And as the results of Friday’s general elections trickled in in the wee hours of yesterday morning, it seemed that no one had much to crow about. The great alliance had won just 105 seats, well short of the 113 needed to form a government. While many in the red-and-blue camp no doubt took consolation from the fact that they had secured a clear 12 seats more than the UNF, fat lot of good there is in that if a majority still cannot be found.

Even as the results were coming in, and it became clear that neither the alliance nor the UNF had a working majority, feelers were sent out to the two minority parties to see how they would be disposed towards joining up with either the alliance or the UNF. For its part, the alliance’s overture to the Jathika Hela Urumaya was spurned without so much an agreement on a high level meeting. The UNF has chosen to leave the JHU well alone, on the basis that a party tying up with the monks would find it impossible to work towards a solution to the north east issue that is at the same time acceptable to the Tamils and to the Tigers.

The mammoth support the TNA received from the Tamil population wherever they contested should be proof enough to show that the Karuna-Prabha split is not something the Tamils perceive to have weakened their cause. Likewise, the Tamils of both the north and the east have shown the EPDP the door and rallied round the TNA, and by extension, the LTTE. Anyone who hoped that the recent differences between the Tamils of the north and the east would offer opportunities to divide and rule must find himself pretty bewildered by this.

The question is then whether a working relationship between the TNA and the UNP might be possible. Early yesterday morning, feelers to this effect were sent out. Although no substantive talks had taken place as we went to press, many observers felt that the TNA would be likely to agree to an arrangement with the UNF, though the pound of flesh demanded might not be one that Ranil Wickremesinghe can afford to give up. The question also arose as to the morality of not inviting the largest party in parliament being invited to form the government, with the UNF, TNA and JHU waiting in the wings to play watchdog. Even though not in government, these three parties could oversee parliamentary business, appoint a speaker of their choice, and even go through with impeaching the President: all in the framework of an alliance government. At the same time Kumaratunga will be hard pressed to deliver the pledges of subsidies for farmers, 50,000 jobs for the unemployed and all the goodies within the three month time frame she promised. And heaven knows where the money will come from for this bag of goodies.

All this goes to show what a right royal pickle Sri Lanka has got itself into as a result of Chandrika Kumaratunga’s greed to perpetuate her political hegemony in Sri Lanka. Her SLFP has now been reduced to a fragment of its former self, with the JVP having swept into office across the alliance seats. Many influential SLFPers are on the street this morning, waiting to pick up the crumbs from under the JVP’s table. Kumaratunga gambled all, and has now been left holding both the baby and the bathwater.

Unable to accept defeat, it is inevitable that Kumaratunga will now seek to appoint a minority government led by herself. No doubt the opposition will extend to her a brief honeymoon before going on the attack. But she will have to play by their rules, handing over the speakership and key parliamentary posts to the opposition. While she is unable to dissolve parliament for another year, she now faces an inevitable impeachment motion early next year, if only to prevent her from dissolving parliament yet again prior to the presidential election, which hangs above her like the Sword of Damocles.

Regardless of what the Supreme Court decides with regard to the Chief Justice’s second swearing in of Kumaratunga to give her a further year and a half as president, it is now unlikely that parliament, which is yet above the Supreme Court, will allow it. Thus, the country is almost certain to face a presidential election in early 2005, less than a full year from now, requiring party leaders to think carefully how they act now, in case they jeopardise their chances for the big apple shortly to come. And another general election will follow that presidential election as surely as night follows day.

The question now is whether Kumaratunga will seek to buy MPs from wherever she can so as to form the constituent assembly she intended to do, but now cannot for want of a majority. That is her only hope, but one wonders whether the UNF, TNA and JHU, who together have 17 seats more than she does, would be likely to break with their constituencies by jumping in merely to prolong Kumaratunga’s political existence.

The upshot then, is that Sri Lanka is in for a turbulent few years. There is hardly any chance of the LTTE coming to the negotiating table so long as Kumaratunga is President, and there is every chance of the ceasefire breaking down. Were the UNF and TNA to join hands and seek to form a government (which they could easily do, of course), they would in effect alienate the entire voter base that subscribed to the other faith. Rather than do this, the challenge Wickremesinghe should set himself now is to lead a strong opposition, show up the weaknesses of the alliance government, build confidence with the minorities, and seek to win both the presidency and the parliament come 2005.

That however, is no secret, and with an alliance government, the UNF can settle down for a long witch hunt of victimisation the coming year, with numerous prosecutions, raids and commissions of inquiry. When a government cannot fill the stomachs of its people, the next best thing is to entertain them by throwing people to the lions.