Politics

Politics of 'Operation Relief'

Inside Politics

By Suranimala   

The devastating tsunami not only visited death and destruction on a massive scale in Sri Lanka, but left in its wake an entirely new political landscape......

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> Now, to face the economic tsunami

Politics of 'Operation Relief'

Ranil Wickremesinghe, Chandrika Kumaratunga and  Mahinda Rajapakse

Inside Politics By Suranimala    The devastating tsunami not only visited death and destruction on a massive scale in Sri Lanka, but left in its wake an entirely new political landscape. For Sri Lanka and her leaders, it was going to be a testing time with a mammoth task at hand to rebuild a shattered country where at least nine of the 22 electoral districts were severely affected and a people left traumatised. Needless to say, apart from the tragic loss of life, the economic consequences of the tragedy are going to be mind-boggling.

Death toll

That the death toll was expected to top 30,000 and nearly two million people rendered homeless in a country of 20 million alone was a pointer to how serious a problem the country has to grapple with in the months and years to come and one which calls for a united effort by all her elected leaders and civic society.

No doubt, international aid will flow into the country to provide relief and for the rehabilitation efforts of the country but the brunt of it will have to be eventually borne by Sri Lanka as underscored by the statement of US Secretary of State, Colin Powell.

In a country already struggling for economic survival and a government that introduced a short-term budget with the aim of going for a snap referendum on constitutional reform, recovering from this disaster is, needless to say, going to be a long and painful exercise.

The budget estimates will naturally go haywire and the cost of living will start soaring as the people in the weeks to come start settling to their daily routines, trying to keep the wolf from the door as the full impact of the disaster starts filtering to the masses as a whole.

Entire districts have lost their livelihoods with little prospect of rebuilding their shattered lives in the short term and though the relief efforts will eventually result in shelter for the affected people, the challenge of finding employment is going to be much more daunting and that is the challenge the government will have to meet, and one that donors cannot provide.

Mind you, at the time the tsunami hit Sri Lanka, she was slowly but gradually being turned into an international pariah state due to the internal contradictions within government ranks, particularly in relation to the peace process that had also put in jeopardy the US$ 4.5 billion pledged by the donor community. The joint statement issued by three of the four co chairs, US, EU and Japan just weeks before December 26 was indicative of this unfolding development.

Further, even the aid for identified projects were stalled due to a lack of clarity on the government's economic policy, once gain due to policy differences between the SLFP and JVP.

A blessing in disguise

In that context, in a bizarre sense, the tsunami has come as a blessing in disguise for the country with international focus once again riveted on her and it remains to be seen whether this opportunity is going to be seized and turned into a new beginning for the country or once again sacrificed at the altar of political expediency and personal agendas.

Given this scenario, the focus would primarily be on President Chandrika Kumaratunga, of whom the nation would naturally expect enlightened leadership casting aside her natural tendency to be combative with anyone opposed to her thinking.

The initial response of the President, however, sadly did not leave much room for optimism. Politics, it seemed, was taking precedence over national interest and by Friday the opposition was crying foul their members were being moved out of the rehabilitation committees at electoral level.

For President Kumaratunga, the tsunami is as much a disaster for the country as it is for her personal political fortunes given the entire focus pre-December 26 being the abolition of the executive presidency.

Now, with a massive relief and rehabilitation task at hand, it would be unthinkable for the government to even consider giving priority to any constitutional reforms or a referendum until such time the rehabilitation and reconstruction work is completed. The international community would be the first to turn its back on Sri Lanka, in a situation where a government gives priority to personal political agendas as opposed to national reconstruction.

This frustration was already evident with a massive amount of funds for rehabilitation being channelled not through the government, but NGOs like Red Cross.

It is in that sense the tsunami will also be a personal loss of the President since the failure to abolish the executive presidency by at least April would naturally necessitate the SLFP having to project a candidate for the presidency, making Kumaratunga political history. Assuming of course the election will be in 2005, and not in 2006 as per the secret oath taking ceremony dates.

After all, could the country even contemplate spending over Rs. 700 million on a referendum when money is desperately needed for urgent relief and rehabilitation work with over two million people displaced, and that too from areas which overwhelmingly voted in the UPFA?

Political tug of war

But the initial indications following the President's return to the country were not heartening with the constitutional reform moves still very much on her agenda as hinted to the JVP at President's House on Monday, December 27.

Further, the political tug of war that was going on between President's House and Temple Trees following the disaster was another sad indictment on a country's sense of priorities.

But for 36 hours after the tsunami hit Sri Lanka, from the debris rose a ray of hope with both Prime Minister, Mahinda Rajapakse and Opposition Leader, Ranil Wickremesinghe joining forces to discuss strategy and put in motion a relief operation, casting aside their political differences.

At the time the tsunami hit the east coast early morning of Sunday, December 26, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse was preparing for a bana ceremony at Temple Trees in view of it being Unduvap Poya Day. The time in London being the wee hours of the morning, President Kumaratunga was in the Land of Noddy, having enjoyed a Christmas dinner party the previous night.

It was Opposition Leader, Ranil Wickremesinghe who first got wind of the disaster to follow when he received a telephone call from UNP MP, Bandula Gunawardena who was stranded in Arugam Bay on top of a roof following the tsunami hitting the east coast.

Gunawardena told Wickremesinghe there was something eerie about the goings on and that he was stranded on top of a roof due to rising water levels.

The initial reaction of the Opposition Leader was that it could be floods given the recent developments in the east and advised Gunawardena to hold tight till he sent a rescue mission.

And soon after, Wickremesinghe called UNP Gampaha District MP, John Amaratunga and briefed him on the call made by Gunawardena and requested him to check with the security forces whether there were floods and to take steps to rescue the MP.

Within minutes thereafter Wickremesinghe received calls from Galle, Matara and Hambantota on the fury of the sea and he promptly telephoned Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse who was at the time in the middle of the bana ceremony. A message was taken and a security officer of the Prime Minister said Rajapakse would call the Opposition Leader back.

Ascertaining the damage

With that done, the Opposition Leader called his Chief Security Officer, SP H. Wickremasinghe who was in Wadduwa and requested him to arrive promptly and work the telephone lines and ascertain the damage whilst also making arrangements for him to visit the affected areas. UNP Chairman, Malik Samarawickrama also moved in.

While these developments were going on at Wickremesinghe's 5th Lane residence, the Prime Minister who had just finished the bana ceremony received an urgent call from his driver Tissa who was in Matara with the message that sea waves were crashing the city.

Believing it to be a panic reaction, Rajapakse told his driver it was a regular occurrence and not to take it seriously but the driver was insistent the waves were threatening.

At the same time, Rajapakse received another call from his security team who were also in Matara informing him their jeep had washed away and they were taking refuge on a mountain.

The Prime Minister, it appeared, had escaped the full impact of the tsunami by a whisker.

Rajapakse was to that afternoon travel to Matara with Environment Minister, A.H.M. Fowzie for a ceremony and his driver and security team had gone in advance.

The ceremony itself was fixed for the morning of December 26 but was postponed at the last moment for the afternoon due to the bana ceremony at Temple Trees in the morning.

In fact, Rajapakse and his family had spent Christmas eve and Christmas day in Bentota at the Prime Minister's official residence, planning to travel to Matara early December 26 but returned to Colombo Christmas night owing to the change of plans for the bana ceremony. Both the Premier's official residence and the Matara ceremony venue were fully impacted by the tidal wave.

Thereafter, having taken the call of his security officer, the Prime Minister receiving the Opposition Leader's message, returned the call and the duo discussed the unfolding developments.

With Wickremesinghe giving a full picture based on information in his possession and the Prime Minister likewise indicating facts within his knowledge, the duo decided to make an appeal for the people to remain calm, with relief measures being activated.

The Prime Minister also tried to make contact with the President in London but failed to get through.

Even Rajapakse and Wickremesinghe were not to know at the time the scale of the devastation but decided to get the security forces also activated in rescue operations in addition to forming an all party committee to draw up a plan of action.

Relief operations

With that out of the way, the Opposition Leader appointed a team headed by Deputy UNP Leader, Karu Jayasuriya to spearhead relief operations for the party and took off to the Wellawatte and Dehiwala areas accompanied by Colombo District MP, Ravi Karunanayake to inspect the damage whilst the Prime Minister started communicating with the service chiefs.

By this time, Prime Minister's Secretary, Lalith Weeratunga, Urban Development Minister, Dinesh Gunawardena and JVP Propaganda Secretary, Wimal Weerawansa also trooped into Temple Trees and there a command centre was set up to carry out rescue missions.

By now the time was 10:30 a.m., and the Prime Minister again tried to make contact with the service chiefs and requested their presence at Temple Trees to discuss overall rescue operations having set up the command centre but had little luck.

The service chiefs, the Prime Minister was told, were busy at a meeting with Secretary, Law and Order Ministry, Tilak Ranaviraja and could not meet Rajapakse at that point of time.

Having given a little more time, the Prime Minister again called back only to receive the same response, which was repeated at the third attempt as well.

Politics, it seems, was at play by this time with powers that be not keen to allow the Prime Minister to spearhead the operation in the absence of the President and several key ministers who were overseas including Lakshman Kadirgamar, Anura Bandaranaike, Mangala Samaraweera and Sarath Amunugama. Even Treasury Secretary, P.B. Jayasundera and Mano Tittawela were overseas.

The President had by now got an initial report on the tsunami and decided to work through Ranaviraja with no intimation to the Premier. The President did not even call the Prime Minister and request him to take charge till she chose to return.

In sharp contrast was the action Ranil Wickremesinghe took when the floods and landslides hit Ratnapura when he was premier. On that occasion he promptly told his Deputy, Karu Jayasuriya to take over till his return and even upon arrival directed Jayasuriya to carry on the relief effort with Wickremesinghe guiding it and looking at overall strategy.

Be that as it may, exasperated at the response received from the Law and Order Ministry, the Prime Minister accompanied by Minister Gunawardena and Weerawansa decided to go to the Law and Order Ministry where the service chiefs, Defence Secretary, Asoka Jayewardena and Ranaviraja were in discussion.

Walking into the meeting, the Prime Minister told Ranaviraja there was no point in wasting time talking endlessly when the need of the hour was action and said he has already set up a command room at Temple Trees to handle relief and rescue operations.

Chipping into support the Premier was Navy Commander, Daya Sandagiri who is also chief of joint operations. Sandagiri said he has also set up a command centre at his headquarters and it was fully manned by his officers.

With that said, Defence Secretary Jayawardena pointed out the absurdity of setting up yet another command centre at the Law and Order Ministry and decided to work from Temple Trees.

And while these decisions were being taken, President Kumaratunga was to call Ranaviraja again from London to ascertain the state of affairs and the Law and Order Secretary quickly handed the telephone to the Prime Minister.

That was to be the first and only contact that day between the President and the Prime Minister.

Taking the telephone, Prime Minister Rajapakse gave the President a quick update of the situation and the steps he has taken and advised Kumaratunga to return to the country at the earliest.

With that said, Rajapakse and team left for Temple Trees where a meeting of the donors for 3 p.m. was also convened.

The President for her part spoke to Ranaviraja for a few more minutes thereafter and cut the line. She later told friends with her she cannot leave that very day but would do so the following day.

President's directives

And while the Prime Minister and the service chiefs moved on to Temple Trees to execute their rescue aid relief mission, clad in full suit Ranaviraja was to go on state television explaining the unfolding developments and the directives issued by the President to execute relief operations.

The following day, Monday, December 27, the Premier and the Opposition Leader were to speak again on the ground situation with a meeting fixed that morning of party leaders at Temple Trees to discuss the plan of action underway.

The previous night, December 26, the Prime Minister had also convened an emergency cabinet meeting and appointed a sub committee chaired by him and comprising Ministers Dinesh Gunawardena, Susil Premjayanth, Pavithra Wanniarachchi, Felix Perera, Tissa Vitarana, D.E.W. Gunasekera, Anura Dissanayake and Wimal Weerawansa to spearhead the operation from the government side.

Thus, after their discussion the Opposition Leader informed Rajapakse he would be going down south to inspect the situation whilst Karu Jayasuriya would attend the party leaders meeting. Wickremesinghe also told Rajapakse he will keep him briefed on his observations following the visit.

And while the party leaders meeting was underway at Temple Trees, the Opposition Leader was touring Galle and was informed by the government agent that three hospitals were out of service due to the devastation and relief and rescue operations were slowing down.

Given that information, Wickremesinghe promptly called Rajapakse and put the government agent on line to give him a first hand account of the situation in Galle after which the Opposition Leader and the Prime Minister discussed further steps that needed to be taken to expedite the relief operation.

The Prime Minister by this time had also called Indian High Commissioner, Nirupama Rao on her mobile phone  and urged assistance, particularly for helicopters, only to be told she was in India.

However, the High Commissioner said she would get her military attache to get in touch with Rajapakse to plan the rescue operation, which he did.

To reinforce the urgent requirements, the Opposition Leader too called India as well as Japan and Norway and sought urgent relief whilst informing Milinda Moragoda who was in Washington to make contact with the State Department.

And by Monday evening, President Kumaratunga was back in town and immediately took charge of the operation. Though the Prime Minister had set up a fund for relief operations, the President was to through the media announce that all funds should be deposited in an account her office had opened at People's Bank.

The President, for example, called the Maliban owner and requested assistance, only to be told he has already done so through the Prime Minister.

Power games

That was the starting point of a lack of coordination and rather than pooling all teams together, different power blocks in government started operating separately.

Nevertheless, Monday evening itself the President called a meeting with the Prime Minister, several ministers, service chiefs and key officials, Tilak Ranaviraja, Asoka Jayawardena, Jayantha Dhanapala amongst others, where there was a stock taking exercise.

It was Ranaviraja who first tried to explain the steps taken only to be cut down to size by the Prime Minister, who by this time appeared agitated at efforts to undermine the relief operations he had put in motion.

Rajapakse told the President, whatever Ranaviraja tried to make out, all credit must go to the service chiefs who acted promptly to put rescue operations in motion.

The Premier explained the steps taken to photograph, finger print and bury the bodies and combat the outbreak of disease.

Following this meeting, the President was to also meet with Opposition Leader, Ranil Wickremesinghe and Karu Jayasuriya, where it was whispered there will be no show by Wickremesinghe.

Having still not returned from his tour in the South, Wickremesinghe sent Jayasuriya for the meeting in advance, causing panic at President's House.

Frantic calls were made to Wickremesinghe only to be told he was on his way. In fact, CWC Leader, Arumugan Thondaman was also invited for the meeting stating the Opposition Leader too would be present but there was no show by Thondaman.

Present at the meeting with the President were Rajapakse, Dinesh Gunawardena, Ferial Ashraff, Douglas Devananda, A.H.M. Fowzie, Tissa Vitarana, D.E.W. Gunasekera, Ratnasiri Wickremanayake, Wimal Weerawansa and Tilvin Silva. Wickremesinghe and Jayasuriya represented the UNP. Government officials including Ranaviraja, Dhanapala, Harim Peiris and Foreign Secretary, Palihakkara were also at hand.

And when the meeting started, Palihakkara making a pitch for his Minister, Lakshman Kadirgamar, who was overseas, said the minister had contacted all diplomatic missions and solicited assistance.

It was, however, Ranaviraja who raised a few eyebrows claiming the death toll was only around 8,000, which comments drew a sharp response from Ferial Ashraff.

Snapped Ashraff - "How can that be? In Ampara alone, the death toll will be 5,000."

Assessment

Supporting Ferial Ashraff was the Opposition Leader, who went on to give his assessment of the situation and the action that needed to be taken to expedite relief and rescue operations. He also adverted to the hospitals that were out of service in the south.

This prompted the President to state the death toll would rise over 15,000 but it was evident by this time given the drift in conversation the government had lost all direction.

With the return of the President and Prime Minister Rajapakse's operation marginalised, confusion was the order of the day.

In fact, on the way out, the ministers were heard commenting on the embarrassment of having to get details of the hospital situation from the Opposition Leader.

It is this lack of coordination evident on the ground that led to television channels such as CNN and BBC being critical of the government's handling of the relief operations.

And Wickremesinghe for his part too realising the coordinated plan discussed with Rajapakse being sidelined, told Jayasuriya to work with the President on her efforts but told his party to intensify the party's own efforts to ensure the maximum number of people received relief despite the lack of a government machinery to back them up.

Sadly, this tug of war in government also saw the business community aghast when they met with President Kumaratunga on Tuesday, December 28.

To the shock of the business community, the President who was holidaying in London at the time of the calamity rather than thanking all concerned for their untiring efforts, started off the meeting by being critical of the Prime Minister, stating nothing had happened till she returned to the country the previous evening.

Bewildered at her comments, several business leaders commented that for Kumaratunga, even at a time of national calamity, the preoccupation was taking cheap political shots.

LTTE reaction

And the consequences of these developments were felt before long with the LTTE and TNA coming out strongly against the government for its handling of the humanitarian crisis in the north east

So irked and vexed were the Tamil MPs as well as the LTTE, it was decided to boycott all meetings convened by the government.

However, one MP, Selvan did not receive the decision of the party and participated at a meeting in Jaffna called by Minister D.E.W. Gunasekera and Harim Peiris, but he used the opportunity to be sharply critical of the government's actions.

It is this wrath the Tamils also unleashed when the Prime Minister visited Jaffna on Tuesday accompanied by Minister Jeyaraj Fernandopulle, Susil Premajayanth, Anura Dissanayake, Deputy Minister Dilan Perera and Wimal Weerawansa.

The previous night itself, hearing of the impending visit, it was announced through loudspeakers the JVP will not be welcome in the north but this information did not reach Rajapakse.

Thus, on Thursday, when the Prime Minister arrived in Jaffna, there were loud protests including an attack with sticks by Tamils looking for the JVP.

Stating they were not opposing the visit by the Prime Minister, the placard waving protestors asked the JVP "traitors" to get out of the north east. The JVPers, it seemed, were getting a taste of their own medicine and took cover in the safety of the security forces.

Subsequently, the President invited the TNA MPs for a meeting but was informed by MP, Mavai Senathirajah the party will not participate at her meeting.

But for the President, the important factor was the propaganda mileage and the state media announced the following day, relief was flowing to the north and east.

That apart, the political fallout of the tsunami devastation is causing ripples in government and it can but only be hoped, Kumaratunga will at least now rise above petty politics and act in the best national interests.

Now, to face the economic tsunami

By Mandana Ismail Abeywickrema  The impact the tsunami devastation could have on the country's economy is still being assessed by the Central Bank as well as the donors in a bid to promote coordination of donor support for medium and long-term rehabilitation and reconstruction. But the consensus was that there would be an impact on the economy both in the short term as well as in the long run. However, by the end of the week, neither party was in a position to give any figures on the magnitude of the damage. On December 30, Treasury Secretary, P. B. Jayasundera held discussions with the donor agencies headed by the UNDP on long and short term relief measures.

Deputy Governor, Central Bank, W. A. Wijewardena

A look at the areas affected and the video footage on the destruction of infrastructure and properties sends one warning bell - the new year is going to herald in a different kind of challenge for the country's economy.

Reduced growth

The devastation brought about by the tsunami, many feel, would yet again hamper the country's economic growth, at a time it was on a rebound from facing the impact of double shocks - drought and escalating global fuel prices - through most of 2004.

The devastating effects of the tsunami are expected to reduce the country's growth levels, increase inflation and cost of living. In short, economic disaster.

Be that as it may, officials from the Central Bank and economic analysts feel that although the destruction would create a negative impact on the economy, it would not be as bad as expected.

Private economic analysts say that the country would experience a 1% drop in the GDP growth rate. Deputy Governor, Central Bank, W. A. Wijewardena however, says that the impact would not be that bad.

Maintaining the country's foreign reserves too is expected to pose a challenge for the government. However, analysts feel that the foreign aid flow is expected to keep the country's foreign reserves from declining next year.

One thing that analysts feel the masses would be hard put to face up to - the cost of living brought about by the widening of the budget deficit.

However, with the large amount of rebuilding and rehabilitation work, "everyone will have to bear some cost of it."

Fishing, tourism hard hit

The tourism industry and the fisheries industry have been badly hit by the disaster as every fisheries harbour in the southern and eastern coastal belts has been destroyed.

The tourism industry was booming this time round with almost every resort hotel being fully booked for the season. The unfortunate incident that took place on Sunday is expected to dent the profits made so far by the industry.

The only saving grace for the country's economy is the fact that the most devastating effects of the tsunami were felt mostly by the Eastern Province and some parts of the Southern Province, which does not contribute as much to the country's economy as the Western Province, which has not been affected that much.

Officials from the Prime Minister's Office observed that while the coastal belt from Negombo to Jaffna has been affected by the tsunami, the worst affected areas were Ampara, Batticaloa, Trincomalee and Galle in the Southern Province.

The government is yet in the process of assessing the full amount of the damage in the areas affected and as a result, is not in a position to release rough estimates.

Officials however noted that the rebuilding of the infrastructure in the affected areas - roads, railways, buildings and fisheries harbours - would take some time.

While the main Galle Road has been cleared up to Hikkaduwa, travelling beyond that point would not be possible for sometime as three main bridges have been badly damaged by the tsunami. The reconstruction of the railway is also expected to take several weeks or even months.

More than 15,000 vehicles have been damaged due to the tsunami.

CB task force

Wijewardena said that the Central Bank has already appointed a task force to assess the damages and its impact on the country's economy, adding that till the final report is made available, commenting on the damage or the economy would not be possible.

An interim report by the task force was however, expected to be handed over to the government by Friday.

However, Wijewardena noted that while there definitely would be a negative impact on the country's economy, it would not be as disastrous as expected.

According to Economic Analyst, Ravi Abeysuriya, the worst impact of the tsunami was felt by the Southern and Eastern Provinces, which do not make large contributions to the country's economy. Most of the contributions to the country's economy is made by the Western Province.

Abeysuriya observed that although the tourism and fisheries sectors would be affected to some extent, it would not be as bad as the resumption of war.

Apart from the loss of lives, Abeysuriya felt that the rebuilding of infrastructure and industries would go on with the foreign aid expected to flow in.

Tourism is expected to pick up in a few months, as a natural disaster is far different from a war or a bomb explosion.

Abeysuriya, sharing the same sentiment as Wijewardena said that the economic impact would not be as bad as expected.

However, he pointed out that the disaster would result in an increase in the budget deficit for the year, which in turn would result in an increase in the cost of living.

"Everyone will have to bear some part of the cost of the disaster," he said.

While discussions are being held from President Chandrika Kumaratunga to government officials to multilateral donor agencies, this week is expected to see the beginning of the rehabilitation programmes to find relief for those displaced.

January 15 is expected to be the deadline given by President Chandrika Kumaratunga to begin the rebuilding efforts.