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Unpredictable days
ahead
UN
Special Envoy Allan Rock, much
in the news, last week told a
Canadian newspaper that there
was smear campaign against
him, orchestrated by
government spokesmen and local
media. He said that he was
being painted as a Tiger
sympathiser. The above
picture, posted in its
website, the Defence Ministry
said was proof of such
allegations. It said that the
picture showed Rock with Tiger
sympathisers. Rock has denied
any knowledge of the others in
the picture and also said that
the publicity campaign in Sri
Lanka was unlikely to
influence his report to the UN
Security Council Working
Committee, due February 15 --
Photo
courtesy: defence.lk |

By
Amantha Perera
After a month of fighting, the relative calm last week
was devilish.
Government forces had
gotten down to consolidating newly gained
areas from Mankerni to Serunuwara.
Additional troops had been brought in from
Batticaloa and a police station too has
been set up. The military in the area say
that if security can be guaranteed, then
resettlement might not be a big issue.
They said that most of the
public buildings like the two hospitals in
Vaharai and Ichchilampathu remain more or
less undamaged and can be put to use, so
is the case with most of the school
buildings. They are also satisfied with
the road network and say that they can
start a bus service as soon as
resettlement begins.
One of the main concerns
has been mines, which forces say litter
the area. The Tigers however have denied
that they spattered Vaharai and its
environs with landmines.
Landmines
"There were only a
few hours between the time when civilians
fled Vaharai area and the LTTE pulled back
from Vaharai. Any civilian who was in
Vaharai at that time will attest to the
fact that no mines were laid anywhere near
their homes. Within the few hours before
the LTTE pulled back, it is impossible to
lay that many mines which would engage the
Sri Lankan military in a mine clearance
operation," the Tigers said.
The army has deployed
special teams to clear the mines since the
take over.
The Tigers were quiet,
except for three incidents - one at the
Colombo harbour, in Ervaur in Batticaloa
and another incident that took place deep
in Tiger held areas along the
Parthana-Mullaitivu road.
The claymore was once
again used in Batticaloa on January 31- on
a bus carrying troops and policemen and 12
were killed. Soon after the attack more
than 50 persons were detained by the armed
forces and police for questioning.
Troop transporters have
been target in the stretch of road where
the attack took place. Mid last year the
army was very apprehensive that the troop
transporters referred to as the Liberty
buses came under attack after a bus
carrying a group of LTTErs was attacked
between Punnani and Valachchennai.
Attacks
The attack was not a
success and only one female Tiger was
injured. However thereafter there was
evidence that transporters were a target.
Troops would clear the road every morning,
sometimes through very redumentry devices
like probing
the sides of the roads with metal
hooks.
Now the claymore has made
a comeback. It was the first major attack
in the east after the fall of Vaharai. And
security forces in the area are now
nervous that last week's claymore would
not be the last.
The Tigers also lost a
senior cadre named Suresh Kumar in the
Vishvamadu area, east of Pranthan. Details
of the death have not been forthcoming,
the Defence Ministry stated in its website
on January 30 evening.
Senior Tiger killed
"Intelligence sources
confirmed that 10 LTTE cadres including a
senior LTTE leader were killed due to the
explosion that took place at Vishvamadu in
Mullaitivu on Saturday, January 27,"
the Defence Ministry website said.
"According to the
LTTE radio transmission, it is revealed
that Nawarathnaraja Suresh Kumar alias
Malarawan was the senior LTTE leader who
was killed due to this explosion and he
held the rank of 'Lt. Col' in the LTTE
outfit. It is further revealed that
another nine LTTE cadres of the 'Auxiliary
Force' including a senior technician were
also killed in this incident," it
said.
According to the Karuna
group, Kumar headed the explosives unit of
the Sea Tigers and nine more Tigers died
in the incident. The Tigers have said that
the incident was an accident but no other
details have been made available.
Tigers regrouping
The Tigers have also been
regrouping in the Toppigala area and
several thousand civilians have already
fled the area, fearing that if they remain
they might get caught in the fighting.
The ceasefire monitors who
have gone back to their district bases
still say that they have security issues.
Monitors say that violence has been
increasing and that they find the security
situation still unpredictable.
"It is not like we
are a target, but we can be at the wrong
place at the wrong time,"
Spokesperson Thorffinur Omarsson said.
Security for monitors
The monitors raised the
issue of security when they met with the
LTTE in Kilinochchi last week. Both the
government and the Tigers have been giving
security guarantees. "We appreciate
that," Omarsson said.
Another area of concern
has been Vavuniya, where violence has been
on the increase. The army also admitted
that violence has been on the rise in
Vavuniya. The military also said that
there was regrouping of the Tigers in the
Kilinochchi, something the SLMM said at
the beginning of the year.
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Containment is the key -
Economist
The government last week
urged donors to disconnect the fight
against the Tigers and economic
development. At the recently
concluded donor meeting, government
representatives from President
Mahinda Rajapakse downwards said
that aid should not be tied to any
conditions, especially those tied to
progress at negotiations.
While some economists have
warned that such an approach could
backfire, others say containment
would be the key element.
"Yes, I think the
government can move ahead on
economic development in other parts
of the country, barring the north
east, if it could prevent attacks on
economic targets outside the north
east, particularly in the Western
Province. The development of the
north east largely depends on
finding a durable solution to the
protracted civil conflict and not on
a piecemeal agreement like the one
signed in February 2002,"
Economist Muttukrishna Sarvananthan
told The Sunday Leader.
He also feels that despite
hard talk from the likes of Germany,
the likelihood a mass scale aid
freeze was very unlikely.
"I doubt the donors
would hold back funds. The Japanese
normally do not attach conditions to
aid, either on economic
liberalisation reform issues or on
the peace front. Americans are also
unlikely to stop aid unless the
government goes back on its promise
to present a devolution package to
address the legitimate grievances of
the Tamil and Muslim communities in
the north and east soon, most
probably before the mid of this
year."
Germany accounts for only
3% of all annual aid and Europe as a
whole only 10%, making any pressure
minimal as long as others don't toe
the same line. However, an
escalating conflict could add to the
woes of an economy that is already
feeling the pinch due to faulty
policies.
"The short term
economic outlook is precarious as I
have argued in the most recent
paper. However, the precarious
economic situation is not primarily
due to the stalled peace process,
but more due to the wrong economic
policies of the Mahinda Chinthana,"
Sarvanan-than said.
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