SPOTLIGHT

Iraq war: Repercussions
for Sri Lanka

By Asgar Hussein and Frederica Jansz

Sri Lanka stands to suffer serious economic repercussions if the war in Iraq drags on and spreads outside its borders. Such a scenario could result in migrant workers being repatriated, tea exports slumping, tourism declining and the cost of living rising due to increased oil prices.

However, a short term conflict is unlikely to have very adverse consequences.

Analysts believe that if the war drags on for over two months, the global economy and business confidence will be badly hit.

Such a situation could radicalise and destabilise the Middle East and possibly even lead to regime changes in countries such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait which are perceived to be pro American.

"If this happens, there will be an increase in the cost of oil which is an important aspect of Sri Lanka's imports," said independent financial consultant and former head of JP Morgan Research in Sri Lanka, Amal Sanderatne.

He said that this would push up the costs of industrial output and transportation thereby leading to an increase in the cost of living.

The government may even be compelled to subsidise petroleum products, a move which will impact on the budget deficit.

There is also speculation that Saddam Hussein might order Iraqi oil wells to be set on fire before they fall into enemy hands. If this happens, and the Americans are unable to contain the infernos, then too oil prices will go up.

Migrant workers

The Sri Lankan economy will be adversely affected if our migrant workers have to be repatriated. There are around 600,000 Sri Lankans working in three countries that border Iraq - Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Jordan. If Iraq attacks Saudi Arabia or Kuwait, the safety of Sri Lankans will be at stake and the need for repatriation may arise.

This would lead to the loss of remittances that play an important role in the local economy. Last year, the remittances from Sri Lankan migrant workers amounted to a staggering Rs. 120 billion.

Another consequence of a long drawn conflict would be the loss of export income from tea, our major export commodity.

Last year, Sri Lanka earned Rs. 32 billion from tea exports to the Middle East.

Sri Lanka's other exports could also decline due to a weaker global economy.

As such, with export income falling and import costs rising, the country's balance of payments situation will be unhealthy, said Sanderatne.

He added however that Sri Lanka would enjoy one advantage if the conflict is long drawn - natural rubber prices will go up.

If oil prices stay high, it would increase the cost of synthetic rubber (of which petroleum is the main raw material). This will create a greater demand for natural rubber.

However, a quick war - over in less than a month - will bring global oil prices down and benefit the local economy, according to Sanderatne. Speculation that the war would be short has lowered world oil prices during the past few days.

He also noted that investors anticipate a short war, which is why stock prices in the US and Europe rebounded by over 10% recently.

A quick victory for the US led forces would mean that the 'oil for food' programme will be scrapped and the Iraqi tea market opening up - a situation that would benefit local tea exports.

Tourism

According to Sanderatne, a likely scenario is that the war will end quickly and oil prices will drop, but American and Western targets will be increasingly prone to terrorist attacks. If this happens oil prices would remain low, but business confidence would be down and tourism will be affected.

In such a scenario, Sri Lanka stands to gain in two ways. Firstly, the LTTE will be compelled to stick to the peace process due to continuous international pressure against terrorism.

Secondly, the fact that Sri Lanka is predominantly non-Muslim would mean that it will be considered comparatively safer for tourism and to some extent investment.

Sanderatne noted that investors already in Sri Lanka are used to dealing with risks. However, Muslim countries like Indonesia and Malaysia will appear less safe if terrorist attacks are carried out against Western targets. In such a context, Sri Lanka together with India, China and Vietnam stand to benefit as preferred destinations.

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Tiger laws and lawmakers

By Frederica Jansz  In The Wanni

Separate from state law, judicial courts and a constitutionally elected government, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) has come up with its own formula for dispensing justice in Tiger controlled areas. Opening a new 'appeal court' at Kilinochchi on Tuesday, March 11, the LTTE held an impressive and colourful ceremony.

Flanked by two dozen judges including seven women judges, the court ceremony was attended by a bevy of lawyers both male and female as well as law students, for whom the Tigers plan to build a law faculty adjoining the same premises as the District and Appeal Court at Kilinochchi. 

Eliyathamby Pararajasingham, alias "Para" was master of ceremonies at the opening. Not a lawyer by profession, Para however is in charge of the LTTE courts and the judiciary. Para has served the LTTE in this capacity since 1994. 

To administer its judicial system, the LTTE established a department called the "Tamil Eelam Department of Justice and Law," on July 3, 1994. This was ceremonially inaugurated by S. P. Thamilchelvan in Jaffna, and the first appointee as its head, Eliyathamby Pararajasingham who was then a member of parliament from the EROS group was named as the head of the LTTE judicial department.

Sidelined

The LTTE has now appointed S. Oppilan as its chief justice. Oppilan was a member of a three judge bench, when the LTTE established its first district court at Chunnakam on August 21, 1993.

Oppilan however appeared severely sidelined at the ceremony at Kilinochchi on March 11, while Para and the LTTE's chief guest at the opening, Anton Balasingham took center stage. 

Even the LTTE's Political Wing Leader, S. P. Thamilchelvan figured more prominently as he sat with the two chief guests, Anton Balasingham and his wife Adele, together with Para on stage. Oppilan was not favoured a seat with the LTTE hierarchy, but called up towards the end of the ceremony to end the proceedings with a final speech.

This was after Anton Balasingham had titillated invitees, members of the Tamil press and contingents of Tiger cadres including its own police, with a stirring speech. His address dealt little with the LTTE opening of a new court, but more with the ambiguous peace process and divisive politics in Sri Lanka's south. 

Making scathing remarks against President Chandrika Kumaratunga whom Balasingham repeatedly referred to as "amma," he drew loud laughter from the crowd as he dotted his speech with Tamil anecdotes. The butt end of his wrath and humour being all politicians in the south, except Ranil Wickremesinghe, Milinda Moragoda and Prof. G. L. Peiris, all of whom Balasingham reiterated, "are decent gentlemen dedicated to the peace process." 

K. Kesavan, a lawyer present at the ceremony said the LTTE courts would function under the same penal code system followed by state judiciary, while the Tiger's new appeal court would also run similarly to the state run appeal court. "The only difference would be that the punishment in the courts of Tamil Eelam would perhaps be more severe," he said.

The LTTE introduced the "Penal Code of Tamil Eelam" just months after Chandrika Kumaratunga assumed office on December 1, 1994, consisting of 439  Penal Sections. It is these provisions that are practiced in the courts established. According to the government, these provisions are indeed based on the Penal Code of Sri Lanka though some clauses have been deleted and others freshly introduced. 

Responding to a question on this issue, Anton Balasingham told The Sunday Leader there are other small changes in the abdication of law in the LTTE courts who would refer their decisions, abiding by Thesavalama law. It is the traditional law of the Tamil people, he said, explaining this law is the property law practised in Jaffna for the last so many centuries. "Even when Jaffna is under the administration of the Sri Lankan state they accept the Thesavalama law," he asserted, reiterating that it is through the Thesavalama law that property arrangements can be worked out among the Tamils. 

Citing examples, Balasingham said in similar vein the Muslims have their own laws in the east. He maintained that the Sri Lankan government has accepted the traditional laws of the Tamils, Muslims and Kandyan law. A federal system in the future, he said, would allow the Tamil people to have their own regional autonomy. "At present, the government won't accept this new court of law. But once a federal system is worked out the government will accept this court of law which would be linked to the judicial administration of the whole of Sri Lanka," he asserted.

Speedy justice

Explaining plans involving a federal structure in the event a final political solution is negotiated, Balasingham said within a federal autonomy there would be regional courts as well as a regional police and a regional administration for the Tamils. 

He said the north and east would become a federal unit where the Tamils would have their own administration, own judicial system and a police linked to the rest of Sri Lanka, where the center and the regions would share power. The difference he said would be that the LTTE's judiciary and courts of law would get legitimacy and recognition from the Sinhala dominated south.

According to Tamil lawyers at Kilinochchi, Tamil people not just in the Wanni, but in the eastern district of Batticaloa as well have been flocking to make use of the LTTE's judicial system which has been extended in the east of the island as well. 

The pro Tamil website, Tamilnet has reported that LTTE courthouses recently established in the Batticaloa District are proving so popular that many Tamil residents are even crossing over from Sri Lankan government controlled areas to file cases. 

Scores of cases are being decided each day in the new court house, according to court officials. Most of these are civil cases, ranging from disputes over land to adultery, and these are generally settled in a day or two. 

In stark contrast to the courts in government territory, the LTTE courts are believed to dispense justice that much faster. Even cases such as blackmail, murder or other more serious crimes are in most instances resolved within a month.

Questionable

Penalties vary from fines to jail terms. Capital punishment is yet to be used. The LTTE law books are written in classical Tamil. Older, established laws form the basis, but these are regularly updated and extended to cater to the social issues that the LTTE has focused on addressing, such as the dowry and caste systems. 

Despite its popularity with the Tamil people, the LTTE judicial system is questionable, as it is not known what formal qualifications these young 'judges' hold. A look at some two dozen judges at the Kilinochchi opening ceremony is proof that the LTTE judges are indeed extremely young (in their early twenties) and it is not certain what qualifications or experience they have to chair a court of law and dispense justice.

The Tamil people however when spoken to expressed complete satisfaction with the judges' abilities. They believe that the LTTE judicial system is run with integrity. The courts in fact is perhaps the LTTE's main contact with the Tamil public apart from its police stations.

The courts however are not independent of the LTTE. All judges are chosen by the LTTE and carefully screened and tested before being appointed. They all have to be members of the LTTE as well. Successful applicants are trained in LTTE law and an examination process selects the final graduates. 

The Tamil people when spoken to at Kilinochchi believe these judges are impartial and professional. If there are disagreements with their judgements at the district courts, the new appeal court where senior judges will sit are expected to serve as a balance to ensure justice is impartial and dispensed with a fair balance.

Tamil lawyer Kesavan, speaking to The Sunday Leader at the ceremonial opening at Kilinochchi said law inside LTTE territory is not treated as an entrepreneurial profession in itself. This is apparently to ensure that wealth does not bring an unfair advantage to defendants or plaintiffs. Legal costs he claimed are kept to a minimum. Also, if by confession a lawyer is aware someone is guilty then that person cannot be defended.

The LTTE has established courts across much of the areas which are under its control. In general, there is a perception and acceptance by the Tamil public that the LTTE's law enforcement by its own police and strange judicial systems have significantly reduced crime in Tiger controlled territory.

Underlying any authority these courts may carry of course is LTTE Chief Velupillai Prabhakaran. Having ruled by the gun for well neigh 20 years, Prabhakaran is not about to let his unilateral decisions be subject to judicial authority.

For instance, despite the Tamil Eelam courts having ordered a Sinhalese soldier and policeman to be further remanded for straying into Tiger territory while armed and in uniform, Prabhakaran ignored this decision when he ordered their immediate release to the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) two weeks ago.

It is obvious that the LTTE's judicial system will be under the complete control and dominance of the Tiger movement. This month's ceremonial opening of the courts at Kilinochchi only validated this perception as Tamil lawyers, judges and law students stood by in total subjugation to the might of the Tigers whose military and police together with Para and Anton Balasingham dominated the event.

Inside every LTTE court house a picture of Velupillai Prabhakaran hangs above the judge's chair and over his photograph is the Tiger emblem - the face of a roaring Tiger placed between two guns.

LTTE courts however are not a recent feature. The first LTTE district court was established at Chunnakam on August 21, 1993. Three judges K. Thesigan, S. Poovantan and S. Oppilan (now chief justice) were appointed to this court. Thereafter, eight more courts were systematically established in Jaffna and the Wanni in areas under LTTE control.

Ceasefire violation

Seven days after opening its first court at Chunnakam, the Tigers opened another district court on August 28, 1993, at Chavakachcheri followed by another court at Point Pedro in September that year and another in Jaffna on October 23, 1993.

On January 5, 1994, the LTTE established a district court in Kilinochchi with another being opened five days later in Mullaitivu. On December 5, 1994, the Tigers opened a district court in Vavuniya.

An appeal court was also opened in Jaffna on March 19, 1994 and another district court in Mannar on January 14, 1995. 

Tamil Eelam Law Colleges were established in 1994 at Pasilan, Mandapam and Jaffna. Therefore, the concept of a law college too is not novel in the present day context. 

With the commencement of Operation Riviresa to regain the peninsula, the LTTE had no option but to abandon the judicial system established by them in Jaffna and most parts of the Wanni, which were regained by the security forces. However, they have continued to maintain the district courts of Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu including the courts opened in Tiger territory in the east.

On November 23 last year the Tigers opened another district court at Palugamam in Batticaloa followed by another on December 2, 2002 at Katiparichchan in Trincomalee. There are in addition to these two, seven other LTTE courts of law in operation at present. 

President Chandrika Kumaratunga meanwhile has said that the LTTE is threatening the sovereignty of Sri Lanka and violating the ceasefire agreement by opening its own courts of law, police stations, banks and prisons. 

She has vowed to use her executive powers to prevent the dismemberment of Sri Lanka, which she says as a result of the LTTE's actions is dividing the nation on ethnic lines.