Heading towards an election year

By Suranimala  With just 72 hours to go for the dawn of a new year, the country was once again facing the prospect of political instability and economic retardation as both the President and Prime Minister readied for battle.

Except for the occasional hiccup in the peace process, the country was progressing smoothly after 20 years of bloody war with an economy showing strong signs of recovery, when the President decided to strike on November 4 by taking over three crucial portfolios, sending in the process the government into a tailspin.

And with it came political instability, prompting the IMF to hold back its much awaited tranche under the poverty reduction and growth facility, leading investors too to take a step back until such time a clearer picture emerged on the direction the country would be heading.

To make matters worse, the peace process, which was on the verge of being revived following the LTTE's response to the interim administration proposals of the government, also took a severe hit after the Norwegian facilitators pulled out until such time the south resolved its power struggle.

Economic Reforms Minister Milinda Moragoda in fact will be winging his way to Washington for a meeting with Acting Secretary of State, Richard Armitage this week to explore avenues on how aid pledges can flow in despite the peace process being suspended.

General election

And adding to the doomsday scenario was the possibility of a SLFP-JVP pact followed by a snap general election, which in the event of victory for the new coalition would have not only sealed the fate of the peace process but also donor assistance for economic revival giving the fact that the JVP would be calling the shots in such a government.

Thus with a stroke of her pen, the President had changed the destiny of a nation, making Sri Lanka once again a basket case in the eyes of the international community and Sri Lanka a lost cause among the local populace with only the prospect of more hardships and war to look forward to in the coming year.

It did not take President Chandrika Kumaratunga long to realise the fatal political miscalculation she made with the takeover of the three ministries given the full implications of her actions being brought to bear on her by the international community and soon a face-saving compromise was sought with Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe.

And so came to be a four member officials committee, which from the very inception was doomed to failure, given the very composition of it from Kumaratunga's side.

Whilst Prime Minister Wickremesinghe nominated his Secretary Bradman Weerakoon and UNP Chairman Malik Samarawickrema to the committee, the President went with two officials, Secretary W.J.S. Karunaratne and Advisor Mano Tittawella, drawing sharp criticism from Kumaratunga's own ranks for failure to introduce a politician into the committee.

Severe moral blow

This in turn led to a hardline group within her party led by the likes of Mangala Samaraweera, and Anura Bandaranaike objecting to any compromise with the government, pointing out that the return of any of the portfolios would be a severe moral blow for the party in addition to any agreement with the JVP.

On the other hand, a moderate group within the party which included the likes of PA General Secretary D.M. Jayaratne and Nimal Siripala de Silva pushed for a compromise formula with the government and cautioned the President against any deal with the JVP, which sentiments were similar to those conveyed by the international community as well.

Thus effectively the President was in a catch 22 situation, sending confused signals on her proposed cause of action to put the country back on track.

This confusion was best underscored by inordinately delaying the signing of an agreement with the JVP, offering to return the portfolios of Mass Communications and Interior to the government in addition to sharing the defence portfolio with the Prime Minister whilst gazetting some subjects under the Interior Ministry under Defence as well as appointing a Presidential task force on the media.

The Prime Minister for his part has consistently rejected a compromise on the portfolios stating he cannot take responsibility for the peace process unless he was in charge of the crucial levers but invited the President with his full support to takeover the process if she intended keeping the portfolios. He had also offered to arrive at a working arrangement with the President if the November 5 status quo was restored.

Lack of progress

Whilst Wickremesinghe took this high moral ground, all was not honky dory in his camp either, with members becoming impatient at the lack of progress in government due to the political uncertainty and being in the dark over developments with regard to the compromise talks.

In fact, just the previous week in parliament, Ministers S.B. Dissanayake and Rajitha Senaratne impressed upon the Prime Minister the need for action against the President or at least an acceptance of the portfolios of Interior and Mass Communications as a first step in an overall strategy but the Prime Minister was not interested.

Wickremesinghe said he was standing on a principle to get the peace process back on track without which he said there was no hope for economic stability in the country either and it was important not to compromise on principles. "Please let me handle this issue. I will ensure the legislature succeeds over the executive," the Premier said.

But a factor concerning the members is their inability to provide answers to the electorate and keep the party morale up given the current political uncertainty. These members are particularly concerned that if the situation is allowed to deteriorated by the President without conceding the three ministries, it would make the government look impotent and in the long run the UNF would be blamed for the economic collapse which would eventually follow.

They believe that the government, by meekly submitting to the President's takeover and hoping for success through a dialouge with Kumaratunga, looks weak and impotent in the eyes of the people, considering the mandate the party received in 2001.

A different mindset

The Prime Minister of course is of a different mindset, pointing out it is the President's actions which have set the country back and that the people are intelligent enough to determine it. He has said it is for the government to effectively take that message to the people.

For the members however, the question still arises as to what answers they can provide the electorate to address the people's day to day concerns without just confining themselves only to a blame game and this factor several ministers discussed among themselves.

On the day before cabinet, Tuesday, December 23, Samurdhi Minister S.B. Dissanayake in fact spoke with UNP Chairman Malik Samarawickrema and once again stressed the importance of impressing upon the Prime Minister the need for decisive action and requested for a meeting to be arranged for a group of ministers to meet with the Prime Minister and express their concerns.

What had particularly irked the Minister was a report that the President had secretly taken oaths for a second time in November 2000 with a view to extending her term of office by a further year to 2006 having earlier taken oaths in December 1999.

It was a journalist identified in media circles as being "very close" to the Chief Justice who first broke the story in a Sinhala daily several weeks back but it did not receive due attention given the innocuous manner in which the story was presented. Subsequently it was reported again with a little more prominence and it caught the hawk eye of Consumer Affairs Minister Ravi Karunanayake.

Lacking credibility

And three weeks back the Minister raised the issue at the cabinet of ministers only to be dismissed by the Prime Minister as a story lacking in credibility. The Prime Minister took the view that there is no legal basis whatsoever for the President to take oaths for a second time and extend her term by another year and as such the story cannot be true.

Then came the banner headline story in an English weekly last week with no denial from either the Chief Justice or the President's office and the government woke up and took notice.

Thus on Wednesday, December 24, when the cabinet of ministers met, Minister Karunanayake once again drew the attention of the Prime Minister and his colleagues to the report, adverting also to the earlier publication in the Sinhala media.

The Minister said if the story is correct, the President has violated the constitution by taking oaths for a third time, effectively serving three terms when she is constitutionally empowered only two.

Replied the Premier - "The government stand is very clear. Let's see whether the President's office denies the story first. Our position is that the Presidential election must be held by November 2004."

No legal validity

Chipping in at this point was Education Minister Karunasena Kodituwakku who pointed out several legal experts including former Additional Solicitor General, President's Counsel, Srinath Perera and Rohan Edirisinha have already gone on record stating such a swearing in ceremony has no legal validity.

Added Minister Peiris - "H.L. de Silva is also very clear on the matter. The President's term ends in November 2004."

Finally, the Prime Minister said the media has also shown the President's oath taking ceremony of December 22, 1999, and no purported secret swearing in ceremony will have the force of law.

These developments are what has irked the ministers who though amenable to a compromise earlier were now taking a hardline and the decision of the President to gazette some of the Interior Ministry functions under Defence were viewed by them as a signal from the President she was not about to concede on the portfolios.

Invitation for kiributh

Thus, when the Prime Minister announced at the cabinet the President had called for the next cabinet meeting scheduled for January 8 to be held at President's House with the partaking of kiributh, there was an emphatic "no" from the ministers.

Rejecting the President's invitation outright were Ministers W.J.M. Lokubandara, Rajitha Senaratne, Karunasena Kodituwakku, John Amaratunga, Ravi Karunanayake and Mahinda Wijesekera who said it was "sheer nonsense" on the part of the President to invite them for kiributh having plunged the country into crisis.

Added Kodituwakku - "If she wants, we can go for kiributh to President's House but the cabinet meeting must be held at the cabinet office and not President's House."

It was Minister Jayewickrema Perera who saw an astute political move on the part of the President in extending the invitation for kiributh and a cabinet meeting at President's House, having boycotted cabinet since the takeover of the three ministers on November 4. Said he - "She must be looking for a way to once again attend cabinet meetings and the invitation may be for that purpose."

But the ministers were not inclined to make life any easier for Kumaratunga and Minister Rajitha Senaratne said cabinet was functioning smoothly without the President and the government should not make matters any easier for her to disrupt government activity by shifting cabinet meetings back to President's House. Thus, it was decided by the Ministers not to agree for the shift in venue whilst also rejecting the kiributh invitation.

But what really held the Prime Minister's attention last week was the attempt to cause religious disturbances over Soma Thero's death, which he believed was fomented by the JVP.

Speaking at length on the issue at Cabinet, the Prime Minister said he decided advisedly to remain silent until the funeral ceremonies were over to deal with the issue of incitement.

Sowing seeds of hatred

"It is the JVP that is behind the incitement under different names. It is unbecoming of a Buddhist country. Buddhism advocates tolerance and equality, not sowing the seeds of hatred. First they tried to show the government was responsible for the death of Soma Thero. Then they tried to blame other religious groups," he said.

Continuing, the Prime Minister said he will not tolerate such actions to destroy Sri Lanka's image of a multi cultural, multi religious society.

"We are the first country to have Muslim affairs, Hindu affairs and Christian affairs ministries in addition to a Buddha Sasana Ministry. Some shops were forced to close by the distribution of chits in an attempt to reintroduce a fear psychosis in the country. We all know who adopted the practise of chits to instil fear," the Prime Minister added.

The Prime Minister went on to tell his ministers he would be dealing with this issue and the JVP's plans to sow the seeds of religious disharmony no sooner the festive season is over.

But the major problem for the Premier remains the uncertainty over the political deadlock with the country drifting aimlessly and this factor the Prime Minister last week finally decided to hammer out on December 31 with his ministers.

In fact, just last week, President Kumaratunga too met several business leaders from the Joint Business Forum where it was brought to her notice, she must return to the November 3 status quo for the restoration of stability which on that occasion Kumaratunga appeared amiable to.

However, the business leaders came out of the meeting with the impression the President was totally confused where she was heading with no clear plan evident. This impression several business leaders communicated to Prime Minister Wickremesinghe after the meeting and insisted he takes some decisive action.

The point made by the business leaders to the Prime Minister was that he had been given a mandate by the people to deliver on pledges made, a responsibility he cannot now abdicate by placing the blame on Kumaratunga's action.

Implement mandate

The business leaders told the Prime Minister if the President was intransigent, he should then implement his mandate and they would stand by the government.

It is on this premise that the Prime Minister has now decided to discuss the issue with his ministers on December 31 and chart a course of action.

Wickremesinghe has in the meantime already got the party machinery geared for elections and a series of meetings were conducted with organisers throughout the country.

Interestingly, with speculation rife that the President may first go for provincial polls, targeting the south in alliance with the JVP, Wickrem- esinghe also met with UNP's southern leadership and Fisheries Minister Milinda Wijesekera assured the Premier he would guarantee victory in the Matara District with Sajith Premadasa who was given the Tissamaharama organisership also pledging likewise in his district.

Thus, with no compromise likely from either side, 2004 is going to be an election year and the sooner that reality sinks in to all concerned, the healthier it is going to be for all concerned.