President Chandrika Kumaratunga and JVP General Secretary, Tilvin Silva

By Dilrukshi Handunnetti 

The provincial polls that concluded had ironically left all political parties with little to crow about, but much to fret. The redeeming factor being the low level of violence experienced, the July 10 contest also recorded low levels of voter turn out -a fact demonstrative of voter fatigue.

Three months after assuming office, it is not always that a government in ascendancy lost its popular support base so swiftly. In the case of the United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) that swept into office on April 2, the change has come with lightening speed and excepting one district- Nuwara Eliya- ironically the only district the defeated United National Party (UNP) managed to secure at the provincial hustings, - the alliance has lost ground.

It would appear strange that a brand new government instead of receiving a political endorsement has suffered an erosion of base. While the Freedom Alliance has returned a considerable number of members to councils, their popularity at district level has dwindled.

A closer look

A week ago, 316 members were elected to six provincial councils out of 4,134 candidates from15 districts representing 23 political parties and 35 independent groups. Some 9,581,331 were declared eligible voters. But the country recorded its lowest voter turn out since independence, something the first provincial poll held in 1988 did not suffer despite being held during a JVP instigated reign of terror.

The UPFA's overall victory apart, when placed under the microscope, there is a decline in the district level popularity. The UNP has performed no better and for the first time, failed to secure a single provincial council. Its only success story remains winning the Nuwara Eliya District largely owing to the Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC) vote bank.

However, a series of defeats is expected of a newly defeated, politically demoralised party like the UNP.

But for a government that rode to office on the aspirations of the people in April, it only goes to prove that it has failed to capture the imagination of the people. For example, at the 2001 general elections, the PA polled 353,401 votes (33.39%) in the Colombo District and the JVP, 117,404 votes (11.09%) together polling 470,805 votes. In 2004 July, three months after coming into office, the UPFA, which is the combined force, has culled only 322,653(49.11%) of the district's total vote.

It also has to be borne in mind that only some 47% voted in the Colombo District out of which only 43% were declared as valid votes. There was a high prevalence of rejected votes.

A popular cold-shoulder

A scrutiny of the election results of both the general and provincial elections - held within the space of three months is proof enough that the alliance's campaign to strengthen the April mandate has been cold-shouldered by the populace.

Gampaha, a district dominated by the Bandaranaikes polled 509963 votes in April but suffered a decrease of 117082 votes within three months. At the PC polls, the UPFA only polled 392881.

In Anuradhapura, the UPFA polled 212943 in April which has plummeted to 187997 in July. Polonnaruwa was no different with the April vote of 106243 reducing to 91067- a story recorded in all districts barring Nuwara Eliya where the UPFA has recorded a marginal increase. (See box 6)

Similarly, strongholds like Matara and Hambantota too show a sharp decline in popular support. The drop in the Galle District is a stunning 68100, in Matara 59159 and in Hambantota, 37612- all in all, not a convincing picture.

UNP no better

The UNP too has had to drink the bitter gall of defeat in areas hitherto identified as bastions. The party only secured Nuwara Eliya and lost the three provinces the party is comfortable with- Western, Central and Uva in a humiliating poll defeat.

In contrast, it is only the JVP that has made further inroads, not only into mainstream politics but also in capturing the SLFP's political base. If both the 2004 general election and 2004 provincial polls created a winner, it is the Marxist party which has 39 parliamentarians and now, 71 provincial council members.

The JVP which incidentally led an anti-PC campaign in 1988 and killed the first few voters at polling booths were ironically the ones urging voters to accord the UPFA a second mandate and urging to refrain from boycotting the poll.

The JVP has not made any bones about using the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) as a vehicle to get where it wants to be- the second largest political party in the country and its strategic campaigning and selection of candidates has paid off with 71out of 73 candidates being elected.

Erosion of SLFP base

As for the SLFP, still the largest constituent party in the UPFA combine, it is a reversal of positions with the traditional base being quickly eroded by the Marxists.

A " whopping mandate" as the euphoric government described it, does not provide the SLFP reasons to be happy. Out of 189 UPFA members, the PA members are only 115 with the JVP having secured 71, the Communist Party two seats and the MEP one.

But, not even the JVP can boast about its call being heard this time. While the people have kept faith with the revolutionary party and largely voted for the JVP candidates, it does not appear to extend to the UPFA per se- a fact demonstrated by the low voter turn out with even the head of state opting not to cast her vote.

UNP's dismal performance

Given the fact that the party has been just voted out of power, its own style of campaign did lead to the forgone conclusion that the UNP would not survive the provincial hustings.

The UNP's slumbering did make it somewhat of a cakewalk for others. Nevertheless, it is natural for a recently beaten government to lose base. But the country's single largest political party's defeat is so great that for the first time, it controls not a single provincial body.

It has also lost its traditional strongholds in Uva, Central and Western Provinces and managed only to win the Nuwara Eliya District where the CWC enjoys considerable support.

As UNP's Dr. Rajitha Senaratne said, while the party should really get its act together, a provincial poll is not a life and death matter. Once a government has been elected, anti- incumbency feelings would not arise within months. "Interest is immense when voters know they can elect a government, make a change. This is just to continue the status quo," he explains.

While the UNP apologists try to explain why they were completely unimaginative during the election, the UPFA's propagandists are busy interpreting the popular verdict as an endorsement of the policies and programmes of the administration. District results are proof enough that there is no enhanced mandate but in fact a reduction. 

Quick disillusionment

What merits probing is how a party could lose its support base so swiftly. At the 2001 general election, the PA was left to scrape the barrel electorally. It secured three seats in Moneragala as opposed to the UNP's two-by a slim majority of 1,256 votes. The other singular success came from Digamadulla where the PA won two seats and pushed the UNP with a single seat to the third slot.

But the UNP's performance during the 2002 local polls proves that not every government becomes instantly unpopular or suffers loss of electoral bases.

The results according to SLFP sources are causing concern among those who initially opposed an alliance between the PA and the JVP. It is being admitted that the results demand some quick fixes if the mandate is to be maintained. The SLFP also knows that this government would come to an end the day the JVP decides to pull out.

Failure by the party in ascendancy to hold the imagination of the people has irked some of those who opposed the PA-JVP union. There is growing uncertainty and fear following the suicide attack in Kollupitiya on the day campaigns closed, added to which is the economic instability that the UPFA regime tries its best to conceal.

"We sought a second mandate to push for electoral reforms as pledged and we have received it," says Vice President, UPFA, Susil Premajayanth. He attributes the low turnout of voters to the weather and the election not being as decisive as a general poll.

" What rubbish, they have lost what they had," scoffs UNP's Dr. Rajitha Senaratne who believes that the poll result is a stark demonstration of people losing faith in all parties.

 "People have not responded to the UPFA's call at all. In contrast, when the UNP was elected into office in 2001, it certainly held its base and increased its mandate at the local government election that followed," he adds.

System overhaul?

At the last PC election, the UPFA secured 123 constituencies whereas the UNP secured a mere 13 electorates. At the general election this April, the UNP secured 33 electorates despite losing government. The provincial poll was not held in the northeast that accounts for 24 electorates.

Analysing the election result, Spokesman, Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU), Ven. Athuraliye Rathana Thero adds that the results indicate the loss of faith in the system.

"We stand for the abolition of the PC system and therefore did not field candidates. The results prove that the people have rejected the poll. After all, there is a PC for the northeast for which purpose the system was introduced. We should do away with this white elephant which is only a burden on the exchequer," says the Thero who proposes a constitutional amendment to scrap the system that has largely failed to deliver.

According to Election Commission sources, the July 10 contest recorded the second lowest voter turn out in post independence history, the previous occasion being in 1988.

Yet, this election also found the JVP very active during this period. They were in the forefront urging people to vote. Yet their hearts are not with the system.

Marxists' triumph

A politburo member of the JVP told The Sunday Leader that despite the party's success, that they wished to distance themselves from a system that has failed to deliver.

"We will not accept portfolios but would work hard to achieve public goals. People have given us the government and the provinces both to the UPFA. We respect that. It is largely an endorsement of the JVP's political approach," the source explained.

Despite being active partners in the alliance, the JVP refrained from accepting portfolios in Wayamba and have now elected 71 out of 73 candidates.  Only I.S.U. Moulana from Matara and Sisira Senadheera from Kandy were defeated. The JVP candidates have also emerged first in Colombo, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts as well.

While the JVP has recorded party level success, it cannot be construed that those who did vote for the UPFA voted in favour of the abolition of the executive presidency, setting up of a constituent assembly and a vote for the rejection of the UNP's peace process. The erosion does prove that their political methodology is not largely supported by a population that expected much from a government that pledged to remain people-friendly.

What both the PA and the JVP, busy remarketing the marginal provincial success as an endorsement of their politics and programmes, fail to consider is that the voting is a placid acceptance of the status quo than an active pro vote for them. The UNP, having swept the boards in a convincing local authorities poll in 2002 - could have interpreted it as a two third majority.

At that poll, the PA dismally failed and secured only the Ayagama Pradeshiya Sabha, the Ratnapura Municipal Council, Haputale Urban Council and the Moneragala Pradeshiya Sabha - by a mere 1256 votes while the JVP won its first local body - the Tissamaharama Pradeshiya Sabha. The UNP then secured 110 out of 163 constituencies and 17 out of 22 districts. 

Voter apathy

While statistics are being interpreted and re-interpreted in a bid to read the public feeling, most feel that the statistics reflect some deeply rooted problems of our political fabric. 

Among the key reasons for the low turnout or the lack of political expression is the half-baked devolution introduced to the country, according to the Social Scientists' Association.  Also, the recent violence in parliament, fielding of defeated candidates at the recent parliamentary elections, too many polls in quick succession, lack of interest as well as understanding of the provincial council system were some of the listed reasons for the voter fatigue. In certain areas, the downpour detained voters while many did not wish to leave homes merely to vote on a non-working Saturday, the survey revealed. But the trend for a brand new government does not auger well. It is too soon to have faith eroded and having come into power only with 45.6% percent of the entire vote and 106 out of 163 constituencies, the UPFA must consider that the majority that forms 54.4% of the population are collectively opposed to the government. That requires a government not so secure to do a quick step and a fox trot to get into the proper mode before people decide to refrain from exercising their franchise altogether as political parties collectively lose their credibility, which eventually result in the loss of their political bases.

Back to the headline