CBK's act of political suicide By Suranimala

Chandrika Kumaratunga and Ranil Wickremesinghe

The Bandaranaike siblings and the President's daughter Yashodara were having a cosy dinner and discussing men and matters at President's House on the night of Saturday, February 7, when elder sister Sunethra's cellular started buzzing.

The caller at the other end was confidant and Executive Director, Centre for Policy Alternatives, Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu who inquired from Sunethra whether parliament was dissolved.

Quite oblivious to the political events to unfold within a couple of hours, Sunethra, an ardent critic of the SLFP-JVP alliance for its perceived extremism on the ethnic issue, did not venture to answer the question but simply said, "I'll call you back."

Having said that Sunethra turned to President Chandrika Kumaratunga and said it was "Thambi calling to ask whether parliament has been dissolved." Without batting an eyelid, the President told her elder sister there was no such thing and returned to another topic of discussion, brother Anura.

Secretive

Not long after, Sunethra got up to leave and at that moment, President Kumaratunga very casually told her sister she had just sent the papers to the Government Printer dissolving parliament. Sunethra was nonplussed.

That is how close to the chest President Kumaratunga played her cards on the dissolution of parliament, taking into her confidence only Mangala Samaraweera, Wimal Weerawansa, Secretary W.J.S. Karunaratne and Advisers Lakshman Kadirgamar and Mano Tittawela.

This deception Kumaratunga practised on sister Sunethra was also evident in her dealings with the government through the four member officials committee, holding out the prospect of a compromise formula till the penultimate hour.

In fact, when the Mano-Malik committee met earlier that week, a draft for a compromise formula to share the defence portfolio was also prepared and the next date of talks fixed for Monday, February 9.

By that time, the President had already decided to dissolve parliament but went with the pretence no dissolution will take place in a bid to lull the UNF government into a false sense of complacency the provincial polls will be held first.

Not altogether convinced the President was playing a straight bat, when the next round of talks was fixed for Monday, February 9, UNP Chairman Malik Samarawickrema specifically asked whether any purpose would be served since speculation was that the President would dissolve parliament in view of the agreement with the JVP.

Speculation

He went so far as to joke that with Prime Minister Ranil Wickrem- esinghe scheduled to leave for Thailand on an official visit, the President could sack the whole government as opposed to taking over some ministries as she did during the Premier's official visit to the United States in November as exclusively reported in last weeks's column.

But the President's Senior Adviser Tittawela dismissed such speculation stating the President has no intention of dissolving parliament and the talks on Monday could go a long way in breaking the political deadlock.

Brought up in the tradition that a man's word is his bond, Malik - son of one of Sri Lanka's most respected public servants, Ivan Samar- awickrema - naively believed the assurances given and told the Prime Minister a compromise seems likely to break the political deadlock, and Wickremesinghe too in the same spirit accepted them at their word.

For him, when it came to overall national interest, it was unthinkable a head of state would play politics and had no reason therefore to disbelieve the assurances given.

Furthermore, the government was also alive to the fact, the international community as well as civic groups were bringing to bear on both the President and the Premier heavy pressure to reach a compromise to ensure stability in the country, in particular with regard to the peace process and the economy.

It is these factors which prompted the Prime Minister to resist pressure from his members to impeach the President as well as cut off funds for her office as well as the ministries taken over, believing they would ultimately have to work together in the overall national interest.

Unbelievable

At the same time, with Sri Lanka just about raising its head economically with a growth rate of over 6.5% projected by the Central Bank and the ceasefire with the LTTE still holding good, Wickremesinghe did not for a moment believe any right thinking politician, leave alone a head of state, would even contemplate dissolution at this point of time.

Moreso, in the backdrop of a written assurance given by the President to the Speaker of Parliament, Joseph Michael Perera that there will be no dissolution of parliament as long as the government enjoyed a clear majority in parliament.

In addition, an election at this time would cost the national coffers nearly a billion rupees, monies which the country could ill afford and which could well have been channelled towards subsidies for farmers, health, education or any other areas to provide relief to the masses if that was the consideration of the SLFP/JVP alliance in calling for an election.

Thus, when Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, who was in Bentota on Saturday evening discussing media strategy with a team of journalists received a call from his brother, TNL Chief, Shan Wickremesinghe that parliament was dissolved - despite the anticipation, he was taken aback.

"This lady must be crazy," was the only statement he ventured to make and minutes later Wickremesinghe was informed by an editor from Colombo, Kadirgamar had been sworn in as media minister and once again the Premier's reaction was one of shock.

Turning to the journalists present, Wickremesinghe had said the President is making blunder after blunder and treating the country as her private property and the government could now go in for the election holding the moral high ground.

The following day, Sunday, February 8, Wickremesinghe immediately got to work and spoke with CWC Leader, Minister Armugam Thondaman and SLMC Leader, Minister Rauf Hakeem to ensure his alliance was intact, fully realising clinching that agreement would seal the fate of the SLFP/JVP alliance forming a government.

Thondaman responding to the Premier's call agreed to meet him the very night in Colombo to discuss their strategy and at that meeting Thondaman indicated he would be contesting with the UNP, subject of course to agreement being reached on an electoral arrangement in respect of seat allocations.

And by Tuesday, that deal was clinched and an announcement by the CWC followed Wednesday and with it any chances of the SLFP/JVP forming a government.

Victory

For, with this pact, the UNP/CWC combine is assured of victory in the districts of Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Matale and Kandy, which makes it impossible for the SLFP/JVP combine to obtain 113 seats in parliament even if it wins every other district in the country outside the north east.

There is no gainsaying that even the districts of Colombo, Puttalam and Kurunegala are dicey for the SLFP/JVP combine, even assuring there is a huge swing in their favour, thus sealing the possibility of the new alliance forming a government without the support of a minority party.

In that context, the SLMC also becomes relevant and the Prime Minister discussed this very issue with Muslim Congress Leader Rauf Hakeem on the night of Wednesday, February 11, at Temple Trees and once again, all indications were that the Congress will run with the UNP in all districts outside the north east.

From the standpoint of the Muslim Congress as well as the UNP, it was of paramount importance, the SLMC goes solo in the north east possibly in alliance with other breakaway factions to neutralise Ferial Ashraff's NUA factor and that too came to be discussed.

This move was particularly significant since Ferial Ashraff has already joined the SLFP/JVP alliance and would now have to contest under the green betel leaf symbol, thus losing her Muslim party identity in the east.

This was going to particularly affect her political fortunes in the east given the JVP factor and the perception among the minorities of the reds being racists.

In such a situation, the SLMC running alone in the north east was bound to give it a distinct advantage, which would in turn accrue to the benefit of the UNP coalition was another issue discussed between the leaders.

However, Hakeem informed the Premier he would revert to him after the party's politburo meeting scheduled later that night.

Clear signal

And at the politburo meeting it was evident from statements made by the members, a pact with the SLFP/JVP combine was as plausible as the devil preaching the scriptures at a banquet in hell with the only options considered being to contest with the UNP or go it alone.

The consensus at the meeting was that the SLFP/JVP alliance was becoming increasingly chauvinistic and the Muslim Congress should not be seen as assisting such a combine to form a government in any form.

The politburo of course decided to put forward six demands as pre conditions to extend its support to any party, once again demands drafted in a manner to send a clear signal, a deal with the SLFP/JVP combine was out of the question.

For example, one condition was to allow the Muslim Congress to contest under the 'Tree' symbol in the Ampara District while another was to accept the Muslim Congress as sole representatives of the Muslims in negotiations with the LTTE and the government, in addition to being treated as a separate but equal partner in negotiations. These conditions are under which the UNP already operates with the SLMC but is anathema to Ferial Ashraff and the SLMC/JVP alliance.

The SLFP/JVP alliance and Ferial Ashraff have for example ruled out the possibility of contesting under any other symbol than their own and Ashraff in particular would never concede to the Muslim Congress being acknowledged as the sole representatives of the Muslims.

Furthermore, the SLMC has also demanded that all rehabilitating, resettlement and development work with regard to Muslims in the east be brought under the purview of the Muslim leadership, namely the Muslim Congress, once again a condition with which Ferial Ashraff is at odds.

Impossible

As of now, it is Hakeem who is the minister in charge of rehabilitation in the east, a portfolio earlier enjoyed by Ferial Ashraff, once again making it impossible for the parties to even consider combining forces.

Thus, with the SLMC all but certain to run with the UNP outside the north east and separately in the east, the chances of the SLFP/JVP combine reaching even 105 seats is very remote.

In fact the rationale behind the SLFP/JVP alliance was that by combining forces their collective vote would be in excess of that of the UNP, thus assuring the alliance of victory.

That again was a miscalculation because their very getting together would alienate a moderate group of voters from the alliance.

Even otherwise, at the 2001 December poll, the UNP-CWC-SLMC combine polled 4,191,372 votes as opposed to the 4,146,168 voted polled by the PA and JVP together.

The question then arises how it is going to reach the magical figure of 113 without the support of any minority party, with the TNA which is expected to notch up at least 23 seats the only other option available. But the TNA has already stated categorically it will have nothing to do with the SLFP/JVP alliance, going so far as to hint, the country would be facing the prospect of war in the "unlikely event" of the new alliance securing victory.

First line of attack

As such what the Premier did as his first line of attack by securing the minority support is exclude the possibility of the SLFP/JVP combine having any chance of forming a government. And with that in the bag, his next line of attack is to ask the people to give the only party capable of forming a stable government a clear mandate.

It will be recalled in 1994, President Kumaratunga at the height of her popularity had the support of both the ethnic as well as religious minorities and despite the UNP's popularity being at the lowest, still managed to secure only a single seat majority.

In today's context, the SLFP/JVP combine has not only alienated the ethnic minorities but also religious and the UNP is nowhere near unpopular as it was in 1994.

The fact is, the economy is performing much better today than it was under Kumaratunga and the ceasefire is also holding in addition to full international backing for Wickremesinghe, factors the SLFP/JVP alliance will have to contend with when the campaign picks up and justify committing the country to a costly and probably violent election.

Thus, after the initial euphoria following the dissolution of parliament, the reality is slowly but surely dawning on the SLFP members that they are not only looking at another stint in opposition but one where several of them might even have to concede their seats to the JVP with 42 slots already allocated for the reds and several more for the other partners such as the MEP, NUA and possibly the LSSP, CP, SLMP and the DVJP.

This situation has also led to a ripple effect with several SLFP members approaching the UNP for nominations.

Crossover strategy

The UNP drew first blood on this score Thursday, February 12 by enlisting to the party former Deputy Power Minister and PA MP, Nimalasiri Jayasinghe alias 'Loku Athula' with more to follow in the days leading upto nomination.

In the list of SLFP members to cross the divide will be at least three former ministers and three provincial ministers who on Thursday night met with Prime Minister Wickremesinghe, Minister Ravi Karunanayake and UNP Chairman Malik Samarawickrema separately to map out the crossover strategy.

The President was visibly shaken by this development and made a last ditch attempt to stop 'Loku Athula,' considered one of her loyalists, from crossing over but the member stood his ground stating he can in no way condone an alliance with the party that killed Vijaya Kumaratunga  and would therefore be joining the UNP. He is now expected to contest on the UNP ticket from the Gampaha District.

But the President having taken the plunge was going the full distance, breaking with universally accepted democratic practices by not only appointing two opposition MPs as ministers without consulting the Prime Minister but also sacking all non cabinet ministers.

What is significant in this development is that the President has sacked ministers whose portfolios are not shared by any other member in addition to the deputies, in sharp contrast to the practice she adopted when the PA was in power. Then the President allowed all ministers and the deputies to use the full state machinery right upto election day with none removed.

Her timing of sacking Rehabilitation Minister, Jayalath Jayawardena for example on the eve of the donor community co-chairs meeting in Washington scheduled for February 17 smacks of bad political judgement and did not sit well with the international community, who were already aghast at the dissolution of parliament.

By such actions, the President has effectively queered the pitch for any reconciliation of the two parties even after the election and Prime Minister Wickremesinghe himself got a full measure of this from his ministers who told him that they will move swiftly for her ouster after the elections with or without his support.

Critical

Interestingly, one of the strongest advocates of cohabitation, Milinda Moragoda was also sharply critical of the President, stating he would support any action to remove her after the election if it was done swiftly without labouring over the decision.

Moragoda too was a victim of Kumaratunga's actions last week when he received a rather 'rudely' worded letter relieving him of the deputy ministership of the plan implementation portfolio.

Moragoda was with the Premier when he received the letter and lost his cool stating he was no longer prepared to stay in the cabinet under such circumstances.

He thereafter conferred with the Premier who too agreed Moragoda should resign if he felt strongly about the issue.

With the nod from the Premier, Moragoda with an input from Premier's Secretary Bradman Weerakoon drafted his letter of resignation and handed it to Wickremesinghe.

The letter read as follows:

February 11, 2004

Hon. Ranil Wickremesinghe,

Prime Minister of Sri Lanka,

Temple Trees,

Colombo 3.

My dear Prime Minister,

A letter dated February 9, 2004, from HE the President has just come to hand when I arrived in the island this morning after my visit to Japan connected with numerous issues relating to aid to this country. The President's letter removes me from the post of deputy minister of policy development and implementation. I have also been made aware that all ministers not of cabinet rank and the deputy ministers have also been removed.

As you are aware, over the last two years I have done my utmost to discharge the responsibilities given me in taking all possible steps within my power to assist you in moving the peace process forward, to help modernise our economy, assist the reforms process and obtain the necessary assistance to this country from the international community. Given the current situation I do not think it would be possible in any way for me to contribute to the progress of the country and the welfare of our people.

Under all these circumstances therefore, I do not think that my remaining as a minister of the cabinet would be of any use.

I would therefore request you to take appropriate action to ensure that my resignation from the position of cabinet minister of economic reform, science and technology is given effect to with immediate effect.

I would certainly be available for nomination as a candidate of the UNF for the Colombo District if that would be your wish.

I also wish to take this opportunity to convey my sincere thanks to you for the unwavering trust and confidence that you have always placed in me.

Yours sincerely,

Milinda Moragoda.

This move by Moragoda however saw his cabinet colleagues none too pleased with the ministers at the pre cabinet urging he retract his resignation.

Wrong signal

It was Finance Minister K.N. Choksy who pointed out Moragoda's decision will send a wrong signal given the fact other ministers whose subjects were taken away earlier by the President, including Tilak Marapone, John Amaratunga and Imthiaz Bakeer Markar had not resigned on the Premier's advise.

Chipping in was Power Minister Karu Jayasuriya who said there must be collective responsibility and decision making at a time the President was trying to drive a wedge in government while Labour Minister Mahinda Samarasinghe pointed out two other ministers having deputy ministerships, Mahinda Wijesekera and Bandula Gunawardena will also be shown in poor light due to Moragoda's unilateral decision. The ministers also said Moragoda must be asked to withdraw his letter.

Having listened to the ministers, the Prime Minister said Moragoda was at Temple Trees and could be asked to come in but by that time he had already left and later told Wickremesinghe he resigned in keeping with his conscience and cannot reverse his decision.

That apart, the Prime Minister also told the ministers there was speculation the President would ask him to reduce the cabinet to 15 and inquired how he should respond.

Once again the ministers were unanimous in their view, such a request should not be dignified with a response and it should be left to Kumaratunga to so do if she pleases.

The ministers went on to say they could then decide what to do collectively including resigning enmasse including the Prime Minister thus effectively bringing the ceasefire agreement also to an end.

It was Minister G.L. Peiris who referred to the double standards practiced by the President pointing out Lakshman Kadirgamar as adviser was getting paid in addition to enjoying a fleet of luxury vehicles and an official residence at state expense.

No exceptions

Chipped in Rauf Hakeem - "Let's not attack Kadirgamar," only to see Minister Peiris retorting sharply no such exceptions should be made.

"When they have the tools of office, they attack as mercilessly as can be seen with the state media today but we are very benevolent when the tools are in our hands," he added.

Added Justice Minister, W.J.M. Lokubandara - "We deserve everything dished out if we continue to remain silent."

Making his own contribution at this stage was Minister S.B. Dissanayake who charged, even former MPs Nimal Siripala de Silva, Sarath Amunugama and Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapakse were given official vehicles by the President whilst directing ministry secretaries not to allow them to use official vehicles.

The meeting finally concluded with the ministers vowing to take the battle to the President and after the election move for her ouster, a decision with which the Prime Minister also concurred.

"Enough is enough," were Wickremesinghe's concluding remarks.

Thus, the stage is set for an all out battle with no quarter given and none asked, where the biggest loser will be Mother Lanka.