rice, you try to survive on
something else. Here, you starve,” one engineer said.
His argument is that if funds
are slashed, like what is happening across the board nowadays,
plans should be in place that will allow the SLR to carry out a
safe service, at least. “The SLR is at a stage where it is hand
to mouth survival and no one seems to have ubsidiz this.”
Ekanayake countered by saying
that the SLR is managing as best it could with the limited funds
and accumulated burdens, like fuel costs.
The SLR owes the Ceylon
Petrolium Coporation Rs. 857 million in outstanding fuel bills.
The CPC issued an ultimatum that if this was not settled by
end-January, fuel supplies would be suspended.
When credit lines and CPC
dues to SLR are deducted, SLR has to pay another Rs. 350 million.
“We will shortly pay Rs. 200 million,” Ekanayake said. That
might alleviate the situation for the time being, but what of the
future that
is bleaker than ever?
The SLR’s annual fuel bill
is Rs. 1,100 million, meaning it will run into the red in the CPC
books again this year.
And with fuel prices on the rise, the losses would be more.
The SLR’s survival strategy
it seems is to cut down quality and provide quantity when
possible. For example, engineers point out that in the urban
sector tracks are relatively well maintained and that there is no
need for the 30 mph limit. However beyond that, where still trains
run on wooden sleepers, it is a different story. Engineers warn
that the next big train accident is just waiting to happen in this
sector.
In the red
With very little funds at its
disposal, Ekanayake admitted that the SLR is not in a position to
upgrade its services.
The SLR is draining public
funds as services are ubsidized by the government.
Its operating loss was calculated by the Central Bank to
breach the Rs. 2 billion mark last year. This, despite a 9%
increase in revenue to Rs. 621 million in the first six months of
2003.
The heavy losses were
attributed to low ticket fares , the rise in oil prices, along
with high salaries and maintenance costs. The losses are exerting
heavy pressure on government finance.
The SLR did increase its freight charges last year but
despite the increase in loads, the losses suffered on the
passenger sector could not be recovered.
The only option that is
available is to increase fares. An option that the government
would not like to think of with the present state of the economy.
SLR General Manager, Priyal de Silva recently told The
Sunday Leader that even if fares are increased by 50% still it
would not suffice.
Train fares have remained
unchanged for almost
nine years, since 1996. They are as much as 50% cheaper
than the bus rates. For example, a train ticket to Waikkala from
Colombo is just Rs 11.50. A normal bus ticket is Rs. 20, while a
luxury ticket is Rs. 50.
With no capital inducement
and no pay revisions, the SLR is running into the red all the
time, especially when it comes to safety standards.
Tomorrow if you
intend in taking a train to work, think again. Would you
risk it? Not a soul would have had a good look at the
track during the last 48 hrs. Wheels of death, man, wheels
of death.
|
Train travel -
a 'different' culture
The real chaotic hours in the
train stations are the evening ones. Hop into the Fort
Railway Station around 5.30 p.m. and bodies would be pushing
you all the way to the train from the steps at the entrance.
Several long distance office
trains rendezvous at the station at this time. The one that
ambles along to Puttalam and its cousins that grind their
way to Galle and Matara.
It is a different culture on
these trains, unlike in the short distance runs mostly used
by urban dwellers.
In these long distance
monsters with 16 to 20 carriages, there are 'clans.' Each
compartment would have its own set aof occupantsnd each seat
would have the very same bums resting in the same places as
the day before and the day before and....
If an unsuspecting new comer
rests his or her tired limbs in one of these pre-specified
locations, the posterior would either be pushed out of the
seat or the conversation would get so nasty that getting up
and risking your life dangling by the railings is a luxury.
Space is luxury in these
trains. Answering a call of nature would have to wait here.
Even the stinking toilets
have their own guests who put the commode cover down
and sit the ride through.
Handicapped, pregnant or
injured, you might go unnoticed in these carriages where
perfectly ordinary citizens in horn rimmed glasses turn into
wolf packs guarding territory.
It is turf war on iron wheels
at its worst.
Most of the long distance
trains have an express run, the Puttalam does this up to
Negombo.What it really means is that at times the trains
would get crowded as commuters closer to Colombo prefer to
take the short ride despite the over crowding.
For instance, the Galle
express reaches Moratuwa, 20 km from Colombo in less than 15
minutes from Bambalapitiya. In the evening traffic jam, the
bus would take
one and half-hours to reach the same destination.
There is entertainment also
while on the go. There are groups of passengers that provide
sing alongs and if the train is not that crowded, the usual
street singer or band (with battery powered sound systems to
boot) would get in and start an impromptu performance.
Then there are the
never-ending card games, famous among middle aged men.
Then there is
fun of
other sorts, the stuff that takes place at narrow
corners between the different sexes. Yes, bumpier the ride,
better the gleanings.
There are some trains that
are famous for 'the couples.' The early morning Puttalam
train that arrives in Colombo at 8.15 a.m. being one such.
When the train begins its ride, it is pitch dark and for the
amorously inclined, it is game time in twos.
The Victorian morality Sri
Lankans love to gloat over rests squarely on the platform.
Age is no barrier on the
train. Sari draped middle aged ladies are pack animals on
the carriage. Minutes after stepping down though, they
convert themselves in to
innocent
'virgins.'
The change-over repeats in the evening.
Then there are the
conversations, on every thing from politics to the
previous night's tele-dramas, constantly disturbing
the attention of the avid newspaper junkies who carry the
weekend paper on Friday.
But the trains are the most
cost-effective mode of travel to most government office
workers who travel to Colombo from 40, 50 km out. They have
a special relationship with the train. They even have annual
parties in the carriages. They know the engine driver and
are sure that even if the connecting bus gets 10 minutes
late the friendly driver would keep the train waiting for
them. Every year-end, the driver is showered
with gifts.
When the routine delay takes
place, they despair, but hope that the driver despairs with
them, and blames the government. They curse at the bus
commuters who pack in like sardines when the buses go on
strike and bemoan travel by bus.
|
Commuter
woes
It is peak office time, 5
p.m., and the main bus stand at Pettah is a sea of heads and a
hive of activity. Some people paid an extra Rs. 3 to get to this
main bus halt so that they could take a bus and be seated all the
way to their destination.
According to commuters, there
are many shortcomings in our bus services. The main among them are
that CTB buses are scarce and that the private buses take
"their own cool time" to reach the destination.
"About 20,000 people
flock here," said Senior Supervisor
D. G. Kulasena, from his little cagelike compartment
Wednesday evening. "But we have enough buses that come here -
there are the route numbers 120, 122,125 and the Moratuwa,
Panadura and Ratmalana buses. We expect 20 to 30 buses to come
here . But once in away the number is less. I cannot say that
there are no buses because at the office time some bus turns up
here," he pointed out speaking on behalf of the CTB.
"Anyway all I can say is that everybody who comes here
somehow goes home," was the way he summed up the situation.
But how do commuters go home.
In the lap of luxury or in a never-ending nightmare of discomfort?
The state of our transport is so bad that people seemed to have
accepted it as a way of life. They fail to notice that they are
packed into buses and left standing in them, till the drivers
decide to make a move, which is almost, never.
The men in the compartments
that deal with private buses are better attired. They speak good
English and paint an overall good image of privatisation. But more
importantly, they say that private buses are a dime a dozen.
"There is a bus every 15 minutes and we say that we give
commuters the best service," said Udaya Kumara Kodagoda, the
timekeeper.
The stand OIC said that they
experience no shortage of buses. Infact we have more buses than
the CTB. We start at 4.30 p.m. and go on till 9.30 p.m. If there
is a shortage we get extra buses.
On a Friday we experience a great rush here. But somehow we
manage," said Daya Ranasinghe, stand OIC.
Painfully slow
As if confirming what the
authorities are saying, Mohammed Mudaseer said "I come from
Panchikawatte to Pettah and there are enough buses. There are
buses from Kadawatha and Jaela. There are buses every five
minutes."
Mohamed Roshan From
Kahatawita said that he gets a bus every half an hour and
sometimes even that does not turn up. He said that the last bus is
at 9.30 p. m.
Bus no 63-2258 that took off
from Pettah to its destination Moratuwa however took two hours to
reach its destination. Stopping at every halt, waiting for
competitors to pass by; it lazily dragged its way. The people in
seats were yawning and those hanging on its iron pole above were
annoyed. But nobody said a word.
Photographer Berty Mendis
stood clutching onto his camera bag. He was writhing in
discomfort, standing in a middle line, as the two lines of people
on his left and right were making it impossible for him to
breathe. It was going to be a long ride. The conductor kept
shouting "Naginna, Naginna," to people who seemed not to
have the faintest hope of taking the bus. People were being coaxed
into the bus with loving tenderness. When the time came to get off
however, they were almost pushed out. Those who took time to get
off the bus experienced the conductor's wrath: "Nidagenada
hitiye?" were some of the personal questions he asked.
The conductor also found
great relationships among the commuters. Some were Akkas, others
were Ammes, and Uncles. Thankfully there were no aunties.
Shermi, an office girl in the
bus said "True there are buses. But they are all so crowded
and they take such a long time to get to their destination that it
is so annoying. We have to sit here and wait till the driver
decides to move the bus. It moves for five minutes and then it
stops at one halt and waits for a long time. If a CTB bus passes
or another private bus going on the same route passes by, then we
have to wait for a long time before this bus decides to make a
move," she said in desperation.
True to her word, the bus did
not move. It was a painful experience. "Naginna, naginna,
Kollupitiya, Bambalapitiya Wellawatte, Dehiwala........." The
conductor kept on saying the same thing like an old warped record.
Battle for a seat
Somewhere in Bambalapitiya,
I won a battle with two men for a seat and got it. But the
joy was shortlived as a youth wearing a lavendar T-shirt with the
word 'Gap' decided to fill me in on what I did not know about
travelling by bus during office time. He began to rub his hips and
accessories all over my shoulder. First it looked as if
I was making a mistake for he was looking far out of the
window, as if admiring the scenery. 'Maybe it is my dirty mind,' I
told myself. Besides the bus was so crowded and nobody seemed to
be in the mood for anything except to get home. But as the ride
picked up, so did the man. It was more pronounced and unbearable.
"It happens to office girls most of the time. Another
annoying thing is the way people smoke cigarettes inside buses and
puffs the smoke in our faces," said Enoka.
A majority of the commuters
in Pettah said that there are buses, just the way the authorities
say, but that they are all so crowded and so painfully slow.
It was evident that commuters
travel without even the basic comforts. Those who are seated
experience the pain of having the weight of those who are standing
being thrust upon them. But it is those who have to stand all the
way who bear the greatest burden. They have to shift from one leg
to the other for not only is the ride long because of traffic but
for the simple reason that private buses really do not want to go.
Commuters who are worst
affected are those who have to board the bus mid way. The halts in
Kollupitiya, Bambalapitiya, Wellawatte, Dehiwala, have a hard time
boarding buses that come from Pettah. "They are so crowded
and even if we get in
we have to hang on to some space and hold our
breath and bear it all till we go home," said Enoka.
In Colombo not only is the
Galle Road in a state of chaos, but
Town Hall, Union Place, Thimbirigasyaya, Havelock Road,
areas where route numbers 122,123, 125,138
ply. "There are enough buses on route 138, but they
take such a long time to go," moaned Dileepa who has to take
the 138 everyday. "I am so sick of going to work because I
have to spend so much time in the bus. I have to board the bus at
least one and a half hours early and even then I go to office just
on time and sometimes late," she said.
Commuters welcomed the CTB
buses, but the sad fact was that though they boast of having so
many buses
compared to the privates buses, CTB buses were a gone
issue. Infact, commuters said that if ever they got into a CTB
bus, it was their surprise of the day.
|
Don't blame us
- Engineers
The Institution of Engineers,
Sri Lanka (IESL) is greatly perturbed by the lack of
sufficient funds for both capital and recurrent expenditure
in the Sri Lanka Railway by the government. Apparently, a
totally inadequate allocation has been made making it
impossible for standards to be maintained.
The railway is an essential
service. Thousands of commuters rely on it to get to work
not only in the metropolis but also in other urban centres
throughout the island. As a result of the lack of funds to
maintain the railway, services will have to be curtailed and
some terminated. Already, because of serious safety
considerations, trains are running below optimum speed. This
causes delays in commuters getting to work and the end
result is lower than average productivity. This certainly
puts a strain of an already overburdened economy.
The IESL is highly conscious
of the fact that by the inadequate allocation of funds,
engineers employed in Sri Lanka Railways are at the moment
carrying out their work far below expected engineering
standards thus even compromising on safety.
This is a serious matter that
merits immediate consideration and action. The safety of the
travelling public cannot be compromised any longer. A major
railway accident or accidents are just waiting to happen
purely because of the inadequacy of funding to maintain
even minimum safety levels. This means and implies
that members of the IESL working in the railway cannot be
held responsible if a mishap occurs. This is a warning for
the authorities concerned to take notice of immediately.
On the main line between
Colombo and Badulla, all train services are being terminated
at Bandarawela because the tracks have shifted out of their
proper alignment between Badulla and Hali Ella. This means
that any train going over these tracks is in immediate
danger of going over a precipice with tragic results.
It also means that the
travelling public who commute to and from Badulla have now
been compelled to utilise more expensive road transport to
reach their destinations.
Many people commute to work
from Bandarawela to Badulla and from Badulla to Haputale and
so on and they have found using the railway convenient
because they live in the vicinity of the stations and far
from the main roads.
The tracks between Panadura
and Fort and between Avissawella and Maradana are in a poor
state of maintenance and trains speeds have been cut as a
result,
causing grave inconvenience to the travelling public.
All of this is due to the lack of funds.
The Institution of Engineers
strongly urges the government to take immediate action to
correct this situation before it results in death, injury
and damage to person and property. The IESL is issuing this
statement in the public interest and because the safety of
the public is a prime concern of all professional engineers.
The Institute of Engineers,
Sri Lanka
J. B. Muller
Coordinator
Mass Communications &
Information
February 14, 2003 |
The Gulf
crisis and oil prices
Chairman, Ceylon Petroleum
Corporation, Daham Wimalasena said oil prices would definitely go
up as a result of the emerging crisis in the Gulf. He said it is
impossible to say by how much prices will rise locally but it will
depend solely on supply and demand. The recent increase in Brent
crude oil prices Wimalasena said is not an indication of local
crude oil prices. What is being traded in Sri Lanka he said is
crude oil known as Arab Light. Brent crude oil is traded in the
Atlantic and its market price has no effect on crude oil traded in
Sri Lanka.
Short-term dangers
Until now, debate over the
economic impact of a U.S. led attack on Iraq has focused mostly on
short-term dangers. Pundits have worried that just as during the
Gulf War, a new Iraq war would disrupt oil exports from the
Persian Gulf and cause a sharp spike in petroleum prices. Iraq has
113 billion barrels of proven reserves, second worldwide only to
Saudi Arabia, which has 262 billion barrels. But because of its
two decades of war, Iraq's oil potential remains relatively
unexplored. The U.S. Energy Department estimates that Iraq has as
much as 220 billion barrels in undiscovered reserves, bringing the
Iraqi total to the equivalent of 98 years of current U.S. annual
oil imports.
The oil card is clearly a
factor in the current tug-of-war between Baghdad, Washington and
key members of the U.N. Security Council that oppose the Bush
administration's push for a military move on Iraq. In recent
years, seeking to curry favour, Saddam Hussein has given huge
contracts to oil firms from France, Russia and China, which all
have veto power in the Security Council. The last time America
went to war with Iraq, a sluggish economy and terrorism fears kept
Americans close to home. Thousands in the travel industry lost
their jobs, and major carriers struggled to cope with record
losses.
Sri Lanka's fears in this
context is with its migrant workers in the middle east. The
increases in crude oil prices will doubtless automatically affect
transport. Having said that, Wimalasena however pointed out that
the effects of a potential war with Iraq are unknown and cannot be
incorporated into any forecast. Oil market prospects for this year
according to global statistics will remain highly volatile driven
both by the lack of flexibility in the supply chain and by
political uncertainty.
Struggling industry
A
lack of adequate commercial oil stocks in the US and no nearby
replacement for lost short-haul crudes from Venezuela has left the
oil supply chain stretched almost to breaking point. OPEC's
pursuit of its oil price target in 2002 resulted in low commercial
inventories, leaving the industry struggling to cope with the
Venezuelan supply disruption. With the nearest alternative source
of substantial supplies 40 days away in the Middle East, oil
should have been released from the SPR in December to tide
refiners over until this replacement oil arrived, calming market
fears and prices. OPEC's January meeting did nothing to alleviate
the situation, because, with output at 21.7 mbpd, the nine members
other than Iraq and Venezuela were already producing more than the
21.68 mbpd of combined quotas they agreed for themselves. Shipping
data indicate that OPEC output continued to rise in January,
suggesting that other members are producing at least some of
Venezuela's share. However, this increased supply will only be of
benefit when it begins to arrive off the US Gulf coast in mid-to
late-February, this year. A shortage of prompt oil and fears of a
war in Iraq will keep prices high, but when the Venezuelan strike
ends (as it must do sometime), the world could be faced with too
much oil.
Fears of a US-led attack on
Iraq remain, although there is uncertainty over the timing and the
need, or otherwise, for a prior UN resolution. OPEC alone does not
have sufficient, readily available spare capacity to replace both
Venezuela's and Iraq's oil exports, much less to cope with any
supply disruptions from other Gulf producers that might result
from a prolonged conflict in Iraq. Were an attack to be launched
on Iraq, consuming-country governments would have to utilise
quickly their strategic oil stocks to ensure adequate supplies.
This is possibly one of the
reasons why buyers are prepared to pay a large premium for oil
delivered into their tanks now and not later. According to a
recent financial analysis of the situation by Bloomberg press,
crude oil was little changed after rising above $37 a barrel on
the 20th of this month for the first time in 29 months as the U.S.
and U.K. pushed for a United Nations Security Council resolution
authorising the use of force to disarm Iraq. Crude oil for March
delivery traded at $37.10 a barrel in after-hours electronic
trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Last week it rose 20
cents, or 0.5 %, to $37.16 a barrel, the highest closing price
since September 20, 2000.
A rise above $37.80 would put
prices at their highest since October 1990, when the U.S. was
sending troops and materiel to the Persian Gulf following Iraq's
invasion of Kuwait that August. The US and UK are jointly drafting
a new resolution as an ultimatum to Iraq to comply with UN demands
by a fixed date, the U.K.'s Guardian reported, citing unidentified
UN officials. Hussein "is a threat to America and we're going
to deal with it," U.S. President George W. Bush said last
week. "We're
working with our friends and allies to see how best to get a
resolution. It's not necessary, as far as I'm concerned."
Chain reaction
The U.K. government advised
British citizens in Iraq to leave the country
"immediately," citing tension in the region and the risk
of terrorist attacks, according to the Foreign Office web site.
Britons were also advised not to undertake any non-essential
travel to Kuwait. While the war preparations proceed, crude-oil
inventories in the U.S., the largest consumer of the raw material,
have declined. Supplies in the week ended February 7, were down
14% from a year earlier at their lowest since 1975, according to
the Energy Department.
The fall out effect on Sri
Lanka is already evident. Last week the government stepped in to
stop a fuel hike in kerosene and diesel, saying the increase would
have a severe chain reaction for millions of people amidst
escalating cost of living.
The suspension of the price
hike however was only for diesel and kerosene. Other increases
have already come into effect. The halt on increasing the price of
diesel however at least temporarily has prevented transport costs
from also rising. That this is
inevitable in the event of a war in Iraq, looks ever more
imminent.
Insight team:
Amantha Perera, Dilrukshi
Hadunnetti, Frederica Jansz, Ranee Mohamed and Wilson Gnanadass |