First with the news and free with its views                                     First with the news and free with its views                             First with the news and free with its views                                    

Editorial

November 18, 2007  Volume 14, Issue 22


Sports

Arts

Letters

Spotlight

Review

Fashion

Issues

Economy

           

The Govt. has clearly lost focus

By Mandana Ismail Abeywickrema

The UPFA government's budget for 2008 has further compounded the economic instability in the country.

The budget presented by President and Finance Minister Mahinda Rajapakse two years into office, due to the lack of proper direction, would actually increase the burdens of the people than alleviate them.

The government has openly declared war on terrorism and has courageously increased its defence allocations for next year. So far it is the war that has been used, apart from the rising global prices of several commodities, by the government to shield itself from a possible public outcry against the country's failed economy. The spiraling cost of living and inflation have been covered by gains made in the battlefront.

However, as stated by an analyst, it is important to understand that wrong economic policies of the government have the potential to at some point undermine the successes in the battlefront. The government has clearly lost focus and overlooked the close link between the conflict and the economy.

Welfare oriented

Analysts have pointed out that the public expenditure programme of the government seems to be welfare oriented than workfare oriented while on the revenue side, the government's tax policy appeared to be regressive because of its over dependence on indirect taxes.

Indirect taxes are known to be a catalyst that pushes inflation further as they are passed on to the consumers through price hikes in goods and services.

Principal Researcher, Point Pedro Institute of Development, Dr. Muttukrishna Sarvananthan observed that the government continued to depend heavily on indirect taxes.

In 2008, 84% of the government revenue is expected to accrue from tax revenue (Rs.653 billion out of Rs.775 billion). Out of the total tax revenue 78% is expected from indirect taxes (Rs.512 billion out of Rs.653 billion) and 22% from direct taxes (Rs.141 billion out of Rs.653 billion). Although the share of indirect taxes in the total tax revenue has been declining in recent years (from 85% in 2005 to 79% in 2007) it is still too high.

Fiscal theory

Dr. Sarvanathan pointed out that in fiscal theory direct taxes (income/dividend tax, corporate tax, economic service charge, PAYE (Pay As You Earn) tax, etc.) are deemed to be progressive and indirect taxes (import/export duties/cess, regional infrastructure development levy VAT (Value Added Tax), excise duty, stamp duty, debit tax, motor vehicle tax, social responsibility levy, etc) regressive, because direct taxes are on income but indirect taxes are on consumption / expenditure. Higher income earners pay greater direct taxes and therefore progressive, but indirect taxes are the same irrespective of the income level of the consumer and therefore regressive.

"Indirect taxes are one of the main causes of inflation, because these taxes are passed on to the consumers by way of increasing the price of goods and services. Therefore, attempts should be made to increase the share of direct taxes in the total tax revenue in order to contain the rising cost of living," Dr. Sarvananthan said.

Also, analysts as well as the private sector last week called on the need to decentralise the tax administration (levying and collection) as well as simplifying them.

According to Dr. Sarvananthan, the provincial and local governments should be given authority to levy direct and indirect taxes at the provincial and local levels, instead of the central government levying and collecting direct and indirect taxes and then redistributing to the provinces and local authorities through transfers.

Regional infrastructure

"For example, we cannot understand why the regional infrastructure development levy should be levied by the central government. Instead, the provincial councils should levy this tax in order to pay for infrastructure development within their provinces. There is no evidence to show that the regional infrastructure development levy collected by the central government in the past couple of years has been spent on infrastructure development in the provinces," he stated at a budget seminar last week.

Dr. Sarvananthan also explained that an argument that would be put forward is that the central government should levy only the taxes on international trade, and the provincial governments/councils should levy the direct and indirect taxes from citizens and businesses within their respective provinces. "By this way the provincial governments will be able to pay for public services provided and development activities carried out within their provinces and there would be no need for transfers from the central government/ministries to the provinces," he said.

Also, the central government should then become a regulator of economic and political affairs among the provinces within the confines of the laws of the country.

"The tax revenue collected from international trade by the central government should be expended for defence (three armed forces and not the police) and external relations of the country. The police force should be decentralised and paid for by respective provincial governments. The Central Bank should become independent of the central and provincial governments and take on the role of regulator of the financial system, monetary policies and the currency," Dr. Sarvananthan said.

Promote competition

This kind of decentralised tax model is also expected to promote competition among provinces and stimulate regional economic growth and development.

Be that as it may, the government's reliance on indirect taxes and local and foreign borrowing to fund its ambitious spending plans would put further pressure on inflation.

Senior Presidential Advisor and MP Basil Rajapakse told The Sunday Leader after the budget presentation that the government has already made several proposals to address the widening budget deficit.

According to Rajapakse, one way of reducing the deficit was to look for more foreign funding, which in turn would increase the country's foreign debt portfolio.

The external factors are also not conducive either for reduction in inflation.

"World crude oil price is fast approaching US$ 100 per barrel and world prices of wheat and milk powder are on the rise. Oil and wheat are entirely imported and over 80% of the milk powder is imported. Therefore, domestic and external factors are not favourable for reduction in inflation," Dr. Sarvananthan said.

It has also been noted that the tight monetary policy pursued by the Central Bank since the beginning of 2007 seems to have negatively affected economic growth whilst not reducing inflation.

Peace vital for economic growth

Donor agencies have highlighted the need for a lasting solution to the ethnic conflict in order to achieve its full growth potential.

 Managing Director, World Bank, Graeme Wheeler who was in Sri Lanka earlier in the month said that it was 'vital' for Sri Lanka to seek a political solution to the ethnic conflict, as it was 'critical' in order to achieve greater prosperity for all Sri Lankans.

He said that the conflict remained a major obstacle to the country in achieving its full growth potential.

"As the World Bank has said previously, the conflict remains a major obstacle to Sri Lanka achieving its full potential. My interactions over these days have reinforced my view that the conflict is an enormous burden on both the Sri Lankan people and the country's longer term economic prosperity," he said.

According to Wheeler, it was important to complete the transition from military to civilian control at the earliest opportunity in order to ensure the success of sustainable development activities.

As part of the World Bank's proposals for reducing inflation and the budget deficit, Wheeler said that the government should look at reducing heavy expenditure on national security and solving the conflict would be the solution to it.

The budget is a "still birth" - Weerawansa

The government's 2008 budget has come under fire by the JVP, the main coalition partner of the UPFA government.

The private, public sector and estate sector trade unions affiliated to the JVP have threatened islandwide strikes protesting against the government's failure to address the issues faced by the people.

Many frontline JVPers have already made public statements of its plans to protest against the 2008 budget.

The first salvo was fired by none other than the JVP Propaganda Secretary Wimal Weerawansa, who called the budget a "still birth" hours after it was presented by President Mahinda Rajapakse. He further said that the government has not offered any solutions to the problems faced by the people.

JVP parliamentarian and trade union leader K. D. Lalkantha threatened to launch a series of crippling strikes if the government fails to grant an immediate and adequate salary increase to both the public and private sector employees.

"This government has no credentials. We warn this government, if it fails the people, if it fails the working class, it will be doomed. If an immediate and adequate salary hike is not granted to both public and private sector employees, we will mobilise the masses against this regime. Enough of excuses, we want concrete action," he said.

Head of the Inter Company Employees' Union (ICEU) and JVP parliamentarian Wasantha Samarasinghe told The Sunday Leader earlier that although the cost of living index has seen an increase of 1,550 index points since President Mahinda Rajapakse assumed office in 2005, no steps have been taken to increase the wages of the private sector employees.

"The private sector employees have been completely overlooked in the budget. With the rising cost of living, they expected some relief from the government, but instead of relief, the people have been burdened with more taxes," he said.

According to Samarasinghe, in line with the rising cost of living, the salary of a private sector employee should have been increased by a minimum of Rs. 3,750.

Samarasinghe further said that ICEU has called on all private sector workers to come together to take trade union action against the government.

Meanwhile, Secretary of the National Trade Union Center (NTUC) and JVP parliamentarian Piyasiri Wijenayake also said that the public sector employees have also not received any relief from the budget.

He said that instead of providing any relief, President Rajapakse had tried to fool the public sector employees by presenting various calculations in the budget.

"President Mahinda Rajapakse thinks that the public sector workers do not know arithmetic," he said.

Wijenayake said that the budget has not given enough money for public sector workers to even buy a milk powder packet.

JVP parliamentarian Chandrasena Wijesinghe also last week said the budget proposals that have been presented to the Parliament was an empty paper without any relief to the masses. He said that tea small holders too would launch a protest campaign against the government.

Another JVP parliamentarian Premasiri Manage said last Thursday that the government has not resolved any of the problems faced by the fisheries sector and threatened to launch a series of protest campaigns.

He said that budgetary allocations for the fisheries sector have been cut by Rs. 2 billion in the 2008 budget.

Cost of living - a crucial factor

The cost of living factor has played a key role in the formation of governments through history.

The cost of living played a key role in the great hartal of 1953. Then the opposition led by the late Sirimavo Bandaranaike said that rice would be brought from the moon and eventually, all this led to her return to power.

However, ironically, it is these very same issues - the rising cost of living and the lack of essential goods - that led to her defeat in 1977.

In 1994 the government headed by President Chandrika Kumaratunga came to power on the promise of providing bread at Rs. 3.50 (a loaf of bread weighed 450 grammes) at a time when a loaf was sold at Rs. 5.50. A US dollar was then Rs. 49.

Bread has been associated as the food of the common man and it is bread and dhal curry (paan and parippu) that was always said to be the staple diet of the poorest in the country.

However, last week the price of wheat flour  was raised by 13 rupee to over 60 rupees a kilogramme  and now a loaf of bread is  priced around Rs. 30 to 35.

As for the price of dhal, which was Rs. 60 per kilo in 2004 is today Rs. 105 - so much for a country that elected a government on a  'pro-poor' mandate.

 

 


©Leader Publications (Pvt) Ltd.
24, Katukurunduwatte Road, Ratmalana Sri Lanka
Tel : +94-75-365891,2 Fax : +94-75-365891
email :
editor@thesundayleader.lk