With the government deciding to formally withdraw from the Ceasefire Agreement last week, the stage was set for a no-holds-barred war between the security forces and the LTTE even as the JVP seized the political initiative in the south by forcing President Mahinda Rajapakse’s hand through a pre budget deal that left him internationally isolated.

It was always the game plan of the JVP to push the government into an extremist agenda and leave the UPFA administration at the mercy of the Marxists and the ideal opportunity presented itself during the budget which the red brigade seized with both hands knowing fully well the Rajapakse brothers will do what it takes to stay in office.

This strategy the JVP initially put into play in 2004 by entering into a pact with the SLFP and securing 39 seats in parliament, making them the foundation on which that administration was built but soon found then President Chandrika Kumaratunga not as pliable as they would have liked and the parting of ways came with the P-TOMS agreement in 2005.

The long term strategy of the JVP is to hijack the SLFP base and become the alternative to the UNP and for that it was imperative to destroy the party from within and isolate it internationally as well as from the moderate forces in the south. With that objective in mind, they once again jumped the SLFP bandwagon at the 2005 presidential election and set an extremist agenda for Rajapakse.

Given the hardline demands the JVP made which included the abrogation of the CFA, confine Sri Lanka to a unitary state, defeat the LTTE militarily and evict the Norwegian facilitators, the President had very little maneuverability in view of the delicate arithmetic in parliament and the Marxists slowly but surely started turning the screws from the very onset of the Rajapakse administration.

It is to shake himself free from this Marxists’ stranglehold that the President entered into a MoU with the UNP but in what was a colossal political blunder he sabotaged that pact by inducting 18 UNP defectors into the government which saw the Marxists once again parting ways leaving the government majority delicately poised for the second time in as many years.

And then came the budget, which saw the JVP demanding of the government to abrogate the CFA and pursue a military solution to the conflict if the party’s support was required in addition to pruning the cabinet to 35, whilst at the same time privately telling the opposition they would vote against the budget, thus making the administration look vulnerable.

It is as part of this strategy the JVP voted against the government during the second reading of the budget having failed to secure their demands giving rise to fear among government ranks that defeat during the third reading was imminent, necessitating damage control measures.

Such was the duplicity practised by the JVP to force its agenda on the government, two senior MPs met with SLFP (M) Convener Mangala Samaraweera three days before the third reading vote and urged him not to give up plans to defeat the government, assuring in the process their support.

Likewise, while speculation mounted on how the Muslim Congress and the CWC would vote on the budget, a senior JVP member buttonholed, SLMC livewire Basheer Segu Dawood in parliament and told him to take a decision based on the assumption the JVP would vote against the budget. A similar assurance was also given to National Heritage Minister Anura Bandaranaike, and their crossovers made the government extremely vulnerable paving the way thereby for the JVP to force the President to their agenda.

And as anticipated, with the government going into panic with these developments, Presidential Advisor Basil Rajapakse looked to the JVP for support— and support they assured, demanding their pound of flesh and the end result was the abrogation of the CFA with the cabinet too to be pruned to 35.

What the JVP achieved through this exercise is isolate the Rajapakse government internationally as well as with the minorities and the moderate forces in the country, whilst at the same time pulling the rug under the feet of the UNP defectors thereby making the administration once again totally dependant on the Marxists for survival.

True, the President could have come out of the political corner he had painted himself into by calling for early elections and marginalising the JVP but that was a risk he was not prepared to run considering the outcome of the opinion polls he had commissioned and so it was back to the Marxists Rajapakse turned.

For, by this time the government had been reduced to a minority of 111 in parliament with the CWC’s long term support also very dicey and with the JVP calling on the President to honour the pre-budget deal, the stage was set for the CFA’s abrogation with statements made hinting at that possibility in the lead up to the new year.

And by last weekend, it became patently obvious where the government was heading with Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapakse no less stating the CFA should be abrogated with the Army Commander weighing in with the pledge to kill 3000 Tigers before August 2008 signalling the decision to pursue the military option.

That the defence expenditure is estimated at over Rs. 150 billion making the cost of killing a Tiger Rs. 50 million was obviously not math the government had worked out in projecting such figures.

Within 48 hours of these announcements saw UNP MP T. Maheswaran being murdered while praying at a Kovil in Kotahena and a deadly claymore attack in Slave Island targeting an army bus which inevitably led to civilian casualties as well, given the crowded location. That was the backdrop in which the cabinet of ministers met on Wednesday, January 2.

Prior to the cabinet meeting of course President Rajapakse discussed the abrogation of the CFA with his brothers Basil and Gotabaya, Secretary Lalith Weeratunga and Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickremanayake and decided the Premier should bell the cat since it was Ranil Wickremesinghe in his capacity as premier that had entered into the pact.

There was however to be no cabinet note or discussion paper on the agenda, with the President taking the ministers by surprise at the tail-end of the meeting simply stating, the Prime Minister has something to take up, and invited Wickremanayake to do the honours.

With that done Prime Minister Wickremanayake told the ministers he would like to propose the abrogation of the CFA since it was today only a paper document and served no purpose other than provide the LTTE with international mileage and recognition.

Wickremanayake then went on to trot out CFA violations by the LTTE which numbered over 10000 compared to some 2000 from the government side and said since the agreement itself has provision for its abrogation by giving two weeks notice, the cabinet should give the green light to do so.

Taking the cue from the Prime Minister was Foreign Minister Rohitha Bogollagama who too took the view the Tigers had received undue advantage and recognition internationally by being a party to an agreement with the government and that as such it should be remedied through the abrogation of the CFA.

Bogollagama went onto say the Sri Lankan situation had even become an issue at the US elections with candidates talking about it in their campaigns giving the LTTE unnecessary recognition all because of the CFA.

The Foreign Minister was referring in particular to comments made by Senator Hillary Clinton, the Democratic Party frontrunner who had earlier distinguished the LTTE from other terrorist organisations during a campaign meeting, raising heckles in Sri Lanka.

Interestingly, LTTE senior member, considered the party’s ideologue, K.V. Balakumaran seized on Clinton’s comments and in an interview to the ‘National Television of Tamil Eelam’ (NTT) just 24 hours earlier had said, "Apart from US policy related implications, the significance to Sri Lanka of Senator Clinton’s statement on ‘terrorism’ can be assured from the shock waves the statement generated in Sri Lanka’s south."

Balakumar according to TamilNet also pointed out in the interview that the conduct of the LTTE during the peace talks sponsored by Norway would have shown the democratic West on the maturing diplomatic approach of the Tiger movement and their willingness to engage in settling disputes through negotiations,.

"He points out the equations raised by former US Ambassador to Sri Lanka, Mr. Lunstead, in his report whether US failed to communicate its views to the Tiger leadership accurately, and what would have been the result if LTTE had been invited to the 2003 Washington conference, as additional evidence of continued evaluation of policy towards LTTE within the US administration," TamilNet also reported.

Such responses coupled with the US decision to stop all military aid to Sri Lanka would have no doubt been weighing on the mind of Bogollagama when he told the ministers Wednesday, "the CFA has given the LTTE more status," with the President nodding his assent.

Even more vocal in calling for the CFA’s abrogation was Defence Spokesperson, Minister Keheliya Rambukwella who took the position the government should defeat the LTTE militarily without being restricted by paper documents and only thereafter deal with the democratic Tamil parties.

Said Rambukwella — "In 2002 the CFA was signed by then Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and Pirapaharan, with Norway as facilitator. That was done by the then government in good faith to achieve peace. During that period, with the signing of the Oslo Agreement, which almost gave federalism, Pirapaharan withdrew from that position and the peace process was abandoned for about a year."

Added the Minister — "It is after President Mahinda Rajapakse assumed office that the peace process was reactivated leading to Geneva 1 and Geneva 2. During this period the LTTE never showed their bona fides. Then their final act was the suicide attack on Gen. Sarath Fonseka while talks were going on. And at talks too, they wanted to only discuss the CFA and the SLMM. In Oslo having two weeks notice on who was going to represent the government, they withdrew at the table stating our team was not powerful enough. Now there is a shift in policy as far as the government is concerned. The shift in policy is that whatever agreements there may be, national security will not be compromised."

He went on to say with the LTTE having violated the CFA over 10,000 times and the government nearly 2000, going by the CFA was a futile exercise especially considering LTTE’s targeting of civilians.

"Therefore lets deal with the ground realities and move away from the CFA and defeat the LTTE militarily," Rambukwella charged.

Agreeing with Rambukwella was the President, who took the position that past governments have adopted the practise of continuing with agreements which have become redundant. He said from the time of the Thimpu talks, various agreements were reached but that none of them were revoked with policy changes of a new government.

"Since this agreement was signed by the former prime minister, let it be abrogated also by the Prime Minister since the President had no role to play in it. The Foreign Minister can do the ground work for the abrogation," President Rajapakse said.

At this point, Public Administration Minister Karu Jayasuriya who was a senior minister in the UNP government which entered into the CFA asked whether a political solution cannot be presented at the same time as the abrogation of the agreement only to receive a response in the negative.

The President said whilst steps would be taken immediately to abrogate the CFA, a political solution based on the 13th Amendment to the Constitution will be introduced later in January.

That however is not the reality with the All Party Representative Committee unlikely to finalise their proposals before February and in any event the formula worked out by the Tissa Vitharana committee goes beyond the 13th Amendment. It necessarily follows, the APRC formula will not find favour with the JVP, SLFP or the JHU making it too a futile exercise.

At the same time, any proposals submitted by the President based on the 13th Amendment will now not find acceptance from the UNP, LSSP, CP, CWC, SLMC, UPF or the TNA making it an equally futile exercise.

In fact, when Minister Douglas Devananda proposed to the APRC the full implementation of the 13th Amendment as a way out of the deadlock it was rejected by the other parties, which necessarily means, the government is facing gridlock on a political solution, leaving it open for the likes of the JVP and the JHU to call the shots.

And even as the JVP gets a stranglehold of the government by forcing it to their agenda, the international pressure is bound to mount on Sri Lanka following the CFA abrogation with Co-Chairs US, Japan, Norway and the EU expected to take a tough stand especially on the human rights front, now that they no longer have to perform a balancing act as a key player in the peace process.

The Co-Chairs were born out of the CFA and with its abrogation, they will no longer have a combined role to play giving the EU in particular more leeway in pursuing the human rights resolution against Sri Lanka in addition to the withdrawal of the GSP plus facility for the garment sector which will severely impact on the economy in general and the garment industry in particular.

What the international community is focusing particularly on is the impact the abrogation of the CFA would have on civilians and the initial salvo was fired by none other than Norway’s Minister for International Development Erik Solheim, followed by the Foreign Ministry where this point was made forcefully.

Said Solheim "I regret that the government is taking this serious step. This comes on top of the increasingly frequent and brutal acts of violence perpetrated by both parties and I am deeply concerned that the violence and hostilities will now escalate even further."

Having said that Solheim draws attention to the CFA’s abrogation leading to the withdrawal of the SLMM and adds, "This would weaken efforts to protect the civilian population, which would be most regrettable."

Hot on the heels of the Norwegian statement came one from the US with Statement Department Spokesman Sean McCormack stating the United States is troubled by the Sri Lankan government’s decision to terminate the 2002 Ceasefire Agreement, while Canada also weighed in with a statement from Foreign Minister Maxime Bernier expressing regret at the government’s decision.

Said Bernier — "We remain deeply concerned about the impact of the escalating violence on civilians, humanitarian workers and human rights defenders. Violence will not produce solutions, it will only bring more tragedy to the people of Sri Lanka. We call on all parties to respect human rights and to work urgently towards political solutions that will bring peace to Sri Lanka."

These references to civilian casualties are not isolated words but those which have deep meaning in the context of the human rights resolutions Sri Lanka is facing at the UN and, in the absence of the CFA and the SLMM as a monitoring mechanism to fall back on, it will inevitably strengthen the hand of those countries and organisations pushing for UN action in Sri Lanka.

The Co-Chair ambassadors in Colombo too met on Thursday and followed up with a meeting with Bogollagama where the impact the abrogation would have on the civilians was once again the focal point.

That very day however the government informed Norway in writing its withdrawal from the CFA.

It is in this overall context the government has blundered in abrogating the CFA since in real terms nothing turned on it as long as it remained confined to a paper document.

For all intents and purposes, the CFA was defunct but by the government going and withdrawing it to win over the JVP, a hornets’ nest has been stirred, giving the LTTE the moral high ground internationally.

And the Tigers while not jumping to comment on the government’s decision simply made it known they were equal to the task of waging a bloody war with Balakumaran making their case in the interview with NTT.

Said he — "The international community has been vacillating in taking decisive actions on Sri Lanka because they are unable to relate their own interest to the chaotically unfolding political and military situation in Sri Lanka. Only the demonstration of military strength by the Tigers can bring clarity to the situation, for the international community to correctly relate their interest and assertively engage."