POLITICS

Playing the international field

By Suranimala While the opposition was thrown into disarray following the collapse of the SLFP-JVP talks, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe busied himself in New York widening the international safety net and support for the peace process and economic revival of the country. Prior to arriving in New York, the Prime Minister had taken a policy decision that Sri Lanka should be a player in the international scene rather than blindly follow a pack if she is to benefit from globalisation

Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe being accompanied to the podium by UN General Secretary Kofi Annan Photo by Sudath Silva

and set about the task meticulously, promoting the concept of a Like Minded Group (LMG) across the north south divide.

The strategy of the Prime Minister was to form a like minded group to deal with common concerns particularly in three areas, namely, the World Trade Organisation (WTO), UN reforms, and weapons of mass destruction and this he set about doing in New York, meeting heads of state and foreign ministers of over 20 countries.

Towards this end, Wickremesinghe sounded out amongst others countries including New Zealand, Chile, Portugal, Ghana, Bahrain, Qatar, Cape Verde, Norway and Singapore for starters and received positive signals.

Effectively, what the Prime Minister intended doing was steer Sri Lanka away from a dead end nonaligned policy and towards a more pro active role where the country could benefit from playing the international field, in the process ensuring a support base to address its security concerns.

Of course, in doing so, the Prime Minister is all too aware of India's strategic importance to Sri Lanka and has not only kept the giant neighbour across the Palk Straits informed but also taken the position, when it comes to UN reforms that Asia too should have a slot in the UN Security Council.

Economic future

The Prime Minister has also taken the view that Sri Lanka's economic future lay in sealing Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with the international community and has effectively used this strategy to forge ahead in that direction as well.

Thus, with a FTA with India already under the belt and negotiations with several other countries underway, he considered a deal with the United States of paramount importance especially with the garment quotas also coming to an end in 2005 and during the recent World Trade Organisation negotiations in Cancun, Mexico, directed Commerce Minister Ravi Karunanayake to carve out a role for Sri Lanka rather than blindly following a pack and Karunanayake rose to the occasion, drawing plaudits from the United States.

In fact appreciation of the role played by Karunanayake and his delegation was communicated in a personal letter addressed to Prime Minister Wickremesinghe by US Trade Representative Robert Zoellick, who headed the powerful US delegation at the WTO sessions in Cancun.

Written on an official letterhead of the "Executive Office of the President," Zoellick had in his own handwriting penned "Thank you for the cooperation and advice we received from your ministers."

Following is the full text of the letter:
The Honorable Ranil Wickremesinghe
Prime Minister,
Government of the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka,
Colombo, Sri Lanka.

Dear Prime Minister Wickremesinghe,

I just wanted you to know that I appreciated the efforts made by the Sri Lankan delegation at the World Trade Organisation ministerial meeting in Cancun to promote a successful result. Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Karunanayake, Ambassador Subasinghe and Ambassador Weerasinghe worked closely with the United States delegation in Cancun, for which I express my thanks. Your team was energetic and conveyed a positive "can do" spirit.

I hope that the rancour expressed by some delegations will abate and be replaced by a more constructive attitude. Only then will the Doha negotiations be able to progress and WTO members, developed and developing alike, achieve significant economic gains.

I am pleased that Deputy United States Trade Representative (USTR) Josette Shiner and Ambassador E. Ashley Wills, USTR's First Assistant USTR for South Asia, are planning to travel to Sri Lanka in mid October for a TIFA meeting.

I hope that you will convey to your delegation to Cancun my personal appreciation and that of the United States for its hard work and cooperation.

Sincerely,

Robert. B. Zoellick

The October visit of Deputy USTR Josette Shiner and Ambassador Ashley Wills, First Assistant USTR for South Asia for a TIFA meeting is a clear indicator of the positive results through the new approach.

It is in this same spirit Wickremesinghe to keep the interest in Sri Lanka alive,moved to promote the like minded group and during his New York visit laid the ground work for his plan of action using Economic Reforms Minister Milinda Moragoda and Ambassador Devinda Subasinghe to do the groundwork. Likewise Foreign Minister Tyronne Fernando had his own series of meetings with several foreign ministers promoting the same concept.

At the same time, the Premier also moved to up the tempo with another key player in the international scene, the European Union (EU) by setting up a Sri Lanka-European Union Troitka meeting using Minister Milinda Moragoda as the point man together with EU Ambassador Romesh Jayasinghe.

Top level meeting

This top level meeting which was held on Thursday, September 25, at the European Council Secretariat at 345, East 4 Street, New York was attended by the current EU President, Italian Foreign Minister Franco Fratini, the next President, Foreign Minister of Ireland, Brian Cowen, EU High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy, Javier Solana and External Relations Commissioner, Chris Patten. The Sri Lankan team headed by the Prime Minister included Foreign Minister Tyronne Fernando, Minister Milinda Moragoda and Ambassadors Subasinghe and Jayasinghe.

The significance of the meeting, apart from the joint statement that followed was the upgrading of Sri Lanka's dealings with the EU from an official level to that of political.

In fact, in doing the ground work for the meeting, Moragoda met with both Patten and Solana and requested they appoint a senior member to "keep an eye on Sri Lanka," which was agreed to in principle with Patten indicating he will personally handle Sri Lanka. He is now expected to visit Colombo in November.

This international focus on Sri Lanka was also evident when Prime Minister Wickremesinghe met with his Indian counterpart, Atal Behari Vajpayee on Tuesday, September 22, at the Winslow Room of the New York Palace Hotel where agreement was reached to hold the joint commission meeting in Colombo on October 15, with Indian External Affairs Minister, Yaswant Sinha due to attend.

Vajpayee used the opportunity to reiterate India's support for the on going peace process and the setting up of an interim administration for the north east. And just three days after the joint commission meeting in Colombo Prime Minister Wickremesinghe will visit New Delhi where a more detailed discussion will follow with Vajpayee on issues relating to security and economic cooperation between the two countries. That will be on October 20.

Problems over Annan's visit

Prior to all these mid October developments of course is the visit of UN Secretary General Kofi Annan and his wife to Colombo on October 9 but by Thursday, September 25, there cropped up some logistical problems with the visit.

It was an Advisor to the Secretary General who indicated the difficulties at a meeting with Foreign Secretary Designate Bernard Goonetilleke citing the current crisis over Iraq necessitating his presence in New York. It was told that while the Secretary General would visit India and Malaysia on schedule, he wished to postpone the visit to Sri Lanka for a more opportune time.

In a build-up to the earlier scheduledvisit however, Prime Minister Wickremesinghe met with the Secretary General at the UN Head Quarters on Friday, September 26, where details of the visit were discussed.

In dealing with this visit, the government was called upon tohandle a sensitive issue to avoid unnecessary controversy following a request made by the LTTE the previous week through Norway's Ambassador in Colombo, Hans Brattskar.

Given the involvement of UN agencies such as UNICEF and UNDP in humanitarian and rehabilitation work in the north east, it was considered appropriate for Secretary General Annan to also meet with the LTTE and this was communicated through Brattskar to LTTE's Political Wing Leader, Tamilselvan.

The message given to the LTTE was that the organisation can nominate a representative to meet with Annan in Colombo to discuss the work of the UN agencies but that it was not possible for the Secretary General to visit the Wanni.

But Tamilselvan had other ideas and informed Brattskar the "LTTE leader and the Tamil people" would like to welcome and meet the Secretary General in the Wanni.

This no doubt would have led to howls of protest in the south and accorded the LTTE status of a separate state and the government indicated, it would not be appropriate for Annan to visit the Wanni but that any representative of the LTTE leadership or the leadership itself could meet the Secretary General in Colombo.

Under heavy pressure

The Secretary General himself was under heavy pressure from a powerful LTTE lobby in the UN system to visit the Wanni with even the Norwegians in a moment of indiscretion promoting the idea in the belief they were being even handed. But the government stood firm on the issue.

For Annan too it was going to be an embarrassing exercise considering the fact, the United States in its updated list of terrorist organisations due to be released in the first week of Octoberhad decided to keep the Tigers on their list and for Annan to call on the LTTE a week later at a time there is concerted international action against terrorism was undoubtedly going to be frowned upon. It would have also called into serious question the UN's commitment to the battle against terrorism at a time the LTTE was still out of the democratic mainstream.

Furthermore, if the Secretary General was to postpone his visit because he wanted to be even handed with the LTTE and not prepared to visit Sri Lanka unless he was in a position to call on the LTTE Leader in the Wanni, it would no doubt also call into serious question the role of the UN in Sri Lanka. These ramifications could not have been lost on the Secretary General notwithstanding the pressure mounted on him by the Norwegians and the LTTE lobby.

It was finally decided, the LTTE will be extended an invitation to meet the Secretary General in Colombo. Annan is also scheduled to have separate meetings with President Chandrika Kumaratunga and the Prime Minister during his visit if it does go ahead as scheduled.

Request to reconsider

And on Friday, September 26, the Prime Minister at his meeting with the Secretary General requested him to reconsider his position and help move the peace process forward. With the Prime Minister at the meeting were Ministers Tyronne Fernando, Milinda Moragoda, Secretary to the PM, Bradman Weerakoon, Foreign Secretary Designate Bernard Goonetilleke and Ambassador Subasinghe.

The Prime Minister told the Secretary General he could meet the LTTE inColombo, at the airport or even Omanthai for that matter which is in government controlled territory. Following suit, Minister Moragoda said it was important for the Secretary General to keep to the agreed schedule and not send out wrong signals.

The Premierhelpfully suggested the Secretary General could even make it in November if the October schedule was too tight rather than keep Sri Lanka waiting for another 30 years for a visit by an UN Secretary General. The last visit by a UN General Secretary was during the tenure of U. Thant, 30 years back.

And withMoragoda holding forth and reiterating the position that it was the government of Prime Minister Wickremesinghe that gave the UN its due place in Sri Lanka, the Secretary General agreed to reconsider his position. His decision will now no doubt determine how the people of Sri lanka will look at the UN and its role in Sri Lanka.

It is this international offensive Prime Minister Wickremesinghe launched gradually and escalating it over a period of time since assuming office that has paid rich dividends and helped bring the full focus of the international community on Sri Lankaand even held back President Kumaratunga from acting irrationally with regard to the peace process.

In the final analysis, it is the international pressure on the President which prevented her from signing a deal with the JVP as well with itbeing made clear to her, any such alliance would make her a basket case with the international community and Kumaratunga knew only too well even if she were to capture power with the JVP, her government would be a non starter without the support of the international community.

It is for these reasons the President sought to bring the JVP round to her way of thinking on the issue of power sharing and Norwegian facilitation, but with the JVP too standing firm, the alliance had to give.

True, the portfolios demanded by the JVP, including that of deputy minister, defence brought home to Kumaratunga the reality she was playing with fire but it was the signal sent from the big players in the international community both from the East and West which eventually led to the President crying halt.

To Wickremesinghe's credit, backed by Ministers Moragoda and Tyronne Fernando, by his subtle approach, not only has the Premier built an international safety net which will hold good in the event of the peace process breaking down but also led to the opposition being checkmated on the issue.

Thus, while regularly crying foul and threatening all manner of action against the government with regard to the peace process, the President has had to at the last moment pull back under the full realisation, any attempt by her to undermine the process will earn her a pariah status with the global community.

And tactically, this is where the Prime Minister succeeded in contrast to Kumaratunga and Kadirgamar's failure in balancing foreign policy with domestic compulsions.

The approach of the Kumaratunga administration was to send Kadirgamar to   the world capitals and push for the banning of the LTTE without leaving a window open for the Tigers to return to the negotiating table.

Contrasting strategy

Kadirgamar acted under the belief the LTTE will be forced to come to the table from a position of weakness if there was international strangulation but in doing so, no viable package was offered that the Tamils found acceptable and the whole strategy came unstuck.

In contrast, Wickremesinghe was seen to be sincere and consistent in his position by the international community for not rocking the boat on the peace process even while in opposition and it is on this goodwill generated the Prime Minister has been able to cash in his chips - a lesson Kumaratunga has failed to learn.

Wickremesinghe's approach was to show the international community, he was sincere and prepared to go the extra mile despite opposition in the south and the attendant political risks to accommodate the LTTE, which not only helped build up the international safety net but also put pressure on the LTTE.

And the resultant ceasefire, despite the warts, has helped the Prime Minister not only inch the peace process forward in the full glare of international opinion but also stabilise the economy for long-term sustainability.

Thus, on the one hand while none of the countries which had earlier banned the LTTE took the organisation off the terrorist list, others such as Canada and the EU have kept the option open as a reward for sticking with the process.

Therefore, the LTTE on the one hand has been given the opportunity to participate in the peace process with dignity but with the full realisation that moving out of it without just cause would lead to serious repercussions from the international community.

In that context, the failure of the SLFP-JVP talks is another blow to the LTTE since it would otherwise have had a powerful weapon with which to go before the international community and make a case.

In such a scenario, given some of Kumaratunga's utterances such as demerging the north east and thewar like posture of the JVP and a SLFP-JVP alliance being the only alternative to the UNP, the Tigers could have gained much mileage for its case internationally and even justified preparing for war citing the possibility of a SLFP-JVP government opting for a military solution.

But that again was not to be, only because the international community no less impressed upon Kumaratunga the dangers of such an alliance for Sri Lanka's future stability, once again bringing in dividends for Prime Minister Wickremesinghe's overall strategy.

Wickremesinghe thus appears to have all the pieces on the chess board in place to secure the country's future and deliver prosperity to the people but the question that remains, however, is will he act soon enough and not be derailed due to corruption and abuse of power by some ofhis own members.

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