It is still a one man show in Pakistan. President Pervez Musharraf, who threw out a democratic government,  ruled for eight years and manipulated the constitution to become the president for the second term, still stands firm as the political whirlwinds swirl around him.

Within the country, the two main political parties - the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), now being led by Asif Zaradari, the husband of the assassinated leader Benazir Bhutto, and the Pakistan Muslim League PLM (N) led by Nawaz Sharif are demanding that he steps down from presidency for free and fair elections to be held.

Radical Islamic forces have been and still are attempting to assassinate him. But the former army commander is not budging.

Scotland Yard

Responding to demands within the country as well as from abroad, particularly America, that an international commission investigate the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, he only agreed to  ask for assistance of Britain's Scotland Yard to help Pakistani investigators.

Sri Lankans know the farcical value of calling in Scotland Yard for such investigations such as in the Lalith Athulathmudali and N. Raviraj assassination probes. In investigations of such politically charged killings, the famed investigators of Scotland Yard, ignorant of local politics and procedures are reduced to comical characters such as Thompson and Thomson depicted by a local cartoonist when they were here.

Elections

Parliamentary elections that were scheduled for January 8 have been postponed to February 18 even though both leaders of the PPP and the MLM (N) wanted it to be held on schedule because the sympathy vote for Benazir and antipathy for Musharraf would be great if elections are held early. But last week the Elections Commission appointed by Musharraf decided otherwise.

The President's opponents demand that he steps down if free and fair elections are to be held, and democracy and political stability return to Pakistan while the Federation of Pakistan is not to disintegrate. Others say that Musharraf is the only stabilising force able to hold the country which has been wracked by terrorist violence and Islamic extremism.

The battle lines, it is said are drawn between the military backed government of Musharraf and the 'moderate majority.' The moderates declare that they would not settle for anything less than genuine democracy. They want doing away with the courts stacked with Musharraf's appointees, replacement of the partial interim government of Musharraf, removal of gags placed on the media, release of political prisoners and appointment of a neutral elections commissioner for free and fair elections to be held

Enlightened moderation

During this entire political crisis the military dictator has given away very little. He gave up his post as army chief of staff under pressure of the American allies, restored the constitution he had suspended, removed martial law and lifted the emergency.

Even though the liberal moderates now are bitterly opposed to the President, it is pointed out by political analysts that after he seized power, the Pakistani elite believed in his slogan of enlightened moderation and did not consider him to be a general in uniform. Musharraf, by his suave ways and clever posturing both at home and abroad, was considered an enlightened Western liberal.

When he staged the coup against Nawaz Sharif in 1999, most civil society leaders welcomed him, an analyst points out. His anti democratic illiberal stances were ignored and were considered as a 'liberator' when their lifestyles were protected at the cost of democracy, particularly after 9/11. This influential section supported him for seven years till the he clashed with the judiciary and the lawyers took place.

Can democratic parties govern?

If free and fair elections are held it is very likely that the PPP and the PLM (N) would emerge winners particularly because they have agreed to combine their forces. But the combination of the two forces which have been bitter rivals has never been tested and whether a power sharing government is possible, is anybody's guess.

A crucial issue that is ignored is that whichever party that is elected will have to toe the line of the army - the actual power in the country. The army has ruled the country directly for a greater part after independence and even when civilian governments were in power they had to toe the army line.

Zulficar Ali Bhutto, Benazir's father was hanged by army strongman Zia-ul Haq, and Benazir Bhutto was sacked twice from the premiership at the behest of the army, while Nawaz Sharif was thrown out in a coup by Musharraf in 1999. Any other civilian government is very likely to be subjected to the same conditions.

But Musharraf still holds the reins and has the backing of his former army colleagues. Unless he is removed by an army coup or assassinated, he is unlikely to be replaced, however much liberal Pakistanis may wish.

American interest

Meanwhile the situation in Pakistan has become an issue in the American presidential election. While President Bush and his administration continue to back their faithful ally despite him becoming an embarrassment, the Democrats are using Musharraf against the Republicans.

Hillary Clinton, the Democratic Party front runner last week was severely critical of the Pakistani President. She has accused the Bush administration of giving a 'blank cheque' to Musharraf and refers to the 'failed policies in Pakistan.' The Democratic Party had made known its policies on Pakistan at the primaries, analysts have said.

Perhaps it would be of interest to the Sri Lankan government to study this aggressive foreign policy that is being pursued by Hillary Clinton, the front runner.