While India and Sri Lanka during their 60 years of independence have had continuous parliamentary democracy — Sri Lanka having only a botched military coup — Pakistan the other South Asian neighbour which also gained independence at the same time, has had alternating civilian and military governments.

Indications were that this year’s February elections in Pakistan, held under tumultuous conditions, would result in the country reverting to civilian rule; but last week the coalition of the Pakistan People’s Alliance (PPP) and the PML (N) appeared to be cracking up. That could only result in President Pervez Musharraf holding on to power although after the February elections his position appeared to be precarious.

Nawaz Sharif, the leader of the PML (N), twice prime minister has every reason to throw out Musharraf from the President’s House. Sharif who was instrumental in appointing Musharraf the chief of staff of the Pakistan armed forces was thrown out of power in a coup staged by Musharraf and sent into exile for a near decade.

The February elections resulted in his party emerging as the second biggest party in the National State Assembly and gaining control of the all important Punjab State Assembly as well, but he could not secure an absolute majority there.

Sharif and Benazir Bhutto, also two time prime minister, were arch rivals but after her assassination Zaradari, the widow of Bhutto, took over the PPP and Sharif consented to join the PPP government led by Zaradari. The differences were great but Sharif’s desire to oust Musharraf from the presidency appeared to be his prime objective.

Sharif’s priority was the re-installation of Chief Justice Ifthikar Choudhry — who was sacked by Musharraf — with many other judges of the Supreme Court. Musharraf obviously feared Chief Justice Choudhry declaring the extra constitutional strategies deployed by Musharraf to be sworn in as president for the second term by Pakistan’s Electoral College being ultra vires to the constitution.

Sacking of Choudhry resulted in widespread protests by Pakistan’s civil society, particularly the lawyers. They are still agitating for the return of Choudhry and other sacked judges.

The agreement between Zaradari and Sharif before coalescing was that the judges would be reinstated by April 30. Sharif however agreed for a postponement to May 12 and with Zaradari still dragging his feet on the issue, Sharif pulled out his ministers from the cabinet.

But Sharif appears not to be thinking in terms of bringing down the government. He would provide support from the opposition benches, he had said. He also cannot afford to antagonise Zaradari whose party support he needs to keep control of the Punjab State Assembly.

Many proposals have been made to work out a deal. One such proposal has been to have two chief justices and enlarging the Supreme Court bench to accommodate the incumbent judges as well as the sacked judges, upping the total number of judges from the maximum limit of 17 to 27. These Pakistani political strategies would well out do Byzantine conspiracies, the strategies of the Indian Machiavelli, Chanakya and even Machiavelli himself.

Wheels within wheels are at play. One way to bring in the sacked judges would be through adoption of a resolution in the National State Assembly. But there is the possibility of the incumbent judges striking out this proposal as being ultra vires to the constitution.

It is perhaps to circumvent such a possibility that last week Zaradari said that the resolution would be adopted by both houses of parliament — the National State Assembly and the Senate comprising representatives of the four state assemblies.

There is also speculation that if the sacked chief justice and his fellow judges are brought in they could declare the procedure adopted to have Musharraf elected for the second term as being against the constitution. There is also the possibility that the sacked judges back in office would declare illegal the pardons given to Benazir Bhutto and Zaradari for violation of foreign exchange laws and money laundering. That would result in supreme chaos for it would incapacitate the leader of the governing party.

Above all these possibilities is that Musharraf as the president can dissolve parliament itself and take over power as other Pakistani military dictators have done! Musharraf being the former Commander of the Army no doubt has the backing of some of his former colleagues. But whether Lt. Gen. Kayani who succeeded Musharraf and shown the inclination to keep the army out of politics would go along with Musharraf, is subject to debate.

Over and above all these speculations and intrigues, is Uncle Sam, the world’s only superpower. Pakistan is of vital strategic interest to America and it has pumped in an estimated US$ 11 billion for its role in the War Against Terrorism. And Musharraf is their trusted ally. The possibility of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons falling into the hands of those like the al Qaeda and other Islamist extremists are matters of prime security concern.

It is widely believed that a power sharing arrangement between Benazir Bhutto and Pervez Musharraf was worked out in Washington and it was this arrangement that enabled the charges against Bhutto and Zaradari to be waived off to enable their return to the country.

The Pakistani press has been reporting the frequent meetings between top American diplomats, Musharraf and PPP officials, including Zaradari. Last week an American spokesman in Islamabad stressed that the main concern of the US was the agreements that were being worked out between the PPP and the Taliban militants living on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.

Indeed the agreements seem to have some effect because the horrendous bombings that were taking place in Pakistan attributed to Taliban, al Qaeda and extremist Islamic elements have ceased. But what would follow if these agreements cracked under US pressure?