Politics

Kausalyan leaves a vacuum in the east

S.P. Tamilselvan paying his last respects to the slain Kausalyan

By Amantha Perera and Easwaran Rutnam 

Last September 7, slain LTTE Political Head of Amaparai and Batticaloa Districts, Eliathamby Lingaraja alias Kausalyan walked into a meeting with the Head, Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) Trond Furhovde with a smile.

"I have someone you want to meet," he said, and in walked Ramnan, the LTTE intelligence head for the east. The peace monitors had been trying desperately to meet with the elusive Ramnan, who they knew was spearheading Tiger efforts to consolidate the east as well as replenish cadre levels. SLMM monitors had once driven up to the 49 Base near Vakarai to meet with Ramnan, but were turned back.

Though Ramnan did not take part in the meeting or participate in any future meetings the then 32 year old Kausalyan had once again lived up to his word. In the face of mounting criticism by the monitors as well as other organisations like UNICEF that the Tigers were recruiting children, the onus fell on Kausalyan to take some sort of assertive action. The bringing together of Ramnan and the SLMM officials was Kausalyan's way of signalling to the monitors that he had brought them face to face with the military commanders.

Longing for peace

Kausalyan who was brutally slain last week at Namalgama near Welikanda on the A-11 highway linking Habarana and Valachchenai had the knack of winning hearts. Small made and effusive, he came across as the man who would listen and be patient. From the army to the SLMM to visiting journalists, everyone was eager to meet Kausalyan in the east. "Kausalyan was a decent and soft spoken man who was tired of war and longed for a life with prosperity and peace," said a source within a multinational agency based in Batticaloa who interacted closely with him.

Soon after his elevation as LTTE Political Commissar of the east, Kausalyan got the opportunity to travel abroad. He once returned from a study trip to Scandinavia on the federal system curious as a child. "He had a real genuine curiosity about life and governments in other countries and always asked me many questions about how minorities in other countries had fought for their rights and won either independence or autonomy," the same source said adding that Kausalyan kept on peppering questions about federalism and power sharing.

It was no secret within the LTTE that Kausalyan was a rising star. "He is a very high ranking member," former Eastern Military Head, Ramesh remarked to SLMM monitors just before he was recalled to the Wanni and replaced by Bhanu. Kausalyan was the point man for the LTTE in the east. He in fact took part in the latest round of talks Norwegian Ambassador Hans Brattskar had with Political Head S. P. Tamilselvan in Kilinochchi. And his death leaves a vacuum that would be very difficult to fill.

"Kausalyan is no ordinary man, he commanded the respect of others," TNA MP M. K. Elaventhan who had recently helped in the tsunami relief efforts in the east said.

"He was a good decision maker and he was patient," echoed Marshall, a middle level LTTE member from Vakarai.

The funeral itself stood testament to his standing within the organisation. The body was paraded in all the major towns from Batticaloa to Kalmunai, irrespective whether they were in government held areas or otherwise. Top Tiger leadersflew in for the funeral.Never has there been a similar funeral for a slain LTTEer. He was laid to rest at the Thandiyandi Heroes Cemetery near Karadiyanaru. A crowd of more than 15,000 attended the funeral.

Even members of the army agreed that Kausalyan's loss would be felt greatly. He was in fact credited with holding back extreme elements within the eastern command from launching all out and while the new military leaders like Bhanu, Prabha, Ram and Ramnan kept their distance while dealing with the security forces or the SLMM, Kausalyan played Tamilselvan of the east for the LTTE.

Given his history within the LTTE including military service and stints in the finance division and judicial section, Kausalyan was respected by the military wing members as well. His word carried a lot of weight in the east, especially after the Karuna defection. Last August, The Sunday Leader was stranded in Kokkadicholai within Tiger areas-all top ranking leaders were deep in the interior held back in discussions and if not for a nominal meeting with the man, movement was severely restricted. Kausalyan conveyed a message through his secretary cum translator S. Manoj. "Go where ever you want to, do what you want, if anyone asks questions, tell them Kausalyan has okayed this," was the message and all restrictions were lifted. There wasn't even the usual LTTE political wing escort.

Public face

But more than such power it was the public face that was of more value to the Tigers. "He represented a brighter future for the LTTE and the Tamil people because he was so eager to learn and to adapt," sources from an international organisation working in Batticaloa said. Even on very small matters, Kausalyan intervened.

Once army officers complained to him about some Muslims being prevented from going to their fields in LTTE-held areas. "The next day he sent a message and all was ok," security forces sources in the east told The Sunday Leader. With such action he was at least able to rebuild some of the burnt fences with the eastern Muslims.

It was not that he wasn't a tough bargainer. Recently he walked out of a relief related meeting when the JVP walked in and kept on insisting that the rapprochement efforts between the government and the Tigers in the east would not be fulfilled just as long as Karuna and his loyalists continued with violence. He also deftly answered issues raised by the armed forces side on violence allegedly perpetrated by the LTTE.

Since the split, Karuna supporters have been taking out the public faces of the Tigers in the east, namely political wing operatives.

The first big hit came two months after Karuna defected to government areas when the Wanni faction launched a ruthless attack during Easter weekend last April. On July 5, the LTTE's Heroes Day, Ramalingam Padamaseelan alias Lt. Col. Senathiraja, who headed the political office in Batticaloa was shot in Batticaloa town. He died eight days later.

Little over a month later, on August 20, Vasu Bawa, the former political head for Amaparai and Yoga another political wing cadre were killed in an ambush near Kajuwatte, on the Batticaloa-Trincomalee highway. They had just entered government controlled areas when they fell victim to a claymore-mine blast and subsequent shooting.

Close relationship

Both Senathi and Bawa maintained very good relationships with the SLMM and security forces. When Senathi's body was being ferried from LTTE controlled areas to government controlled areas at the Mammunai crossing, Bawa pointed at the casket and a senior army officer standing near the ferry dock and said "they were very close."

Now that Kausalyan too has joined the list of victims of internecine violence within the LTTE, the political wing in the volatile east has been left weakened. His replacement Daya Mohan still has to prove his mettle. Mohan was handling LTTE administrative affairs in the east and functioned as Kausalyan's deputy in the tsunami relief effort. The relief effort is also very likely to be disrupted.

The retaliation from the Tigers will be worse than what followed the Senathi and Bawa murders.

Cadres lining up the roads when the casket moved through Batticaloa and Amparai, were livid  and calling for all  out  retaliation. Once again the only thing holding back an immediate attack was the hierarchically dictatorial regime of the Tigers. If the orders were to break out and launch, the eastern brigades of the Tigers were ever willing to do that last week. However, the leadership indicated that it was being patient. "Fighting is not the way towards peace talks. We will continue with the peace talks," an English statement read at the Devanayagam Hall in Batticaloa town on Thursday morning when the bodies of Kausalyan, former MP Chandranehru Arianayagam and three other LTTE cadres were displayed.

The LTTE in Kilinochchi said that evidence from the cadre who survived the shooting would prove that the army was involved in the incident.

LTTE Media Coordinator, Daya Master told The Sunday Leader the cadre identified as Vinodan who is currently receiving treatment at the Colombo National Hospital had mentioned that the assassins were in military fatigues.

The Political Wing of the LTTE in a press release issued on Tuesday also noted that the assassins were in military fatigues, but failed to point fingers at the army directly although Karuna's name was also not mentioned on the release.

When queried as to why Karuna's name was not mentioned on the official press release and if the LTTE was trying to say that the army was "directly" involved in the shooting incident, Daya Master simply said "it's up to you to judge."

However the statement made in Batticaloa was more direct, "this terrible act is supported by the military side," it read.

Conflicting reports emanated from the army and the LTTE almost immediately after the shooting. The army said that soldiers at camps near Namalgama had heard the gunfire and rushed to the location. The LTTE first said they had received an urgent call from one of the survivors after the attack, most likely Vinodan.

The army first maintained that the van was followed by another vehicle and then fired. Thereafter the assailants walked up to the van and fired at point blank range. The LTTE said the attackers had waylaid the van and ambushed it. Then walked up and shot. The second description looks the most plausible given the state of the van that was sprayed with bullets.

There is no denying that Kausalyan was the target, the attackers had walked up and aimed at his head and fired an automatic T56 at him killing him on the spot.

The Namalgama area has always been suspected to be a hive of activity ofKaruna supporters and the LTTE has repeatedly notified the SLMM about their fear.

Army involvement

"Punani (close to Namalgama) is full of Karuna people and the LTTE has for a long time alleged they are enjoying a safe haven there. In the evening, the army is not active in that area and it is possible the gunmen could have been there unseen, but there are too many stories about Karuna people hanging out in the area for it not to be true," said sources with access to both the LTTE and the army.

Two weeks back when The Sunday Leader travelled on the same stretch around 8 p.m. in the night, several armyfoot patrols were on the road.

The Tigers have maintained that Karuna supporters are active on a ring that stretches from Aralaganwila south of the A-11 highway all the way up to Omadiyamadu close to the Trincomalee border in the north. The Tigers say that Karuna supporters lurk on the Batticaloa - Polonnaruwa border and infiltrate when the time is opportune.

The location of several attacks targeting LTTE cadres including Bawa and Yoga and installations like the attack on the Periyapillumalai LTTE guard post on the border with Maha Oya on September 7 indicate the possible infiltration from within the ring. An LTTE infiltrator also carried out a major attack on Karuna supporters at Nagasthenne in Welikanda on October 11.

"The slaying of Bawa and Yoga, and of Senathi, it's clear that Karunapeople are involved and it is at least a possibility that they had the confidence to do that partly because they know their enemy very well, and partly because they were not obstructed in any way," the same source said.

The day after the attack, two army informants (names withheld) said they were in the area when the attack took place and were able to clearly indicate where Kausalyan had been seated, right behind the driver.

On the same day, a report appeared in a relatively unknown pro-Karuna website Athurady that quoted a Karuna supporter by the name of Barathi alleging that Thaiyaseelan, a former LTTEer now with Karuna had carried out the attack. It said that a former security guard of the slain MP had given the tip off when Kausalyan switched from the double cab into the van in Polonnaruwa and that the attackers had been informed of the switch by way of a SMS.

LTTE targeted

Army sources confirmed they are aware of Thaiyaseelan, but added that his name had not  been linked to Karuna since the defection.

On Thursday night a statement was issued by a group calling themselves the Tamil National Force (TNF) taking responsibility for the attack. The statement issued under the name of Cheran said that the TNF was under the command of TamilEela Makkal Viduthalai Pulikal (TMVP) - Karuna's political party and the Eelam National Democratic Liberation Front (ENDLF).

The statement said the assassin operated alone adding, "if it was done by the Sri Lankan Army, why should the army wait to kill one by one in face-to-face encounters? They could easily get rid of Balasingham, Tamilselvan, Karikalan, Kausalyan, Thamilenthi and others, when they use to air-dash in the Sri Lanka government's helicopters by targeting it with a Sam 7 and kill all, lock, stock and barrel?"

Army sources confirmed the presence of a cadre by the name Cheran when Karuna held sway in the east.

T. Rajarathnam, the only official to appear in public on behalf of the TMVP and ENDLF since the split told The Sunday Leader last year that TMVP members were active in Batticaloa but were looking after their own security. He disappeared soon afterwards and is believed to have been abducted by the Tigers.

Last October the LTTE released a wanted list of sorts identifying former cadres now working for Karuna. The leaflet named Iniyaparathi, Mangalan, Markan, Ruthira, Sinnathambi, and Pillaiyan with pictures as the top Karuna lieutenants active in Batticaloa. Markan is known to be the group that is known as 'the Markan group.'

"Those photos of six men the LTTE posted as wanted, they are apparently responsible (for the Bawa and Senathi murders) according to LTTE intelligence," sources from the east said. They revealed that the six were reported to be active in the area of the Kausalyan assassination. In fact Markan survived the Nagastenne attack.

Ironically, Kausalyan joined the LTTE in 1989 when he witnessed an attack by troops based at a camp near Punnani.

The LTTE leadership held several rounds of discussions on Tuesday on their next move with regard to the peace process and aid distribution following the assassination of Kausalyan who was posthumously given the rank of Lt. Colonel.

An LTTE political division officer, who wished to remain anonymous, said that Kausalyan's death is a major blow to the organisation as he was a good leader and an asset to the LTTE.

He noted that the LTTE had decided not to use force against the army under any circumstances after the tsunami but that stand might change.

"There have been a number of instances where the LTTE was the target of Karuna's supporters operating under the assistance of the army. The LTTE held back on those occasions. Now I believe the line has been crossed," he said.

Kausalyan was in Kilinochchi the day prior to his assassination to meet Tamilselvan to discuss tsunami relief activities related to the east.

Tamilselvan cancelled a planned meetinghe was to have with the World Bank and Asian Development Bank officials in Kilinochchi on Tuesday. The Tiger flag was flown at half mast at all LTTE institutions and buildings in Kilinochchi.

The Tamils in Kilinochchi were shocked at the news of Kausalyan's death saying he was a much respected man who worked hard for the sake of peace in the country.

Not ready for war

"There was no way the incident could have taken place without the support of the army because it was in a military controlled area. This is an attempt to instigate violence between the army and the LTTE. I believe this will impact the future of the peace process," says S. Sabesan, a textile store owner in Kilinochchi.

Sabesan noted that the LTTE could have easily restarted the war if it wanted to but was patient with the interest of the Tamil people of the north and east in mind.

A 19 year old LTTE cadre identified as Senthamil said that it was obvious the army had a hand in the killing.

"One cannot just enter army territory and assassinate someone without their help. Once the cadre who is in hospital gives concrete evidence I'm sure it will prove the army was directly involved," he said.

But the indication at the funeral was that the Tigers had decided not to take extreme measures. Yes they kept blaming the security forces for allowing the murder, the underlying message was that the Tigers were not quite ready for war as yet.

Kausalyan, married only recently, leaves his wife four months pregnant.

Duplication in govt. reconstruction estimates?

By Mandana Ismail Abeywickrema 

Close to two months after the tsunami, the country is faced with a new set of challenges - rebuilding the country and the economy.

Foreign aid pledged and debt moratoriums have so far contained the economy from hitting rock bottom due to the disaster - at least for the time being.

Implications

The implications of debt moratoriums on the country's economic future have largely been overlooked due to the state coffers filling up rapidly. (See box)

The leading donor agencies - World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Japan Bank for International Co-operation (JBIC) - the joint preliminary damage and needs assessment report estimates direct losses from the tsunami of December 26, at US$ 1 billion. Reconstruction costs are pegged at around US$ 1.5 billion. According to the World Bank, that is seven per cent of the country's annual domestic economic output (GDP).

In human terms, the devastation is widespread, and the needs are great. The coastal areas hit by the tsunami are among the poorest parts of Sri Lanka. Nearly 100,000 homes have been destroyed, and some 443,000 people remain displaced.

Although the preliminary needs assessment has summed up US$ 1.5 billion as the total amount of funds needed for reconstruction, it is interesting to note that almost half the reconstruction needs are being met by various private sector donors as well as NGOs and INGOs.

For example, the damage overview and recovery needs in the housing sector have been estimated between US$ 437 million and US$ 487 million. This amount is expected to cover the rebuilding costs of the 99,480 completely destroyed and the 44,290 partially destroyed houses in the tsunami ravaged districts.

According to the donors, the state would need up to US$ 487 million to rebuild houses. However, it is interesting to note that private donors and NGOs have come forward to rebuild the houses in most of the districts.

Pvt. sector funds

The housing needs in the Hambantota District have been completely taken care of by the private sector. (See box)

The same applies to the education, health and water and sanitation sectors.

Various private sector organisations, NGOs, INGOs and even foreign volunteers have come forward with relief aid.

The outpouring of humanitarian aid and assistance for various affected sectors in the aftermath of the tsunami means a considerable reduction in the estimated cost of reconstruction.

It could also mean a decline in the country's borrowing needs as well.

The country has so far received much of the funds from donor agencies in the form of grants and soft loans. Assistance in the form of soft loans will further add to the country's already burgeoning debt bill.

JBIC has so far provided the country US$ 80 million to address urgent reconstruction needs.

According JBIC Representative, Shinya Ejima, the bank acting on behalf of the Japanese government has already made available the money pledged and is being utilised through the line ministries.

However, Ejima did not know the amount that has already been spent from the funds made available by the Japanese agency.

ADB Country Head, Alessandro Pio said that the bank's assistance has been on three steps.

The first step of addressing the immediate relief measures according to Pio cannot be quantified. The second was to re-allocate funds from already existing programmes. So far, the bank has re-allocated between US$ 30 to 35 million from existing fund allocations.

World Bank Country Head, Peter Harrold observed that the bank is in the process of calculating the amount spent so far under emergency relief measures.

The World Bank on Friday made available US$ 75 million for the Sri Lankan government to use for rebuilding purposes.

Harrold noted that by end February, a new fund of US$ 75 million - part grant and part soft loan - would also be made available.

Estimates remain

According to Harrold, US$ 1.5 billion is expected to be mobilised between 2006 and 2007.

Though the active role played by the private sectors and NGOs in the rebuilding process is expected to reduce the initial damage and needs assessment considerably, according to Pio, the preliminary damage estimates would remain the same as it is a calculation of the total amount needed to rebuild the nation.

He also observed that the role played by the private sector and NGOs would reduce the need for excessive borrowing.

The ADB, Pio said would contribute to the end of overall construction.

Pio also pointed out that the country would need funds at hand as the money declared has to still come in.

From a historical perspective it is evident that most often donor aid pledged does not materialise in full.

Iran is yet to receive even a fraction of the donor aid pledged to rebuild Bam after an earthquake left the city devastated taking thousands of lives. Central American cities which were pledged money for rebuilding have so far reported to have received only one third of the money pledged.

The difference in monetary aid pledged and received would be felt by the country as the rebuilding process progresses.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) meanwhile has reported that while the Sri Lankan authorities' initial estimates have put the physical damage at US$ 1.3 to US$ 1.5bn, the implications for the economy were much wider than this.

Macroeconomic impact

"The broader macroeconomic impact will clearly be substantial but the details are difficult to assess at this early stage," the IMF said. Growth, inflation, the balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves are all expected to show the effects of lost businesses and reconstruction costs.

According to the IMF, earnings from tourism this year are expected to be 15% lower than last year.

Economic growth this year is expected to be 4%, which is about 1% less than previously forecast. Inflation could climb to 14% compared to a previous estimate of 12%.

Although major exports have not suffered, the IMF has pointed out that the reconstruction effort will require higher imports which could damage the balance of payments.

The IMF has approved Sri Lanka's request for a freeze on loan repayments.