Mounting international pressure and threat of bloodshed ahead

Mann reads the riot act to government

Tamilselvan warns of catastrophic bloodbath across Sri Lanka

Video of secret deal with LTTE to surface in the US

India, US, UK put pressure to deliver on a political package

Mangala, Sripathi up the tempo on deal with

LTTE

While the country was given notice of a bloody war by the LTTE last week in Kilinochchi following a meeting with the Norwegian Ambassador Hans Brattskar, international pressure kept mounting on the government to submit a viable political package to resolve the ethnic conflict even as charges on human rights violations swamped the Mahinda Rajapakse administration.

It is the government's dismal human rights record coupled with the failure to deliver a viable political package that had the international community looking askance, leading to strident calls from human rights watchdogs to have a UN Monitoring Mission despatched to the country.

The failure of the Rajapakse administration to appreciate the consequences of such a development also led to the gung-ho approach of the likes of Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapakse who egged on by other extremist elements continued to threaten intensified military action, the end result of which could well prove disastrous to the country, especially if the call for UN intervention becomes a reality.

Limited successes

Hitherto, the military has had limited successes in the east irrespective of whether it is due to a tactical withdrawal by the LTTE or not and encouraged by this development, Rajapakse has promised further action prompting the Tigers last week to give notice of a bloody war which will engulf the entire country.

This message, the LTTE gave when political wing leader S.P. Tamilselvan met Brattskar and First Secretary Erik Nuremberg in Kilinochchi on Monday, where the international community was blamed for the inevitability of a full scale war given their silence on the military build up by the state. The impression created by the LTTE at the meeting was that they had acted with patience in the face of military offensives by the state to prove to the international community that the real aggressor was the government.

Tamilselvan told the Norwegians at the meeting the LTTE sees a clear military build up in the north indicative of an imminent offensive to which the LTTE will respond decisively and that the international community should be understanding of their response.

The hidden message therein appeared to be that there will be heavy civilian casualties in such a response.

Flouted Cease-Fire Agreement

Stating that the international community had idly stood by as the government intentionally flouted the Cease-Fire Agreement with impunity, Tamilselvan hinted that any offensive by the military in the north will see the war taken to the entire country.

"Our response should not surprise the international community. It would be a decisive response. If there is an attack on our capital, it should not surprise the international community at our response in like manner, Tamilselvan warned.

And driving home that point after the meeting with Brattskar, the LTTE political wing leader told the media, "We are aware that the Sri Lanka Army has amassed military hardware close to Mawilaru in preparation for a major offensive towards Mullaitivu area. Consequence of this offensive will be a catastrophic bloodbath across Sri Lanka."

Interestingly, the very day, Tamilselvan issued this grim warning, the Court of Appeal ruled the Ceasefire Agreement was a legally valid document and that former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe was well within his authority to enter into such an agreement with the LTTE.

That decision not only knocked  the bottom off the entire campaign launched by the JVP and JHU for continued military action but also held both the government and the LTTE responsible for honouring its terms.

More importantly, it placed an added burden on President Mahinda Rajapakse in his capacity as Defence Minister and his brother, Gotabhaya Rajapakse as Defence Secretary to ensure the CFA is complied with, lest it be an added reason for various groups to call for UN intervention given the legal endorsement by the Court of Appeal..

In very poor light

And hot on the heels of this ruling came the US State Department Human Rights Report, where once again both the government and the LTTE came to be painted in very poor light. It also drew attention to the breakdown of the CFA.

Given the backdrop of calls for UN intervention in Sri Lanka with  disappearances also on the rise, the comments on the government were  particularly damning, moreso since the LTTE in any event is a listed terrorist organisation in the USA.

The essence of this report was captured in the second and third paragraphs, which were telling  on the Rajapakse regime in the lead upto the Geneva sessions of the United Nations Human Rights Commission where a resolution on Sri Lanka is up for discussion.

Human Rights Minister Mahinda Samarasinghe in fact flew out to Geneva on Thursday to appeal for a little more time to get the government's  act together on the strength of the commission of inquiry appointed and the presence of international monitors.

Be that as it may, the US report had this to say in the second and third  paragraphs:

"The government's respect for the human rights of its citizens declined due in part to the breakdown of the CFA. Credible sources reported human rights problems, including unlawful killings by government agents, high profile killings by unknown perpetrators, politically motivated killings by paramilitary forces associated with the government and the LTTE, and disappearances. Human rights monitors also reported arbitrary arrests and detention, poor prison conditions, denial of fair public trial, government corruption and lack of transparency, infringement of religious freedom, infringement of freedom of movement, and discrimination against minorities.

"There were numerous reports that armed paramilitary groups linked to government security forces participated in armed attacks, some against civilians. Following the December 1 LTTE attempt to assassinate Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapakse, the government strengthened emergency regulations that broadened security forces' powers in the arrest without warrant and non-accountable detention of civilians for up to 12 months."

"The LTTE continued to control large sections of the north and east and engaged in politically motivated killings, suicide attacks, disappearances, torture, arbitrary arrest and detention, denial of fair public trial, arbitrary interference with privacy, denial of freedom of speech, press, and of assembly and association, and the recruitment of child soldiers."

Significantly, just days prior to the release of this report, US Ambassador Robert  Blake went on public record calling on the government to deliver a political package which would be an improvement on the 2000 draft proposal of the Chandrika Kumaratunga administration which called for a union of regions, sentiments communicated also to the President by India several days before that.

Blake also repeatedly said there can be no military solution for the conflict even as the government launched a fresh offensive in Thoppigala forcing thousands of civilians to flee.

It will be recalled that earlier four top US senators, John Kerry, Richard Durbin, Chris Dodd and Edward Kennedy wrote to  the government stressing the urgency of addressing the human rights situation and delivering  a political package; which was followed by another letter from 38 US Congressmen to US President George Bush calling for the appointment of a special envoy to Sri Lanka, given the deteriorating situation in the country.

And throwing their weight to the growing body of international opinion was British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett who told her Sri Lankan counterpart Rohitha Bogollagama last week that violence came with too high a price for all Sri Lankans.

Beckett told Bogollagama at their meeting in no uncertain terms  that there can be no military solution to the conflict. "Human rights abuses do nothing but damage Sri Lanka's image in the eyes of the world. We look forward to maintaining a dialogue on human rights with the government of Sri Lanka," Beckett also said.

International effort

And giving a further push to this concerted international effort was the visit of Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, Steve Mann to Sri Lanka on Thursday.

Mann who met President Mahinda Rajapakse on Friday stressed the importance of forwarding a substantial devolution package at the earliest, given the majority the government enjoyed in the House and signaled the strong opposition of the US to a military solution.

More importantly, Mann made it  clear the US had a very low threshold of tolerance on the human rights situation in the country and  adverted to the growing demand in Congress for the appointment of a special envoy.

Effectively what Mann did was put the President on notice to act on the concerns of the international community or face the consequences.

That the US, UK and India are speaking the same language on this issue was also a signal the international community was united in their approach towards the Rajapakse regime when it came to dealing with a solution to the ethnic crisis and human rights, a point not lost on the President.

But the President embroiled in an internal conflict with a dissident group led by former Ministers  Samaraweera and Sripathi Sooriyaarachchi was not in a mood to go that far, believing it will  force the JVP's hand against the government in parliament and advised Minister Wisva Warnapala who was tasked with drafting SLFP's response to the APRC to stick with the unitary state concept.

Bloodbath

In fact, the President believes, despite the 'bloodbath' warning of the LTTE he could only beat the threat posed from the Samaraweera group by continuing with military operations and carrying the southern electorate with him on the strength of it, a tactic that can well backfire if the Tigers carry out their threat and launch attacks in areas outside the north and east.

Another dangerous trend emerging in this scenario is speculation of a rapprochement between the Karuna group and the LTTE, which for the record the Karuna group has denied but it is causing some concern in government circles.

Speculation is that the Karuna group has been instructed to work with the government and gain political control in the east, following which the link up with the LTTE can take place leaving the state at sixes and sevens given the extent of their infiltration into the state machinery. There is a school of thought that it is  to further this strategy that the LTTE made a tactical withdrawal from the east in the face of the military offensive.

It is in this context, eyebrows were also raised when government claimed , persons whose bodies were recently discovered in Muthurajawela and Anuradhapura were Karuna supporters, since it gave rise to the question as to who was responsible for such abductions and murders outside the north-east.

Coming in the backdrop of allegations by Sripathi Sooriyaarachchi that the Rajapakse loyalists had promised to deliver Karuna to the LTTE in a pre-election pact, the development was, to say the least, intriguing since it was unlikely that the LTTE could carry out such abductions in the south, considering the tight security cordon in place as claimed by the government.

For, if the LTTE could carry out such abductions in the south without detection, then the words of Tamilselvan relating to a bloodbath can be frightening.

Such concerns apart, what had the President preoccupied was the challenge posed by the SLFP dissidents over the secret Tiger deal with Samaraweera and Sooriyaarachchi upping the tempo in the face of deafening silence by the government.

This they did by submitting a motion under the signature of Sripathi Sooriyaarachchi calling for a  Parliamentary Select Committee probe on the alleged deal, where Rajapakse's brothers were also drawn into the picture.

Rather than taking the challenge head on, what the government moved to do was look for a way out of facing a select committee probe by subjecting Samaraweera and Sooriyaarachchi to a disciplinary inquiry.

Inquiring into conduct

Towards this end, a meeting of the SLFP Central Committee office bearers was summoned Wednesday evening at Temple Trees where on the agenda was the appointment of a committee to inquire into the conduct of Samaraweera and Sooriyaarachchi.

And to the surprise of President Rajapakse and other office bearers, who should walk in for the meeting with a document in hand but Samaraweera no less, in his capacity as SLFP Treasurer.

In a clear show that he is a politician of mettle, Samaraweera calmly walked into the meeting and took his seat, with the entire room reduced to pin drop silence.

Gathering his wits and breaking the awkward silence was the President who inquired about party accounts, which the Treasurer dealt with swiftly and after a few other administrative matters were discussed, General Secretary Maithripala Sirisena fished out a note from a file in front of him.

Sirisena then proceeded to read the note softly, referring to the comments made by Samaraweera and Sooriyaarachchi and the need to have a disciplinary inquiry, at which point, up went Samaraweera.

With all eyes focused on him, Samaraweera said he was not in receipt of an agenda for the meeting but had brought a letter for the consideration of the Central Committee office bearers when deciding on the proposal made by Sirisena.

Four-page letter

That said, Samaraweera gave the four page letter to Sirisena and requested for it to be tabled and Sirisena readily accepted it.

Thereafter, Samaraweera said since the members would be discussing his case, it would not be proper for him to participate in the discussion any further and would accordingly leave and got up to do so.

Said the President at this point - "Don't go. We are a democratic party. You can stay."

Shot back Samaraweera - "I don't know about that now, but I am a democrat and believe in abiding by those principles," and with that said he picked up his file and walked out of Temple Trees, making his exit as much a performance as his entry.

Completely ruffled, the President made sure Sirisena did not circulate Samaraweera's letter to the other members, which he got wind of the following day and found it ironic considering Rajapakse's comments about democracy in the party.

Accordingly, the very next day, Thursday, March 8, Samaraweera wrote another letter to Minister Sirisena, urging him to circulate his letter since it was brought to his notice by several members that Sirisena had confiscated it.

In his missive Samaraweera states, he tabled a letter at the meeting with a request to the President for it to be circulated among the Central Committee members for their internal discussions but that he was informed Sirisena had collected all copies denying the members an opportunity of reading it.

Deep displeasure

Expressing his deep displeasure at depriving the members of the benefit of his letter to take a considered view on the charges made against them, Samaraweera states such censorship goes against the policies of the SLFP.

Needless to say, the letter tabled by Samaraweera at the Central Committee meeting was not to Rajapakse's liking given the contents therein, hence the decision to keep it away from the other members. (See pages 10 and 11 for letter ).

In that letter, Samaraweera in tracing the policy framework of the SLFP and the President's action to remove him and Sooriyaarachchi as ministers, poses a series of questions which had the President in a dither.

"Is our demand to carry out the battle against LTTE terrorism in a systematic manner whilst ensuring the protection of human rights a violation of party policy? Is it against our party policy to call for a political solution to the ethnic conflict which has dragged on for 30 years? Is it a violation of a party policy to call for the maintenance of our good name with the international community which was earned after 1994? Is it a mistake on my part to obtain for the country the blessings of two diametrically opposed parties such as the United States and the Palestinians? Is it a violation of party policy to expose bribery, corruption and  highlight nepotism in government?"

Samaraweera has asked in his letter.

Open fire

And in a show of defiance, the following day, Thursday, in parliament Sooriyaarachchi was to open fire once again, charging, he was involved in the first discussion prior to the 2005 presidential election with the LTTE together with Presidential Advisor Basil Rajapakse and added it is to ascertain details of  the deal that he called for a select committee probe.

And while the people awaited the next episode of this drama in the face of deafening silence by the Rajapakse brothers, it transpires the video recording of the financial transaction with the LTTE representative is set to surface in the United States.

The strategy,  given  the fight against global terrorism by the US, is to approach a television station in the USA to air the video of money, running into millions of dollars changing hands and the discussion between the parties.

This, it is believed will have a devastating impact considering Basil Rajapakse being a Green Card holder of the US and the stage is thus set for the next stage of this drama where in all likelihood the Federal Bureau of Investigations will also be drawn in.

For Mahinda Rajapakse and his brothers though  appearing to be sitting pretty, the failure to listen to international opinion on issues of human rights is fast beginning to tell and that ground reality is expected to strike home  much sooner than later, which will possibly result in a sea change in Sri Lanka's political landscape.