Colombo's wake up call

By Amantha Perera  "Just because there is no war at this moment does not mean that there is peace. At present, the war has been temporarily halted. That is all."

Scenes inside Kollupitiya Police Station following the suicide attack last Wednesday

On July 5, the Black Tiger commemoration day, these words appeared on the LTTE Peace Secretariat website, attributed to President Chandrika Kumaratunga.  Forty eight hours later, Colombo found out that the cessation of hostilities was most certainly at a temporary standstill. A female suicide bomber detonated herself inside the Kollupitiya Police Station while under interrogation.

Pirapaharan lighting the martyrs' lamp

The woman had been taken into custody after her persistent attempts to meet Hindu Affairs Minister and EPDP Leader Douglas Devananda had failed. She wore the tell-tale LTTE trademark suicide jacket, albeit smaller than usual.

'Spectre from the ashes'

The suicide bombers had risen again like a spectre from the ashes of the ethnic conflict to haunt the calm that had more or less held since February 2002, when the bilateral ceasefire came into effect.

Only two weeks ago the LTTE warned that the continuing armed action against its cadres in the east would seriously undermine the peace efforts. The July 5 message on the website said that the government was waging a proxy war against the LTTE. LTTE high rankers have been warning for some time that they would have to take action against the violence directed against them. On the same day the statement was released, two LTTE political wing members were shot dead in the east. The killings came during the Black Tiger commemorations that were being held on a grand scale all over the north and east. The main ceremony in fact took place in Nelliady, east of Jaffna town.

Early last week on July 6 , the Hingurakkgoda Magistrate  released on bail 14 Tamil youth in possession of weapons who were arrested by the police at a temple. The LTTE office in Batticaloa said that the youth were identified as supporters of Karuna and that the arrest and the release proved all over again Colombo's collusion with the renegade former Eastern Commander. This was after evidence surfaced that the youth had been housed at a temple of a defeated Jathika Hela Urumaya bhikku candidate. In Tiger talk, the flames were being fanned.

No direct blame

However, the blame for the shootings was laid on 'unknown gunmen' and not directly on the security forces. "On July 5, 9.15 a.m. Batticaloa town Head of Political Wing, Mr.Senathirajah and Mr.Nilan were shot by unknown gunmen using handguns while they were riding a motorbike through Sri Lanka Army controlled Arasady Junction," said a message from the LTTE political office in Batticaloa. It went on to say that the LTTE had requested the security forces to put a stop to the killings as they were taking place in government controlled areas.

"We have told the SLA officers several times during phone conversations and during discussions that stopping killings in the east is in SLA's hands."

High ranking security officials in Colombo had alerted superiors last week on the blame game on 'unknown gunmen'. "It is dangerous, this can be anybody and everybody," was the message conveyed.

In the east, there are so many factions harbouring grudges against the LTTE. Razick Group operates in army uniform and has its own camp along Lake Road in Batticaloa. The EPRLF (Varthan Wing) housed along Lake Road, though provided with arms, has refrained from appearing armed in public since the ceasefire. EPDP too has its own office in Batticaloa, but like the EPRLF has refrained from appearing armed in public. The Mohan group within the PLOTE too is operating with the army, especially in intelligence operations. Any one of these groups can easily take advantage of the shift in the balance of power created by the Karuna rebellion.

"The east is like what Colombo was during 1988/1989. There is the police, the army and the rest of the lot, but things are happening. That is not to say that Karuna is in control, or that the LTTE is. It is in a flux," military forces sources said.

LTTE prepared for war

The suicide attack comes in the wake of warnings by LTTErs that despite the peace process, they were well and truly prepared for war and in the midst of efforts to reclaim control of the east.

The latest such warning came from Commander, Charles Anthony Brigade, (one of the LTTE's elite brigades), Amitahb, during the Black Tiger commemorations in Trincomalee. "We are not prepared to carry dead bodies any more. But if the war is thrust on us we would face it and defeat the government's military strategies. Still, we are committed to a peaceful, negotiated settlement on the basis of self-determination to live in our homeland with equal rights," he said.

If the accusations by the EPDP are correct, the LTTE last week proved that its patience had run out on the eastern situation and that it had decided to fight fire with fire. This was despite a belief among some intelligence officers in Colombo as reported in The Sunday Leader three weeks ago that the Tigers would not risk bringing the war to Colombo. Others who had watched the Tigers in the past, were firm that the Tigers would revert to violence and the theatre would be Colombo.

"The LTTE is constrained from commencing war. But they are ready to attack with significant capability in the capital. They will carry out large scale attacks in the capital," observed International Terrorism Expert, Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies in Singapore, Rohan Gunaratna.

Kilinochchi's silence

The Tigers waited almost 24 hrs after the attack to offer any sort of comment. Soon after the bomber killed herself, there was silence from Kilinochchi. "It's news to us," was the only remark.

However on the morning of Thursday, July 8, the Tigers said that they had nothing whatsoever to do with the attack on Devananda and blamed it on elements out to disrupt the peace process, without being clear on who the elements were.

"This is an act to destabilise the peace process. We suspect this has been carried out by elements that want to disrupt the peace process," LTTE Political Wing Head, S.P. Tamilselvan was officially quoted as saying soon after the intimation was made unofficially.

Despite the denial and assurances by the likes of SLFP General Secretary, Maithripala Sirisena that the peace process would continue, last week's suicide attack will have its effects on the process. "It most certainly will; for starters it is a very clear signal to the government that something has changed," said a source with intimate details of progress in the peace process.

Economic implications

The attack sent shivers down the spine of investors and the business community. The stock market fell by 20 points on July 5. The economy is already showing cracks with rising oil prices and the rupee that has plunged 7% since late last year. So any more hits on the economy, and the pinch will be felt.

It was clear that the government was worried about the economic fall out. "Chairman of the Sri Lanka Tourist Board emphasised that there is no risk to tourists holidaying in Colombo and those planning trips from Colombo to any favourite travel destination in other parts of the country," the Ministry of Industry, Tourism and Investment Promotion said, soon after the blast. Not hitting panic stations yet, but anxiety is written all over the statement.

The fear of an economic backlash is very real. The news of the blast hit world headlines. For a while it was the main Asian news item on the immensely popular portal Google. The stories linked the blast to the last suicide attack that took place in Colombo, the July 27, 2001 attack on the Katunayake Airport.

Wednesday's bombing overshadowed the Black Tiger commemorations and the surrendering of a Sri Lanka Army soldier to the LTTE earlier in the week. The main commemoration event took place at the Nelliady College where Captain Miller carried out the first acknowledged suicide attack in 1987. Miller's mother was among the chief guests and said that she was proud of what her son had done. She lit the martyrs' lamp at the ceremony that was attended by four bands. The portraits of the 140 martyrs from Jaffna, the official LTTE count, were paraded in the streets and police and the army were present close by. The Police restricted traffic along the roads where the processions were making their way.

However not all parents were as glowing in their tributes as Miller's mother was. According to eyewitness accounts, only about one fourth of the parents of the 140 suicide cadres were present at the ceremony. One mother who lost a child to the suicide cadres said that she was not attending the commemorations because the LTTE had prevented her from meeting her other child, who is also a member, for two years.

LTTE leader Pirapaharan too attended the commemorations at an undisclosed location like last year. He garlanded a portrait of Miller and the LTTE said that 261 cadres had perished in suicide attacks.

The LTTE also released two audio cassettes and a video movie on the Black Tigers. Sea Tiger Head, Soosai and Intelligence Head Pottu Amman too participated in the commemoration attended by Pirapaharan.

Runaway soldier

On Tuesday, a soldier from the army, 22 year old Wasantha Vithanage sought protection at the LTTE Nallur office in Jaffna. Earlier in the day, he had taken aim at a senior officer but missed. As punishment, the army made him carry a heavy load in public and he ran into a house while carrying it.

It was there that he sought protection. From the Nallur office he was brought to the main Jaffna office where his fate was being discussed between the army, SLMM officers in Jaffna and the LTTE throughout the evening of July 6. Finally late that night, Vithanage decided to go back to the army.

The interesting point in the whole saga was that Vithanage said that he joined the army in 1996 and his ID card indicated that he was born in 1982. If the details were correct, he would have joined the army when he was 14. To the LTTE it sounded like a child soldier, but since he went back to the old fold, the story did not proceed very far.

The violence so far that had been limited to the east reached the capital last week. While the Tigers have kept passing the buck at Colombo to move closer to talks, the government has so far remained loath to indicate clearly to the Tigers which way Colombo is swaying. It has been turning like a top. Going by last week's events, time is a precious commodity in Colombo's hands.