Politics

Playing politics with peace

By Suranimala  With the constituent partners in government unable to arrive at a consensus on the basis for resuming the peace process, a tactical decision was reached last week to throw the ball into the opposition court while the LTTE breathed fire the process faced imminent collapse. Having taken the moral high ground on the LTTE's interim administration proposals while in opposition, the UPFA were now finding it difficult due to internal policy contradictions to agree for the resumption of talks on the very basis of the ISGA and it is to find a way out of this quagmire that the party leaders constituting the alliance met last week where little success was achieved.

Wimal Weerawansa, S. P. Tamilselvan, Mahinda Rajapakse and Chandrika Kumaratunga

Moral high ground

The UPFA hoped the provincial poll results would give them the moral high ground of claiming a fresh mandate to push forward with its agenda notwithstanding their minority status in parliament but with less than 50 percent of the people using their ballot and a drastic drop in their vote bank, those plans were dashed, even as the LTTE breathed fire in the backdrop of a worsening security situation in the east.

Still in the honeymoon period of the new government, the President and her alliance partners were however able to hold the dam despite escalating prices and a stalled peace process and emerge victorious at the provincial polls but with the election now over, the reality of governance has come into play with the priority issues of the economy and the peace process on the table to be dealt with.

In fact the government faces the prospect of combatting escalating prices, controlling the galloping dollar, resuming the peace process and keeping the ceasefire alive whilst also preparing a budget without cutting down on defence expenditure given the tense security situation in the country.

To make matters worse, just a week after a suicide bomber exploded herself inside the Colpetty police station, there have been fresh reports following a recent arrest that a suicide bomber was stalking the President, reports no doubt which will only add to the heightened sense of insecurity for prospective investors and tourists.

This developing scenario of a tit-for-tat response to the government's support for LTTE rebel Karuna has caused a severe strain on the ceasefire agreement no less and if this trend continues, it is a matter of time before open hostilities resume.

The only way to break this vicious cycle is by resuming peace talks and in order to get that show on the road, the government will not only have to deliver Karuna but also agree for the resumption of talks based on the ISGA.

At the same time, President Kumaratunga is also fighting against time to have the executive presidency abolished through the mechanism of a constituent assembly albeit with little success for want of a parliamentary majority and this she cannot hope to achieve at least without getting the peace process back on track and with it, minority support.

Catch 22

But of course to get the backing of the minority parties, Kumaratunga has to agree for the resumption of talks on the ISGA proposals of the LTTE which the JVP is vehemently opposed to as underscored in last week's poster blitzkrieg - a catch 22 if ever there was one.

Faced with this dilemma, the President decided to discuss the issue of the ISGA proposals with the constituent partners of the UPFA having already caused a stir by issuing a statement soon after the provincial elections that the people had given a mandate to negotiate the ISGA, which earned an instant rebuke from the JVP.

It is in this tense atmosphere, the party leaders meeting with the President got underway on Tuesday, July 13, and among those present were Premier Mahinda Rajapakse, Minister Maithripala Sirisena, Susil Premjayanth, Douglas Devananda, Dinesh Gunawardena, Ferial Ashraff, D.E.W. Gunasekera and JVPers Wimal Weerawansa and Tilvin Silva. Head, Peace Secretariat, Jayantha Dhanapala was also in attendance.

At the outset, President Kumaratunga said the government must get the peace process started to ensure stability in the country and it should be done on the basis of the interim administration proposals as requested by the LTTE.

The President said the LTTE had indicated it was ready to resume talks if the basis is the ISGA and it was now upto the government to take a decision on it.

Continuing, the President, fully realising the JVP position on it, said in negotiating the ISGA under no circumstances will the government betray the country or give all that is demanded but whittle it down to satisfy the south as well.

Having listened to the President, JVP's Tilvin Silva said his party was opposed to resuming negotiations based on the ISGA and that the UPFA should go by the position outlined in the Rata Perata manifesto. Silva further said if talks are to resume, negotiations for a final solution must also be included in the agenda.

It was however Wimal Weerawansa who was most forceful in his argument against the ISGA forming the basis for resuming talks, stating it will be a betrayal of the electorate and the country and their respective parties.

He said while the JVP issued a statement opposing the LTTE's interim administration proposals, even they did not go so far as the SLFP's opposition to it, which was reflected in a statement issued by the party criticising clause by clause, claiming it was the basis for a separate state.

JVP stance

Taken aback at the force with which Weerawansa argued his case, the President asked whether the JVP was opposed to peace talks with the LTTE per se to which the reply came from Tilvin Silva.

Said he: "No, not to peace talks but the interim administration proposals."

Silva went on to say he read reports that the President had at a meeting with the TNA MPs agreed to resume negotiations based on the ISGA, which reports he said they did not believe.

Painting Kumaratunga into a corner Silva said, "We did not believe those reports because there was a collective decision by us with which the President agreed that any talks on the ISGA will be subject to negotiations for a final solution in addition to two other clauses. We heard it was communicated to the LTTE through the Norwegians as well."

The President did not disagree, stating she never told the TNA talks will be based only on the interim administration proposals. Said she - "No, I never said it. My position has not changed. Talks on the ISGA is subject to negotiations on a final solution also being included in the agenda. There is no change in my position on that."

Came back Weerawansa - "Then what is this statement issued by the Presidential Secretariat claiming the provincial council election result was a mandate to negotiate the ISGA?"

Once again the President retreated stating it was all the work of the pro UNP private media. She said though there was an innocuous line to that effect in the statement, it was the private media that had given it a hype.

"I put it just for the record. It is the pro UNP private media that has taken the last part and put it on top. The state media was very good. They did not do that," Kumaratunga said.

At this point, Premier Rajapakse who is bracing himself to run for the executive presidency as the alliance joint candidate next year said it was important for the UPFA to market effectively whatever decision is taken to ensure the southern base is not lost.

Added he - "Like Wimal said, the SLFP has taken a position on the interim administration proposals clause by clause. We have created public opinion against the ISGA. Then if we are to change our stand, it must be marketed properly. We cannot do it automatically. I do not know whether the mandate received was for the ISGA or the other proposals in the Rata Perata. A separate survey has to be done on that."

Likewise Constitutional Affairs Minister, D.E.W. Gunasekera explained the position of the Communist Party (CP) stating it was not opposed to negotiating the interim administration proposals but said it would be prudent to have a final solution also on the agenda.

The way out

But with the preponderance of opinion being against negotiating only on the ISGA, Weerawansa struck again, this time offering a way out for the government.

It was not a case of looking towards addressing the issue with sincerity but how to wriggle out of a difficult situation by roping in the opposition.

Thus, Weerawansa suggested, rather than the UPFA bell the cat, since the proposal itself emanated from a UNF-LTTE dialogue, the Opposition Leader, Ranil Wickremesinghe should be invited to discuss the agenda.

Added he - "Call Ranil and ask him what he thinks should be included in the agenda. Then call all the other parties too and expose all their stands. That way the government does not have to take the responsibility for the outcome."

Supporting Weerawansa in this game of politics was Premier Rajapakse who realises only too well if he gets the JVP on board, there is more than an even chance at winning the presidency.

Said Rajapakse - "That is a very good idea. If all the parties in the south arrive at a consensus on the issue, it will put the LTTE under pressure to accept it. Therefore, let's look for a southern consensus."

Interestingly, Rajapakse's position was the same as that articulated by outgoing Indian High Commissioner, Nirupam Sen and the President readily accepted the proposal stating she will first invite Wickremesinghe for a chat followed by the other parties.

The question however was posed what should be done if the UNP Leader declines to meet, but the President confidently said he would never decline an offer to meet with her.

Not short of bright ideas, Weerawansa then went on to propose that all parties should be made party to the process and preferably invite a UNP nominee to be represented at the talks, thereby cutting off any advantage that may accrue to the UNP in the event the talks fail.

Finally it was agreed that the President will invite the UNP Leader for a meeting within days to discuss the agenda followed by the other parties and then form an advisory committee to steer the peace process.

The President said she would initially chair the advisory committee meeting followed by Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse and Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe jointly chairing the meetings.

The objective of the committee according to the decision taken by the UPFA leadership was to get all parties represented in parliament to jointly draft the agenda and present it to the LTTE thereby absolving the UPFA of having to decide on commencing negotiations based on the ISGA.

Given the fact that the JHU will never agree to the proposal and the TNA on the other wanting talks to resume only on the basis of the ISGA, the government knew only too well the whole exercise is one of futility but believed it could then apportion blame for the failure of the peace process rather than be held solely liable.

Changing the constitution

For the President it was a particularly bad meeting in failing to carry the alliance partners with her since it also derailed her strategy of getting the constitution amended as a priority with the 2005 deadline for the presidential election fast approaching.

In fact, just prior to the meeting with the party leaders, she met with her constitutional law advisory committee comprising President's Counsels, H.L. De Silva, Jayampathy Wickramaratne, Wijedasa Rajapakse, Nigel Hatch and senior attorney, R.K.W. Goonesekere where it was clearly stated by De Silva any move to change the constitution should be in terms of the existing provisions and not via a constituent assembly. Though Hatch was of a different mindset, De Silva held firm.

De Silva, a highly respected and one of the foremost constitutional law experts produced by the country, not subscribing to the constituent assembly mechanism of changing the constitution itself was a severe blow to the government's plans and the President in a moment of exasperation had later said, if it cannot be done, to forget it.

The UPFA tactical manoeuvres were of course not relevant to the LTTE which worked to a fixed agenda and the very Tuesday informed Norwegian Ambassador Hans Brattskar, the peace process was in severe crisis and facing imminent collapse.

LTTE's Political Wing Leader, S.P. Tamilselvan informed Brattskar no less a person than a cabinet minister of the UPFA government was openly consorting with Karuna, thereby proving beyond doubt the destabilisation role played by it.

He had also said the manner in which Karuna is used to attack the LTTE by the government and the armed forces is threatening the peace and their patience was fast running out.

Brattskar's attention was also drawn to the provisions in the ceasefire agreement which specifically dealt with disarming paramilitary groups and moving them out of the north east, which provision LTTE's Political Wing Leader said the government was in breach of.

Undermining the ceasefire

It is, he said, the government that is undermining the ceasefire agreement by arming and deploying Karuna against the LTTE and until such time that issue is addressed to the organisation's satisfaction, there can be no talks with the Kumaratunga government.

Tamilselvan also denied any LTTE involvement in the suicide bomb attack in Colpetty, thereby adopting the same denial mode of the government with respect to the Karuna issue.

Be that as it may, the UPFA's strategy to bait the other parties for a commitment on the peace agenda came unstuck no sooner it was mooted with Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe indicating to his party's political affairs committee Thursday there was no necessity for him to meet with the President for a discussion on the issue.

Wickremesinghe had said the government must first clarify what its position is with regard to the resumption of talks and the ISGA before soliciting the opposition's views.

"The government is unable to come to a consensus among themselves and want to play games with the peace process and I will not be a party to it," he had said.

Rather than meet with the President, what Wickremesinghe prepared was an agenda for political war with the UPFA with parliament set to meet on July 20.

In fact, Thursday morning, Wickremesinghe met with MPs Karu Jayasuriya, G.L. Peiris, Mahinda Samarasinghe (UNP), Rauf Hakeem (SLMC), V. Puthrasigamany, M.S. Sellasamy (CWC), A. Radhakrishnan (UPF), Ven. Athuraliye Rathana Thero (JHU) and a member of the TNA and decided to move a breach of privilege against JVP MP, Wimal Weerawansa for calling on Speaker, W.J.M. Lokubandara to resign on the ground that he no longer has a mandate.

At the same time, another privilege motion is to be filed on the attempted arrest of UNP MP, Ravi Karunanayake based on a false claim there was a court warrant.

The UNP leader also chaired a meeting of the joint opposition constituting a majority in the House and civic society where notice was given of their intention to introduce legislation to control the rampaging state media by providing for key appointments through the Constitutional Council.

Legislation for key appointments

It is the intention of the opposition to move this legislation as a priority, forcing the government thereby to support it or face defeat on the floor of the House. The government of course would seek to resist the move by refusing to entertain it in the parliamentary agenda, in which event swift action would be taken to move a no confidence motion against either the government or the media minister.

In the midst of this gung ho approach of the joint opposition buoyed by information the CWC for the foreseeable future will not join the government, the political affairs committee chaired by Ranil Wickremesinghe decided on Thursday to appoint former cabinet secretary, Weragoda as the new party secretary.

That 69-year-old Weragoda was an outstanding public servant there is no doubt but whether he is up to the challenge of playing the role of an effective general secretary in these turbulent times is another matter and news of his appointment has been received with utter dismay by the young turks in the party.

And the appointment of another committee headed by 82-year-old former chairman, N.G.P. Panditharatne to submit a report within three months on the problems faced by the party at grassroot level and how to revamp it has only added to their scepticism whether the party can indeed face the challenges ahead with a Dad's Army.

Such disappointments were however not exclusive to the UNP alone with President Kumaratunga vetoing a visit by Commerce Minister Jeyaraj Fernandopulle to India. Fernandopulle together with Agriculture Minister Anura Dissanayake were to visit India on July 15 but when Fernandopulle's letter for approval went to Kumaratunga, she decided to veto it.

The President did not just veto the visit but inquired from the Minister the purpose of his visit, to which Fernandopulle replied he wants to explore the possibility of wheat flour and milk imports.

He also told the President given the dispute with Prima, he expected them to become difficult over time and it was therefore prudent to make alternate arrangements.

"In such a situation, there maybe a shortage of flour and I have already announced we are considering imports from India," he had said.

But the President would have none of it and told the Minister he should not get involved in the flour issue since she is handling it personally, details of which will of course soon out, in the context of the dispute between Prima and Serendib.

Fernandopulle had later told confidants he believed President's Adviser, Harry Jayewardena may have blocked his visit but not to be tied down, complained to the Prime Minister, who promptly got activated.

Internal politicking

With Prime Minister Rajapakse due to leave on an official visit to India on Saturday, July 17, he sent his delegation for President's approval with Fernandopulle's name included. Kumaratunga could not reject the name for a second time without snubbing both the Premier and Fernandopulle and gave her approval.

This internal politicking aside, it is the peace process that will make or break Sri Lanka and given the present trends, there is no hope for optimism.