The official results of the Zimbabwe elections have not been released at the time of writing these comments Friday but unofficial reports said that Robert Mugabe who led the country's fight for independence since the 1960s (when it was known as Southern Rhodesia) is now facing defeat.

His party, the Zimbabwean African National Union - Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) has polled the largest number of votes over the rival Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) but the MDC has won a greater number of seats in parliament. In the presidential election, Mugabe's rival Morgan Tsvangirai had polled more votes than Mugabe but not enough to score an absolute majority, and there could be a run off poll, reports said.

Whether he continues as president or not, it will be a severe setback for the man who had ruled the country since independence for 28 years and the Western world will be rejoicing about the fate of the man whom they have loved to hate over the years.

But even his bitterest critics have conceded that Mugabe still commands massive support in the rural areas and is still respected by African leaders for his leading role in the liberation of his country from white rule.

Land for whites only

Mugabe has been accused of many things: racism, authoritarianism, brutal crackdown on democratic opposition, corruption, illegal land grabs, rigging of elections, causing unprecedented famine, among many other crimes and misdemeanours. Most of these charges are undeniable. But the circumstances that prevailed over which he had little control, despite the absolute power he had grabbed, has to be considered.

One mind boggling fact which is the root cause of all Zimbabwe's problems today stands out: 70 per cent of the arable land of the country was owned by just one percent of the white farmers while the poor, black Zimbabweans had only little bits of inhospitable land, and most, no land at all.

The British took over the country, then known as South Rhodesia from the British African Company in 1918 and then proceeded with a land distribution strategy that virtually gave over the country to white farmers. Three areas were demarcated: White Areas where only white farmers could own land, the second area was known as Tribal Lands held on a collective basis and the third area was for blacks.

The best and the most fertile land in the highlands fell in the white areas while the poor blacks had only small bits of land, infertile and hard to cultivate or no land at all. Some blacks whose ancestors generations before had occupied lands in the White Areas were ejected from their lands.

Guerrilla fighter

Attempts by the British government to grant a measure of self- government and a more equitable land distribution system was strongly resisted by white farmers and in 1965  white farmers backed the Unilateral Declaration of Independence (UDI) by the then Prime Minister, Ian Smith and broke with Britain over proposals for constitutional reform.

Mugabe formed ZANU, and with other groups commenced a guerrilla war which finally led to independence in 1980.

Zimbabwe was Britain's responsibility but the attempts to work out land reform failed such as the scheme they proposed: 'Willing Buyer and Willing Seller' under which farmers unwilling to stay in Zimbabwe would be bought out by funds provided by the British through the Zimbabwe government.

But very few of the white farmers were willing to sell their properties. Britain later withdrew from the land reform programme accusing Mugabe of giving land to his cronies. They said they had paid œ44 million for the effort but Zimbabwe says that only œ17 million was paid.

Meanwhile Mugabe built up his authoritarian rule. In 1987 he abolished seats reserved for the whites in parliament and also abolished the post of prime minister, creating and becoming the executive president. The politburo of his party - ZANU-PF was said to be more powerful than the cabinet. And since 1980 he has won every election with accusations of rigging being made both at home and abroad.

Referendum

He continued his land distribution efforts while charges were being made that some of the lands of whites which had been sold had ended up with his cabinet ministers, high government officials and wealthy local businessmen.

A series of reforms through amendments of the Land Acquisition Act from the 1980s and 1990s were made but the whites held on to their lands.

In 2000 Mugabe had his first setback when he held a referendum on the constitution that would have empowered the government to acquire lands without compensation. This proposal was defeated but the pro Mugabe War Veteran's Association organised marches on white owned farmlands and it resulted in 110,000 square kilometres of land being seized.

This led to absolute chaos in the land already struck with an unprecedented famine, the largest AIDS epidemic in Africa, and the highest inflation rate in the world, over 100,000%

Inflation

Mugabe is being blamed for the record rate of inflation but there is no doubt that the sanctions imposed by the United States, the European Union and Australia have contributed greatly to the human disaster.

The US is using ZIDERA (Zimbabwe Democratic and Economy Recovery Act 2001) against the country. It uses voting rights and influence as the main donor to lending agencies such as the IMF, World Bank and Africa Development Bank to stop applications for loans, loan re- scheduling and international debt cancellation. With the IMF and the World Bank not doing business with Zimbabwe the adverse effects on credit and investment ratings follow.

Poor Zimbabwe has been desperately short of foreign exchange for four years and been unable to obtain finance facilities from international lenders to inject into the economy. Hence the record rate of inflation.

All these sanctions are said to be 'smart sanctions' that target only Mugabe loyalists but reports say that it is killing men, women and particularly vulnerable children already hit by a famine and a devastating AIDS epidemic.

Sanctions in Iran and Zimbabwe have shown that they do not kill politicians and soldiers but only the innocent. Since all this suffering is imposed in the name of human rights, rule of law and democracy, let us hope that the innocents of Zimbabwe would be spared, irrespective of Mugabe's victory or defeat.