The cross-over drama that has destabilised the government

Anura ducks President's calls

Mangala removed as FM for highlighting human rights violations

Indian PM tells govt. to submit peace proposals by end Feb.

Chandrika pacifies disgruntled SLFP ministers

Patel pours cold water on US$ 9 billion aid claim

While the jumbo cabinet sworn in by President Mahinda Rajapakse last week caused ripples in the SLFP leading to battle lines being drawn for an inevitable power struggle within government, the international community urged the new administration to waste no time in forwarding a concrete proposal to address the ethnic issue since it now boasted of a stable majority in parliament.

When the President on the advice of his brother and Presidential Advisor Basil Rajapakse decided to accommodate UNP crossers-over, the SLMC and the JHU in government, little did he realise a hornet's nest was being stirred, which could well result in a poisonous sting for his administration and hardly had the dust settled over the swearing in ceremony when the infighting commenced.

Battles

For the UNP, though the defections were a momentary set back, the cross-over drama helped clear the party of the rebel group and end the infighting which was holding it back from performing as an effective opposition.

Thus in one fell stroke the rebels landed on President Rajapakse's lap and it was the turn of the UNP to sit back and enjoy the unfolding battles within the government with none other than Ports Minister Mangala Samaraweera leading the way.

Even before Sunday's ceremony, Samaraweera fired a warning salvo to the President, informing him in writing that the accommodation of UNP crossers-over would be to the detriment of the SLFP.

Not only did he oppose the cross-over move in his letter, but also took swipes at the Presidential advisors, accusing them of interfering in tenders of practically every ministry, which according to Samaraweera was causing frustration among the ministers.

What the public did not know was that Samaraweera's salvo was not the first one fired by the Minister, having on at least three other occasions written to the President on the dangerous path the government was treading, particularly in relation to human rights.

Interestingly, after one particularly hostile meeting Samaraweera had with the President, Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapakse, President's Secretary Lalith Weeratunga and Presidential Advisor Basil Rajapakse on the deteriorating human rights situation in the country, he sent a stinging letter making serious accusations on human rights violations and the scant respect shown to international humanitarian law, issues which may well come to haunt the Rajapakse family in the future not just locally but also internationally.

Volcano

That letter, which will soon become public, no doubt will not only show how deep rooted the crisis in government is, but also why Samaraweera was eventually stripped of the Foreign Ministry portfolio. Samaraweera had without any sugar coating told the President why it was difficult to defend the government's human rights record internationally without losing all credibility.

The UNP rebels of course did not know they were entering a government which was akin to a volcano waiting to erupt and went in merrily, little realising they were making a significant contribution to expedite the process and expedite it they did.

The President for his part was quite oblivious to what was happening and soon after the swearing in ceremony, boasted to Minister Samaraweera that he was at his peak now, which was soon to become a joke among ministers that he was at the peak of his unpopularity among the SLFP ministers.

Thus, no sooner the swearing in ceremony was over, former President Chandrika Kumaratunga was to personally telephone several ministers and sympathise with them for the down-grading of their positions to accommodate the UNP MPs, while a group hurriedly gathered at Minister Samaraweera's residence to take stock of the situation. Among those present were Anura Bandaranaike, Arumugam Thondaman, A.L.M. Athaullah and Sripathi Sooriyaarachchi.

Strategy

Here the members took stock of the situation and decided to meet again with a view to working out a strategy to protect the interests of the SLFP and that of the government from the UNP crossers-over.

In a separate move, a series of discussions were also lined up with the JVP to work out a strategy that will checkmate the UNP crossers-over and prevent the Rajapakse brothers from running the government to the exclusion of all else.

Signs of this development were seen on Thursday, when JVP Leader Somawansa Amarasinghe opened fire on the government and needled the President on taking into government those who accused him of corruption on the 'Helping Hambantota' case. Amarasinghe also charged that the President has sworn in as ministers those from the UNP who are under probe by the Parliamentary Committee on Public Enterprises (COPE).

In effect, the case the JVP was building up was that by swearing into cabinet those UNP members who accused the President of corruption on the 'Helping Hamban-tota' case, he had effectively accepted their allegations.

By Monday, however, the President got wind of the rising dissension in government and was to telephone business tycoon Harry Jayewardena and urge him to use his good offices with Bandaranaike and persuade him not to deal with Samaraweera.

The President told Jayewardena to tell Bandaranaike, he would look after him and not to visit Samaraweera's residence since the Ports Minister was engaged in a conspiracy against him and the government.

Messenger

And the good messenger he is, the very next Tuesday morning, Jayewardena conveyed the message to Bandaranaike, who went ballistic.

"How dare anyone tell me whom I should visit? Mangala is a cabinet colleague of mine appointed by Mahinda himself. Please tell him I will continue to visit Mangala's home. It is not as if I am visiting Pirapaharan," Bandaranaike thundered.

And to sent a signal he meant business, that very night Bandaranaike and a group of 14 ministers once again met at Samaraweera's residence to discuss the unfolding political drama.

Interestingly, businessman A.J.M. Muzammil was to later meet Harry Jayewardena at a wedding reception and inquired whether he did in fact receive a call from the President and whether the exclusive story in The Morning Leader was correct and was told it was absolutely correct.

By this time, the President too had come to realise his political manoeuvre may have had negative repercussions and chose  as a public relations exercise to telephone Human Rights Minister Mahinda Samarasinghe, who was widely tipped to get the Foreign Ministry portfolio, to wish him for his birthday.

In fact, Minister Samaraweera had told Samarasinghe that if he was to be stripped of the Foreign Ministry portfolio, the Human Rights Minister would be the most suitable to succeed him and soon after the reshuffle, both Anura Bandaranaike and Dinesh Gunawardena too had walked upto Samarasinghe and expressed disappointment, he was not appointed as foreign minister. The ministers in government were particularly angry over the appointment of Rohitha Bogollagama whom they believed was rewarded for giving the government a bad name by all his antics and high spending. That it appeared as in the case of Sajin Vass Gunawardena was an asset in the President's books.

Thus, it was a deeply disappointed Samarasinghe who picked up the telephone when the President called to wish him that Tuesday morning and gave vent to his feelings, which was not taken too kindly by Rajapakse.

Rajapakse attempted to pacify Samarasinghe by stating he cannot find a more competent minister to deal with the issue of human rights, a fact acknowledged by the diplomatic community as well, but it was of little solace to a Minister who was not rewarded for his good work.

Thus Samarasinghe held his own and the conversation ended after a long gap of silence from both ends and the President no doubt realised the simmering discontent in government was much more than a storm in a tea cup and decided to engage in yet another public relations exercise.

Accordingly, that very night, at around 11 p.m., Rajapakse walked into Samarasinghe's residence together with his wife Shiranthi to personally wish the Minister the very best and ask for the morning's conversation to be forgotten.

Pacifying Samaraweera

Being the good host he is, Samarasinghe agreed to do so but no doubt realised, the President's gesture was no more than offering a toothy grin to a hungry man. Samarasinghe for all purposes will continue as Human Rights Minister as Bogollagama wings away from India to Germany as the brand new Foreign Minister, a job earlier promised to Samarasinghe.

Likewise, the President also repeatedly telephoned Bandaranaike on Thursday and Friday but was told by the Minister's aides that he was too busy to take Rajapakse's call.

When an official from Temple Trees asked whether Bandaranaike could not be disturbed to answer a call from the President, he was told the Minister could not be disturbed.

But what came as a real shocker to the President Tuesday evening was a comment made by SLFP General Secretary and Agriculture Minister Maithripala Sirisena who on assuming duties at his Ministry criticised the size of the jumbo cabinet, which is the world's largest, and said he felt ashamed to call himself a minister.

Now, it was not just the size of the cabinet that was niggling Sirisena but being deprived of the irrigation portfolio, which was given to the President's brother, Chamal Rajapakse.

It was just two days before the reshuffle that the multimillion dollar Moragahakanda Project was inaugurated by the President with Sirisena by his side and just 48 hours later, the entire project was going to a ministry under the President's brother and Sirisena was nonplussed.

Thus, even for the die-hard loyalists, it was slowly but surely beginning to dawn that this was a government of the Rajapakses, by the Rajapakses, for the Rajapakses and that was the backdrop in which Sirisena's comments came.

And in a bid to diffuse the crisis, the President decided to cancel the first ever cabinet meeting of the new ministers and work with Secretary Lalith Weeratunga to appease the ministers by allocating more subjects to the SLFP members in the Gazette notification.

But that was the least of President Rajapakse's problems, who having boasted he had through the cross-over move secured a parliamentary majority, was now told by the international community to deliver on the peace package.

Up until then, the standard excuse the President used before the international community was that the JVP blocked his every move on the peace front.

That excuse he no longer could use after the MoU with the UNP was signed, and then it was Ranil Wickremesinghe who was accused of dragging his feet.

But now with the cross-overs, that excuse too was no longer valid, more so with the likes of G.L. Peiris telling the diplomatic community they joined the government to forge ahead with the peace process.

A taste of this the government got when Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickremanayake met Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Monday, January 29, where the importance of submitting a political package to resolve the ethnic crisis was stressed.

Peace process

The Indian Prime Minister said the government no longer had excuses to delay the political package since it not only had a majority in parliament but also the support of the UNP crossers-over, who supported maximum devolution of power.

Not stopping at that, the Indian Prime Minister said he expects the government to submit the political package by end February, a message Wickremanayake conveyed to President Rajapakse from New Delhi over the telephone.

The very next day, Tuesday, January 30, the Indian Prime Minister reiterated his position at a meeting with Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe where the situation in Sri Lanka was discussed at length.

Initially, Manmohan Singh and Wickremesinghe had a one-to-one meeting, following which a more detailed discussion was had where UNP MPs Ravi Karunanayake, Lakshman Kiriella and Sajith Premadasa were also present. The Indian team included National Security Advisor N.K. Narayanan, Secretary, External Affairs Minister, Shiv Shankar Menon and Senior Foreign Ministry official, Mohan Kumar.

It is at this meeting, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh revealed to the opposition that he told the Sri Lankan Premier, Ratnasiri Wickremanayake, India hoped the government will forward a set of proposals to resolve the ethnic crisis by end February, a position the UNP Leader agreed with.

At the outset, the Indian Premier was to ask the UNP team how they saw the situation in the country given the latest developments and it was Karunanayake who responded stating President Rajapakse had missed a golden opportunity to resolve the issues confronting the country by jettisoning the MoU with Wickremesinghe.

Said Manmohan Singh, "I told your Prime Minister yesterday that since the government now has a majority in parliament, what the President promised us in November must be honoured. That is to introduce the political package."

With that said, the Indian Premier inquired what the UNP thought of the north east de-merger and once again the blame to honour the provisions in the Indo-Lanka Agreement for which former Indian Premier Rajiv Gandhi sacrificed his life was placed fairly and squarely on Rajapakse's shoulders.

The UNP team said it was a clear cut case of the government doing too little too late with the specific objective of sabotaging the peace process.

"This had nothing to do with the LTTE but the Tamil people getting their political rights and the government de-merged the provinces for political purposes," the UNPers said.

Interjected Wickremesinghe - "It was part of agreement with Rajiv Gandhi and the UNP is committed to that and now that the government has a majority in parliament, they can introduce the necessary legislation to implement it. The government's excuse earlier was that the JVP was a stumbling block. That is no longer the case. Now that the JVP is out, the government can take steps to rectify it. The UNP's sincerity to the process will be seen at that time."

Indian stance

Nodding his head, the Indian Premier said the merger was an integral part of the solution and the starting point of the peace process.

Continuing, Manmohan said, if the merger is not there, it would raise serious questions on the government's sincerity to the process and added India expects the peace proposals to be submitted before end February.

As the discussion progressed, questions were also raised on the role of the Karuna group and attempts to use the LTTE rebel leader in the Eastern Province to take over the political leadership.

Such a move, it was said, would be counter-productive with National Security Advisor Narayanan opining that they were concerned about it and was one of the reasons India would like to see a peaceful resolution of the merger issue.

Further, the ongoing military offensives in the east, the attempts by the government to whip up war hysteria and the public support for it too were discussed and the UNP Leader said, while any military success must be welcomed, an objective look must be taken on the strategic value of the exercise.

He said even during the UNP government prior to 1994, the entire east was under security forces control but the LTTE used the opportunity to intensify the war  in the north and the rest of the country.

Not disagreeing, the Indian team said the LTTE's strategic withdrawal from the east would result in greater problems in the north with an escalation of hostilities whilst resorting to guerrilla tactics in the east.

Chipping in at this stage was Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon who said the rights of the Tamil and Muslim people must also be looked at in such a scenario.

Asked Manmohan Singh - "What is the position of the Development Forum? I heard it is being linked to the peace process. Do you think such a linkage will be of any use?"

Not wanting to let the country down on this issue, the UNP team said development aid will be crucial for the country and such a linkage will be of great concern to the government.

Development Forum issues

On that note the meeting ended but back in Colombo that was exactly what was happening, with the donor community placing the peace process as the centre piece for the government to achieve its developmental goals.

It was World Bank's Vice President for South Asia, Praful Patel who made no bones about it in his opening address in the presence of President Rajapakse, who did not hide his displeasure over the remarks made. Patel however stood his ground and told the President, the government will not succeed in achieving its development goals unless peace returns to the island.

Apart from Patel, even US Ambassador Robert Blake, whilst extending support for Sri Lanka, categorically ruled out a military solution to the conflict and urged the early resumption of the peace process.

What India, US and donor agencies did very cleverly was congratulate the President for securing a majority in parliament and then use it as a weapon to tell him there was no longer any excuse to delay the process of submitting a viable political package.

And it is for the same reason, there was little resonance for the government's call to separate terrorism from finding a solution to the ethnic conflict though the spin doctors of the administration attempted to convince the public through a statement issued that the development partners had agreed with that position.

In an on the record interview with three editors, Patel put paid to that spin.

Said Patel, "They expressed their concerns about what they were hearing, again I cannot elaborate on that. But from the donor side, we never talked about any kind of distinction between terrorism and all that. We kept on talking about - let's face it - the overall situation in the country. The war like situation, which is increasingly becoming more difficult because the crisis is not subsiding, but even uncertainty of the crisis. This was the thrust of the message."

Patel's views

As for the claim by the government after the Development Forum that with the existing funding in the pipeline, Sri Lanka's total development assistance will rise to around US$ 9 billion within the next three years, this is what Patel had to say to this column: "First of all, let me reiterate the fact that this was not a pledging session. And it is important to make this distinction because if it were a pledging session, you would have a definitive outcome of that session with a definitive figure, which would be jointly agreed by the donors and the government. There was no such outcome because going into the meeting, it was clearly recognised on both sides that it was not a pledging session. It was not, in terms of the timing and appropriateness, the time to do a pledging session. So it was not a pledging session."

Thus, with the myth of the US$ 9 billion pledge exploded, the international community insisting on a peace package by February and the SLFP dissident group fast emerging in addition to the UN Security Council to discuss the Allan Rock report, the bets are that the ides of March will be ominous for the government.