Focus

India's role in South Asia

The report in the pro LTTE publication Sudar Oli ( reproduced in some English language dailies) about Pakistan offering assistance to combat the threat of the LTTE developing air power, in all probability, is a multi purpose trial balloon floated by the LTTE. The report which said that the offer made during the recent visit of Pakistan's Air Chief Marshal Kaleem Saadat is aimed at to (1) determine whether such an offer was made while inviting a response from both Sri Lankan and Pakistani governments (2) foul up Indo-Sri Lanka relations and (3) involve the United States in the issue because it is said that the offer has the blessings of the US.

India is hypersensitive to activities of foreign powers, especially Pakistan, in South Asia. It is alleged that the Indo-Sri Lanka defence agreement is being held up because India wants the use of Pallaly air base only for its use, excluding all other foreign powers. Thus, the purpose is to pre-empt not only the possible entry of Pakistan but also foul up Sri Lanka's relations with New Delhi.

US-Indian relations

In last Sunday's Foreign Affairs column, we pointed out to India's concern on the entry of foreign powers to this region. We quoted an article in the journal Focus, published in New Delhi, which reflects the Indian government's foreign policy by Prof. Suryanarayan. The article pointed out at the policy of isolation of Sri Lanka (after the withdrawal of the Indian troops from Sri Lanka) by successive Indian governments which resulted in external powers playing a big role in India's southern neighbourhood. The article said: "The increasing American interest, with Japan working in tandem with the United States are not only pointers to greater American involvement but also evidence of India's neglect of the immediate neighbourhood."

Geopolitics has undergone drastic changes since the days of Indira Gandhi. India's ally, at that time, the Soviet Union with which it had a Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation - a virtual defence treaty - is no more. The hidden hand - United States - is now clasped very warmly by all Indians.

India that objected in the 1980s even to the establishment of a VOA relay station in Sri Lanka completely somersaulted in its relations with the United States within a decade.

Following 9/11 India saw a big opening in its fight against terrorism. Indian analysts have pointed out that after the attack on the Twin Towers, even before the United States requested for assistance, "India within two days offered all logistical help and even offered staging grounds for operations. The reason was that India considered what she described as cross-border terrorism originating from Afghanistan and coming through Pakistan. Thus when the US declared war against the Taliban in Afghanistan, it was seen as the best that could happen to India which was plagued by terrorism in Kashmir which it considered as originating from Afghanistan. However, India miscalculated on the developments consequent to 9/11 on US-Pak relations.

Prof. V. P. Dutt, former MP and expert on international affairs in an article says: 'India forgot the geopolitics of the region... It was not India but Pakistan that the US needed to operate against the Taliban and the Al Qaeda in Afghanistan... On the one hand USA continued to assure India that Washington was opposed to all forms of terrorism including Kashmir and kept pressing Pakistan to lower the terrorist camping but only up to a point. ...India was slow to realise that America could not abandon Pakistan under the present circumstances and in the foreseeable future. In the process India became heavily dependent on the United States in its war on terrorism in Kashmir and elsewhere in India. The erosion in foreign policy can be traced to these developments.'

It is not only the war against terrorism that has brought India and the US close together but trade and economic links bind them even closer. When the US threatened sanctions against India following the explosion of nuclear bombs, Indian analysts laughed off the threats pointing out that the US software industry alone was heavily dependent on Indians who were exporting big time from Bangalore.

Big power

India wants big power status in the world. It wants a seat in the expanded Security Council of the UN. For that it has to have American support. Its economy is expanding. Its exports today are over the US$ 40 billion mark and two way trades with international trading regimes is over US$ 90 billion. It is claimed that the people living below the poverty line in India had dropped from 40 per cent to 26 per cent in the period 1980 - 2000. Some Indian analysts also see India as the regional power in South Asia playing a dominant role in patrolling and securing the sea lanes across the Indian Ocean, which was visualised by the Indian military strategist K. M. Pannikar at the dawn of Indian independence. India now makes no bones of wanting big power status and to be the regional power in South Asia.

But economies of other nations too are expanding and is led by China with whom India has to compete with. China wants to be a South Asian power as well and wants to expand its interests in South Asia.

A Chinese professor in international Affairs, Sun Xun at the PLA University of Foreign Languages in a paper presented to the Regional Centre of Strategic Studies points out that in the context of the great changes in global politics since the Cold War, new alignments and realignments are taking place in the Asia Pacific region including South Asia. China perceives Asia as its natural cultural domain and is taking strategic steps to enhance its role as a big power. China is not happy in the emerging unipolar world order with the US as the remaining superpower. China's geographical proximity and its vast size and enormous resources have made it a prominent factor in South Asia as in the old days. He points out that the South Asian strategic configuration has not yet been finalised and the realignment of forces are still going on. The old differences are still not removed and new conditions are still emerging. This will have unpredictable effects on China, he concludes.

Indian realigning

Indeed new realignments are taking place in South Asia and there appears to be still some old differences remaining. This is perhaps evident in India's concern about the presence of foreign powers on its southern borders - Sri Lanka. However, despite the close political and economic links that are being forged between India, America and other developed nations who are involved in the Sri Lankan peace process, India still appears to be concerned about their presence and role here even though these Western powers have been at pains to keep India informed of whatever developments that are supposed to be taking place.

This situation has been the result of Sri Lanka's folly for internationalising an internal issue that should have been resolved by ourselves. Now, Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar wants India to play the key role but Norway that came in as a facilitator for getting peace talks going is now the peace monitor and peace broker as well. Where do we go from here?

Where has all the money gone?

Rs. 750 million received so far says Treasury Secretary P.B. Jayasundera. US $ 250 million worth of tsunami related funds and equipment says the Japanese Embassy in Sri Lanka. US $ 15 million as first tranche of US $ 150 million in total, asserts the World Bank. But according to the Head of the Republic and First Citizen, the government coffers are still like Old Mother Hubbard's cupboard. In yet another statement that had the country reeling (and this is fast becoming a weekly occurrence), President Chandrika Kumaratunga managed in one fell swoop to severely embarrass Treasury officials and have the donor community most interested to find out what the devil is happening to money that's pouring into the country.

"According to initial assessments, Sri Lanka needs Rs. 16 billion to rebuild infrastructure alone after the tsunami. Even though various organisations and countries have pledged to give us this money, none of it has been received yet. Some people say that the government has received huge amounts of money which it is hiding from the people. But I would like to say with responsibility that up to date the government hasn't received even five cents of the money pledged."

- President Chandrika Kumaratunga speaking at a foundation stone laying ceremony of a model town in Yayawatte, Tangalle on Tuesday, March 15.

Perhaps the Chief Justice is right after all. Brake oil maybe in order to rein in the Presidential tongue.