Focus

George Bush in the  great new game of Central Asia 

By Gamini Weerakoon 

The Central Asian republics are in turmoil. There has been the Revolution of the Roses in Georgia that resulted in President Eduard Shevardnadze being thrown out, the Orange........

More....

> The deadly silence (...Serendipity)

> Those bally erections! (...Thelma)

> Country to face salt shortage?

George Bush in the  great new game of Central Asia 

By Gamini Weerakoon 

The Central Asian republics are in turmoil. There has been the Revolution of the Roses in Georgia that resulted in President Eduard Shevardnadze being thrown out, the Orange Revolution that resulted in pro-Western Viktor Yushenko in Ukraine being elected to power and turmoil in Kyrgyzstan, which has been dubbed the Tulip Revolution.

Two weeks ago there was a massacre  in Uzbekistan where hundreds of people were killed by security forces in the city of Andijan. It resulted in a demand for an international probe into the killings. President Islam Karimov has accused Islamic radicals of attempting to overthrow his government.

The break up of the Soviet Union  resulted in its under belly that comprised the Central Asian republics comprising majority of Muslims emerging as independent and sovereign republics. This once stable and undisturbed region of the former Soviet Union has now emerged as a very volatile region where all big powers are said to be playing a great new game. The resurgence of Islamic fundamentalism may be a major cause for the turmoil. The greater reason, however, appears to be the vast natural resources - oil and gas - that lies around the Caspian Sea.

Afghanistan which is also blessed with large reserves of natural gas lies on the southern  borders of these Central Asian republics. There are now  an estimated 17,000 US troops fighting what are described as remnants of the former Taliban regime. Sheer military power has driven out the fundamentalist Islamic Taliban regime and the Americans hold sway with their chosen leader Hamid Karzai, who was elected president in an election directed and conducted by American rule. But if President George W. Bush is attempting to establish a democratic republic in this rugged and desolate country where the people have been far removed from civilisation as the Westerners know it, it does appear to be a near impossible task.

Unlikely scenario

If American military power is removed and the people who just a decade and a half ago defeated the other superpower, are left to their choice, their sole motivation against the Soviets having been the defence of  Islam and not democratic values, the democratic values that President Bush claims he wants to transplant are unlikely to take root.

I visited Kabul in 1990  to interview the then President Najibullah, a Soviet educated medical doctor who was installed by the Soviet Union against the teeth of opposition of the Afghan people. In Kabul, at that time there were a miniscule section of Afghans influenced by the Soviet Union such as women in Western dress. They were far removed from the traditional bearded Afghan on the street carryingold British rifles of World War II vintage  like walking sticks, wherever they went. Najibullah was hanged by the Taliban when they drove out the Soviets and all traces of Western influence such as women coming out in public disappeared. Two decades could not have changed the culture of the Afghan people very much and all the attempts to democratise Afghanistan will fail, unless the Americans want to stay back there for a long time - perhaps for  generations to bring in a new culture and democracy.

The Bush administration obviously knows all this very well. Triumph over the fundamentalist Taliban regime, eradication of the last pockets of resistance, installation of a pro American leader will not result in a pro Western stable regime being installed.

Strategic partnership

The US- Afghan 'strategic partnership' that was signed last week between President Bush and Afghan President Karzai in Washington, it appears, is meant for a long term US  presence in Afghanistan. The basic objective of this Strategic Partnership is for military purposes but the establishment of a pro US democracy as the West knows will take much more than military co-operation.

The US invasion of Afghanistan after 9/11 was ostensibly for the elimination of the  Islamic fundamentalist Taliban regime and the capture of Osama bin Laden who was believed to be in Afghanistan at that time. But this invasion - around 17,000 US troops now said to be in the country - also appears to fit into the radicalUS foreign policy of the George W. Bush Administration. This policy is a deviation from the lines of post World War II foreign policies of previous  administrations.

The Strategic Partnership  with Afghanistan appears to be an extension of President Bush's 'strategy of primacy.' A US political analyst has explained this strategy. 'Such a strategy involves preventing any single power or a combination of powers, from being able to challenge the US global primacy. The strategy involves controlling significant natural resources such as hydrocarbons, through political, economic pressure or through force.' 

In contrast to this Strategy of Primacy this analyst points out: 'The Clinton Administration adopted cooperative security which stresses multilateralism but also recommends coercive diplomacy and intervention. Selective engagement, stressing moderation, prudence and certain degree of  multilateralism was the earlier approach of George H. W. Bush Administration. But George W. Bush administration adopted primacy, a neo-imperial strategy.'

Product of hardliners

 This strategy has been the product of hardliners identified as neo conservatives who have been in alliance with pro-Israel Christian Fundamentalists since the '60s. Some of them are thetop dogs of the present administration such as Richard Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld. The neo conservatives see the United States as a sole superpower in a uni-polar international system where international law and international organisations are irrelevant. They contend that the United States must take advantageof this 'unipolar moment' to pursue a strategy of global hegemony.

It may not be a coincidence that following the signing of the US-Afghan Strategic Partnership agreement this month, Afghan President Karzai is scheduled to sign an agreement for a two billion dollar pipeline which will pass through his country taking natural gas from Turkmenistan to Pakistan and India. This proposed850 km pipeline had made the news earlier and  in 1998 been negotiated by the Taliban regime. An extremely powerful and influential US oil company, Unocal had made a very strong bid for it, but the project had to be abandoned following the US launching missile attacks on Afghanistan, after the bombing of its embassies in Africa by the al Qaeda  believed to have been headquartered in Afghanistan. This US oil company is likely to be awarded the contract and the pipeline will be patrolled by Afghan and the US troops. Unocal led consortium it is allegedis said to have very close links with key Bush administration officials.

Afghanistan is by itself a country with vast reserves of natural gas - the Soviet Union during its occupation estimating the reserves at five trillion cubic feet of natural gas and by the mid 1970's producing 275 million cubic feet of gas per day. But the greater importance of Afghanistan to the balance of energy and power from Central Asia is its geographical location as a transit route for oil and natural gas from Central Asia to the Arabian Sea and the Indian sub-continent. 

'Great new game'

Commentators and political analysts have noted that a new great game has come into play in Central Asia after the collapse of the Soviet Union between Russia, the United States, China, Iran and European nations for the Caspian Sea oil and gas reserves, which are said could only be rivaled by oil reserves in the Gulf region. The reserves are estimated at four trillion dollars. When the Soviet Union was in existence these reserves were out of bounds to Western nations but with its collapse and the emergence of independent republics such as Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan which have access to these reserves, this great new game commenced in earnest.

The play is not only for gas reserves but also for the paths of transit - gas and oil lines. While there is severe competition for such lines leading towards the West it has been realised that a pipe line to the east leading to Pakistan and on to the Arabian sea while connecting the Indian sub continent as well  holds great potential. And the path from the gas and oil reserves of Central Asia to the Arabian Sea must necessarily pass through Afghanistan. Thus, Afghanistan has come to be important to Western nations not only because of Taliban, bin Laden and Islamic fundamentalism but for oil pipelines.

President George Bush whose family business has been oil - even though he has been a failure in the business - has been a well known lobbyist in the oil industry together with key players  in his team such as Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld and Condoleeza Rice.

Elimination of Taliban and the democratisation of Afghanistan and putting this 'failed' state on its feet may be the objectives of the Bush administration, but there is also no doubt that they are also players in this new great game in Central Asia. A wag in a Gulf newspaper has said that if Osama bin Laden did not exist George Bush may have been inclined to invent one.

The deadly silence 

By Gamini Weerakoon 

The whistle has been finally blown on the silent watchers of the gross human tragedy of killing Tamil civilians. The New York based Human Rights Watch on Monday blasted theinternational community for its continuing silence despite the killing of over 200 Tamils and the abduction of over 900 children for war by the LTTE, since the inception of the ceasefire agreement in February 2001.

The Asia Director, Human Rights Watch, Brad Adams had not minced his words. "The only way to end this campaign of violence and impunity is to refuse to ignore it. These killings are a part of a concerted campaign to destroy opposition voices. The silence on the killings simply fuels more killings and leads to more impunity," he had said.

Despite the severe criticisms levelled by many critics on these powerful Western 'donor' nations and Japan for their silence despite the continuous killings, these nations maintain a silence ostensibly in the belief that any criticism of the LTTE may jeopardise the ceasefire agreement and result in the re-commencement of the conflict. But this silence and tolerance of gross violations of human rights that include abduction of children for war was in fact the continuation of the terrorists' war. To them, peace has become a means of continuation of their war.

Mixed priorities

This international community had got their priorities mixed up so much that at the Development Forum held recently, this group of countries while endorsing the joint mechanism for tsunami relief did not demand an end to the political killings and abductions. Human Rights Watch has also condemned the government for their failure to pursue these killers and called for the establishment of an independent and impartial commission of inquiry into the killings and abductions. It also notes the security concerns that must be addressed for such a commission to function.

Judging from the thick hide of the LTTE leadership, it is apparent that the only people they would listen to is this international community from whose countries the cash keeps flowing into their war chest. No other organisation - not even the UN - will have such an effective clout. It will be recalled that the LTTE decided on negotiations three years ago, only after these Western nations commenced their crackdown on terrorist organisations, with some countries even proscribing the Tigers.

Subsequent indulgence shown and even recognition as a political entity extended, with top diplomats journeying to the Wanni to hold audience with these deluded potentiates only resulted in a hardening of their attitudes and the continuation of their war on a low-key with the assassination of government intelligence operatives andTamils opposed to them.

The impotence of the government to check the unrestricted movement of LTTE operatives has also resulted in a grave deterioration of the security situation in the east,  Colombo and its suburbs - LTTE enclaves being established in places such as Wellawatte and Kotahena where notorious criminals can frequent or even go into hiding.

The importance of Newton

The Sunday Leader in its last issue reported on the "Mystery of missing Newton," alias Thamotharapillai Sivakumar alias 'November Whisky.' Newton is a high ranking member of the LTTE and has been in the first batch of the LTTE to be awarded a 'scholarship' by India along with eight others in those times when Tiger cubs were being nurtured by our neighbour. Newton trained to be a communications specialist and later specialised in explosives and had master-minded many explosions in Colombo through remote control whilebeing in Batticaloa. He is a suspect in the Pettah bomb blast that took the lives of 113 civilians, the Maradana bomb blast that accounted for 23 lives and the attack on the Kolonnawa oil installations that caused immense economic losses to the government and resulted in the death of 10 civilians. Newton was a rising star in the LTTE firmament and was next in line to LTTE's dreaded Intelligence Chief, Pottu Amman - wanted by the Indian government for the murder of Rajiv Gandhi.

The LTTE had reported him as 'missing' to his wife. He had apparently failed to return after being sent on a 'mission' and what the mission was is not known.

Why this top Tiger came down to Colombo is also not known. Some say that he had arrived to bump off Karuna - his one time buddy in Batticaloa, now turned renegade. Others say that he has been grabbed by government 'intelligence agents' and is being held hostage for the return of Inspector Jayadevan, described as a police intelligence operative who is alleged to have been abducted by the LTTE. No light has been shed on Newton's fate and what we could do in this Vesak period is to say: 'May all beings be well and happy.'

The vital question is how Newton was able to pass through military checkpoints and arrive in Colombo? According to some reports, there was a reward of Rs. 100,000 offered by the government for information leading to his whereabouts.

It does appear that under the provisions of the ceasefire agreement, any person in possession of a national identity card is able to breeze through Sri Lanka army check points to the south but not so through LTTE checkpoints to the north. Apart from taxes levied and other harassments and embarrassments even if a soldier steps out a few feet from the perimetre ofhis army camp, he is liable to be shot as has happened in the past.

Anarchy

On May 13, the Mt. Lavinia police had intercepted a van carrying five passengers, all of whom were found to be from Jaffna. They could not give valid reasons for the purpose of their visit. On questioning these persons, it had been revealed that 16 of them had arrived from Jaffna in two vehicles and that the LTTE had issued a permit for them to leave Jaffna. Eleven others had got off in Colombo before the five were apprehended. All the police could do was to produce the men before courts and they were remanded.

Of course, human rights activists will point out that freedom of unimpeded movement through one's country is a fundamental right. No doubt it is so, but the hard fact is that despite the much celebrated ceasefire agreement, innocent civilians are being killed in Colombo and its suburbs as well as in the north and east.

On May 15, a person identified as Kulendran Ravichandran was shot and grievously wounded supposedly by a LTTE pistol gang member at Periyamulla, Negombo. An attempt was made on the life of a retired Prisons Officer, V. Thangavelu on May 15 at Rajagiriya. Thangavelu escaped because the pistol aimed at him failed to fire. Thangavelu is described as a SLFP organiser for Jaffna.

When citizens are regularly killed on the streets and the government cannot bring the killers to justice, such a country is in or nearing a state of anarchy. More so when two parties of a coalition government are pulling in different directions and major issues such as law and order remain unresolved, and the Executive President despite her official term drawing to a close, appears to be determined to be President for life.

Amidst all this chaos, we do hope that it would be possible for the international community, with the assistance of the government, to form an independent commission to conduct impartial investigations into the killing of opponents of the LTTE.

Those bally erections! 

By Thelma

Darling Satty

As the great bhoomi putraya himself put it last week, it is better to grow together than not to grow at all. But will the red weevils listen? No. And the upshot? Zero..Zip growth, darling, and the Malay chap never said a truer word. Now, THERE'S a man even the sophisticated Thellie can admire freely. Semi-autocratic for two decades though he was. Look at his bally turf... and hmmm.....look at yours. In half the time you have done twice as much...damage that is. But not to worry, the masses are a forgiving lot. Trouble is, time is running out to apply the charm. Christmas 2006 is not too far away. And you know as well as I do that alas and alack, Christmas never lasts forever.

Having said that, what I'd really like to talk about is that spot of bother up in the Lovers' Leap, Swami Rock, and Crows' Island part of paradise.

I myself have a soft spot for the dear old place, having succumbed to romantic interludes at strategic intervals. I mean to say darling, who bally wouldn't? The place was created for romance. If you ask me, I'd like to erect a replica of Michelangelo's David in the town's square. But then, who ever asks me anything?

Did they have the courtesy to check with ole Thellie when they set about with cement bags and bricks to put up a statue of Buddha? A statue that is said to be inciting riots and all sorts of other beastly emotional pish-tosh in the bosoms of those who feel violated?No. And the upshot? The insurance company wins again. Your policy is never covered for riot and incendiary what not, take it from me. Alas, in the light of these provocative erections coming up everywhere, like it or not, the only people smiling these days are the insurance agents and their principals...and of course the pharmacies. Apothecaries all over the bally town, who due to pressure of work and late hours sampling their own medicine, have only been able to hear half the news and are jumping for joy. 'You want erections? we have just the thing for you,' they keep saying excitedly over crackling telephone lines.

 Darling, in my opinion, the only thing to do is to go about erecting huge monuments to yourself. That would stop this nonsense at once. I'm talking in the proportions of the Statue of Liberty, in other words - life size. You could even get Athuraliye thingumabob or the red weevil to weave a short poem for you on the similar lines of Emma Lazarus' 'Give me your tired, your poor.' Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free..etcetera etcetera...you could improve on Lazarus by etching in gold on the pedestal you stand on the immortal words - "give me your votes you poor sods or I shall forcibly take it from you...I'm tired of Ranil and of huddling together with the red thugs who pretend to be the voice of the masses; I am yearning to be in power all my life so that I can breathe free!"

Now, how's that for inspiration?

And as for Clinton, I hope you take my advice and not frighten the poor chap all over again. Remember the last time eh? You foisted the clammy company of the red weevils on him and the poor doodle couldn't yank himself out in time. Maybe Bill, who is travelling to the east will take a dekko in a constructively critical sort of  way, at these so called unauthorised erections and give his expert opinion on them. After all a whole nation stood transfixed as he gave his interpretation of an un- authorised erection. Who better to tell us lowly Paradisians all about it?

Meanwhile Ess Bee is still destined to belt out Jailhouse Rock in his spare time. Em squared might meet and Em squared might greet. The chap may even nibble a water cracker and sip some French champagne with you darling, but you are not called parvathai for nothing. My advice to Es Bee is sing in the shower if he will, belt out a few numbers in the quarry, croon a melody in the library but stick it out till the end. And the end as we know, is always nigh. And don't you know it darling. The end sure is getting closer by the bally minute.

Besides, Es Bee will burst out of the cage fighting fit and all that, what with all theexercise and scarcity of junk food, and before you know it, he's the new hero come to town.

I leave you for nonce with this profound thought.

Mahathir looked pretty good for his age what!

Toodle oo

Country to face salt shortage?

By Risidra Mendis 

The low production of salt from salterns around the country for the Yala season could result in a shortage of salt within the next few months if the required supply for the maha season is not produced.

The Hambantota saltern that produces around 75% of  the country's salt supply is yet to recover from the after-effects of the tsunami. The Hambantota saltern was badly affected by the tsunami while the bunds of the Palatupana and Bundala salterns were slightly damaged. However, the Puttalam saltern was unable to produce the required amount due to bad monsoon weather conditions.

Due to the supplies of salt running out at the Puttalam saltern, Lanka Salt in Hambantota had to supply an additional quantity to meet the country's needs.

Salt is produced twice a year in the country, during Yala and Maha seasons. However, it is the Maha season that produces the bulk of salt for the country, as the Yala season gets affected by the monsoon weather conditions from time to time.

Target not met

Speaking to The Sunday Leader, Executive Director, Lanka Salt Ltd., Haputhanthri Dharmasena said they are hoping to get around 70,000 metric tonnes of salt this year, adding that the targeted produce for the Yala season was not met. "At present we have received 5,000 metric tonnes of salt for the March and April season. During May and June we are hoping to break another 5,000 metric tonnes of salt from Palatupana. But in July, we are expecting a bulk of 50,000 metric tonnes of salt. Even if these targeted figures are not met by the company, we can still prevent a salt shortage in the country," Dharmasena said.

According to Dharmasena, as a precautionary measure Lanka Salt always stores a buffer quantity of salt for at least four and half months. However, Dharmasena said that he cannot rule out the possibility of a salt shortage in the country within the next few months.

"It is the vendors and salt buyers who will create a salt shortage in the country. When the vendors realise that we haven't met our required targets, they start stocking up the salt available. This will definitely lead to a salt crisis in the country," Dharmasena said.

According to Lanka Salt, the extent of the Maha saltern is 524 acres and is expected to produce 35,000 metric tonnes while the Koholankala saltern, which is situated on 539 acres is expected to produce 15,000 metric tonnes of salt per year. The extent of the Bundala saltern is 250 acres and it is expected to produce 12,000 metric tonnes, while the Palatupana saltern situated on 826 acres of land is expected to produce 6000 metric tonnes per year.

"In 2004, we targeted 70,000 metric tonnes but were able to produce only 55,000 metric tonnes. In 2003, and 2002 we produced around 20,000 to 30,000 metric tonnes. But in 2001, we were able to produce over 100,000 of metric tonnes of salt," Dharmasena said.

Yala season unpredictable

Meanwhile CEO, Puttalam Salt Ltd. R. Dayananda said their company's salterns were not affected by the tsunami. Puttalam Salt Ltd. produces 30,000 metric tonnes of salt for the Yala and Maha seasons each year.

According to Dayananda in 2004, Puttalam produced 25,000 metric tonnes for both seasons. The Yala season for 2004 produced 10,800 metric tonnes. However Puttalam was unable to produce any salt for this year's Yala season. The Yala season is always unpredictable as this is the rainy season. During the past 10 years we have been able to get a good harvest of salt for only five years," says Dayananda.

According to Dayananda, the company has shallow crystaliser tanks, deep crystaliser tanks and deep tanks to produce salt. "The shallow crystaliser tanks cannot produce salt during the rainy season as a water density of 25% is needed to produce salt. For the Yala season we managed to produce 6000 metric tonnes of salt using the deep crystaliser tanks and the deep tanks," Dayananda said.

Puttalam Salt Ltd. produces 75-100 metric tonnes of salt per annum for human consumption. Out of the total production per annum 50% is supplied as iodized salt to the market while the balance 50% is known as industrial salt.

In order to produce a stable flow of salt a number of factors are needed. A saltern should be situated in a place with easy access to sea water. The area should have low rainfall, consist of a dry climate, have a strong windy climate and bright sunlight during the year.