POLITICS

CBK's spanner in the
peace process and Hakeem's dilemma

By Suranimala While the government planned in the upcoming budget to pass on the economic benefits of stringent fiscal discipline practised by the UNF since assuming office in December 2001 to the people and resume peace talks for greater stability, President Chandrika Kumaratunga threw a well calculated spanner in the works last week to derail the entire process. The timing of President Kumaratunga in throwing her spanner could not have come at a worse time politically for Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and was aimed at attracting the maximum political advantage in the short term for the PA but which could have disastrous political consequences for the PA and the country in the mid to long term.

Given the tense security situation in the east following the killing of four Muslim youth in a matter of days, the President announced last week through her spokesman she was considering the demerger of the north east in view of the developments in the east, thereby adding a new dimension to the crisis.

Threat

The President's threat came the very day a team of LTTE delegates headed by Political Wing Leader, S.P. Tamilselvan was leaving for Paris to formulate the Tigers' response on the provisional administration proposal the government forwarded, thus effectively casting a shadow over the entire exercise.

For, any move by the President to demerge the north east at this stage would make the entire process an exercise in futility since the LTTE will under no circumstance sit down for talks on a provisional administration proposal in a demerged north east - a merger which for all the upheavals since the signing of the Indo-Lanka agreement in 1987 remained intact through four presidencies.

Thus the calculated statement by the President at a time the LTTE was sitting down to formulate its response on the proposal had all the makings of a Machiavellian move aimed at derailing the peace process, cater to hardline Muslim and Sinhala opinion and throw the government into a quandary in the lead up to the provincial council elections which Kumaratunga is expected to call any time after the first week of September.

The problem faced by the President is that the North Western (Wayamba) Provincial Council election has to be held before January 2004 and unless she goes for the dissolution of all councils earlier, then they would come on a staggered basis, which the PA believes will be disastrous fearing the use of strong arm tactics by the ruling coalition at a concentrated election.

And if the President loses the Wayamba poll, there will be a domino effect in the other provinces, which would be interpreted as a fresh mandate for the UNP's agenda on the economy as well as the peace process making Kumaratunga's office impotent for the rest of her tenure.

Thus, the President needs a sound platform for the provincial elections to woo not just the Sinhala votes but also the Muslims to stay in political contention and the demerger issue is as powerful as any if projected correctly.

Such a move however would effectively alienate the Tamil people from the PA and also any chances a Kumaratunga-led government will have in the future of negotiating with the LTTE but for now Kumaratunga is looking at the immediate gains to be accrued given the fact time is fast running out for her Presidency.

Defeat at the provincial elections Kumaratunga knows only too well will make a subsequent dissolution of parliament before the 2005 presidential election almost impossible and with it any chances of her making a comeback under a system where the executive presidency is abolished.

Thus it was an all or nothing gambit for Kumaratunga with her personal political fortunes taking precedence over the country's overall stability.

To start with, the Muslim representatives from the east have for sometime now been calling for the demerger of the north east with the possibility of a separate provisional administration in the Muslim majority areas in the east also mooted and in that context the President's threat would not only endear her to the Muslims in the short term but put Muslim Congress Leader Rauf Hakeem under tremendous pressure.

In such a situation Hakeem will have to decide whether he is to back the President's call or continue to sail with the government each of which is fraught with danger for the young SLMC Leader.

For, if he goes with the President's call, then his position in the government becomes untenable and there would have to be parting of ways and the Muslims would have to face open warfare with the LTTE, consequences of which can be disastrous.

On the other hand, if he sees the President's move as a short term political gimmick and the serious impact it will have on the peace process and overall national stability, then he would have to call the President's bluff and face the short term political consequences of his actions and oppose the demerger at this point of time given the very real possibility of peace talks resuming shortly.

Either way, the government will be forced to face the capriciousness of the President and the attendant consequences with the very real possibility of the peace talks breaking down due to no fault of the Prime Minister.

That in turn would lead to grave instability in the country, sending haywire economic projections including a peak tourist season, propelling the country back into a doomsday scenario.

Lose-lose situation

These scenarios becoming reality however are dependent on how serious the President is in carrying out her threat, which having been made will place her in a lose-lose situation if not proceeded with, given the fast approaching D-day, November 17.

The D-day of November 17 is of course the date by which she would have to call for a referendum in the east or decide whether or not the people of that province want the merger to continue.

The merger was brought into force following the Indo-Lanka Agreement by President J.R. Jayewardene in terms of Section 37(1)(a) of the Provincial Councils Act No. 42 of 1987. The 13th Amendment to the Constitution was what paved the way for the Provincial Councils Act.

The section states - "The President may by proclamation declare that the provinces of this subsection shall apply to any two or three adjoining provinces specified in such proclamation and thereupon such provinces shall form one administrative unit, having one elected provincial council, one governor, one chief minister and one board of ministers for the period commencing from the date of the first election to such provincial council and ending on the date of the poll referred to in subsection (2) of this section, or if there is more than one date fixed for such poll, the last of such dates."

At the same time, Section 37(2)(b) states - "The President may, from time to time, at his discretion, by subsequent orders published in the gazette postpone the date or dates of such poll."

It is in terms of this latter section the holding of the referendum has been postponed every year from 1988 to date by Presidents J.R. Jayewardene, Ranasinghe Premadasa, D.B. Wijetunge and Chandrika Kumaratunga, through gazette notification.

The last gazette notification issued by Kumaratunga postponing the referendum in the Eastern Province expires on November 17 and unless President Kumaratunga issues another gazette postponing the referendum by another year, the Elections Department will be legally bound to proceed with the conduct of a referendum posing the question to the people whether or not they want the merger to continue.

Thus, the President has no inherent power to demerge the north east arbitrarily but can only facilitate the process by not issuing a further gazette postponing the referendum in the east. And having threatened to demerge the north and east, Kumaratunga will now have to decide by November 16 whether or not she wants the merger to continue.

Courting political disaster

In that context, having upped the stakes on this issue, with the threat of a demerger and bringing it as a major factor in the overall political equation the President will be courting political disaster both with the Sinhala constituency as well as the Muslims if she now has to by her own action postpone the referendum with the issuance of another gazette notification. And the Tamil community she has already lost for the PA given her stance on the peace process. Hence the lose-lose scenario.

On the other hand, if she does allow the referendum to proceed by not issuing a fresh gazette providing for a further postponement by a year, then both Hakeem and the government will be forced to take a stand on the issue and face the referendum. The PA would obviously campaign for the demerger in that eventuality.

In such a situation, the government will be compelled to oppose the demerger and explain to the south as well as the Muslim community that tampering with the present status quo would permanently seal the fate of the peace process and plunge the country back into war and also lose international support at a time a consensus had been reached for a federal solution in terms of the Oslo Declaration.

And if the government thus decides to call Kumaratunga's bluff, it is the PA that will face the political fallout of the President's actions for narrow political gain at the cost of the country's stability.

Furthermore, such a move at this juncture will also strengthen considerably LTTE's position with the international community which at the moment is dismally low given the developments in the east as well as other political killings and abductions. For, in such a scenario, the LTTE will be in a position to tell the international community quite convincingly, the divisive politics of the south will never allow a negotiated settlement to the ethnic crisis.

There is no gainsaying of course the LTTE itself has precipitated this crisis and given the President a handle to, under the guise of national security, sabotage the process through its conduct in the north east.

But the President's bona fides in making this move will also be in the public domain given her own approach in the past having offered LTTE Leader Pirapaharan free rein of the north east for 10 years without elections using the Tiger police force to boot as revealed in an interview with Time magazine in 1998 and subsequent discussions with the TULF leadership.

New front

In the overall context therefore, the President through her threat may have well opened a new front which could seal the fate of her presidency unless steps are taken pronto to resile from the stated position which in any event would then leave her bruised with the hardline Sinhala and Muslim constituencies, thereby taking the bottom off her provincial council election platform.

At the same time, pushing the government towards a confrontation with the LTTE, the President also detonated another landmine by requesting the government to exercise its authority and have the LTTE camp at Manirasakulam withdrawn immediately.

Act of war

The LTTE had earlier informed the government it was disputing the SLMM finding and any effort to remove it forcibly until such time the issue is resolved would be considered an act of war.

It thus appeared while the government was striving to maintain the peace, both the LTTE and the President were spoiling for a fight. (See box for full text of President's letter which speaks for itself)

It is also pertinent to note that the President, though Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces, has chosen not to issue a directive to the Army Commander for the withdrawal of the camp but opted to cast the burden on the government.

Through this strategy the President is also building up a file on the Prime Minister to make a case out to justify any decision to remove him and appoint a puppet premier.

And while the President thus made her latest manoeuvre, Prime Minister Wickremesinghe in contrast was preparing to provide a package of relief for the people as a dividend for grinning and bearing during a 18 month period of fiscal discipline following the negative growth he inherited from the PA administration.

Speaking to his cabinet of ministers on Wednesday, August 20, Wickremesinghe said the government has now obtained monies from several lines of credit to provide not only employment but infrastructure projects at electoral level commencing September.

The Premier said 1,300 electrification projects will commence in September for which Rs. 10 billion was available and that it would increase the percentage of electricity from 63% to 72% in the country.

This money, he said is for all districts other than Colombo and Gampaha which districts he said will be compensated through the Chinese line of credit.

He went on to say the government would also be launching a roadweek in September with Rs. 2 million allocated to each electorate in addition to another Rs. 15 million allocated for each electorate to carry out development activity.

"In addition 1000 families from each electorate will be given roofing sheets and provided self employment facilities with agricultural implements, tractors and other equipment on offer," he added.

Continuing, Wickremesinghe said Labour Minister Mahinda Samarasinghe will on September 4 announce 5000 jobs for graduates in the private sector in addition to another 1500-2000 jobs in the public sector.

"We have already spoken with the Treasury on this matter and the allocations arranged. Then Minister Ravi Karunanayake has suggested the creation of another 3000 jobs in weights and measures which he will be discussing with the Labour Minister," the Premier said.

Added he, "Further, another 15,000 will be enlisted to the youth corps and salary hikes and brighter prospects will also be announced in the budget."

Interjecting at this point, Lands Minister Rajitha Senaratne said he too has provision to recruit graduates under the new land policy thus adding to the number of jobs proposed.

Benefits to the people

Having held out the economic benefits and employment opportunities to be made available from September, the Premier asked his ministers to take that message to the electorate, a message he gave the UNP MPs as well the following day at the parliamentary group.

Wickremesinghe said it was important the UNP wins all seven provincial councils to push forward with the government's economic and political agenda and urged the members to work unitedly to achieve that objective.

Given the tensions in cabinet the previous week, the Prime Minister said UNP governments have always lost elections not due to failure of its policies but infighting.

Citing examples from the 1950s to date with references to Sir John Kotelawela, Dudley Senanayake, J.R. Jayewardene and senior ministers of the Jayewardene and Ranasinghe Premadasa eras, the Premier said it was those factors that impacted on the government.

"Now, people are asking me if the UNP is coming apart at the seams. That is not a good perception. At one point, when Dudley Senanayake spoke in cabinet, J.R. Jayewardene used to read the Readers Digest. The party eventually paid for those divisions. So let us move forward as one team," the Premier said.

Interestingly, before the Premier spoke, Ministers Rajitha Senaratne and Tilak Marapone bandied words over the MoU with Emirates and the Bushmaster deal with Israel, both of which issues the Prime Minister said can be discussed at length since the ministers had every right to know what they approve.

Thus, the stage seems to be set for a heated provincial councils election campaign with the President bracing for a showdown on the provisional administration and the north east merger, while the government plans to project the benefits of the peace process and the economic revival with the bottom line being winner takes all.

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