Red alert for Tiger air strike in the north

LTTE opts for Kosovo and East Timor style independence

Dayan reminds Germany of Fascism at Geneva Sessions

President wants talks with LTTE

MR's Indian lobbyist Luthra's role to surface in parliament

While the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) last week signalled its intention of formally withdrawing from the Ceasefire Agreement and relaunching the campaign for a separate state, President Mahinda Rajapakse was busy attempting to convince the international community he wanted a negotiated settlement to the ethnic crisis albeit with not much success.

What the President failed to realise in beating the war drums to keep the southern polity quiet in the face of failures in the economic front is, internationally he was losing ground especially due to the human rights situation in the country, and that is exactly what the LTTE sought to capitalise on to push their case for independence.

Viable solution?

In the recent months, the government has projected the military option as a viable solution to the crisis with none other than Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapakse in the presence of President Rajapakse articulating this position at a ceremony in Trincomalee days before the United Nations General Assembly sessions, much to the LTTE's delight.

For the LTTE, such words were music to their ears and grist to the propaganda mill because it proved their case internationally that the Rajapakse government was not interested in a political solution and as such they too had the right to push for separation.   

What might have emboldened the government to publicly declare the military option possibly is the LTTE's seeming failure to counter the military onslaught effectively which the government has projected to the people in the south as a sign of inevitable victory.

Bursting the bubble

But last week, LTTE Political Wing Leader S.P. Tamilselvan burst that bubble, claiming the Tigers were merely fighting a 'defensive war' to expose to the international community, the government's insincerity when it came to a negotiated political settlement with the All Party Representative Committee (APRC) effort itself described as a sham.

That may well have been rhetoric by Tamilselvan to boost the Tiger morale but just 48 hours later, the LTTE was to send a formal communication to the UN General Assembly which gave expression to their game plan and signalled in the process they were neither down nor out.

The Tiger statement also came at a time the security forces in the north and the east were placed on alert based on intelligence reports that the LTTE airforce is likely to make a strike in the theatre of war in the next few days.

And the Tiger statement released on September 24 titled Recognise The Sovereignty Of The Tamil People, went largely unnoticed in the south but the message contained therein was potent and not lost on the international community, given the references to Kosovo and East Timor.

Human rights abuses

Tracing the history of the peace process under President Rajapakse, the LTTE drew attention to the Defence Secretary's statement of pursuing a military solution and detailed the human rights abuses in the north and east before setting out how the organisation intends proceeding from now on (See page 10 for full statement).

Under a separate heading titled, Expectations Of The Tamil People From The International Community, the LTTE had this to state:

"(i) To recognise the concept of the sovereignty of the Tamil people, and support the peace process in accordance with this principle.

(2) To provide appropriate opportunities to the Tamil people to express their aspirations, as have been given to the people of East Timor and Kosovo."

In effect, what the LTTE has told the world is that any future talks will have to be subject to recognising the concept of sovereignty of the Tamil people and aimed at achieving their aspiration of a separate state as in Kosovo and East Timor. Simply put, talks cannot be based on the CFA as it currently stands since it only recognises the sovereignty of Sri Lanka.

The Ceasefire Agreement Article 1.3 specifically states thus: The Sri Lankan armed forces shall continue to perform their legitimate task of safeguarding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Sri Lanka without engaging in offensive operations against the LTTE."

And that is the only reference to sovereignty in the CFA which the LTTE has now by implication rejected through the statement released to the UN representatives on the need to recognise sovereignty of the Tamil people when it comes to resuming the peace process.

Further, East Timor it will be recalled gained independence from Indonesia in May 2002 following a UN sponsored Act of Self Determination and talks on Kosova's independence are scheduled to get underway at the UN in December with the United States and several EU countries already having declared their intention of recognising the Serbian province as a separate state.

Thus, what the LTTE has done through its statement is taken the conflict to a new level and made it clear they stand ready to push for independence through military means unless the government agrees to resume talks under the new terms set.

Dispelling notions

That objective the LTTE may not be able to realise either with the government or the international community but what it also means is that they are ready for battle in the months to come, thereby dispelling notions of being militarily weakened.

Afterall, if the LTTE is militarily weakened, they would want to push for peace talks and use the time to re-group, instead of which they are upping the ante, forcing the government too to wage war in the north.

It is also not without significance that the LTTE's new policy statement comes at a time the UN Human Rights Council and related agencies are focusing on Sri Lanka's human rights record with the Security Council's Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict expected to table a progress report in October for consideration by the Council in November.

And with a visit by UN Human Rights Commissioner Louise Arbour scheduled for October, where she is also expected to meet with families of the disappeared, come November Sri Lanka will have a lot to answer for given the fact that already on the table are the Allan Rock report and findings of Sir John Holmes.

It may not be a fair world we are living in but government representatives have not made their case any easier by taking an offensive stand against some of the more powerful nations on the human rights issue, rather than using diplomacy as a tact.

Aggressive posture

In fact, while the likes of Human Rights Minister Mahinda Samarasinghe, Foreign Minister Rohitha Bogollagama and Attorney General C.R. De Silva have adopted a consensual approach on resolving the human rights issues fully realising what is in store for the country, Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapakse and Sri Lanka's Permanent Representative in Geneva  Dayan Jayatilleke have adopted a much more aggressive and confrontationist posture. And  while the latter stance no doubt will be appealing to the domestic audience, it  will do little to help Sri Lanka's case internationally.

Thus while Minister Samarasinghe during his visit to Geneva impressed upon the steps taken by the government to address the human rights concerns of the world body, Jayatilleke made a more in-your-face presentation, the results of which Sri Lanka will reap in the months to come.

Novel experiences

Said Jayatilleke at the UN Human Rights Council session in Geneva inter alia: "I heard a criticism of the Sri Lankan government's position, and an endorsement of the critique of the IIGEP. It is a novel experiment Mr. President, in the middle of a conflict, we have invited international observers to help our Commission of Inquiry and to act as observers with an oversight capacity. There are doubtless asymmetries and misunderstandings. But we would also in the same spirit as our critics, ask whether an international commission of inquiry had been appointed to find out what happened that night in Stammheim prison, when Andreas Baader, Ulrike Meinhoff and many others were found hanging in their cells. We, Mr. President, do not believe in neutrality. We did not adopt a posture of neutrality between fascism and democracy in order to build up our prosperity. We do not need lectures from those who did."

Words no doubt meant to sting, especially countries like Germany and Japan where references were made to fascism and Switzerland when it came to neutrality in the context of the Second World War but how such confrontational  statements will help Sri Lanka neutralise the international community remains to be seen.

Of course, the justification for Jayatilleke's statement from the government's point of view was the particularly harsh indictments passed on Sri Lanka by Germany, Netherlands and Switzerland, which they said could not go unchallenged by any self-respecting nation, though what advantage would accrue to the country through such statements is a moot point.

International concerns

And it is in such a backdrop, President Rajapakse rose to speak at the UN General Assembly in New York and he too was to echo the words of Jayatilleke on the international concerns expressed over Sri Lanka's human rights record.

Said the President - "Guided by the principles of Buddhism, we have long respected the rights of our fellow human beings. Therefore, it had not been necessary for us to experience global wars or the deaths of millions, to learn to recognise their value. My country has no record of inflicting misery on fellow human beings for the purpose of empire building, for commercial advantage or for religious righteousness."

Added Rajapakse - "Sri Lanka believes, as one of the founder members of the Human Rights Council, that human rights are too important to be use as a tool to victimise states for political advantage. It is essential that international action to facilitate compliance with human rights standards is fair and even-handed. Human rights have to be protected and advanced for their own sake, not for political gain."

But the President also realised, such rhetoric alone will not hold water with the international community towards whom he was looking for economic assistance and held out the promise of a negotiated political settlement to the ethnic crisis almost as a sop.

Having asked for donor assistance to rebuild the Eastern Province, the President was to tell the UN, the government has launched military operations only to exert pressure on terrorists in order to convince them that it will not be possible for them to obtain a military victory. "Our goal remains a negotiated and honourable end to this unfortunate conflict."

Defeat the LTTE

The effect of the President's statement is that the government will not seek to defeat the LTTE militarily but only convince them, they cannot win Eelam militarily.

Implied therein is also the fact the government too does not believe the LTTE can be defeated militarily or that such a move would solve the problem.

However, given the LTTE's statement to the UNGA members on the new guidelines for talks and the President's own reliance on the APRC, which he himself has stymied, to deliver the goods, there was no doubt in  the minds of the world's leaders, there will be little headway made on the political front.

This aspect in fact came to be discussed by US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Nicholas Burns and Norway's International Development Minister Erik Solheim when they met with Rajapakse separately in New York.

Burns was to impress upon the President the need to pursue a negotiated political settlement in addition to addressing the human rights situation, which Rajapakse vowed to do.

The President detailed to Burns the steps taken by the government to address the human rights concerns and the work of the APRC, which he said would produce a consensus document shortly, words which rang hollow given the reality. Burns was well aware of the road blocks placed in the path of the APRC by Rajapakse himself and also the military solution propagated by the Defence Secretary, and he drew the President's attention to them.

All attempts

Of course the President blamed the opposition for blocking all his attempts to reach a consensus at the APRC and clarified the Defence Secretary's statement, though their were few takers given the ground realities.

Likewise, with Solheim too the President said he stands ready to  resume talks if the LTTE agreed to come to the table unconditionally. The President in fact told Solheim who was in the company of Special Envoy Jon Hanssen-Bauer to  sound out the LTTE on the proposal.

But the fact remains, the LTTE will now not budge from its stated position and resume talks especially considering the fact, Pirapaharan has to deliver some victory before his annual Martyrs' Day speech on November 27 and the government too is alive to it.

Faced with this situation, it is to India the President is once again hoping to turn to with a visit planned in the second week of October where an appointment with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has also been solicited through the Sri Lankan Mission in New Delhi.

The President in fact is to speak at an International Leadership Forum in New Delhi organised by the Hindustan Times in the second week of October, and it is during this visit he has solicited a meeting with Manmohan Singh given the luncheon meeting former President Chandrika Kumaratunga had with the Indian Premier.

That meeting and the comments made by Kumaratunga had in fact been of great concern to the President and an Indian lobbyist hired by him had been requested to take damage control steps.

Finding out

The Indian lobbyist identified as Ms. Rama Luthra works closely with Presidential Advisor Sunimal Fernando and had spoken with several Indian big wigs to find out exactly what Kumaratunga had told the Indian Premier.

It is also an open secret that Luthra who visits Sri Lanka and Temple Trees at regular intervals, has undertaken the job of not only promoting the government's interest in New Delhi but also identifying selected journalists both in India and locally to promote the Rajapakse administration and its commitment to a negotiated settlement.

Indeed she has moved not only to identify journalists who can write on the ethnic issue but also what newspapers they should write for with big bucks on offer, details of which are to soon out.

The details of the role Luthra plays for the Rajapakse administration and the big bucks involved are to be the subject of a question in parliament shortly with Presidential Advisor Sunimal Fernando's name also to figure in the process. It was only last week, Sunimal Fernando's wife, Shanthi's name transpired in connection with the secret Tiger deal where a draft cabinet paper on the President's directive granting covering approval for the Rs. 700 million payment to the LTTE front companies was despatched under her hand to Presidential Secretary Lalith Weeratunga.

Be that as it may, what raised a few eyebrows last week was a report that the UNP had jettisoned the federal formula to appease the JVP with the November budget in mind, a matter which was laid to rest on Friday with Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe issuing a statement setting out the party position.

What the UNP did through its statement was in keeping with the current trend of not getting bogged down by semantics, set out its commitment to extensive devolution without specific reference to the word 'federal.'

Said the UNP - "A political solution must safeguard the territorial integrity of Sri Lanka and the sovereignty of the people. It must also protect the rights of the minorities. We must be innovative and evolve a new constitutional model reflecting our own experiences."

And to ensure the power devolved will not be wrested back by another government, the UNP has also proposed introducing a system which will protect the devolved powers between the centre and the region, thereby giving it a federal flavour on the lines suggested by APRC Chairman Tissa Vitharana.

With that policy statement, what the UNP has done is cast a burden on Rajapakse too not to stick to words such as 'Unitary' in evolving a solution but to deal with the content.