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Market
bull run unlikely to last
By
Jamila Najmuddin
The
current bull run at the Colombo Stock Exchange is not likely to last
due to the country's economic fundamentals not being strong enough to
sustain such a bull run. Market analysts predict a period not
exceeding three months for market correction.
Research
Manager, HNB Stockbrokers, Hasitha Premaratne told The Sunday Leader
that while the stock market is currently on the rise, there was a real
threat of interest rates increasing and the stock market being
affected due to the stalled peace process and the high rate of
inflation.
"The
market is currently moving strong due to the absence of bad news in
the market but however this does not mean that there is any good news
as well. The macro picture of the market within the next three months
is that there is a threat of interest rates going up due to the rise
in inflation," Premaratne said.
Premaratne
said the market was on the rise due to strong buying interest rates.
"The macro point of the market at the moment is good due to the
Central Bank's commitment in maintaining low interest rates. The
economic results within the first quarter was also very good and
investors were more confident and took advantage of this
situation," he said, adding that since the economic policy
statement issued by the government was very promising, most
importantly in fiscal discipline, a positive attitude has been set in
the minds of the investors.
He
said the additional one hour of trading and the increase in foreign
buying in most counters are other reasons for the rise in the stock
market.
Meanwhile,
CEO, Barclay Stock Brokers, R. Muralitharan told The Sunday Leader
that if the peace process did not move forward soon, then the stock
market would "come crumbling down." "The peace process
plays a vital role in each and every market. If the government and the
LTTE do not commence talks soon, the end result would be the market
crashing completely," he said.
However,
he added it was too early to predict whether the interest rates would
increase and the stock market would go down in the next few months
even though the country was facing a high inflation rate. According to
Muralitharan, this was due to the strong demand and supply taking
place amongst traders in the market. "This is the main reason why
the stock market has currently risen. However, the increase in the
hours of trading does not have any affect in the stock market rising
as this has not increased movement in the market," he said.
Director,
CT Smith, Rohan Fernanado said the future of a "positive stock
market" now depends on how the government and the LTTE move ahead
with the peace process. "Although we cannot predict whether the
interest rates would increase in the next couple of months, even if
there is a high rate of inflation in the country, there is a
possibility of the stock market crumbling if the government and the
LTTE do not give positive signs on the peace process," Fernanado
said.
He
said that stock market is presently rising due to domestic and foreign
investors investing in the market and the increase in turnover.
"The increase in trading hours does not have any immediate affect
on the rise in the stock market as we are still getting used to this
idea," he said.
Senior
Research Analyst, DFCC Stock Brokers, Nelika Rajapakse said that due
to the rupee depreciating further and the rise in rate of inflation,
there is a threat of the interest rates increasing and the stock
market going down in the next couple of months.
"The
biggest threat that the country is facing right now is the
depreciating value in the rupee. If this continues further then there
would be less activity in the market and there would be a possibility
of investors shifting their funds someplace else," Rajapakse
said, adding that the current rise in the market was due to good
corporate results and good year end results achieved by companies like
John Keells Holdings.
"Good
year end results plays a very important role in the stock market and
since the peace talks have not yet broken down, the market has
remained steady," Rajapakse said.
WB
support continues
By
Mandana Ismail Abeywickrema
Vice
President, World Bank (WB), South Asia Region, Praful Patel last week
pointed out since the signing of the first loan between the bank and
the government of Sri Lanka in 1954, the country is yet to reach the
anticipated levels of development. Patel lamented it has been a
frustrating wait to see the country reaching its desired levels of
development in the past 50 years.
Patel
however assured Sri Lanka the World Bank will continue to support the
country, adding that out of the US$ 400 million allocated for the
country's various development projects, 40% had been disbursed as
grants.
Country
Head, Peter Harrold said that out of the US$ 175 million approved in
the recent past, US$ 115 million was disbursed in the form of grants.
As for the future, Patel observed that the bank's assistance will
continue like in the past two years, adding however, that a successful
peace process would bring in more funds for the country as donors too
would disburse more money.
The
bank's rate of disbursement for Sri Lanka, which is approximately 24%,
according to Patel is the highest rate in the region.
Focusing
his attention on three specific topics - equity, regional integration
and creating awareness on HIV/AIDS - Patel noted that the past few
years have witnessed an erosion of the high levels of equity, which
once existed in the country. He observed that while the Western
Province contributes 48% of the country's GDP, the Northern Province
contributes a mere 2.6% with the Eastern Province contributing 4.9%.
Speaking
of implementing an interim administration in the north east, Patel
said that the absence of an interim administration is not preventing
the World Bank from disbursing money, adding however, that there is a
chance of seeing an increased rate of funds flowing in if it was in
place.
Patel
also said that although the country has presented the donor community
with a good policy statement, everyone is still awaiting more details
and specifics. Last Thursday, President Chandrika Kumaratunga said
that despite controversies, she believed the World Bank has played an
essential and important role in the nation's development.
'Call
termination' widespread
By
Marianne David
While
Voice over IP (VoIP) offers lower call costs, in Sri Lanka
unscrupulous parties are now doing what is termed as 'call
termination' - an illegal operation - and depriving authorised
telecommunications authorities of monies received from international
calls.
The
future of voice communication will be based on the internet,
Chairman/CEO, Qwest, Richard C. Notebaert once said. Voice over IP
gives customers the ability to use a high-speed data connection to
make voice calls to others over the internet or a private network
rather than over the public switched telephone network.
Speaking
to The Sunday Leader, Director (Technical), Suntel, Mahinda
Ramasundara stated that call termination was illegal, an opinion
mirrored by an official of Sri Lanka Telecom (SLT) who confirmed this
is fast becoming an issue with more and more people adopting this
method.
"Even
though it is illegal, you can use any line to do this and it is done
through the internet," said the SLT official, who wished to
remain anonymous. As a result of this, those with the legal authority
to send calls outside are affected, he further said.
Credit
Control Manager, Lanka Bell, M. Rustum speaking to The Sunday Leader
said that while people obtain lines for normal businesses, some people
make illegal use of the line in this manner. Comparing this operation
to the brewing of illicit liquor, Ramasundara said it is a problem
that is not easy to control.
"This
started as a result of the liberalisation of international services,
which has been misunderstood and misused by people," he said.
Ramasundara asserted that call termination is "against the
rules" and that the number of calls made in this manner is on the
increase.
"Various
kinds of people do this. Normally, there are licensed
telecommunication operators who bring in international traffic to Sri
Lanka. Now there are people who bring in international traffic and
terminate the call in Sri Lanka as a local call," he explained.
When
calls come through a legal channel, operators get the benefit of the
international call but with this system, the party doing it collects
the international rate from the other end and pays the
telecommunications operator for a local call, said Ramasu-ndara.
He
further said that proving this kind of case in a court of law is not
easy and if the prices of international calls come down closer to the
levels of a local call from the other end, "doing this would
become worthless."
Exports
increase
The
brightening global situation along with the well performing external
sector has resulted in a significant increase in exports, especially
industrial exports. Earnings from industrial exports, other than
textiles and garments increased substantially by 59%, continuing an
upward trend in other industrial exports.
According
to the Central Bank, the higher growth of this component in April 2004
was attributable to an increase in machinery, mechanical and
electrical (211%).
Central
Bank records further state that while there has been an increase in
machinery, mechanical and electrical equipment, there has been a 5-6%
increase of total industrial exports when compared with the previous
year.
In
the export sector, other exports in the field that have seen an
increase are jewellery by 41%, diamonds 59%, petroleum products 16%,
chemical products 44% and food, beverage and tobacco by 14%. Exporting
of rubber products, wood articles and wall tiles too have seen an
increase.
Speaking
to The Sunday Leader, Rupa Dheerasinghe from the Central Bank's trade
division said that the main components exported under machinery,
mechanical and electrical are parts for aeroplanes and helicopters.
Dheerasinghe
explained that wires, cables, etc., have also seen an increase in
exports. Other parts that have been exported include automatic data
processing units, magnetic and optical radars, electrical
transformers, static converters, inductors (less than 1 kw per hour),
machine tolls, copper and copper based parts among an array of parts.
However,
the expansion of exports was not sufficient to cover the increase in
imports. As a result, the trade deficit widened by US$ 158 million to
US$ 724 million in the first four months of 2004. Higher inflows to
the services account from higher tourist earnings and earnings from
port related activity, as well as increasing worker remittances,
partly offset the impact of the higher trade deficit.
-
Mandana Ismail Abeywickrema
Angsana
takes over Deer Park
The
Jinasena Group owned Deer Park Hotel in Giritale, Polonnaruwa
officially opened its doors as a 'Colours of Angsana' property last
week. The opening of the all-cottage hotel formalises the much delayed
entry of Singapore based Angsana Resorts & Spa into Sri Lanka.
The
luxury resort and spa operator, which is a subsidiary of award-winning
Banyan Tree Hotels & Resorts, has entered into a management
agreement with the Jinasena Group to manage this 77 cottage property.
As part of the agreement, the hotel's cottages and common areas have
been given an extensive facelift. The hotel interior has been
redesigned to feature bright colours and Asian craft, and
refurbishment done to reflect the personality of the Angsana brand.
The hotel also features the signature Angsana Spa, the first in Sri
Lanka and the Angsana Gallery.
Explaining
the rationale for the handing over of management to Angsana, Chairman,
Jinasena Group, Dr. Nihal Jinasena told journalists visiting the hotel
last week that it had become imperative to break away from the status
quo of catering to the mass market. "We saw the need for radical
repositioning of the hotel to attract high-end tourists, as the hotel
was built in 1996 with this very goal in mind."
However
subsequent economic compulsions had forced the Deer Park like every
other hotel to abandon this strategy and focus on the mass market.
With first class infrastructure in place, Dr. Jinasena's son Nihal who
had graduated from university was quick to see the futility of this
strategy and embarked on a repositioning exercise to go upmarket and
cater to the originally intended clientele. Dr. Jinasena explained
that it was with this in mind that discussions began with the
Singaporean firm which had proved its expertise with similar
properties in the Asian region.
"The
Banyan Tree Group has always recognised the vast tourism potential of
Sri Lanka," said Chairman, Banyan Tree Holdings Pte. Ltd., Ho
Kwon Ping. "We bring to the table our management expertise and
the service standards of a world-class hotel brand. Deer Park Hotel
will offer the adventurous yet discerning traveller the comforts of a
quality hotel, adding a fine touch to the soft adventure and cultural
experience of this location. This is what makes the hotel unique and
this is our competitive advantage."
Chairman
Dr. Jinasena is clear about his intentions - "The aim of this
agreement is to make Deer Park the most sought after hotel in Sri
Lanka." To achieve this goal already "millions of rupees
have been spent on refurbishment" and a majority of the staff
trained overseas by Angsana.
"Deer
Park Hotel is now set to enjoy a higher profile among the travel trade
and visitors alike. We are confident that the new and improved hotel
and our partnership with Angsana Resorts & Spa will bring it to
the international stage and attract new market segments," said
Lalin Jinasena of the Jinasena Group.
With
the official opening, Deer Park Hotel will be positioned as a premier
hotel in the Polonnaruwa area and presented to a global market,
primarily targeting Europe and selected Asian countries, including
Japan and China. The international marketing and sales team of Banyan
Tree Holdings will promote the hotel to its international network of
travel agents such as Elegant Resorts, Tropical Locations and Premier
Holidays.
The
PATA 2003 gold award winning Deer Park Hotel website has also been
developed as a key marketing tool as well as a medium of sales. Room
rates have been determined to compete affectivity with high-end
boutique hotels in the neighbouring areas and are to be doubled for
the upcoming winter season, said Jinasena.
In
alignment with the 'Colours of Angsana' promise of soft adventure and
cultural tourism experience, the hotel will offer guests tour options
presenting a potpourri of sights, sounds, nature, culture and history.
Angsana
Gallery, the 700 sq.ft. gallery, is introduced as a signature feature
within the 'Colours of Angsana' collection of properties, which Deer
Park Hotel is now a part of.
Angsana
Gallery, Deer Park Hotel offers exotic souvenirs, traditional
handicrafts, rustic home furnishings and unique gifts that reflect the
cultural vibrancy of the UNESCO would heritage sites nearby. As with
all shops managed by the Banyan Tree Group, Angsana Gallery will
retail products with a corporate social responsibility mission. The
Deer Park Hotel outlet supports amongst other worthy projects, the
Millennium Elephant Foundation in Sri Lanka with its elephant dung
products. Guests who take home one of these unique handmade photo
frames or diaries will help to sustain the welfare of old and disabled
tuskers (elephants used for timber and tourism work) while raising
international awareness of this endangered animal.
Angsana
Gallery, Deer Park Hotel, is the latest addition to the 15 Angsana
Gallery outlets. Two more Angsana Galleries will open in Laos and
China this year within 'Colours of Angsana' properties. Angsana
Gallery outlets can be found in resort destinations in Australia,
Indonesia, Maldives, India, Thailand and Taiwan. Angsana Gallery was
awarded PATA gold award (heritage) 2003 by Pacific Asia Travel
Association for its role in promoting Asian culture and heritage.
Designed
and built by Architrave Design Pte. Ltd., the architectural arm of
Singapore-based parent company Banyan Tree Holdings, the spa complex
is adjacent to the hotel and occupies a sprawling 4,300 square metre
land area. It comes with four indoor air-conditioned treatment rooms
and five outdoor spa pavilions. Angsana Spa at Deer Park Hotel has a
complete range of spa equipment and specially created Angsana spa
products.
The
facilities are designed to offer treatments that have been researched
and developed by the Banyan Tree Spa Academy based in Phuket,
Thailand, which also trains therapists for Angsana Resorts and Spas.
The
Angsana Spa at Deer Park Hotel will bring to locals and visitors the
international standards of a world-renowned spa group. Angsana Spa
Double Bay Sydney (Australia) was recently voted number six in the
'Overseas Urban Day Spa' category of Conde Nast Traveller's Readers'
Spa Awards 2004. Readers voted for spas around the world based on
their satisfaction with the ambience, d‚cor, amenities, body and
facial treatments, cuisine, exercise programmes and service quality.
Angsana Spa Double Bay scored 93.33 points out of a possible 100.
Banyan
Tree recently bought a controlling 70% interest in Hotel Swanee,
Beruwala from John Keells Holdings. Banyan Tree hopes to develop this
property in order to complement the Deer Park in order to offer
clients a complete Sri Lankan experience Angsana style and towards
this end plans are also underway to open a spa in Colombo at Crescat,
and also the acquisition of an up-country bungalow or two to be
transformed into 'Colours of Angsana' resorts, said Ho Kwon Ping.
Upfa
moving from private to public?
By
Dinesh Weerakkody
All
governments, whether in developed or developing countries engage
themselves in entrepreneurial activity to some degree at least. In the
centrally planned economies, the involvement is almost total whereas
in open economy situations, at the other end of the scale, state
involvement is minuscule, and maybe confined to a few public utilities
such as rail, road, communications, power and water.
In
most developing economies, state ownership and state enterprises is
still a common feature irrespective of political ideology. Open
economies are now generally the accepted norm in the developing
nations.
Intervention
In
Sri Lanka, state intervention was first in the service and in the
areas of transport (railway), telecommunication, post and power. The
bus services were taken over in 1956; the Bank of Ceylon, which began
in 1931, was nationalised in 1963. The People's Bank was setup as a
state venture in collaboration with the Cooperative Movement.
Insurance business was also nationalised. State trading was
consolidated in the 60s and 70s so that foreign exchange could be
conserved. The nationalisation of plantations was also a significant
step.
In
1977 with the advent of the UNP government there was a change of
direction and the government sought a departure of a mixed economy and
towards a free and liberalised economy. Since then all governments
have maintained the free market model to win the support of the donor
community.
Objectives
of the state
Today,
solving the unemployment problem is the most pressing issue. The
unemployment rate today is over 10 percent. Therefore the current
government should aim to promote long term growth and large-scale
domestic employment on an urgent basis not by handouts but by
promoting the private sector.
In
fact our development objectives should be to:
1.
The acceleration of the growth rate.
2.
Expansion of employment through private investment.
3.
Expansion of the nation's capitol stock.
4.
Alleviation of poverty.
It
has been stated that the extension of the manufacturing sector under
competitive conditions is seen as necessary for generating exports and
foreign exchange. It is now recognised by the UPFA that a healthy
public sector should exist side by side with the private sector.
Unfortunately,
however, some public enterprises are becoming an intolerable burden on
the budget and on the people of the country. We all know a budget
deficit can be a great burden on people. The large allocations to
public enterprises directly from the budget have drastically reduced
financial provisions for several essential sectors or in the
alternative have resulted in increased direct taxes to the people.
Unless
we do something immediately to improve the efficiency of public
enterprises, the implication for the future is likely to be serious.
The people ultimately have to pay for the sins of commission and
omission of public corporation.
On
the other hand, the private sector is not developed enough to
undertake heavy investments particularly in infrastructure and certain
essential investments with low direct rates of return although the
social rate of return is very high. In such instances the private
sector does not have the capacity or the will to undertake certain
types of investments.
As
a result, in several countries not only in the socialist world but
also with free market economies, governments have created very
efficient public enterprises.
However,
the reality is that in most developing countries due to political
interference, most public sector corporations run at a loss and are
therefore a burden on the budget and ultimately a burden on the
people. Every man, woman and child in the country will pay for these
losses by way of direct or indirect taxes.
Profit
Financially,
profit or losses should normally be the criterion in evaluation of the
performance of any public enterprises. However, this criterion should
be used with some caution when evaluating the performance of certain
state enterprises.
Certain
public enterprises are not entirely free to fix prices and also
because they are often required to perform relatively uneconomic
services which would not be undertaken by private commercial
establishments, invariably these state enterprises end up being a
burden to the nation.
The
Rajapakse Committee in its report on corporations points out that a
public corporation operates on a system of multiple motives and that
accounting profits should not be the sole standard for judging the
efficiency of public corporation.
A
suitable test of efficiency depends at least to some extent on whether
the corporation provides facilities that are reasonably adequate to
meet public needs at prices which are reasonable and which will enable
the undertaking to at least break even.
Way
forward
One
factor which has to be accepted is that there can be no stereotyped
formula for the success of government corporations. It is evident that
some corporations can function on a profit basis whereas other must
necessarily concern themselves with providing services to the public,
whether the provision of such services can be done on a profitable
basis or not.
A
corporation, which has an objective of profitability, should be
incorporated under the Companies Act and some freedom from
bureaucratic control is necessary if such organisations are to be
commercially viable.
Appointments
to the board of directors and to the position of chief executive
should be on merit and on an assessment of the managerial skills of
the persons available. The board of directors should consist of
persons representing finance, marketing, technical functions and human
resources. The institution of working directors appears to be quite
irrelevant and unnecessary.
Proper
corporate planning is necessary and for such purpose it is necessary
to guarantee a flow of information from top to bottom and from bottom
upwards. The objectives of the organisation should be clearly spelt
out and these should be attainable objectives, which should be
reviewed from time to time, and the effectiveness of which should be
reviewed from time to time.
The
board of directors should have autonomy and should be unfettered in
the matter of making decisions especially in the area of selection of
personnel, investment, pricing and marketing, acquisition of materials
and the fixing of terms and conditions of employment.
Employees
in corporations do not have the stability and security that is
necessary to bring out the best in them. It would be necessary to have
proper induction of employees and also to have career development
programmes to encourage executives and even staff lower down, to
integrate themselves fully in their management environment.
The
creation of incentive schemes for workers to increase their
productivity, the formation of quality circles and suggestion schemes
to provide worker involvement may result in productivity gains.
Employees' councils, which were set up, did not have the desired
results due to trade union involvement.
It
is not suggested that trade unions are objectionable to all good
business practices, but the trade union structure in Sri Lanka is such
that their political objectives and affiliations to political parties
tend to remove the closeness and relationship within a workplace
between workers and their managers.
Reason
for success
In
fact, the development of that relationship is an important factor in
ensuring the success of the organisation. One reason for the success
of the Japanese is that trade unions are 'in house' and the primary
objective is the development of their own organisation and one hears
reference to a family feeling within an establishment.
Lastly,
in corporations that are expected to be profit making, if they are to
be formed into companies, it may also be advisable to alienate certain
shares to the public so that the ownership base would be larger and
there would be more persons concerned with the success of the
institution.
JKH
purchases 50.3% stake in MLL
John
Keells Holdings (JKH) acquired a 50.3% stake of Mercantile Leasing
Limited (MLL) on July 14 for a total consideration of Rs. 358,903,353.
JKH purchased this stake from local investor, M.M Udeshi, at a premium
price of Rs. 35 despite the market price of MLL trading around Rs. 30.
"Since
this is a long-term strategic investment, it is ok that JKH paid a
premium price for MLL shares," said Research Manager, HNB
Stockbrokers, Hasita Premaratne. The stake acquired of MML would
expand the JKH position within the financial sector despite JKH
holding stakes of Nations Trust Bank, Union Assurance and JKH
Stockbrokers.
"It's
the performance of MML that enabled JKH to strengthen its financial
service sector, to organise it business portfolio and enjoy better
synergies using the group financial strength," said Premaratne.
Group
Finance Director, JKH, Ronnie Peiris told The Sunday Leader the
objective of this purchase was to consolidate its presence in the
financial sector. He further added that JKH presence within MLL would
boost MLL's performance in the financial sector.
"Considering
our financial strength and market share, it would certainly benefit
MLL and its future operations," said Peiris.
According
to him, JKH would further expand its operations in the financial
sector on a selective basis. "If any company meets our financial
credibility and long-term strategic objectives, we would certainly
like to purchase stake in those companies," emphasised Peiris. He
further stated that shareholders' confidence in JKH has increased due
to decisions taken by the management for better performance of the
company.
JKH
records 1088% increase in profits
John
Keells Holdings (JKH) recorded a 1088% increase in net profits during
the three months to June 30, in the absence of a Rs. 687 million
Voluntary Retirement Scheme (VRS), compared to the corresponding
quarter of previous financial year. While recording significant growth
in almost all sectors, JKH maintained a 61% growth in profit before
tax and extra ordinary items, compared to the first quarter of the
financial year 2004 (FY2004).
Except
the financial services and plantations, all other six sectors recorded
a growth in the top line. The drop in financial sector revenue came as
no surprise, as overall financial sector performance has shown a
decline after an extraordinary year in 2003.
Meanwhile
JKH's divestment of Namunukula and Kegalle Plantations is the primary
reason for the 16% decline in plantation sector revenue to Rs. 768
million. The transportation sector continued to be the key revenue
generator, while posting a 27% growth in top line to Rs. 1.7 billion,
backed by strong contributions from South Asia Gateway Terminals (SAGT).
The
leisure sector continued its dramatic growth, supported by
consolidation of Asian Hotels & Properties Ltd. (AHPL). Despite
the decrease in tourist arrivals during the period under review
compared to the corresponding period of previous year, JKH hotels
managed to record growth backed by increased room rates.
Furthermore
city hotels and the Maldivian hotels continued to record steady
profits. We expect the leisure sector to record better growth during
the latter part of the financial year, as they are to benefit from the
upcoming tourist season. We believe that the transportation and
leisure sectors would remain as the main income drivers for the group
in the coming years.
The
food and beverages and information technology sectors recorded
improvement in turnover. During the year JKH disposed its holding in
RPK Management Services, the holding company of Kegalle Plantations
and Maskeliya Plantations. As a result we forecast a 50% dip in
plantation sector revenue to Rs. 1.89 billion during FY2005.
The
operating profit grew by 49% to Rs. 631 million, with an operating
margin of 12.2%, an improvement from 10% recorded during the
corresponding period of FY2003.
JKH's
operating margins improved from 10% to 16.5% during FY2004, after they
restructured their business portfolio based on the recommendations
made by a study conducted by the Boston Consultancy Group (BCG). We
expect the EBIT margins to improve to 17.4% during FY2005, with better
margins in the leisure sector the cost savings of VRS coming into
effect.
Meanwhile
the food and beverage sector remained a concern even though it
recorded a marginal operating profit of Rs. 57 million. Sector
operating profits were below our expectations, as a result of
increased excise duty and high input costs.
In
the wake of intense competition from Cargills Supermarkets and the
overall decline in the soft drinks market, we feel a strategic review
of this sector may help boost the earnings in the medium to long term.
As
expected by us transportation was the key contributor towards group
operating profit with Rs. 419 million, up by 48% from corresponding
period of FY2004. This represented almost 61% of group operating
profit, justifying our view that a bulk of future growth would be
represented by the transportation sector.
However,
we expect group's heavy dependence on the transportation sector, to be
ironed out once the leisure sector starts contributing strongly during
the tourist season, thus we project the leisure sector to represent
37% of the group operating profits during FY2005.
The
group finance cost declined by 20% to Rs. 74 million, as JKH repaid
some of its borrowings reducing it by 26% over the last 12 months. The
net profits jumped up by 1088% to Rs. 537 million, with a fully
diluted EPS of Rs. 6.52, based on the annualized earnings. Stock is
currently trading at 1.9x of its book value of Rs. 52.90.
We
project the net profits to grow by 40% to Rs. 2.7 billion during
FY2005, in the absence of a high VRS and full year consolidation of
AHOT. Based on increased capital structure the fully diluted EPS for
FY2005 is at Rs. 8.19, resulting in a PER of 13.2x. The forward
multiples are expected to decline to 12.1x based on an EPS of Rs. 8.95
during FY2006, making the stock attractive.
JKH
has taken positive steps to restructure its business portfolio after a
study conducted by the Boston Consultancy Group (BCG) and we believe
that the successful implementation of the suggestions would enable the
group to further exploit greater synergies, thereby improving
operating margins.
The
recent share issues have added more liquidity to the stock, increasing
the free float market capitalisation to Rs. 20.91 billion (US$ 209.8
million). Forward earnings multiples are expected to decline from
18.5x in FY2004 to 12.1x by FY2006.
Jayasundera
on Benchmark
In
a candid interview on Benchmark today, Treasury Secretary, Dr. P.B.
Jayasundera intimates that an efficient tax system can contribute to
the equitable redistribution of national wealth.
"Those
who can afford to pay taxes must pay taxes - not those who cannot
afford to do so," he says on the weekly half-hour business
programme presented by LMD.
Asserting
that "tax efforts must be consolidated if the country is to move
forward," the senior government official says on today's edition
of the programme, which is produced by The Wrap Factory, that
"every government, irrespective of political ideologies, must
make sure that the tax system becomes stronger."
The
economist further elucidates some of the "three to four main
reasons" for the widening gap between the 'haves' and the
'have-nots.' Jayasundera attributes the disparity, inter alia, to poor
transport facilities, "infrastructure not being broad-based"
and the current structure of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) -
which he avers has "bigger potential than the total stock-market
capitalisation... if given high priority" and undertaken on a
scale beyond the present focus of SMEs on micro-enterprises.
Benchmark
airs today on TNL at noon, with a repeat at 9.15 p.m.
Micro
finance - the future of banking
By
Marianne David
Sometimes
people think micro finance is a social banking aspect, where
concessions and low interest rates have to be given but the future
potential for banking is in this area, said Deputy General Manager
(Personal Banking), HNB, Chandula Abeywickrema speaking to The Sunday
Leader.
"Look
at the banking industry; commercial banks fill 80% of their income
from 20% of the customers and therefore they mainly concentrate on
those customers. It is only now they are venturing into the
outstations. However, in addition to our branch network of 140, we
also have 160 micro finance centres in villages around the
island," he said.
The
micro finance centres are named Gami Pubuduwa units. Gami Pubuduwa is
HNB's micro finance model - the most successful micro finance scheme
in Sri Lanka. Gami Pubuduwa was started 15 years ago and has a
recovery rate of over 95%.
"Among
all the banks, we have the best micro finance model and it was the
brainchild of our chairman, Rienzie Wijetilleke. So far we have
financed nearly 50,000 micro finance entrepreneurs and given over Rs.
3 million in the last 15 years," Abeywickrema said.
He
said that while remittance money helps the economy of the country, the
bank's focus was how its micro finance model could help the people who
send this money to start up a self-employment project or a business
once they return to Sri Lanka.
With
Gami Pubuduwa, HNB encourages remitters or those who receive the money
to save regularly so that a capital is accumulated, which can be used
to start a business.
"Most
of the developing countries are heavily dependent on migrant worker
remittances. In Sri Lanka, migrant worker remittance is the largest
foreign exchange earner and HNB is the second largest remittance
receiver here. The migrant worker population is two million, that is
10% of our population. Our main focus was how much of this remittance
money is going to a direct economic involvement."
Some
of the micro finance projects financed by HNB have now grown into big
companies and those who borrowed Rs. 5,000 then are presently
borrowing up to Rs. 1 or 2 million. Being a commercial bank, HNB also
has the opportunity to graduate those who are starting in a small way
into big entrepreneurs with its commercial banking facilities.
"As
a national bank we believe we have a responsibility to look after the
70% of the population who live in the rural areas. The migrant workers
and the rural economy are very important sectors that should be looked
after by the banking institutions," Abeywickrema explained.
With
Gami Pubuduwa, HNB does not stop at giving money to the people but
also guides them to run their businesses successfully.
"Those
who receive micro finance assistance are working with us continuously
until their business is stable. We tell them how to find markets, how
to do their financing and keep accounts, how to reduce costs, etc. Our
micro finance field officers are fully equipped to do all this,"
he said.
Abeywickrema
made Sri Lanka proud recently when he made a presentation on micro
finance and remittances from an Asian perspective, highlighting HNB's
micro finance model at the Remittances Micro Finance Technology Forum,
a two-day workshop organised by the Foundation for Development
Cooperation (FDC), an Australian based development institute together
with the University of Queensland's School of Economics.
The
purpose of the workshop was to increase understanding of the
importance of remittances as a source of financing for development,
explore the potential for information technology and micro finance to
enhance development impact, examine implications for policy and
regulation in the financial sector and identify areas for further
research.
Abeywickrema's
presentation, titled 'Remitting Money Into The Future - Going Beyond
Money Transfers,' focused on migrant worker remittance - a US$ 80
billion business - and how this money could be channeled for micro
finance, highlighting the situation in Sri Lanka.
Abeywickrema
was one of the two key speakers at the forum, which was attended by
around 80 people from different countries, including academics,
professionals and practitioners from large financial institutions.
"Sri
Lanka is mainly known for its conflict, people hardly know anything
about Sri Lanka. At the forum they were amazed that we had a bank in
Sri Lanka with the kind of micro finance model even they could use for
their micro finance, remittance and technology requirements,"
said Abeywickrema.
HNB
is a member of the Banking With The Poor (BWTP) network and
Abeywickrema is one of the executive committee members representing
HNB. Abeywickrema made his presentation at the Remittances Micro
Finance Technology Forum due to a request by directors of FDC, which
works closely with BWTP.
Dwellco
- personalised service for 15 years
Incorporated
in July 1989, Dwellco Pvt. Limited - an exclusive homebuilder in
providing designer homes - will celebrate its 15th anniversary this
month. Winning the trust of clients over the past 15 years in building
star class homes according to the clients' needs, Dwellco will expand
their market share in building individual homes for the benefit of its
clientele.
The
primary aim of the company is to provide quality and personalised
service to its customers and over the years, Dwellco has built many
exclusive homes in Colombo and the suburbs.
According
to Managing Director, Dwellco, Dharshan John, Dwellco was established
with a vision that would help realise a common dream of most urban
dwellers in the capital of Sri Lanka - to build homes according to
their plan and budget, on their own land.
"We
started this company with the primary objective of providing a
building service for busy professionals and executives. People were
getting busier and they did not have the time to build the home that
they have always dreamt of. Therefore, this leads to their in-laws and
relations building a house for them, which could result in problems
springing up between families," John said.
"We
focus on providing quality and personalised services to our clients.
No matter what economic problems the country has faced in the past, we
have always focused our attention on providing quality to our clients.
Having completed 15 years in personalised home building, we are proud
to have achieved a large and satisfied clientele," John added.
According
to him Dwellco caters to all segments of society as they build homes
according to what the client wants, on their land and according to
their budget.
"If
people give us a certain budget, we build homes accordingly.
Geographical locations are not a barrier as we have built many homes
in distant suburbs as well. We also have a very resourceful staff and
more than 60% of our staff have been working in the company for more
than five years," John said.
New
chairman at ITI
Senior
Professor in Chemistry and Dean, Faculty of Science, University of
Peradeniya, Prof. Vijaya Kumar has been appointed chairman, governing
board, Industrial Technology Institute (ITI) by the Science and
Technology Minister with effect from July 5.
ITI
functions within the purview of the Science and Technology Ministry
and maintains its role as the leading interdisciplinary research
institute in Sri Lanka. The institution has a strong commitment
towards the provision and dissemination of scientific and technical
information through a well established Library and Information
Services Center.
Prof.
Kumar was educated at the University of Ceylon and at Magdalen
College, University of Oxford where he worked for his PhD. He is a
Fellow of the National Academy of Sciences and a recipient of
presidential awards for scientific achievement. He is a member of the
task force on science, technology and innovation of the United Nations
Millennium Project commissioned by the United Nations Secretary
General.
Prof.
Kumar is also the Sri Lankan representative on the UN Commission on
Science and Technology for Development (UNCSTD) and was chairperson of
the commission during 2001-2003 and vice-chairperson during 2003-2004.
He is a member of the board of management of the Postgraduate
Institute of Science and formerly of the National Science Foundation,
the Council for Information technology and chairman of its committee
on computer education. He has worked in universities and research
institutes in Canada,
Sweden, Germany, Thailand and India and has over 175 research
publications and communications to his credit.
Prof.
Kumar's wide array of professional experience in both the scientific
and technological arena as well as the recognition he has received
nationally, regionally and internationally will contribute immensely
towards guiding and positioning the ITI to meet the challenges of the
future that is characterised by a complex mixture of many demands.
Union
Assurance rewards safe drivers
With
the number of road accidents increasing daily, going against the tide
in the insurance industry in order to promote safe driving and reduce
the number of accidents, Union Assurance is offering an innovative,
flexible policy that promotes safe driving through rewarding safe
drivers - Union Motor Star.
Union
Motor Star is designed to promote good driving habits, inculcate road
safety and provide convenient, hassle free service to policyholders.
Going
further in its effort to make the roads a safer place, Union Assurance
has now organised a road show, the purpose of which is to create
public awareness, promote safe driving and reward safe drivers.
"The
road show will be held at three service stations a day where safe
drivers will be identified and rewarded, with around 1,000 people
being rewarded each day. Signs of good driving we will be looking for
are the wearing of seat belts, use of hands free kits with mobile
phones, following the traffic rules, etc.," said Sales Manager
(Group Life), Dharshini Kurukulasuriya, the organiser of the show.
The
road show will be held on July 17, 18, 24 and 25 at service stations
in Nugegoda, Nawala, Parliament Grounds Kohuwala, Wellawatta and
Dehiwala and Union Assurance will be at each location for two hours at
a time.
With
motor being the largest class of insurance, in the recent past a large
number of motor products have entered the market. Since of late,
however, there has been a lot of interest to develop the motor
insurance business and recent trends in the industry have shown a
growth in motor insurance, which has helped build the market share in
most insurance companies, said General Manager (Marketing), Union
Assurance Limited, Ramal Jasinghe.
However,
he said that most of the products follow a similar platform and while
service levels and demands of motorists have improved, there is a lot
imitation in the market.
Explaining
the rationale behind developing a product that is completely different
to other motor insurance products on offer, Jasinghe said, "Union
Motor Star actually started on the drawing board as something very
revolutionary, where rather than encouraging people to have accidents
and serve them, we thought we'd promote safe driving. With Union Motor
Star, we underwrite the safety of the driver rather than the
vehicle."
With
Union Motor Star, when you have an accident free year, you are
entitled to a no claim bonus, which encourages the concept of safe
driving.
According
to Manager (Motor Insurance), Union Assurance Limited, Ravi
Sumithraarachchi, in the last year there were 59,444 road accidents
recorded in this country. "When you analyse the reasons for these
accidents, there are many reasons, but the majority revolve around the
unprecedented increase in the vehicle population," he said.
Billions
of insurance claims have been paid against these damages in the past
and the industry is starting to suffer due to the increasing number of
accidents.
There
are 2.2 million registered vehicles in Sri Lanka and a road network of
125,000 km. The main cause for the increase in road accidents is the
huge increase in the number of vehicles while other causes are the
improper maintenance of roads, improper maintenance of vehicles,
negligent driving or speeding and the negligence of the road users, in
that order, he explained
"Sooner
or later someone has to take a positive step to reduce these
accidents. There are many authorities that could contribute towards
reducing accidents and they should all act together with one goal. In
the past, little attention was paid to this vital aspect and though it
was discussed at length, no company took action regarding this
problem," Sumithraarachchi said.
"We,
as an insurance company, do things in a different way. When you say
insurance, people think insurance is there to look after you in the
event of an accident. That is correct. But on the other hand, it is
the duty of insurance companies to look after people who are not
having accidents."
Union
Assurance is the first insurance company to look into this aspect and
considers it a social responsibility to encourage people not to have
accidents - resulting in the development of Union Motor Star.
According
to Sumithraarachchi, in a global context, this is not a new thing and
safe driving is encouraged. "We have brought this concept to Sri
Lanka with Union Motor Star, which benefits safe drivers and a very
important benefit is the reduction in the insurance premium. We look
at the driver's attributes and insure a car, which falls in line with
the global philosophy of motor insurance," he said.
Customers
of Union Assurance qualify for the many benefits on offer in the
policy and Union Motor Star rewards safe drivers with a no claims
bonus at a higher percentage than the market. There are, however,
situations where even a safe driver could meet with an accident, an
eventuality that is covered by Union Motor Star.
Any
customer with a 15% no claim bonus, namely a motorist who has held a
motor policy for just one year, is eligible to qualify for
on-the-scene assessment and approval of up to 75% of the claim,
without obtaining a police report, subject to there being no third
party liability.
This
on-the-scene assessment service is initially introduced within the
Colombo and Greater Colombo areas, where UAL's motor assessors would
be on the scene of an accident within 30 minutes of the reporting of
the accident to the Union Assurance call centre on the 24 hour hotline
2428444. Customers out of Colombo are provided with a round-the-clock
assessment facility. Customers are also given the choice of opting for
a settlement through the usual claims processing channels if they are
not in agreement with the cash in lieu offer.
With
the introduction of Union Motor Star, Union Assurance seems to have
started a trend in motor insurance in Sri Lanka.
"Now
one of our competitors has an ad campaign promoting safe driving,
proving that we have started a trend and raised consciousness about
this very important matter. Accidents statistics are quite high and if
more people take on the cause of safe driving, the roads will be
safer. Union Assurance is definitely proud to have started it all off
and spearheaded a new trend of awareness," said Jasinghe with
pride.
The
product has caught on in the market, been very successful and given
the correct signals to the public at large, he added.
Speaking
about the success of Union Motor Star, Jasinghe said that a person in
the motor industry recently described it as an "out-of-the-box
product," which Jasinghe adds, "says it all."
-
Marianne David
Discussion
on Indo-Lanka FTA
The
Indo-Lanka Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is to be discussed at a seminar
organised by the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce (CCC) to enhance the
knowledge of the Sri Lankan business community about the issues
relating to the agreement.
The
businessmen are expected to benefit through this seminar which is to
be conducted on July 23, from 8:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. at the ground floor
auditorium of the CCC.
In
addition to the FTA with India, the seminar will also discuss the
recently released economic policy framework of the government of Sri
Lanka, while two Indian experts will present a review of the 2005
Indian budget.
Sri
Lanka and India have a long history in trading. In December 1998, the
Sri Lankan President and Indian Prime Minister signed the Indo-Lanka
Free Trade Agreement (FTA), which has been fully operational since
March 2000. Treasury Secretary, Dr. P.B. Jayasundera will deliver the
keynote address on the economic policy framework of the government of
Sri Lanka.
Director
General (Commerce), K.J. Weerasinghe is expected to speak on the topic
'Indo Lanka Free Trade Agreement - The Way Forward.' The two Indian
experts, Chief Economist / Head (Research and Information Group),
CRISIL India, Dr. Subir Gokam and CEO, CRIS India, G. Ravishankar are
due to address the topic 'India: Economic and Business Outlook 2004.'
The concluding address will be made by Sting Consultants on 'Passage
to India.'
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