POLITICS

CBK, Ranil ready for battle

Chandrika Kumaratunga, Ranil Wickremesinghe, Ravi Karunanayake, Chandana Kathriarachchi and Milinda Moragoda

By Suranimala  With the Christmas and new year festivities over, both President Chandrika Kumaratunga and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe were setting the stage for a make or break political confrontation that would in all probability climax in a general election. Having bided his time, waiting for the President to agree to a compromise formula which would break the political deadlock, Wickremesinghe's patience finally ran out last week with orders going for an all out offensive, keeping in mind a general election will be the ultimate outcome. The only possibility now of averting a general election four years before schedule is if the President reverts to the November 3 status quo, which is of course very unlikely, and that is what has now prompted the government to launch a people's movement to force her hand. An election, the Prime Minister had earlier said he would try to avert, given the fact a six year mandate was received from  the electorate for peace and economic revival but last week,

Wickremesinghe under pressure from his own party for decisive action was breathing fire after Kumaratunga went on record stating the Premier had created an imaginary constitutional crisis.

The Prime Minister had consistently taken the position he will not be in a position to take responsibility for the peace process unless he is in charge of the essential levers to do so and having the crucial defence, interior and media portfolios were essential in the overall scheme of things.

International displeasure

The President had other ideas and having precipitated the crisis on November 4, insisted on retaining the defence portfolio as well as selected subjects under the Interior Ministry.

In sticking to her guns, however, the President has earned the displeasure of the international community which wanted the peace process revived at the earliest and a strong message was received at President's House that intransigence on her part will draw a negative reaction with serious repercussions for a possible PA government under her in the future.

In fact, the strategy employed by the Prime Minister was to bring sufficient international pressure on Kumaratunga to show the country a government under her would leave Sri Lanka isolated and without funds whilst compelling her domestically to compromise or go for an election, where the country would be given the choice of deciding between economic chaos and war or economic prosperity and peace given this international dimension.

It is towards this end, Wickremesinghe despatched Economic Reforms Minister Milinda Moragoda to Washington, Oslo and Brussels last week with a message from Wickremesinghe calling for a clear signal both to the President as well as the country on the options available.

Swift US reaction

And the US reaction was swift with US Deputy Secretary of State, Richard Armitage informing Moragoda that the current political crisis was precipitated in Colombo while the Prime Minister was in Washington and it would have a negative impact on the peace process until a clarification of responsibilities can be found, which would allow the Prime Minister to resume peace negotiations.

Thus, by stating the political crisis was precipitated in Colombo while Wickremesinghe was in Washington, the US had implied very strongly, it is Kumaratunga who is responsible for the crisis.

At the same time, by Armitage stating there should be clarification of responsibilities that would enable the Prime Minister to resume the peace process, a clear message was sent for a return to the November 3 status quo.

The significance of Armitage's statement had to be viewed from the Prime Minister's own publicly stated position both locally and internationally that he would need the return of all three portfolios to take responsibility for and resume the peace process and in that context the statement of Armitage was a clear signal to Kumaratunga not to play spoil sport.

Armitage went further and told Moragoda, "The current political impasse in Sri Lanka cannot be allowed to continue," and went on to add he will consult the other donor co-chairs, Norway, Japan and the European Union to "define" a way forward after taking stock of the situation.

The Deputy Secretary of State also told Moragoda the US stands behind Sri Lanka in its search for peace and looked forward to an early resumption of negotiations between the government and the LTTE.

These sentiments and words of solidarity expressed by Armitage to Moragoda were later articulated in a statement by Deputy Spokesman, Adam Ereli and on receipt of this information, Kumaratunga blew a fuse and directed her Media Spokesman Janadasa Pieris to pooh pooh it.

The reference to the consultations to be had with the co-chairs, Japan, Norway and the European Union by Armitage was particularly biting because it meant the international community as a whole will be spoken to by the US with a view to help revive the peace process and that meant ensuring the Premier gets back the three portfolios.

Total isolation

And to underline the fact the US means business, Secretary of State Collin Powell was to personally write on Friday, January 2, to both President Kumaratunga and Prime Minister Wickremesinghe calling for an early resolution to the political deadlock.

It is these factors which will signal to Kumaratunga she is facing total isolation from the international community if the present status quo is allowed to continue and this position will be reinforced following anticipated statements after Moragoda's meetings with Helgessen and Solheim in Oslo and Chris Patten in Brussels.

While this pressure was mounted internationally on the President, domestically too the business leaders came out with a strong message calling for a consensus, once again implicitly blaming Kumaratunga for the political crisis and the prospective economic downturn.

Joint Business Forum statement

The Joint Business Forum comprising the Federation of Chamber of Commerce and Industry Sri Lanka, the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce, National Chamber of Commerce Sri Lanka, Ceylon National Chamber of Industries, International Chamber of Commerce Sri Lanka, National Chamber of Exporters of Sri Lanka, Employers Federation of Ceylon, Exporters Association of Sri Lanka and the Sri Lanka Banks Association in a joint statement issued Wednesday said, "Due to the political crisis, the negotiations with the LTTE have been suspended with no indication of when they would be resumed and who will be responsible for driving them forward. Consequently, all rehabilitation and reconstruction projects in the north and east and other parts of the country have been suspended."

JBF debunks CBK's assertion

By that paragraph, the Joint Business Forum effectively debunked President Kumaratunga's assertion that the Prime Minister has created an "imaginary" constitutional crisis when the peace process had already collapsed by stating categorically, the peace process has been suspended due to the political crisis.

And since the political crisis was a result of Kumaratunga's November 4 takeover of three ministries, just three days after LTTE's counter proposals for an interim administration with a pledge to resume talks, the Joint Business Forum has effectively placed the blame for the crisis at Kumaratunga's door.

The statement goes onto add inter alia that the cessation of hostilities and the consequent improvement of the investment climate have driven Sri Lanka's economic recovery but many investors have now put their proposals on hold with the stock market capitalisation also declining by over Rs. 80 billion and that the employment generating small and medium scale industries will be adversely affected due to the anticipated economic downturn.

Thus, while calling for a consensus between the President and the Prime Minister, the Joint Business Forum has effectively put the President on notice that she will be responsible for generating unemployment and the economic downturn due to the political crisis created on November 4.

And with the possibility of President Kumaratunga signing an agreement with the JVP before an election, the twin messages from the international community as well as the business community are that she will be without any friends to steer the economy or the peace process in the event of victory, a prospect Kumaratunga will not relish.

Calling CBK's bluff

With the stage thus set, Prime Minister Wickremesinghe summoned his political affairs committee for a meeting on Friday, January 2, to work out a political campaign at grassroot level to add pressure on the President to compromise or go for elections.

In fact on Thursday, January 1, Wickremesinghe discussed this issue with both Ministers S.B. Dissanayake and Rajitha Senaratne and told them to take the lead in calling the President's election bluff.

That was after the President hinted on Wednesday, she would be compelled to go for a general election if the Prime Minister did not compromise on her terms.

It is this statement Minister Karunanayake and Dissanayake queried from the Premier and asked why the government does not call her bluff and Wickremesinghe gave the green light for the two Ministers to do so.

Minister Karunanayake told the Premier while the government had a mandate for six years to put the country back on track and after just two years an upward trend was already visible, the President was determined to pull everyone down to ensure she can make  a dramatic move before 2005 to secure her position in politics.

"She is not interested in the country but herself. If she is threatening an election, let us dare her and be done with it. We can return with a bigger majority and tie her down till 2005. No one wants an election but if that is what the President wants to secure her position, we will go for it and show her," Karunanayake said.

Chipping in at this stage, Minister Dissanayake told the Prime Minister he had molly coddled her far too long and it was time her bluff was called. "Let's mobilise the people," he said, with the Premier nodding his assent.

Action

Wickremesinghe told Dissana-yake and Karunanayake to take the lead in calling the President's bluff and the Ministerial duo immediately got into action.

"Though we have a mandate for six years, if the President wants to retard the progress of the country by being intransigent and threatening an election, let's go for it and start afresh. It is better than this festering wound," the Premier told the two ministers.

At the same time, Ministers G.L. Peiris and Rajitha Senaratne were requested to mobilise the Non Governmental Organisations (NGOs) for the launch of a people's agitational campaign and this meeting also got underway last week with over 20 NGOs attending a meeting with the Premier and the two Ministers.

It was decided for the group to meet again on January 14 with strategy to be launched on February 22, the date the MoU was signed between the Premier and  LTTE Leader V. Pirapaharan.

Potential conflict defused

By this time, the Prime Minister had also successfully defused a potential religious conflict by ensuring the fast unto death campaign of two Buddhist monks was called off after assurances of considering a solution to their concern.

This the Prime Minister did on Tuesday, December 30, at Temple Trees where he met with representatives of all the Nikayas and leading monks including the Maha Nayake of the Asgiriya Chapter, Ven. Udugama Sri Buddha Rakkita, Ven. Aluthgama Dhammananda of the Malwatte Chapter, Mahanayake of the Ramanya Nikaya, Ven. Wevaldeniya Medalankara, Mahanayake of the Amarapura Nikaya, Dalvuldena Gnanssara Thero, Ven. Dr. Bellanwila Wimalaratna, Ven. Weligama Gnanaratna Maha Nayake Thero, Ven. Bellana Pemananda Maha Nayake Thero, Ven. Iththapana Dhammalankara Thero, Ven. Welivitiyawe Kusaladharma Thero and Ven. Muruttetuwa Ananda Thero.

Assisting the Premier were Ministers Karu Jayasuriya, W.J.M. Lokubandara, Karunasena Kodituwakku, Tilak Marapone and UNP Chairman Malik Samarawickrema.

Having got that issue out of the way with assurances the two Buddhist monks would give up their fast unto death, the question of the political deadlock was raised by the clergy, insisting the President and Prime Minister arrive at a compromise for the stability of the nation.

At this point, Wickremesinghe explained his position vis a vis the peace process and requested UNP Chairman Malik Samarawickrema to brief the clergy on  the talks with the President's nominees.

This Samarawickrema proceeded to do and after the briefing the clergy said they were convinced with what the Prime Minister was saying and believed him but heard a different story from the President.

Interestingly, all the priests numbering almost 40 present on the occasion were supportive of the peace process and wanted talks with the LTTE commenced at the earliest and urged an early resolution to the southern political crisis.

Finally it was proposed by Ven. Dr. Bellanwila Wimalaratana that a joint meeting be held between the President and the Premier in the presence of the clergy to iron out the differences and get the peace process back on track.

Interestingly, while the pressure was mounted on the President from all fronts, local and international, there were added worries within the PA as well in view of the proposed pact with the JVP.

JVP strategy

A formidable group of PA MPs in fact have banded together and decided to oppose a deal with the JVP on the basis the Marxists' strategy was to hijack the SLFP under the guise of a pact.

To the SLFP in particular this strategy of the JVP became evident after the Marxists in their seminars started lobbying the 'blues' and pushing their agenda.

Thus the group of MPs, spearheaded by two Colombo District SLFP members, Bharatha Lakshman Premachandra and Chandana Kathriarachchi last week commenced collecting signatures to be forwarded to the President claiming a majority of the members were opposed to a deal with the reds.

The MPs are requesting the President to discuss the issue with them before entering into any agreement claiming the JVP demand for a snap general election as a pre-condition for signing the agreement was to also get a stranglehold of the SLFP.

They are arguing that any election at this point will only strengthen the LTTE and the JVP, thereby ensuring instability for years to come and therefore should not fall into the trap of the "northern and southern terrorists."

Given this situation, the President is caught in a catch 22 situation and may well be faced with Hobson's choice - returning to the November 3 status quo.

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