Abrogation Of CFA: A Big Mistake

The Ceasefire Agreement which was at times maligned justifiably and at times wrongly, has finally been abrogated and there is much hoopla about its demise even though those celebrating concede that it was dead as a dodo for a long time. Such is the political idiocy prevalent. Anything is good enough to be claimed as a great victory for their particular leader even though nothing tangible flows from the decision other than international isolation.

The six-year-old agreement was flawed from the very beginning and was violated by both sides - much more by the LTTE but overall the agreement was an outstanding achievement and the positives far out weighed the negatives. It stopped direct military conflicts between the government forces and the LTTE during the Ranil Wickremesinghe administration and gave much needed breathing space for the country to recover economically from a negative growth recorded for the first time post independence. Further even after former President Chandrika Kumaratunga staged a political coup and took over the Defence Ministry portfolio and the UPFA was returned to office in April 2004 and during the first year of the Mahinda Rajapakse administration too the CFA held, warts and all, without any major battles.

The number of deaths due to military conflict and bomb explosions prior to the CFA was estimated at around 3000 per year and it dropped to around 200 after the CFA was signed till the Mawilaru incident when the Rajapakse administration went into the east and took on the LTTE. The number of casualties now is not officially known but it would have certainly leapfrogged from the figure of 200. That alone was a significant achievement of the CFA despite severe castigation of it by the SLFP, JVP and other allies purely for political gain. And who would now answer to the loved ones of those killed or maimed due to military conflict, especially if the war is waged as alleged by the JVP no less to fulfil a political agenda?

The CFA also helped around 300,000 of the 800,000 internally displaced persons to return to their homes. It also resulted in world powers being involved in the Sri Lankan peace process which helped subdue the LTTE in no small measure and subjected them too to international scrutiny such as on child recruitment. The six rounds of talks in foreign capitals after the CFA finally resulted in the LTTE being pushed into a corner to agree to a 'federal solution' which Velupillai Pirapaharan reneged on soon after. This resulted in severe damage to Pirapaharan's credibility and exposed to the world that his idea of devolution was not even federalism but a racist, fascist state of which the LTTE (which means Pirapaharan) would be the sole leader.

Even greater was that the CFA of Ranil Wickremesinghe trapped Pirapaharan in an international safety net which he himself acknowledged in his "Heroes' Day" address soon after Rajapakse assumed the Presidency in November 2005 with more than a little help from the Tigers. The world powers wanted him to give up violence in word and deed and this was not to the liking of the LTTE leader. He sprang a surprise among all when a few days before the presidential elections he issued a fatwa to all Tamils not to cast their votes.

Tamils were expected to vote en bloc for Wickremesinghe who had been far more accommodating towards minority grievances and aspirations than Rajapakse. To Pirapaharan, that was the surest sign of losing the support of the Tamil people and with it the dream of Eelam and his fatwa ensured the defeat of Wickremesinghe. The simple logic on why Pirapaharan would want defeated the man the Sinhala extremists claimed was paving the way for Eelam and ensure the victory of the man who pledged a unitary Sinhala Buddhist State was lost on the people in the south and it still continues to elude them as the war drums beat even louder.

It is also claimed that the CFA was instrumental in initiating the split within the LTTE and the breaking away of Karuna, the LTTE military commander of the Eastern Province who had been a key military commander and responsible for many successful attacks  by the LTTE on military establishments. Karuna was one of the main suppliers of youth to the LTTE's baby brigades. It is widely believed that Karuna joined and helped government forces to battle the LTTE in the east which resulted in government forces regaining control of the territory. Thus, the much maligned CFA may also have been instrumental in driving out the LTTE from the east, which is the singular achievement that the Rajapakse administration can claim.

Despite these gains there were glaring flaws as well but in efforts to resolve a conflict that has raged for nearly three decades it would be foolhardy to expect a perfect agreement from day one.

The demarcation of LTTE controlled areas resulted in the notion that a de facto state had been created. It had its entry points, and goods and vehicles entering through these entry points were 'taxed.' Permission had to be obtained from the LTTE to enter. The LTTE which had been having their own kangaroo courts, police, army and navy went further. It even formed its own air force. Government administration in the area was directed by the LTTE under who state employees paid by the Sri Lanka government worked. But even on that score one has to look at the ground reality objectively and deal with the issue. The fact is the LTTE had the tax collection systems, their own administration, police and judicial system operating in areas under their control before the CFA came into operation. What the CFA did was unite the once divided land where even those people from the south were free to not only travel to the Wanni but sell their wares too.

It was argued that LTTE leaders received visiting diplomats including ambassadors and even those of higher rank thereby giving them international recognition. The set up was such that many visiting journalists wrote that a de facto state was already in existence. But it is this very access to diplomats and visiting dignitaries which brought them under the international safety net and answerable for their actions. True the LTTE continued with its terrorism by killing government operatives, particularly intelligence operatives sporadically and they continued to smuggle shiploads of arms but all that and more continued before the CFA as well.

Remember that there was no CFA but emergency regulations and a ban in force when the LTTE overran the Elephant Pass Camp or for that matter attacked the Katunayake Airport and inflicted heavy damage. Remember also there was no CFA in force when the Central Bank and the Dalada Maligawa were bombed. The government too violated the agreement by sending long range hit squads to kill LTTE leaders and sunk at least three Tiger vessels smuggling weapons and the CFA did not act as a deterrent.

The CFA is now scrapped but what is there for the government and the country to gain? President Rajapakse is expected to find political stability by gaining the support of the JVP in parliament. The abolition of the CFA was a pledge extracted from the government by the JVP to vote for the budget and save the government from defeat. Rajapakse will now try to forge a permanent alliance with the JVP. For the JVP which has failed to implement any of the radical reforms  promised to their cadres, the abrogation  is a bonanza which helps isolate the government internationally and from the moderate forces in the country and force the Rajapakses brothers to be at their mercy. They can at least for a while thunder from political platforms: 'We forced this government to scrap this agreement which derogated our sovereignty and threatened the unity and integrity of the nation..' blah, blah at least for a while.

For the country therefore in overall terms the losses of abrogating the CFA far out weigh the gains. The SLMM who have been here for six years as monitors of the agreement will now quit. This comes at a time when there is strong pressure from Western nations as well as the UN to permit entry of a UN human rights monitoring mission. If the government goes ahead with its plans to attack the Wanni, the demand for human rights observers on the ground will, no doubt, increase.

The writing is already on the wall. The US government announced last week that they have suspended defence export licences for Sri Lanka following a resolution adopted by the US Congress and signed by President George Bush. The abandonment of the CFA will convey the impression that the government is hell bent on war even though it maintains that they are open to negotiations. The LTTE will now adopt the posture of the aggrieved - they abandoned the CFA, not us. The pro LTTE NGOs will cry in protest against the agreement being ditched and attempt to justify recent LTTE attacks in Colombo as retaliation for Colombo's aggressive military operations. The donors who have spent much time and effort on the Sri Lankan peace process will obviously be aggrieved.

There was nothing to gain by abandoning this defunct agreement other than to lose whatever international goodwill this country had. The only gain is for President Rajapakse and his junta, for they now expect the JVP to support them in parliament and provide the required majority. How long the JVP comrades will be able to continue performing these political karanang is to be seen. More importantly the Rajapakse brothers and the JVP better deliver that military victory they promised now because if they fail and with no prospect of peace talks in the aftermath of the CFA's abrogation, the country could well face the prospect of separation. The Rajapakse brothers and their fellow travellers of extremists have decided to go for broke and we can only pray it will not end up with a break.