Indo-Sri Lanka relations: Will history repeat itself?

The visit of the three most powerful bureaucratic Brahmins of New Delhi to Sri Lanka last weekend did not attract much attention in the outside world but political analysts in both countries attached much significance to it.

The official reason given by the Sri Lanka government spokesmen that it was a routine visit in connection with the oncoming SAARC Summit seems hardly credible in view of the standing of the three officials - National Security Adviser M.K. Narayanan, Foreign Secretary Shiv Shanker Menon and Defence Secretary R. Vijay Singh.

Dj vu

As a keen student of Indo-Sri Lankan relations for more than 25 years this visit caused an eerie feeling of - as the French say - Dj vu (it happened before) in us. Was the history of July 1987 repeating itself again as when our powerful neighbour intervened at first with Tamil Nadu riff-raff attempting a bum boat invasion, followed by Indian Air Force planes dropping bread and parippu on Jaffna and Indian troops landing in our country?

Intervention need not take place in the same form of intervention as in 1987 but it could take many other forms in these times when the Right to Protect (Really Intervene) - R2P - has become a fashionable doctrine in international relations among big powers.

And India indeed, if not yet a Global Power, is rubbing shoulders with them. There are parallels of the causes that led to intervention in 1987 in the prevailing situation today on both sides of the Palk Strait.

In the 1980s India was unhappy with Sri Lanka's efforts to crush northern terrorism even though they had organised armed Sri Lankan Tamil groups, financed and had trained them for reasons best known to New Delhi. They wanted devolution of power to the north and east where at that time the pro-Indian TULF held sway.

Hundreds if not thousands of Tamils had fled across the Palk Strait to Tamil Nadu following clashes between Tamil terrorist groups and the Sri Lankan armed forces as it has happened once again. President J.R. Jayewardene decided to wipe out northern terrorism with a massive military operation code named 'Operation Liberation' as the ongoing military operations now taking place.

There was unrest in Tamil Nadu then as there is now on the Sri Lankan situation with supporters of the Tamil groups beating their war drums and pressurising New Delhi. Citing all these reasons - 'South Indian compulsions' - New Delhi declared that India will not permit Sri Lankan troops to take over Jaffna where terrorist leaders, particularly Velupillai Pirapaharan, were directing operations. President Jayewardene ignored Indian admonitions and went ahead and then India moved in.

Indira Doctrine

There are other parallels as well. India under Indira Gandhi and later Rajiv Gandhi did not want powers outside the region and even within it, Pakistan, being involved in the Sri Lankan conflict. Indira Gandhi at that time pronounced what came to be known as the Indira Doctrine - no power inside or outside the region can go to the help of a country within the region, if India considers it inimical to her interests.

At that time India viewed America with great suspicion and considered it as a 'hidden hand' attempting to destabilise India. Indira Gandhi suspected Jayewardene of intending to give Trincomalee harbour for use as an American base.

Chinese bogey

Now the Indian Defence Advisor Narayanan has been saying it loud and clear on many occasions that Sri Lankan should not purchase armaments from China and Pakistan. Reports from New Delhi say that the Indian government is perturbed at Sri Lanka's tilt toward China, Pakistan and Iran - more so about China.

Chinese assistance has been secured to build a harbour at Hambantota which would be just a few kilometres away from the world's main shipping lines stretching from Europe to South and South East Asia which includes India. Other Chinese projects have been preferred to Indian offers such as the Norochcholai coal power generating plant and other Chinese investments and the growing influence in Sri Lanka is being viewed with alarm.

Having refused to sell arms and offered only 'humanitarian assistance' New Delhi now wants Sri Lankan to purchase only Indian arms. An IANS (an Indian news service) report on the visit of the New Delhi triad quoted an Indian official saying that India hopes Sri Lanka can find a peaceful solution to the ethnic conflict within the framework of a united Sri Lanka, acceptable to all communities and that there was no military solution.

This is the same manthram that has been repeated since the 1980s and the Mahinda Rajapakse government contrary to Indian expectations claims that it is steaming ahead for a military victory.

Indian woes

Meanwhile the Congress government of Sonia Gandhi is teetering on the brink with a general election close at hand. The Indian Marxist parties are threatening to pull out of the Congress led government coalition if India goes through the civilian nuclear deal with America and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh who had worked hard at forging the nuclear deal last week was threatening not to attend the G-8 Summit to be held soon because it would be embarrassing for him to meet President George Bush if India goes back on its word.

Such moves would result in the Congress coalition losing its parliamentary majority and the government collapsing.  Meanwhile the Congress Party has lost many elections to state assemblies, the last being Karnataka.

Now LTTE supporters in Tamil Nadu such as Vaiko and Karunanidhi are beating their war drums pressurising New Delhi to make the Rajapakse government call off the military offensive. Even if the Congress government falls, it will still need Tamil Nadu support to win an election and return to power. Thus, Indian intervention in some form or the other is not merely hypothetical but quite plausible.