15th January, 2004  Volume 10, Issue 31

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SPOTLIGHT

The dissolution disaster

By Dilrukshi Handunnetti 

No crystal ball was necessary to predict what was going on in the mind of President Chandrika Kumaratunga when she dramatically wrested control of three vital ministries including defence in November last year.

It is not as if she has failed to give prior warning either. The first round artillery firing occurred even earlier when she made a surprise move and took over the Lotteries Board under her wing alleging corruption.

But, true to style, the complacent UNF government continued to swallow the indignities and like with everything else, adopted a wait and watch policy. What it would politically cost the UNF administration would be known only on April 3 when the poll results are announced.

Defying reason

But what defies reason, except to cast it as an act of sheer political expediency, is how the new alliance could justify the dissolution of a parliament in which Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe commands a comfortable majority with some 130 members supporting the UNF.

Kumaratunga, despite announcing provincial elections and allowing a Dinesh Gunawardena headed committee to recommend the holding of provincial polls on one day to curb election violence proceeded to make a mockery of the exercise by dissolving parliament and negating the entire reform process.

Ending weeks of speculation whether a dramatic dissolution of parliament would be announced or not, President Kumaratunga dissolved the House on February 7, four years ahead of schedule and a day after India's Lok Sabha was dissolved, adding to her decision a contagious regional flavour.

The difference of course being that the Indian polls are almost on schedule whereas the UNF government did command a comfortable majority in parliament when it was dissolved.

But before that, the necessary backdrop was created by the JVP-sponsored trade unions with a wave of strikes crippling the economy. From farmers to fishermen therewere continuous protests. While the PA and the JVP were obviously working towards power ascendancy, the UNF for its part too has done very little to protect its powerbase.

Complaints

Despite the parliamentary majority, an economy that was progressing and a rupee that has appreciated, the UNF has done next to nothing to make sure that the people were made happy. Many were the complaints about the spiraling cost of living and continued unemployment.

Believing they had a full term in office, the UNP was busy strengthening the economic foundationso that the people will  enjoy the benefits in the long term, but the people were not prepared for the wait and Kumaratunga decided to strike before the benefits of the economic reforms filtered to the people.

Strangely, while being its strongest point, it was also the UNF's peace process which eventually turned out to be its biggest undoing.

As JVP's Wimal Weerawansa once publicly declared: "In the eyes of the majority, it was a simple trade off than discussions on power sharing." Needless to say, that adds to the sense of insecurityin the minds of people who feel that there was ample inaction on the part of the government when the truce was blatantly violated on many occasions by the LTTE.

No amount of the promised peaceful land helped to quell the disturbancein the minds of a populace that has been at the receiving and for two decades. It is these insecurities that the fire breathing Marxists of the JVP tapped and is now attempting to convert into a positive vote for them.

Politics takes precedence

In this backdrop, it is the very peace process that has provided the PA- JVP alliance a sufficient political platform that is to take a beating as politics takes precedence over the country's most contentious issue that begs the southern political leadership to work together.

Responding with customary disgust was LTTE Spokesman, Anton Balasingham who had claimed that the dissolution clearly demonstrated the lack of will and vision among the Sinhala political leadership to resolve the country's burning issue.

Balasingham was quoted on the proLTTE website, TamilNet as having said that "the dissolution of the Sri Lankan parliament and the call for a snap election constitutes a grave setback to the peace process. The irrational power struggle and the lack of consensus among the Sinhala ruling elites on the resolution of the ethnic conflict have plunged the entire country into serious political instability and endangers the peace prospects."

Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe has protested that the Chief Executive has put the country's peace process in jeopardy for purposes of political expediency.

On Thursday, Wickremesinghe fired a letter to Kumaratunga alleging the developmental work vital to build confidence were undertaken by the Rehabilitation Ministry and Hindu Religious Affairs Ministry, and with a single pen stroke she has denied both Dr. Jayalath Jayawardena and T. Maheswaran their ministries and hence put development work in limbo.

Moragoda's resignation

"As a result of removing the non-cabinet ministers, Milinda Moragoda also sent in his resignation. He is a member of the negotiating team and was also responsible for demobilisation work, funding rehabilitation, and development work in the north east," he alleged.

Despite the allegations of power hunger by the UNF, the PA-JVP collectively call this a historic opportunity to give a fresh alliance with a nationalistic outlook to serve the country.

Speaking to The Sunday Leader, PA Spokesman, Dr. Sarath Amunugama said that with the country suffering from anarchy due to the existence of a UNF government, it became incumbent upon President Kumaratunga to dissolve the house and test the wish of the people once more.

"There were serious issues concerning national security and sovereignty. People harboured such real fears about their own safety and the President had to take a decision. The spate of strikes, non-addressing of vital issues, the rampant corruption coupled with employing the LTTE imprudently have collectively made her dissolve parliament. It is a conscious decision taken with national interest at heart," said Amunugama.

The theorising and the justification of the dissolution apart, there are more immediate concerns that have arisen following the dissolution. As Country Head, World Bank Peter Harold said in an interview published elsewhere in this section, "there are certain programmes that a caretaker government is unable to undertake."

Naturally, there wouldbe serious repercussions as far as foreign aid is concerned and that does not augur well for a country that still needs to build its image before the international community. After 20 years of war, with the truce returned a sense of peace and normalcy. As Harold had noted, the images of troops deployed before government institutions in the immediate aftermath of the dissolution damages the country's image.

Little room for peace making

While Kumaratunga has moved swiftly to summon the Norwegian monitors for a discussion and to find ways to continue their implementation of the truce, there is little room for peace making on her agenda in the coming months.

Besides the peace platform, one that has taken a severe beating is the economy. From reaching a growth rate of 5.6 last year, the Sri Lankan currency also appreciated for the first time in 50 years during the latter part of 2003. The dissolution also had the immediate impact of the rupee plummeting in value.

In this backdrop, the Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) that was billed for signing on Monday between Thai PM Dr. Thakshin Shinawastra and his Sri Lankan counterpart was called off last Sunday.

Refusing to go ahead with the PTA signing ceremony, the Thai Premier had informed Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister, Ravi Karunanayake to put the house in order first. "He said to first establish political stability in Sri Lanka," said Karunanayake when questioned about the importance of the FTA that was expected to bring considerable trade benefits to the island.

Under the agreement, Sri Lanka was to gain a 55% duty concession for the exporting of tea to Thailand while products such as gold, garments and gems along with service based products were also to come under the banner.

Foreign aid

"It is not just the PTA with Thailand that we have lost right now.Large quantities of foreign aid would be denied to Sri Lanka as a result of this flagrant abuse of power displayed by Kumaratunga," said Prof. G.L. Peiris, addressing a media conference on Thursday.

He said that aid amounting to US$ 51 million for development work in poverty stricken areas like Moneragala and Hambantota Districts and further aid for plantation sector development totalling US$ 180 were to be finalised this month.

In the mle, what has also gone into cold storage is the defence pact Sri Lanka was to shortly enter into with neighbouring India. A senior official from the Indian High Commission speaking on the basis of anonymity told The Sunday Leader while they considered the dissolution "a very political act," what India possibly fails to comprehend is the lack of national interest seen in such action.

"The proposed defence pact was to be an important milestone in maintaining peace and security across the Palk Straits," he said.

However, the general mood in the country seems quite divided - some accuse the PA-JVP alliance of being driven by a sheer lust for power while others seem to endorse the action as one that was timely and necessary to prevent the country from going down the precipice.

While political parties were commencing the finalisation of their nomination lists, there are emerging and disintegrating political alliances as well.

Allegiance to the UNF

The Ceylon Workers' Congress (CWC) was the first political party to announce its allegiance to the ruling UNF. At a media briefing on Wednesday, CWC Vice President, R. Yogarajan said that while the plight of the plantation workers were less than satisfactory and there is many a demand that needs to be met, they would support the UNF simply for its commitment to negotiating peace.

However, the CWC has rejected Upcountry Peoples' Front Leader, P. Chandrasekaran's request to form a grand Tamil alliance with the Tamil political parties of the north east, due to such an alliance not likely to be effective in the hill country.

The UNF's constituent ally, the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) has so far not announced which party would win its support, but SLMC sources indicated it is likely to be the UNF, notwithstanding many concerns of the community, simply to support the continuance of the peace process.

The National Unity Alliance (NUA) and the Eelam Peoples' Democratic Party (EPDP) along with the Communist Party (CP) have extended support to the PA-JVP collective. The Sihala Urumaya has announced its desire to go solo while the New Left Front led by Vasudeva Nanayakkara is desirous of an alliance with other left parties that stand opposed to the PA-JVP coalition as a "true left alternative."

While the south is planning on alliances, there is also pole-vaulting. The jumps are so swift that it reinforces the truth in the saying that there are no permanent friends or enemies in politics.

Delivering a significant political blow, a former PA deputy minister and a key player in the 1971 insurgency, Athula Nimalasiri Jayasinghe alias 'Loku Athula' along with former Kandy PA MP, Thilina Bandara Tennakoon have joined the UNP.

The UNP claims that there are more to follow while the PA confirms that a few are likely to join the broad alliance.

As far as the north is concerned, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) will contest independently but in all probability would extend support to theRanil Wickremesinghe-led UNF when the new parliament is constituted.

Meanwhile, consideration is being given to holding polls in the rebel-held areas in the north east too, according to election officials. "We are considering having polling booths in the areas considered as 'no man's land,' where the land expanse is not held by either government troops or the LTTE."

Polls in the north east

However, LTTE sources said that while they had no wish to allowing the people to visit government controlled areas to cast their votes - underno circumstances would the LTTE tolerate Sri Lankan police and the army entering rebel-held territory to man elections.

With polls becoming almost an annual feature in Sri Lanka, while it may seem a solution to the current political impasse, there is every possibility of creating a more unstable government that could result in a series of other elections. All in all, a terrible indicator that Sri Lanka is fast losing its political democracy.

A total of 196 legislators to be elected

On April 2, the country would elect 196 legislators to parliament. A total of 12,899,032 voters have been registered as at January this year whereas in 2001, the registered voters numbered 12,428, 208 indicating an increase of 470,824 registered voters.

Fifty-one registered political parties registered with the Elections' Department are eligible to field candidates at the forthcoming polls, the latest addition being the new alliance between the PA and the JVP with the betel leaf as its symbol. These parties also include the LTTE's political wing, the Tamil Eelam Liberation Organisation.

With the Elections Commissioner's Department announcing the number of parliamentarians who would get elected from each district, it is Colombo that will have the highest number of MPs while Trincomalee would have the lowest number of representatives.

Colombo will return 20 members while Trincomalee would elect only four MPs. Twenty nine seats would be allocated for nominated members making the total 225. Following are the registered voters in each district and the number of parliamentarians due to be elected according to the revised registry.


Dissolution stuns diplomatic community 

By Risidra Mendis 

With the sudden dissolving of parliament and the calling of a general election by President Chandrika Kumaratunga, the diplomatic community in Colombo is in shock and patiently awaiting the outcome of the election.

While some foreign missions have already put their faith in whatever government that comes into power, others are of the opinion that it is better to wait and see.

Speaking to The Sunday Leader, Press Officer, British High Commission, Margaret Tongue said it is the President's choice to go for a re- election.

"We hope that all parties will work towards having a free and fair election in April and refrain from violence. We have had good relations with the Sri Lankan government up to now and will continue to have good relations with whatever government that comes into power," Tongue said.

Meanwhile, airing his views on the forthcoming general election, First Secretary, Japanese Embassy, Hideaki Matsuo said that the Japanese government is aware of the President's decision to hold a snap poll.

"It is regrettable that last year there has not been a resolution between the President and the Prime Minister regarding the political turmoil in the country," Matsuo said. He went on to say that the Japanese government is hopeful the general election will be conducted peacefully and the halted peace talks would resume. When asked if the Japanese government would continue with their aid to Sri Lanka, Matsuo said the Sri Lankan government has to show stability in the country for the Japanese government to continue with financial aid.

Meanwhile, Spokesperson, United States Embassy in Sri Lanka, Cody Taylor said that the US hopes to work closely with any government chosen by the Sri Lankan people. "Of course our ability to do so will depend on the policies that the government follows," she stressed.

Taylor went on to say that the US hopes that the election process will be an opportunity for the Sri Lankan political parties to explore constitutionally how to move ahead in ending the conflict in the country.

Presenting the view of the United States, she said, "We hope that the election process will be fair and free of violence. Once the elections are over, we urge the political parties to work together to continue the negotiation process. We hope that the campaign and its outcome would not hinder the continuation of the peace process in Sri Lanka."


Parties fight for supremacy

By Mandana Ismail Abeywickrema 

As the country prepares itself for yet another election - the third in four years - political parties are gearing themsleves to hit the platforms with slogans that they hope the masses would 'buy,' and whether they pull it off could only be determined on April 2.

With every party fighting for supremacy, they would each try to adopt a 'holier than thou' attitude.

Political parties while forming new alliances in a bid to secure a majority in parliament, have also come out with diverse ideas as part of their election campaign. While new alliances keep emerging, it is interesting to note the old alliances that are falling apart.

Intra group rivalries

The Tamil National Alliance (TNA), decisive as far as the formation of a future government goes, is having its own intra group rivalries and power struggles to contend with.

In this backdrop, President, TNA, V. Anandasangaree is still contemplating whether he should remain as part of the alliance or go solo.

He told The Sunday Leader he has so far not decided whether he should contest as an independent candidate or under the TNA. Once the decision is made, he said that he would concentrate on the issues that he should address in his campaign.

The National Unity Alliance (NUA) is also undecided on what they should campaign for, as far as the key issues go. Speaking to The Sunday Leader, NUA Leader Ferial Ashraff stated that so far they plan to contest as NUA, adding that speculation that they would join with the Athaullah faction is not true, or not just yet. "We have not made any such statement because we have not decided on such a thing," she said.

Secretary, New Left Front (NLF), Vasudeva Nanayakkara, while maintaining that both the UNP and the newly formed alliance have both done nothing for the country, stated that there was no need at all for the President to dissolve parliament at this juncture.  He explained that since the present parliament could have functioned for four more years due to the simple valid reason that it has not lost its parliamentary majority, there was no justifiable reason for President Kumaratunga to dissolve parliament. "There are grounds constitutionally provided for the dissolution of parliament, but there was no need for it now," he said.

"Undemocratic and militarist"

As for the UNF campaign, Nanayakkara stated that they would ask the masses not to vote for the SLFP-JVP alliance, which is "undemocratic and militarist" in its approach. He stated that they would definitely return to war, adding that the country does not need a war again.

As for the UNP, Nanayakkara stated that people should not vote for the UNP as it is anti-people in its policies and has so far done little to relieve the burden of the suffering masses. He also stated that the UNP always bowed to international pressure and followed their imperialist agendas that did not work well for countries such as Sri Lanka.

Nanayakkara also stated that they would firmly stand for peace and work to protect the democratic rights of the people irrespective of which party or group gets elected to power.

As for new alliances being formed to contest the forthcoming elections, Nanayakkara stated that his party, the Democratic Left Front (DLF), would contest under Dr. Wickremabahu Karunaratne's party, NLF, under the 'table' symbol. Nanayakkara went on to say that they have also invited the Lanka Sama Samaja Party (LSSP) and the Communist Party (CP) to join the NLF and if they agree, they could be given the leadership of the party, which would then contest under the late Vijaya Kumaratunga's party, United Socialist Alliance (USA).

While NLF was planning on a new alliance, condemning the dissolution move was Gajendrakumar Ponnambalam of the All Ceylon Tamil Congress (ACTC). He felt that President Kumaratunga's announcement of snap polls was completely undemocratic and unjustifiable, in addition to having a terrible impact on the possibilities of renewing the political dialogue between the UNF and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) to find a lasting solution to the ethnic conflict.

Ethnic issue

"Her actions were totally uncalled for as the present government commands the majority in the House with 130 seats. Whatever the hiccups may be, they were dealing with the most contentious issue - the ethnic issue," he said. Ponnambalam went on to say that the President and her partymen have failed to consider the larger interest of the people when taking a thoroughly politically motivated decision. "It is nothing but the lust for power that has made her announce polls," he critiqued.

He stated that the ACTC would contest, as they did earlier with the TNA. "We will not be contesting with the UNP or the newly formed alliance of SLFP and JVP, but independently. The ACTC will definitely contest in the north and east and in some districts outside the north and east as well," Ponnambalam said.

As for key issues that they plan to address during the political campaign, Ponnambalam stated that they would rephrase the policies that were used at the earlier elections. The main issue would be to get the international community and the Sinhalese people to recognise the LTTE as representatives of the Tamil people. ACTC will also deal with issues relating to the LTTE.

Gearing up

Meanwhile, the two chief contenders at the hustings, the UNF and the PA-JVP alliance are both gearing up for battle.

UNF Spokesman, Gayantha Karunatilleke said that the UNF intends placing before the people the harm the President's decision has caused to this nation.

"The economy was picking up and the rupee was appreciating.  It is true that we were somewhat slow, but that is largely due to the fact that no amount of overnight miracles by the UNF could put an economy that had been completely devastated for seven years back on track," he said.

As for the campaign itself, he said that the UNF was determined to seek a fresh mandate to usher in peace and also to tell the people how arbitrarily President Kumaratunga has acted since the UNF took over. He said that from the takeover of the Lotteries Board under her wing to the three ministries and now sacking ministers, it has been a terrible track record as far as she went.

"No decent political leader or party would wish to play with the future of the people - which is exactly what Kumaratunga has done, and we would tell the masses just that," he said.

Country's future at stake

Meanwhile, PA Spokesman, Dr. Sarath Amunugama said that the alliance between the PA and the JVP has been in the pipeline for long enough, and the announcement of polls should not have come as such a huge surprise. "The country's future is at stake. That's why we had to make a rallying call to all groups who had national interest at heart. The JVP is a strong political party and together we could make this country prosper," he enthused.

Dr. Amunugama also said that the UNF has been a complete failure when it came to administration and even the much touted peace process has been thoroughly flawed. "The new alliance too would be committed to negotiated peace. We have set out our separate stances in our memorandum of understanding. Hence, the people can have faith that the new alliance would also pursue peace through a dialogue process, but with more responsibility and with national interests at heart," he added.

Meanwhile, the PA's new ally, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) refused to make any comment to The Sunday Leader, adding that they did not wish to speak to the newspaper under any circumstances.

Can Sri Lanka afford elections now?

By Ann Nicholas 

With a whopping Rs. 1 billion to be expended on the general election scheduled for April 2, the question that needs to be answered is whether the country could afford such a costly election at this juncture.

However, analysts feel that three months of uncertainty running up to the elections is also likely to cost the country more than the actual cost of holding it. The cost of delayed investment decisions as a result of investors adopting a 'wait and see' policy is likely to exceed the direct rupee cost of the general election process.

Speaking to The Sunday Leader, Chief Executive Officer, Frontier Research, Amal Sanderatne stated, "The real impact of the elections is the 'wait and see' attitude towards the election outcome and the general dampening of investor and consumer sentiment. The cost of delayed decisions will be higher than the actual cost of the election as a whole."

Strain on the 'marketable' image of Sri Lanka

It is preposterous to deny that the holding of elections at this point of time, adding to the stalled peace process and failure of a consensus between the powers that be, has caused some strain on the 'marketable' image of the country for potential foreign investment. Especially in the tourism industry, where large sums of money have been invested in order to promote Sri Lanka as a tourism destination, the country is likely to lose its bargaining power.

As customary in the run up to all elections held in this country, political parties would continue to make unrealistic promises. As a result, the months following elections will see a rise in the expectations of the people from the government. As experienced on previous occasions, analysts were of the opinion that this will cause pressure on the budget and also affect interest rates and add to inflation.

However, given the situation prevailing in the country since November 3, 2003 onwards following the President's takeover of three vital ministries, analysts feel that it will have only three more months of uncertainty to contend with - this, in Sanderatne's opinion, is "far better than another year of continually failed attempts at cohabitation or reaching a consensus."

He went on to say, "From an economic point of view, while the elections will have adverse affects, it will be favourable to the economy in the long-term, if the uncertainty in the political situation can be overcome to a certain extent."

Police at full strength

With election fever hitting the island, many aspects now need to be looked into. History of local polls in the country show that murder and mayhem play a lead role in any election. With the political scenario heating up, local election monitors fear that this time round too, elections would surely be bloody and violent.

Speaking to The Sunday Leader, Inspector General of Police (IGP), Indra de Silva stated that the deployment of police during elections has not yet been decided. Explaining further, de Silva stated that in some instances the deployment of constables depend on orders made by the Elections Commissioner, who has so far not done so.

De Silva pointed out that election deployment is categorised into three sections - pre-elections, elections and post-elections. The pre-election deployment includes the day of nominations and the campaign leading upto elections. According to de Silva, the police is all set for nomination deployments, adding that they now have to look at the campaigning time and the rest to follow.

De Silva noted that deploying police constables would not be easy as they would have to look at three elections in a very short time. "We would also have to safeguard election laws other than the normal laws," de Silva said.

However, according to de Silva, the police will deploy its full strength for elections. The police has already opened a information book for election complaints and a special unit would tend to these complaints.

According to de Silva, the police is preparing for the elections in consultation with the Elections Commissioner.

*  *  *

"Country's development hampered" - G.L. Peiris 

The current political instability and President Chandrika Kumaratunga's 'undemocratic' actions will seriously hamper the country's development with foreign aid promised being delayed as a result said Cabinet Spokesman Prof. G.L. Peiris. He warned that the country's predicament was such that it ran the serious risk of failing to attract foreign aid as the country no longer has the Rehabilitation, Reconstruction and Refugees Ministry.

He went on to say that the country has already lost millions of dollars - US$ 51 million for the development of Hambantota and Moneragala areas and altogether up to US$ 184 million pledged for the development of the crucial plantation sector.

Economic Reforms Minister, Milinda Moragoda on Wednesday resigned his cabinet portfolio in protest of the President's action to dismiss 39 non cabinet ministers.

Prof. G. L. Peiris however maintained that the cabinet has so far not made any decision to hand in their resignations to protest the President's actions, but added that things could change in the future.

However, according to Prof. Peiris, the mood of the cabinet is upbeat even after Moragoda's resigning. He said that the cabinet has confidence in the intelligence of the people, as such that the government had faith in the people whether the President has acted with their interest at heart or simply pursued her desire to capture political power.

*  *  *

Peter Harold speaks out... 

As the country prepares itself to face yet another general election, the political instability in the country is a causing considerable concern to the international donor community. While the negative impact caused during the past three months has held back some foreign investors from coming in, it has also slowed the US$ 4.5 billion pledged at the Tokyo donor confab last year from reaching the country.

Speaking to The Sunday Leader, Country Head, World Bank, Peter Harold stated that the funds kept coming in, but not as much as expected earlier. He also noted that the impact the present situation would have on the country and investors should have been taken into consideration when making decisive decisions.

Following are excerpts from the interview: 

Q: Do you think that there was any need for President Kumaratunga to dissolve parliament and call for snap polls in the present context?

A: It is a political decision we don't take. We hoped that the government and the President could reach a working relationship. However, it is not a judgment for us to make. Right now, someone has made a decision. The international community kept urging the government and the President to resolve the matter and work together. But now, a decision has been made.

Q: What sort of impact could this 'decision' have on the country as far as the donor community is concerned?

A: There could be several impacts. One aspect is the fear that fiscal control would be lost. With millions of rupees allocated to be spent on elections, the country should make sure that there is sufficient financial control. If not, it could result in a serious fiscal deficit. Otherwise, there would have to be some serious adjustments. As we remember the last time, in 2002, it was not that pleasant.

The second would be political violence. I'm not personally aware of the violence that is generally associated with polls in this island as this would be my first election in Sri Lanka, but I'm told that there's a lot of violence. Economic prosperity of a country depends on its image. However, Sri Lanka was doing well with building its image with the ongoing peace process and that augured much hope.

The last time when a politically disturbing situation occurred, on November 4 when the President took over three portfolios, the country suffered some negative publicity.

The international community watching foreign media reports were disturbed as they watched pictures of state media organisations being guarded by armed forces.

The country does not need those images to be part of its real image. Unlike 20 years ago, with the peace process, Sri Lanka is in the limelight. There is renewed interest in this island of yours.

At such an instance, people seeing pictures of mobs going crazy at political rallies, churches being attacked, priests being attacked, etc. is not going to be good, as it would create a negative impact.

The third aspect is that the current situation in the country should not have an impact on the ceasefire. We have confidence on that issue. Even Anton Balasingham has clearly stated that they would hold on to the peace process. The ceasefire could be violated even by an accident. Therefore, the political parties concerned should get together and come to an agreement.

Q: Will the present situation have an impact on investors?

A: Capital they say, is a coward. People believe that entrepreneurs are risk takers, but it is the opposite. They are very cautious. If there is political instability, they do not come forward to invest.

What took place in November has already done it. Since then, the market too has been volatile. It has also demonstrated the fact that we are dealing with a very thin market. A slight change in the mood fluctuates the market and creates a huge impact.

Political uncertainty is the biggest barrier in investments. When the Mano-Malik committee met, the stock market went up and when they didn't meet thereafter, it plummeted.

Q: What will happen to the US$ 4.5 billion promised at the Tokyo donor confab?

A: There are three aspects to be taken into consideration. First, there are the ongoing projects, which will continue and nobody has even hinted that there is any intention to halt them in the future.

The second is that it got slowed down when the peace process slackened along with and the postponement of some economic reforms that were considered vital. There is no disaster, but there is not much funds coming in or at least not as much as was hoped.

The third aspect is that some types of funding simply cannot happen under a caretaker government. There is no parliament to seek approval from. If a particular credit line depends on parliamentary approval, it won't happen in a situation like this.

It is not a case of the Tokyo money being lost. The commitment was for a period of four years. So there's time to catch up. However, time is of essential importance.

Out of the money pledged, close to US$ 1 billion has already been released by 2003. Out of the US$ 1 billion, close to US$ 300 million came as programme funds and about US$ 700 million as project support (budgetary support). That means roughly US$ 60 million came to Sri Lanka as project assistance.

The fact is that there cannot be any budgetary support until the polls are conducted and completed. However, the rate of disbursement would be lower than 2003 as the budgetary support would be affected.

Money is important, but it is not the most important thing. What is considered most important is the political certainty to make things work. As far as Sri Lanka is considered, a renewed peace process to pursue lasting peace, economic reforms, local investments, etc., are more important than the money from Tokyo.


Call to increase female representation

By Sehan Soyza 

In the most resent census taken by the government, the long held belief that in Sri Lanka women outnumber men was proven to be true. Another general election is due to be held on April 2 and an election is meant to reflect the aspirations of the people and the people's right to elect their representatives to work on their behalf.

In a recent press communiqu‚ issued by the Sri Lanka Women's NGO Forum, it is alleged that Sri Lanka's large majority is going unheard. Hence, the NGO Forum is agitating for a quota system to encourage women to take part in politics.

Worst in South Asia

According to the women's organisation, the Sri Lankan record for women's representation in political and decision-making processes is the worst in South Asia. The collective has further added, "For a country which declares itself to be a socialist democratic state, which is placed at a high level by the UNDP in its Human Development Indicator Measurement, it is unacceptable that throughout the 55 years of independence, women have comprised less than 5% at all levels of government -local government, provincial councils and parliament."

They have strongly urged all political parties to include a minimum of 30% women in the nomination lists submitted for the general elections in April 2004, in their statement issued last week.

They also allege that in all political party hierarchies, often controlled almost exclusively by men, there is a move to stymie women's political representation at the level of nominations, a fact manifested in the nominations submitted for the general elections of 2000 which had only 2.3% of women candidates.

These organisations believe that political parties are reluctant to share 'power' in the real sense with women, hence the refusal to accommodate more women candidates.

They also claim that the Tamil United Liberation Front (TULF), one of the premier Tamil political parties in the country, has not nominated a single female to enter parliament in the history of parliamentary elections.

When asked whether the TULF was averse to the concept of having female parliamentarians, senior TULF Member Joseph Pararajasingham clarified that the party was not prejudicial with regard to women candidates. He said that the problem lay elsewhere and not with those approving nominations.

Social attitudes

According to him, Tamil women generally refrain from politics because of social attitudes of the community towards women engaged in politics. When asked whether a quota system could be introduced to encourage women to participate more fully in politics, Pararajasingham stated that so far the party has not considered such a proposal but added that there is opportunity to adopt such a resolution at the party executive level if a request is made.

It is not just the TULF that has such a bad track record in accommodating female candidates. Activists are alleging that other parties including the two main political parties are equally culpable of insufficiently including women on their national lists and paving the way for women to contest polls.

According to these activists who are once more urging all political parties to provide for sufficient female representation, the practice of political parties have been to use women in election campaigns to gain political mileage but not to always continue with them or make them true political decision makers.

Rejecting the statement outright, PA Spokesman, Dr. Sarath Amunugama said the PA, particularly its main constituent party the SLFP, was the only party in the whole of Asia to put forward two women candidates for both offices of that of the prime minister and president in 1994.

Quota system

Dr. Amunugama further said that there was no need for a quota system for women when they had an executive president to represent them, the highest political office in the country.

According to him, the PA paid much attention to the need to accommodate females and to allow their voices to be expressed as women also formed the majority of voters, 51% to be exact.

Meanwhile, UNP Spokesman Gayantha Karunatilleke speaking to The Sunday Leader stated that the UNP had requested women to come forward to contest.

He said that the party has never prevented women candidates from seeking entry to parliament, but noted that the actual problem was the reluctance on the part of women to come forward.

However, he added that while the party was committed to encouraging more female participants in the election battle, the UNP did not believe in creating a quota as in certain countries such as India.

"We welcome women candidates and do hope there would be better interest this time," he said.

 However, the UNP in its 2001 election manifesto pledged to bring in sufficient women to the fore and to ensure that a minimum of 25% women are accommodated in all central decision making bodies within three years.  Under the 'Regaining Sri Lanka' policy document, the UNF further pledged to adopt legislative measures to ensure that all political parties included 50% of women candidates on their nomination lists for local government polls as well as national level.

Strong representations

Women's groups have also made strong representations to the parliamentary select committee on electoral reform set up last year, demanding better opportunity to enter the political power house. The all-party committee chaired by Dinesh Gunawardena has recommended that one third of all seats at local, provincial and national government should be reserved for women.

Gender equality in political representation is a right enshrined in the UN Convention on the Elimination of all forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW), ratified by Sri Lanka in 1981.

Activists are urging that it is imperative for political parties to recognise and ensure that there is a clear and public acknowledgement of women's involvement and contributions in the political sphere through their equitable inclusion in nomination lists prepared for the forthcoming polls.


Negative response from the public

By Shehan Moses

President Chandrika Kumaratunga's decision to dissolve parliament four full years ahead of schedule may be a cause for celebration for her alliance partners who are eager to taste political power, but to the ordinary voter, it is nothing but an absolute waste of time and money in addition to being an imprudent political move.

The Sunday Leader spoke to some professionals and a cross section of the general public on how they feel about an election in the present juncture, and most responded negatively while a few greeted the move as an opportunity to try out something new.

R.I.T Alles, a renowned educationist said that elections generally had a negative impact on the country's student population and often found it difficult to concentrate on their studies. Alles said that it was unfortunate that this year too polls are intervening with the GCE Advanced Level examination. He said that there is a likelihood of these students losing their concentration with the examinations likely to be held in phases.  "When there is an election, students may listen to the radio and watch TV and all of that could distract them from their studies. Besides their schedules get interrupted," he added.

"Completely unnecessary"

Mohamed Adamaly, a Colombo-based lawyer said that Sri Lanka could not afford an election due to the high cost involved and declared it was completely unnecessary at the present moment.

Adamaly believes that there should be cooperation between the main political parties instead of announcing polls every time there is some political problem. "What is required today is a concerted effort by all parties concerned to resolve the national crisis rather than holding polls which would eventually divide the people. Furthermore, it would certainly prevent the two main parties from coming together to work on a national agenda," he noted.

A doctor who did not wish to be named said that the decision to go for an election stemmed from political expediency than national interest. He noted that both main political parties could have come to an amicable settlement through the Mano-Malik committee and worked out a common programme to solve the present political crisis rather than go for an expensive election. He emphasised that polls right now would be a waste of national resources in addition to creating a platform for election related violence. "What benefit is there for the poor voting public?" he queried.

Research Manager, HNB Stock Brokers, Hasita Premaratne said that an election would cost large amounts of money and would not benefit the country. However, he said that it would be vastly beneficial if the polls create a strong and stable government. He noted that the two main political parties might not be in a position to form a government without the help of the minority parties with the possibility of parties such as the TNA increasing their parliamentary seats.

Flawed decision

President, Private Omnibus Operators' Association, Gemunu Wijeratne claimed that the President's decision to call for fresh polls was a flawed one. Wijeratne said that the country would be thrown 10 years backward in economic development owing to an election that has been thrust upon the people.

Namal, a university student said that an election is required at this moment, as the UNF government has devastated the country, both politically and economically. He said that there was no peace process in the country, and that what was being traded at the negotiating table was the country's sovereignty.

"What could the President do but intervene? Else she would have failed in her duty towards 19 million people," he said.

Sampath, a three-wheeler driver was of the opinion that the UNF government largely due to its privatisation programme has ruined the country. He noted that the President should have dissolved parliament and gone for an election sometime ago and not waited this long.

Speaking to The Sunday Leader, Jayalath, a retail shop owner said that the country is unable to bear the cost of this election. He said that the dissolution was done at the behest of outside forces that have now formed a political alliance with her party, the PA. He also feared that his business would collapse due to the bad socio-economic conditions stemming from the country's economic instability.


PAFFREL gears up to ensure free and fair election

By Jamila Najmuddin

While the country gears for polls, President Chandrika Kumaratunga has appointed a special crime prevention committee to avoid election violence in the country.

While 50 deaths were reported in 2001 due to election violence, 100 international monitors are expected to arrive in the country after March 23 to monitor the upcoming election and ensure it is held in a free and fair manner.

Election monitors

Speaking to The Sunday Leader, Chief Executive, People's Action for Free and Fair Elections (PAFFREL), Kingsley Rodrigo stated that PAFFREL has contacted the Asian Network for Free Elections, and 100 election monitors will be sent by them from all parts of the world.

"We currently have 14 monitors in the country but they are presently in Ampara to observe the local government elections which are due to be held on February 21," Rodrigo said.

He further stated that PAFFREL has informed the President that the candidates contesting for the upcoming elections should be 'suitable' candidates.

"We have informed the President that candidates should be suitable so that the public can be satisfied in voting for them. They basically should not be underworld leaders," added Rodrigo.

'Citizen committees' are also to be formed in districts, and they would mandatorily consist of religious dignitaries. These committees are expected to work with PAFFREL to prevent the eruption of political violence.

"General elections or presidential elections have to be held all over the island as everyone has the right to vote," stated Rodrigo. Similarly, PAFFREL will also deploy its observers in all the areas where polls are to be conducted.

Citizen committees

Rodrigo further stated that citizen committees would be appointed in the north and east as well, and this time, people in refugee camps also might have the opportunity to vote.

Speaking to The Sunday Leader, President, Sarvodaya, Dr. A.T. Ariyaratna stated that the upcoming general elections could jeopardise the existing ceasefire agreement.

"An election at this time is unnecessary as leaders should have solved their differences without going into elections. The candidates elected for the upcoming elections should be decent human beings with no criminal records and no connections to with the underworld. We should have good men elected as ministers. Men going around squandering government property and misusing government property should not be elected," added Ariyaratna.

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