POLITICS

Future depends on aid

By Amantha Perera

Last week was an eventful week. Events were unfolding one after another at breakneck speed. In retrospect, last week indicated the priorities of local political players in the coming months.

The government would be concentrating on the twin issues of peace negotiations and the economy. The revival of the economy is heavily dependent on the progress of the peace talks. The international funds that would be the life line of the ailing economy have been tied to commitment and progress at the talks.

Biding time

The opposition would be biding time - holding rallies around the country calling for the President to assert her power - waiting till the peace talks and the economy both falter. The chances of the joint JVP-SLFP alliance reclaiming power would depend on public tolerance of the UNF policies.

The week was originally expected to be dominated by two very public events, the rally organised by the opposition followed 48 hours later by a government rally.

The rallies, however, became reaction points to the LTTE ship issue when the navy intercepted and destroyed a LTTE ship off Mullaitivu.

At the joint opposition JVP-SLFP rally, the first attempt was made to take advantage of the Mullaitivu incident by Mangala Samaraweera. He said that the order to shoot at the suspect ship came from President Chandrika Kumaratunga while the UNF bigwigs at the Defence Ministry remained inactive.

However, high ranking naval sources said that there was no intervention by the Commander in Chief, certainly not at the level of issuing orders to shoot at the ship. That order originated from the commander of the eastern naval area.

The navy and intelligence knew of the ship by March 9 and surveillance was mounted off Mullaitivu. When Sayura, the navy ship encountered the suspect ship the next day morning around 9.30, Navy Commander Daya Sandagiri was informed. The instructions were to act according to the law and the MoU.

Sandagiri thereafter informed Defence Minister Tilak Marapone of the development. Marapone told the Navy Commander that his instruction to the Defence Secretary was to act under the law and within the MoU. Marapone also instructed that the incident be recorded on video.

The ship which did not have a flag, first began to move away from Sayura while not responding properly over the international communication line when the navy queried.

The navy first fired warning shots over the ship, action according to the Defence Ministry permissible under international regulations. Then the suspect ship turned around and began firing at Sayura. The shooting injured an officer and three sailors on board Sayura.

Then the navy retaliated wrecking the ship and by 10.45, little over an hour after Sayura first encountered the ship it was on fire. The ship sank by 3 p.m.

Later around 1 p.m., Sandagiri met Minister G. L. Peiris at his residence. It was during this meeting that President Kumaratunga first got in touch with the Navy Commander about the incident.

When she was briefed over the phone, the President requested the Navy Commander to submit a report on the incident. It was duly done later in the week.

In this background, Samaraweera's little publicity stunt came into criticism by seniors in the same camp. The feeling was that Samaraweera should have waited till he had concrete evidence before he went public.

Even former foreign minister Lakshman Kadirgamar had aired his displeasure over Samaraweera's public utterance. When he said as much, an official in the President's staff had remarked that Samaraweera may have done so to please the crowds at the meeting.

There is however some confusion about where exactly the incident took place. The navy said that it took place within the territorial waters of Sri Lanka, while the LTTE is adamant that it was in international waters.

The location is clouded in interpretation of where one draws the sea borders. The navy however is sure that it was acting within the exclusive economic zone of Sri Lanka.

Repercussions

From the beginning, the LTTE reaction was bleak. Even when the organisation was not confirming the incident, its officials were of the view that it will have serious repercussions on the peace process. In its initial reaction to the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM), the LTTE emphasised that the sinking of the ship was going to have serious repercussions on the peace talks.

Soon after the ship went down, on Wednesday the LTTE ordered its area commanders to Kilinochchi, which included political heads manning offices in government controlled areas like Jaffna. Initially there was speculation that the LTTE was recalling its political heads from government controlled areas as an act of protest.

However it later transpired that the area heads were summoned for a meeting and at the meeting most of the area leaders had been of the opinion that the LTTE should react strongly to the sinking of the ship. It was after this meeting that Political Wing Head S.P. Thamilchelvan informed the Norwegians that the LTTE leadership was coming under pressure to boycott the next round of talks at least as an act of protest.

The Norwegians for their part were hedging hopes on the meeting between Vidar Helgessen and Velupillai Prabhakaran scheduled for Thursday.

LTTE's position

By Thursday morning the LTTE was indicating that Prabhakaran was going to give the meeting a miss, meaning that the LTTE was hardening its stance. Officials at the Norwegian mission in Colombo and the SLMM were not sure even by noon Thursday whether the meeting was on and on the LTTE's position on next week's talks.

The LTTE leader ultimately did not attend the meeting leaving it in the hands of Anton Balasingham and Thamilchelvan. The main topic at the meeting was the Mullaitivu incident.

The LTTE too has been feeling the pressure of what government negotiator Milinda Moragoda recently termed as 'pressure to deliver.' Thamilchelvan told journalists visiting Wanni recently that there was a perception among LTTErs that nothing substantial was being achieved at the peace talks that were being dragged on.

Sources close to the government nevertheless told The Sunday Leader that they did not fear any drastic action on the part of the LTTE despite Prabhakaran's boycott of the meeting with the Norwegians - any action that might have far reaching consequences.

The government's reason for breathing easy was mainly due to international support that the peace process has been receiving, especially from the US. Sources indicated that the international pressure to negotiate would keep the LTTE at the peace table till there is a change of world opinion.

True to form, one of the first to react to the Mullaitivu incident was US Ambassador Ashley Wills.

Apart from the sinking of the ship and the reverberations, there was a lot taking place in Colombo as well. The JVP-SLFP rally was a success, at least when counting the heads. There was close to 250,000 participants in the rally. The last time such a big crowd was seen at Town Hall was during the UNP's Jana Bala Meheyuma. The supporters of the JVP-SLFP alliance were thinking on the same lines as the likes of the late Gamini Athukorale and others, hoping that the public rally would be the beginning of the end for the UNF.

Speakers at the rally said as much. Those like Anura Bandaranaike and Wimal Weerawansa gave an inkling into the opposition's plans. Bandaranaike was quite adamant that Kumaratunga should use her executive powers and get hold of at least some ministries, the two that were bandied were media and defence.

The battle cry was that the people's patience was running thin and for Kumaratunga to take command. Such a slogan repeated over and over again at public rallies would create the environment for Kumaratunga to move against the government if and when she feels opportune.

However, the rally also showed how fickle any JVP-SLFP alliance could be. When close associate of former President Ranasinghe Premadasa, Hudson Samarasinghe commenced addressing  the rally, Weerawansa informed SLFP General Secretary Maithripala Sirisena to remove Samarasinghe. The request was carried out then and there.

The incident may have been minor, however it showed that the SLFP was totally under the JVP's command.

The Marxists find themselves in a win-win situation if the alliance succeeds in wresting control from the Ranil Wickremesinghe government.

The blue participants in the rally were crying slogans of a joint JVP-SLFP rally, but the red Marxists were tactful enough to cry slogans against the government and nothing of a joint JVP-SLFP government with emphasis on the union.

The rally was supposed to be devoid of any fanfare directed at individuals, but Bandaranaike was the exception. He was garlanded near the stage and hailed as the next president while Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapakse stood by nonchalantly.

Government reaction

The day after the rally, Kumaratunga met with the man she was supposedly seeking to oust, Wickremesinghe. At the meeting Kumaratunga had queried about the Mullaitivu incident and wanted the issue of arms smuggling to be taken up at talks.

Wickremesinghe later announced at the Kandy rally that while the incident was being investigated by the SLMM, it would come up at the next round of peace talks. The two had also discussed the issue of provincial councils and money allocations.

During talks with the JVP, the SLFP has been toying with the idea of launching its efforts to oust the UNF with a provincial council election. The council that is under the microscope is the southern one where joint JVP-SLFP power is at its highest.

The government's reaction to the growing rumblings by the opposition and discontent among the public on the cost of living came 24 hours after the Kumaratunga-Wickremesinghe meeting. It was at the Kandy rally, where the former PA rebels publicly acknowledged UNP membership, that Wickremesinghe came out with his plan for the immediate future.

He said that foreign donors have indicated that they would come with aid for the next two to three years, if the peace process is on track. Referring to the coming months as a critical period, Wickremesinghe said that in the event of a war in the gulf, the government will absorb increases in oil prices for two months and that Indian Oil has agreed to supply Sri Lanka with 45 days of fuel supplies.

International commitment

Wickremesinghe said that the first signs of international commitment would be seen at the donor conference in June in Japan. Prime Minister of Japan, Junichiro Koizumi will head the summit.

The UNF will also activate the Yovun Senankaya concept and a training programme directed at generating self employment in the coming months. The first batch to commence next month will induct between 30,000 to 40,000 within the first year. The other programme will be beneficial to about 5,000.

Next month, the government will introduce legislation enabling tax relief to investments made till March 31 next year. The investments would be entitled to relief depending on the employment generation. The chances of such legislation, criticised by the opposition that the UNF was only serving the business community, is also very high.

Wickremesinghe's speech more or less outlined how the government was going to tackle the coming months. To be fair, he said in public that he was not yet in a position to give jobs, but was putting his plans in place. While the opposition was reminding the general public of the end of patience, Wickremesinghe was appealing for more.

He was forceful than usual in saying that he did not want to be a hero by sending youths to war. Other speakers at the rally indicated that the government might come up with salary increases and jobs before the year is through.

Rural Economy Minister and Deputy Finance Minister, Bandula Gunawardena said that before November there will be salary increases and new jobs. It is clear that the government is getting wind of public discontent on the cost of living, especially from the outstations.

Fisheries Minister Mahinda Wijesekera reminded the UNP hierarchy that the time has come to take a decision to move away from World Bank and IMF dictates and think of creating jobs and other benefits to the voters. "If there are jobs then we are ready to face an election at any time," he said.

The twin issues of giving in too much to the LTTE and the economic woes are weighing on the government with the possibility of Kumaratunga dissolving parliament at the worst possible time and going for snap elections.

At the rally, Minister S. B. Dissanayake assured Wickremesinghe that he would never allow this government to fall. He told the Premier in private that from what he knew of Kumaratunga, given the present situation, she would be too scared to dissolve.

The government does not fear dissolution any time soon, but is aware that if the rot is allowed to set in, it would be only a question of time before Kumaratunga moves for the kill. The President's foot soldiers too were not talking of an immediate take-over of power.

Dissanayake, for his part, is also promoting the idea of submitting an impeachment against the President, thereby closing the dissolution option.

It was pretty clear that the government is looking at the Japan donor meeting to be the saving grace. "The future of the government will depend on the outcome," sources from Temple Trees told The Sunday Leader.

The government is anticipating donors to pledge between US $ 500 to 600 million. Already the Japanese government has pledged Rs. 26 billion in aid for north east reconstruction as well as development projects in the south.

Salary increase

Depending on the outcome of the donor meeting, sources revealed that Wickremesinghe will go ahead with the cabinet reshuffle as well. They also confirmed that the government was thinking seriously about salary increases and said that it was more or less a certainty. Wickremesinghe has already outlined areas that need urgent attention, and is waiting till he has the funds to go ahead with them.

The sooner the foreign funds arrive, the better. The persisting economic problems have been partially attributed to the fact the US $ 70 million pledged at the Oslo donor meeting is yet to get into the system. The delay has led to frustration within the LTTE as well.

Sources close to the Prime Minister said that Wickremesinghe should be aware of the Kumaratunga factor that is standing in the wings.

The salary increases and price control measures are aimed at minimising the burden on the population and to make sure that discontent does not spiral out of control. UNP party organisers at grassroot level have been getting feedback that the economic woes have begun to bite deep and party loyalties are waning because purses are empty.

The immediate battle that Wickremesinghe has to face is tackling the wrath of voters who are used to electing leaders for immediate benefits, while balancing the peace process and economic reforms.

Kumaratunga has the luxury of waiting by the ring side and entering to claim the prize if the situation permits it.

The Prime Minister meanwhile will have to do the fighting.