Politics

A dead end government

Inside Politics

By Suranimala 

With the JVP casting the die, it is back to the drawing boards for President Chandrika Kumaratunga, to map out strategy not just for the survival of her.....

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> JVP jumps ship as economy plummets

A dead end government

President Chandrika Kumaratunga - Back to the drawing boards

Inside Politics

By Suranimala 

With the JVP casting the die, it is back to the drawing boards for President Chandrika Kumaratunga, to map out strategy not just for the survival of her government but also the maintenance of law and order.

It was never a marriage made in heaven and from the very inception the alliance between the SLFP and JVP was beset with problems due to policy contradictions with a break up inevitable sooner than later.

To the JVP, the UPFA was a marriage of convenience consummated only for the purpose of destroying the SLFP from within and emerging as the alternative to the UNP, going so far as to tell their rank and file a truly Marxist government will be formed in 2014.

SLFP-JVP battle

Towards this end, the JVP systematically crippled the workings of government whilst infiltrating the SLFP grass-root base through the activities of its ministries, particularly the 1,000 tank rehabilitation project, with the intention of projecting the SLFP as an incompetent and weak party even in government.

Sensing this developing, given the reports reaching her from party organisers in several districts, President Kumaratunga decided to take the Marxists head on and over the passage of time, the battle intensified with both parties publicly trading charges even as the government came to a virtual standstill.

So much so, the JVP vetoed the President's plans not just to revive the peace process but also the economic reforms, thereby drying up the aid flow to the country and with each passing day, the country was slowly but surely sliding towards war, which the government was ill equipped to fight not only for the want of manpower and funds but also military hardware.

To make matters worse, the international community was also getting impatient with the indecisiveness on the part of Kumaratunga and strong messages were sent asking her to decide the course of action she wants to take with regard to the peace process one way or the other.

By this time the economy was taking a severe beating too with the cost of living soaring and the JVP began distancing itself from government, charting its own course, using the issue of the joint mechanism as a platform.

But Kumaratunga realised, abandoning the joint mechanism meant not only kissing good-bye to the millions of dollars pledged by way of aid but also any support to combat the LTTE in a war that would surely follow, where once again it is the SLFP that would have to take the biggest beating.

Taking the plunge

It was in this overall backdrop she decided to take the plunge and in the nick of time too with the four co chairs - USA, EU, Norway and Japan - urging Kumaratunga on Monday, June 13 to sign the agreement for the joint mechanism "immediately."

The no-nonsense statement, which rapped both the LTTE and the government for political killings, also adverted to the fact the spirit of the ceasefire agreement was violated due to the "persistent violence including assassinations of individuals affiliated with both parties."

It was the first time the co chairs, that usually passed strictures on the LTTE, was doing likewise to the government in what was clearly a sign of their impatience.

Given this situation, Kumaratunga had to decide between a backlash from the international community and the JVP's threat to pull out of the government if a public announcement was not made on the withdrawal of the joint mechanism proposal by June 15 and a conscious decision was taken to opt for funding and international support at the cost of the Marxists.

Kumaratunga thus decided finally to ask the JVP to take a hike but not before the SLFP, including Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse moved heaven and earth to subdue the Marxists albeit with little success.

For the JVP, given the economic crisis in government and the failure to fulfill the election pledges made, time had come to jump ship and the joint mechanism presented an ideal opportunity though the four members holding ministerial office had other ideas.

Accordingly, the politburo of the JVP met on Sunday, June 12, to take stock of the situation with the consensus being the party should quit government by June 16 if the President did not announce the rejection of the joint mechanism mooted by the international community.

JVP meeting

It was in fact JVP Leader, Somawansa Amarasinghe backed by General Secretary, Tilvin Silva who were the most vociferous, claiming the UPFA had completely lost the faith of the people given the rising cost of living and the failure to fulfill the promises made, necessitating the party's withdrawal from government.

"The problems will only intensify in the months to follow with the crisis over jobs for graduates also set to explode and we must act now to distance ourselves from the government," Amarasinghe said.

Amarasinghe added that as long as Chandrika Kumaratunga was president and leader of the SLFP, the JVP could never hold a position of significance in the alliance or the government.

The JVP Leader was also of the opinion that for their party, which had lost face before the people in the last year it was still part of the UPFA and a battle to save the motherland was by far the best path to recovery and regain public support.

Silva added the JHU was currently making a tremendous effort to win back the Sinhala-Buddhist vote. Silva said that Ven. Omalpe Sobitha Thero's fast unto death had diverted a great deal of media and public attention on to the JHU again.

According to Silva, if this were to continue, the JVP would lose its vote base and therefore all these factors need to be taken into account before a final decision was made.

It was then that Amarasinghe turned to JVP Propaganda Secretary, Wimal Weerawansa and inquired whether the President was definitely going to sign the joint mechanism agreement within the next few days.

Weerawansa dutifully responded that according to the reports he was getting, the President was definitely going to sign the agreement before June 17.

"Mangala and many other ministers give me details about the President's decisions. According to this information, the President is going to sign this on or before June 17," he said. Weerawansa then went on to enlighten the members gathered about the hardline stance the President was adopting with regard to the JVP.

Having listened to Weerawansa's input, Amarasinghe pointed out, if the President signed the mechanism on June 17 and the JVP moved to leave the alliance after that date, they would look like fools before the rest of the country. "If she is going to sign on June 17, we should leave on June 16 and start our fight against the mechanism," said Amarasinghe.

That way, the country may begin to have some faith in the JVP again, he added.

Strategy

However, Cultural Affairs and National Heritage Minister, Vijitha Herath was of a different mindset. He felt that it was more prudent to hold on to the ministerial portfolios and attend cabinet while simultaneously working to defeat the P-TOMS agreement.

"This is a good strategy. Leaving the government and battling this will prove difficult," Herath pointed out.

Fisheries Minister, Chandrasena Wijesinghe was of the same opinion. "The JVP has been able to do a lot of good work for our supporters via the four ministries. If we leave the government, all this comes to an end instantly. The battle we take on from that point will also be crucial. We will have to attack both sides. Our greatest disadvantage is that we will be leaving ourselves open for attack from the President as and when she pleases," he said.

Added Wijesinghe, "We have given our supporters many unofficial positions in our ministries by now. They do our work in their villages in return. If we leave the government now, all the work we have been doing in the past year will come to an abrupt halt."

But Amarasinghe and Silva were adamant and of the opinion the JVP should clearly state dates and times and quit not just the government but also the alliance.

UPFA Co-Convener, Nandana Gunatilleke also agreed with this position. He said that unless such an ultimatum was issued to the President, even at the last minute, it would deter her from going ahead and that would prevent her from going ahead with the joint mechanism.

Finally, when the meeting ended that evening, the JVP leadership had decided to quit the UPFA at midnight on June 15.

Interestingly, while the JVP was mapping out its exit strategy, the President was meeting with a TNA delegation comprising R. Sampanthan, Joseph Pararajasingham, Gajan Ponnambalam, K. Sivajilingam, Suresh Premachandran and Mavai Senathirajah at President's House to solicit support for the joint mechanism.

Giving details of the proposed mechanism, the President told the TNA she was not concerned about the protests launched by the JVP or the JHU and would proceed with it if TNA support was forthcoming.

TNA stance

The TNA for its part while welcoming the joint mechanism pointed out it was only a first step towards reviving talks and for the party to extend its support to the government much more must be done in furtherance of the peace process.

However, the TNA did say it would stand by the government on the issue of the joint mechanism and ensure the JVP's exist will not hinder the implementation of the proposal.

And the following day, Monday, June 13, the SLFP parliamentary group meeting took place at the President's House for which Kumaratunga walked in 45 minutes late, providing an opportunity for national list MP, Mervyn Silva to keep the members entertained with his own brand of humour.

Silva also used the occasion to pass around a list among the MPs requesting them to put down how many monks they could bring to the Viharamahadevi Park for an Adhistana Pooja as directed by the President with the aim of countering the JVP and JHU.

Whilst Silva was doing his rounds, the President walked in and immediately got the proceedings underway, holding forth for one hour and 45 minutes on the difficulties of working with the JVP and the importance of the joint mechanism to safeguard the SLFP's future.

Both the government and the country, Kumaratunga said, were precariously placed and attributed this status to a deliberate campaign by the JVP at destablisation.

"I was not happy at all with forming an alliance with the JVP because of their racist policies but some of our members were impatient to form a government and we have to now pay a heavy price for that folly," Kumaratunga said.

Continuing, the President said the JVP had a murderous past during which thousands of SLFPers were killed and added the Marxists were now attempting to destroy the SLFP from within.

"They killed our people so brutally. They are such animals that they killed my husband in cold blood because he disagreed with their policies. I formed an alliance with such a party despite the entire world advising me against it because of pressure by some of our own senior members. I was advised the JVP would swallow the SLFP and ensure that their power base alone would grow but I joined hands with the murderous JVP to save the country from ruin at the hands of the UNP," Kumaratunga added.

Not stopping at that, the President also told her MPs it was the JVP that came to the President's House and harangued her to dissolve parliament and derail the peace talks before negotiations commenced on the ISGA.

Added Kumaratunga, "These people demanded that I dissolve parliament. Our people were also backing them. I constantly told all of them that we should be a little more patient. I told them that if we acted too fast, we would soon get stuck somewhere down the line. But they insisted that they wanted an election immediately. So I accepted all this, took away the ministries and dissolved parliament."

President lashes out at JVP

Speaking of the joint mechanism, the President said that the SLFP had never been a party with racist principles and that she was not willing to allow it to be dragged down as one.

"Today these JVPers are conspiring against me and are going around condemning my family. I got a mandate in 1999. I got that mandate to bring peace to the country. I don't care who shouts and who protests, I am definitely signing this agreement," she added.

By this time, Kumaratunga was visibly angry and the SLFP MPs merely looked at one another. Everyone was careful not to say a word contrary to what she was saying. But the President's attention was focused on one of the chief kapuwas of the UPFA marriage - her brother and Tourism Minister, Anura Bandaranaike.

But during the President's entire tirade, Bandaranaike was in a deep slumber. Even as Premier Mahinda Rajapakse took the chair with the President, Bandaranaike was yawning away. Ignoring this completely, Kumaratunga continued.

"From the day this government came into power, the JVP's actions have ruined us. As far as I know, this is the weakest government that has ever come to power in this country. I say this with reasons. In the last year, the JVP didn't let us do a single thing properly. Staying inside the government, they were busy chasing off investors coming into the country. If we try to do something, they come to cabinet and hold protests and boycott and go out and say various things to the newspapers and stir up the masses. As a result, nothing has happened in the last year," she continued.

Kumaratunga was also critical of the four ministries the JVP were given. "They made tanks. They said they made boats. I have studied all these matters well. How they put JVPers in charge of the tank committees and robbed left right and centre will soon come to light. I will not put one step back in fear of them. I put this proposal for the mechanism to the party at the SLFP convention and got its approval. I held a special cabinet meeting and discussed it and got approval. So none of us can go here and there and conspire against the signing of the joint mechanism," said the President.

Challenge

She then invited any of the MPs who opposed the proposed structure to rise and speak. As expected, none of them rose to the challenge. They knew that to accept such a challenge was to effectively end their political career, given the President's frame of mind.  The silence in her audience led the President to soften her words somewhat.

"If there is anyone here who is opposed to the mechanism, just say so. Then I will summon the central committee again and take a decision," she said. Still no one uttered a word. To conclude her statement, Kumaratunga emphasised the need to conduct a public awareness campaign on the mechanism.

Finally, one voice broke through the silence that pervaded after the President's speech. "I accept the mechanism proposal 100%. The North Central Provincial Council extends its fullest support to this. We will do everything we can for the party and the President," announced Chief Minister, North Central Province, Berty Premalal Dissanayake.

Digressing somewhat soon after making this statement he added, "Madam President, according to my policies, I am totally against the JVP. I do politics in my province going totally against the JVP. But one year ago, whether we liked it or not, we allied with the JVP. That alliance became a government. After a government is formed, we can't be exchanging words and fighting each other. We can't just split all of a sudden either. So I am asking that we try to go the rest of this journey after discussing this with the JVP and getting them involved."

Shot back the President, "How much Mangala, Lakshman Kadirgamar and I told them to reach a compromise. They are not interested in that. All they want is to increase their vote base."

Mangala's views

Undeterred by Kumaratunga's belligerence, up went Minister Mangala Samaraweera. All eyes were on the Minister, given his recent power struggle with the President over his affiliations to the JVP.

Samaraweera maintained that he had no objection to the joint mechanism, adding that he had always supported the party and the President in efforts to bring about peace. He also reminded all those gathered there that it was he who had spearheaded the Sudu Nelum campaign as well. Like Dissanayake, Samaraweera too changed tack halfway through his speech.

"Even if the joint mechanism is essential for the country, if it means that it will cause the collapse of the alliance, the mechanism is not necessary. We walked the streets and shed our blood, sweat and tears to form this alliance. Somehow we formed a government. If the government is going to fall because of it, we don't need a joint mechanism," said Samaraweera.

Even as he said this, the President asked him, "Mangala, haven't you also now adopted a racist and nationalist position?"

Responded Samaraweera, "See, this is the problem. Nobody needs the situation that will arise from signing this agreement. If we sign this agreement, the UNP is going to win back everything in the upcoming pradeshiya sabha polls. Not stopping at that, we will lose the presidential election also. If by you signing this agreement, Madam, a UNP president is born, a UNP government comes to power and UNP pradeshiya sabhas are created, not a single Sri Lankan will be in favour of the mechanism."

"I can't accept that position. If we sign this, the money will come in. We will work with that money. If we work for the people, we will win votes," replied Kumaratunga.

This led to an exchange of heated words between the two and Samaraweera finally said that he was not ready to discuss the matter any further.

Said Samaraweera in conclusion, "You are the party leader. You are the leader of this country. You said that no matter who says what, you will go ahead and sign the agreement. That is a statement you should not make, Madam. It disappointed me. Before making any decision, a head of state must think about the country, the government and the party. This is the duty of a head of state."

At these words the President became extremely angry and muttered something in her temper that nobody present could quite catch on to.

SLFP views

Rising next was Governor Kingsley Wickramaratne. "Isn't it wise to resolve this problem now before it goes any further?" he asked.

Furious by this time the President snapped, "Kingsley, are you mad? Just sit down!" Taken aback, Wickramaratne quickly took his seat.

Next came Western Province Governor, Alawi Moulana followed by SLFP General Secretary, Maithripala Sirisena. He reminded the members of the decisions the party made in support of the joint mechanism. Sirisena also told them the President had decided to conduct a campaign to support the mechanism throughout the country.

Backing him up was Deputy Minister Dilan Perera. "A few of my deputy ministerial colleagues and myself are publicly supportive of the President and the joint mechanism. We are in no way ready to back down from this position either. If the President makes a decision not to sign the agreement, I will stop supporting the mechanism. Ever since I joined this party, I have not gone against its leadership. That is how I will be in the future as well. The President just said that if someone here opposed the structure, she would put it back to the central committee. But I am against this," Perera said.

Turning to Mervyn Silva at this point, President Kumaratunga asked how the plans for the Poojawa were proceeding.

"Now Mervyn, how many monks can you bring to Viharamahadevi Park for the ceremony?" she asked.

Rising from his seat and pausing painstakingly over his words, Silva replied, "Madam President, by now according to the list not even 1,000."

"But how can we have this ceremony without even a 1,000 priests?" retorted the President. "This won't work. Bring the monks to the BMICH and give them a dhana and give a speech," she added. Silva readily agreed.

Concluding the session thereafter the President rose to leave only to be surrounded by the MPs who were firing a volley of questions.

With an emotion filled voice the President said the correctness of her decision would be seen by the members before long but that she may not be around to see their regrets.

"These are my last days"

And turning to Samurdhi Minister, Pavithra Wanniarachchi, the President said, "Pavithra, these are my last days. These fools don't understand that. If I don't sign this agreement, the SLFP is finished. These JVPers are swallowing up our people. Our people can't understand what I am saying. One of these days I will tell them to do whatever they want and leave all this and go."

What the President did not realise was that some senior SLFPers were banking on just such a scenario, leaving Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse to strike a deal with the JVP and continue in government after Kumaratunga's exit.

One strategy worked out in this regard was to get the joint mechanism proposal presented in parliament and have it defeated, thus compelling the President to call it quits. (See Pot Shots on page 14)

Thus, while cloak and dagger politics continue in the SLFP, the government for all purposes is a lame duck and with the exit of the JVP is now not in a position to even pass a simple piece of legislation without the support of the UNP.

And being at the mercy of the UNP is not something Kumaratunga will relish, which would necessarily mean a general election sooner than later.

JVP jumps ship as economy plummets

Architects of the economic uncertainty, President Chandrika Kumaratunga and Somawansa Amarasinghe

By Mandana Ismail Abeywickrema

The impact of the current political uncertainties and a minority government ruling the country, is reverberating in the country's economy with the immediate signing of the joint mechanism being the only saving grace.

The withdrawal of the UPFA government's main coalition partner - the JVP-showed an instant impact on the Colombo bourse, as its turnover dipped to a six month low of Rs. 71.4 million. Inactivity in the market was due to investors staying away from the market due to the chaotic political scenario.

The UPFA honeymoon, which began with much pomp and pageantry and lasted for over 14 months, came to an abrupt end, when the JVP walked out of the government last Thursday.

The JVP's opposition to the proposed joint mechanism between the government and the LTTE, has also resulted in a number of protest campaigns taking place all over the island. The JVP backedInter-University Students' Union and trade unions staged protest campaigns against the joint mechanism last week, creating an air of uncertainty in the country.

Now, with the JVP sitting in the opposition as an independent party, the chances are that protests against the joint mechanism would be intensified. The adverse impact on the economy due to such protests, would be the  labour unrest created by the agitating trade unions, which would result in the crippling of state activities.

Protests and agitations

Protests and agitations over the last two weeks saw the police riot squads taking to the streets, firing tear gas and closing roads in the heart of the city.   The result - disorganisation of the life of the people and the economy, and the country virtually  coming to a standstill.

The country's already skewed economy seems to be the last thing on the JVP's mind. JVP Leader Somawansa Amarasinghe addressing a media conference last Thursday, speaking of the plight of the economy due to the political unrest created by his party's defection from the government,as ironic as it is said, that one has to first think of the country before the economy. "An economy can be there only if there is a country, and if the country is divided there can be no economy as there will be two economies to look into," he said.

Peace for stability

Amarasinghe also stressed  the need for peace, to bring about prosperity. "There should be peace for prosperity, and for that the LTTE has to enter the democratic mainstream," he said, adding "If there is democracy, equality and peace, there could be prosperity."

According to President Chandrika Kumaratunga, the joint mechanism is a first step towards restarting the peace process, which is in a stalemate. Although the JVP is no longer a part of the alliance government, the government has expressed confidence in signing the joint mechanism.

However, amidst chaos, the only sign of business confidence came with the President's resolve to sign the joint mechanism at any cost. This hope has strengthened the confidence of the business community, as  demonstrated by the market  reaction, and volatility.    HNB Stock Analyst, Hasitha Premaratne observed that the President's positive message of signing the joint mechanism has left some investor confidence amidst political uncertainties.

Although the signing of the agreement has been pushed back a week or two , the President's  determination has a positive outcome and in the end would help the economy get back on track.

Premaratne noted that signing the agreement played a key role in the country's economy on the long term, as the joint mechanism was the stepping stone to bringing about a permanent solution to the ethnic crisis and the resultant aid flow, would strengthen the country's macro economy.

He explained that there would not be a change in government if the UPFA could muster the support of the main opposition, the UNP and the TNA.

No impact

Premaratne felt that the withdrawal of the JVP would have a salutary effect on the economy, as the Marxists were anyway opposed to the joint mechanism which was intended to bring in peace and stability to the country, and the government's plan to restructure public enterprises.

"JVP's defection doesn't mean much as they were anyway against the joint mechanism and the restructuring of the CEB and the CPC," he said.

The signing of the joint mechanism, according to Premaratne would be the first step in building investor confidence as it would be a clear indication of the government's commitment to a lasting peace.

However, Premaratne said the economic woes of the government would not end there.

He said,  the government would have to pay attention to strengthening therupee and address the issue of the escalating level of inflation, which by end June is expected to reach a 12 month average of 12.9%.

Remedial action

The exchange rate experienced some volatility mid last week, and to address the issue, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) had to intervene and buy dollars through state banks to contain the situation.

Although the increasing global fuel prices have been the key contributory factor in the rising level of inflation, the government is in a position to take several remedial steps to arrest this situation.

According to Premaratne, the state could retire Treasury bonds and absorb the excess liquidity and also control credit growth.

The CBSL last week increased its interest rates by 50 basis points in keeping with the rising level of inflation.

Premaratne pointed out that with a 100 basis point increase in interest rates within the next three months, the exchange rate against the dollar would be strengthened between 99-100, and keeping the key monetary indicators inthe black, would drive the economy on a positive direction.

Donors' concern

However, long term peace would be the only chance for economic growth.

The donors have also expressed concern over the delay in signing the joint mechanism, which is expected to launch  tsunami rehabilitation work in the north and east.

They have also stated that the foreign aid flow to the country would depend on the finalisation of the joint mechanism between the government and the LTTE (See box).

Withdrawal of the joint mechanism proposal or the no-signing of it, will result in the country losing the much needed aid for the development of tsunami devastated areas as well as other development projects.

The much talked of  US$ 3 billion donor aid pledged at the Kandy donor parley last month would then remain unrealied pledges.

The coming three months are expected to be ruled by political uncertainty, a volatile stock market and investors on an unsure footing, but the right decisions at the right time could help pull the country from falling into a deeper economic abyss.