POLITICS

Elections and PA's confusion By Suranimala   While the government grappled with the fall out over the Emirates deal in addition to the fluid political scenario last week, the opposition was in a state of confusion following the failure to clinch a deal with the JVP. The PA despite internal rumblings was hoping for a deal with the JVP that would enable it to defeat the UNP at a snap general election and recapture power but with an agreement increasingly elusive, the opposition was at a political dead end, uncertain what its next course of action should be.

Political marriage on hold

A political marriage with the JVP was always going to be problematic for the SLFP particularly in working out a solution to the north east crisis given the internationalisation of the issue and moderates in the party including the likes of President's International Affairs Advisor, Lakshman Kadirgamar advised caution to Kumaratunga who in turn took a tough stand insisting the Marxists agree to her 2000 draft constitution.

And despite pressure mounted on by Gampaha District MP, Anura Bandaranaike, the SLFP was also holding back on conceding key positions in a possible alliance to the JVP, realising only too well in the long run not only would the party be swallowed up by the reds but even a future government will be a complete prisoner at the hands of Wimal Weerawansa and his comrades.

Further to a powerful group within the SLFP opposing an alliance with the JVP, even constituent parties within the PA such as the LSSP had openly expressed dissent and any alliance without the old left would have led to the SLFP being projected as tilting to the far left, thereby not only alienating it from the minorities but also the international community.

In this backdrop, an alliance with the JVP was fraught with danger for the SLFP and the President slowly but surely started retracing her steps while publicly stating an alliance was imminent. The President on her part was walking a tightrope not wanting to be accused of standing in the way of the alliance.

At the same time, the President knew only too well, without a pact with the JVP, not only would she not have a ghost of a chance of defeating the UNP in parliament but also in an election given the ground realities today.

What the President hoped for earlier was to strike a deal with the JVP, dissolve the southern and north central provincial councils, contest in coalition, defeat the UNP and move for a domino effect.

But with an agreement with the JVP now becoming problematic, she is running out of options with time too fast running out for the 2005 presidential election.

This deadline has caused further confusion in opposition ranks given the financial dimension to it. For, if a presidential election is to be held first as scheduled, then the PA would sooner than later have to identify its candidate and start projecting him or her.

The "family business"

And if this is done, then the President who has described "politics" as the "family business" effectively loses control of the party machinery, which will naturally revolve around the new candidate.

When that happens it is the new candidate who would attract all the funding for the election. And we are talking big money here, all of which does not necessarily go to the campaign.

This in turn would enable the candidate to build up a financial base for the general election to follow and even finance candidates of his choice. That would of course naturally increase his power base both in and out of parliament.

On the other hand, President Kumaratunga in such a situation will be a lame duck and with little patronage to offer will not attract any funding even to help her loyalists, a fact not lost on her advisors or those aspiring candidates for the PA's presidential election nomination.

There is also no gainsaying in the fact, the longer the PA delays in projecting its candidate, the chances of making any impact at a presidential election becomes remote.

The UNP on the other hand has no such worries, with whatever election being called assured to see Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe leading the way.

This then is the dilemma facing the President and the People's Alliance, having all its carefully worked out plans thrown into disarray due to a lack of cohesive policies and internal dissension to which Anura Bandaranaike has made no mean contribution.

The extent of this confusion was underscored in Matale last week when Anura Bandaranaike addressing a public rally vowed not only would an agreement with the JVP be reached but that the President would sack the Prime Minister and the cabinet of ministers and appoint a prime minister of her choice and go for a general election.

The President herself a week earlier addressing Samurdhi niyamakas said they should be ready to work hard from November under a government controlled by her.

A different tune

But on Wednesday, August 6, President Kumaratunga who hosted some media personnel for dinner sang a different tune, frowning upon Anura Bandaranaike for making irresponsible statements. Among the PA members who clinked glasses with the invitees from the media were Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapakse, MPs Lakshman Kadirgamar, Sarath Amunugama, Mangala Samaraweera and Spokesman Harim Peiris. Bandaranaike was not an invitee.

And the President, asked a pointed question at this function by a journalist whether she intends sacking the Prime Minister and forming her own cabinet and going for a general election as stated by Bandaranaike, replied in the negative.

She said while the country would welcome a decision by her to sack the Prime Minister and the cabinet of ministers, she had no intention of doing so.

The President went on to say Bandaranaike had no business to speak on her behalf and if he had in fact made those comments, he would be "severely reprimanded" by her.

The President also indicated at this dinner she does not intend having the provincial council elections on a staggered basis but in one go.

Whether the President made this comment to sell a dummy to the media is not known but that the PA members themselves are equally confused was also indicative from a question posed by Kurunegala District MP, S.B. Nawinna at the PA executive committee meeting two days earlier on Monday, August 5.

At this meeting Nawinna said there is talk of the impending dissolution of parliament in October or November and inquired which election was going to be held first, parliamentary or provincial.

In the absence of the President at this meeting, it took Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapakse to respond, stating no clear picture has emerged yet but that they should be ready for provincial polls first.

Interestingly an insight as to the status of the agreement with the JVP was also revealed at this meeting in consequence of a letter to the executive committee written by LSSP General Secretary, Batty Weerakoon, who incidentally gave the meeting a miss. Among those present were Mahinda Rajapakse, Nimal Siripala de Silva, S.B. Nawinna, Berty Premalal Dissanayake, D.M. Jayaratne, Kingsley Wickremaratne, Alavi Mowlana, Dinesh Gunawardena, Raja Collure, D.E.W. Gunasekera and Tissa Vitharana.

Weerakoon in his letter to the executive committee had requested that the subject of an agreement with the JVP should not be put on the agenda since it has not been discussed with the constituent parties and in keeping with this request, it was not.

But it was revealed according to the minutes of the previous meeting held on July 10 that Badulla District MP, Nimal Siripala de Silva had said the final agreement with the JVP would be signed on July 13.

When this was brought to light at the meeting, De Silva flatly denied making such a statement with PA General Secretary, D.M. Jayaratne equally insistent it was in his notes.

Finally, the members were told there is no agreement in place and that the President has said she will sign any agreement only after informing the PA executive committee.

Strategy

Despite this state of confusion in the opposition, the UNP was preparing for all eventualities and Prime Minister Wickremesinghe on Monday, August 5, spent the whole day in Sirikotha working out strategy for the provincial council elections.

In fact, at the working committee meeting later in the day, Wickremesinghe asked the party to be ready for the provincial polls at very short notice and said it was important the UNP wins every province.

"We have turned the country around and are on the road to recovery. The first one and half years was tough but we are now set to deliver on our promises to the people. We have not done everything we have promised but are well on the way to doing so. We have however achieved in this period what Chandrika could not have dreamt of achieving in seven years," the Prime Minister said.

He went on to say the party must put a formidable team of candidates for the election, a view endorsed by Deputy Leader Karu Jayasuriya who said it was equally important to have a united team.

The Prime Minister continuing said the party must put an advertisement in the newspapers calling for nominations to attract the best talent, with former Treasurer Milroy Perera suggesting even party candidates should be asked to apply for nominations.

With that agreed, the Prime Minister put the party on an election footing, waiting for President Kumaratunga to call provincial elections.

At the same time the government was also proceeding with preparations for the peace talks subsequent to receiving the LTTE's response to the interim administration proposal.

Italy, which has assumed the European Union presidency has already indicated her willingness to host a round of talks if the parties are agreeable.

Forging ahead

That the government was prepared to weather the storm and forge ahead with an interim administration was also clear after the cabinet of ministers held its ground on a move by the President to amend the draft minutes of the cabinet meeting of July 9, where the interim administration issue was raised.

In a letter to Cabinet Secretary, N.V.K.K. Weragoda on July 30, the President wanted the minutes amended as per her letter which is published below.

Mr. N.V.K.K. Weragoda,
Secretary to the Cabinet,
Cabinet Office,
Colombo 1.

Note to the cabinet on Interim Administrative Mechanism for North and East

I tabled a note dated 09.07.2003 under the above heading at the cabinet meeting held on the same day. In the draft minutes of that meeting, this is recorded as "its contents were noted."

However, you will recall that there was a discussion on this note at that meeting. This discussion may be summarised as follows:

"In response to the recommendation made in this note by Her Excellency the President, the Hon. Prime Minister and Hon. (Prof.) G.L. Peiris, Minister of Constitutional Affairs, stated that the proposal on the interim administration will be only a general framework and that it was not possible to discuss this at the cabinet. They were awaiting the LTTE response to the proposal after which, a detailed proposal will be worked out. At that point, they agreed to discuss this with the President and the cabinet. Her Excellency requested that even the general framework be discussed at the cabinet. Hon. Peiris said that this was not possible."

Accordingly, I direct you to correct the relevant portion of the minutes of the cabinet meeting held on 09.07.2003, as above and submit the minutes to me for my signature, as the head of the cabinet of ministers.

Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga,
President

However the cabinet of ministers said the position taken up originally by Minister Peiris was correct and the minutes were approved not as per the President's request but Minister Peiris' statement.

That is to say, Minister Peiris informed cabinet it could not be useful to discuss the draft framework at this stage as opposed to saying it was not possible.

The minute in question under item 35 was approved on Wednesday August 6 rejecting the President's version as follows:

"35 cabinet paper 03/1274/100/028, a note to the cabinet dated 09.07.2003 tabled by the President on "Interim Administrative Mechanism for North and East" - in response to the recommendations made in this note by Her Excellency the President, Minister of Constitutional Affairs stated that the proposal on the interim administration will be only a general framework and it will not be in a form which would warrant discussion at the cabinet. On receipt of the LTTE response to the proposal, a detailed proposal will be worked out. At that point the proposal would be discussed with the President and the cabinet. President requested that even the general framework be discussed at the cabinet. Minister of Constitutional Affairs explained that this would not be useful at this stage."

Thus, Minister Peiris' contention it "would not be useful" to discuss the proposal in cabinet at this stage as opposed to Kumaratunga's contention that the Minister said it cannot be discussed was upheld. Kumaratunga too relented at this stage.

Battle

But the President is preparing for battle on this issue as indicated to several journalists at the function she hosted on Wednesday, August 6, soon after the cabinet meeting.

The President, who got involved in a heated exchange of words with one of her guests, Sudaroli newspaper Editor, Ratnasingham said she will oppose the move to grant an interim administration without a final solution in place.

She said given the fact the LTTE had a standing army, standing navy, police and a court system, an interim administration would only legitimise it.

But the President said she was not opposed to a fully fledged federal system as articulated in her 1997 draft constitution but was certain LTTE Leader Pirapaharan will never accept it. The President said she will cut her neck and send it to the LTTE if a federal solution is accepted.

Nevertheless, when Prime Minister Wickremesinghe met the President on Thursday, August 7, prior to his departure for China, Kumaratunga was not as hostile though concerns regarding the LTTE's army and navy were raised.

Prime Minister Wickremesinghe however assured the President the interests of all communities would be safeguarded in formulating an interim administrative set up and that she too would be consulted once a final draft is ready.

The President who the previous day told journalists she despises Wickremesinghe and will in no way work towards cohabitation with him showed no signs of that hostility at the meeting, instead discussing at length the payment of compensation to victims of political violence since 1977.

Be that as it may, Prime Minister Wickremesinghe has informed his party there was a need to introduce a new political culture to the country and would work towards it tirelessly.

And on the very Thursday, he met with opposition party leaders in parliament to further that objective and among those present were Mahinda Rajapakse, Dinesh Gunawardena, Raja Collure, R. Yogarajan, R. Sambandan, Douglas Devananda, D. Sidtharthan, Ministers G.L. Peiris, Karu Jayasuriya, W.M.J. Lokuban-dara, Mahinda Samarasinghe and Rauf Hakeem. JVP's Wimal Weerawansa had excused himself from the meeting with a request not to take any decisions in his absence.

At this meeting for which all the preparatory paper work and drafts were formulated by Minister Peiris, Opposition Leader Rajapakse said the PA was agreeable to the appointment of MEP Leader Dinesh Gunawardena as chairman of the select committee on electoral reforms.

With that out of the way, the issue of oversight committees in parliament was taken up for discussion with the PA asking for time to decide.

Oversight committees

Minister Peiris at this point said it was difficult to proceed with the oversight committees without knowing whether the opposition is prepared to accept the chairman's post.

Said Collure: "Even if the opposition is not willing, the committee can be appointed."

Replied Peiris: "No, the idea is to have the opposition chairing the committee to make a difference. Otherwise it will be no different to the consultative committee."

Agreeing with the Minister was Mahinda Samarasinghe and finally with the JVP also not present, it was decided to wait for the next meeting before reaching a final decision on this matter.

There was however consensus with regard to the procedure for making appointments to the Bribery Commission with the membership to be expanded from three to five and enabling the commission to discharge its functions notwithstanding the death of a member provided there is a quorum of four of which one member at least will need to have judicial experience.

More importantly, there was consensus among the parties on normative principles governing public life starting with the nomination of candidates for elections on which a draft working paper was forwarded by Minister Peiris.

The thinking was that given the erosion of public confidence in the present system where members use their political clout to crossover when unreasonable demands are not met, a system will be worked to prevent such crossovers.

It was further discussed that persons with criminal track records or pending cases should not be considered for nominations whilst also working out the principles governing funding of elections.

Positive developments no doubt but given the hostility between the executive and the legislature, it remains to be seen whether these laudable objectives can be realised.

For now however, it is politics as usual.

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