By
Ruan Pethiyagoda
A
nationwide poll published last month by the
Institute of Irish Studies at the University
of Liverpool has shown how frighteningly
well the Rajapakse government's extremist
propaganda has been soaked into the minds of
its constituent vote base.
The
'Peace Poll' which was commissioned by the
Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA) and was
spread over every province except the
Northern Province, assessed the views of
Sinhalese, Tamils, Up Country Tamils and
Muslims on a large number of issues relating
to the causes and possible solutions to the
ethnic conflict.
Using
a method that has proven successful in other
conflict areas, the peace poll went beyond
probing into people's opinions on terms such
as terrorism, human rights, federalism and
unitary states, and instead asked about
several more in-depth issues.
The
results show a great deal of polarisation
between the communities on the causes and
effects of the conflict in Sri Lanka today.
As the survey was conducted with a random
sample of 1,700 people, statistical
mathematics predicts that it would have an
accuracy of 99%, with an error margin of
plus or minus 3%.
State
control of media
As
an example, the poll showed that only 7% of
Sinhalese people feel that 'state control
over media' is a 'very significant' problem
faced by Sri Lanka. The actual result could
be anywhere between 4% and 10% with a 99%
level of accuracy. Either way this is a
frighteningly enlightening result that shows
how happy the majority of Sinhalese people
are with the government's barrage of
propaganda, and how few of them believe in
the value of an independent or free media.
The
number of problems that a majority of
Sinhalese feel are 'very significant' is
also startlingly limited. The only two
problems that the majority of Sinhalese feel
very significant are the 'continued violence
of the LTTE' (60%) and 'abuse of human
rights by the LTTE' (59%).
More
Sinhalese (40%) feel that 'corrupt
politicians' is a more serious problem than
discrimination of Tamils after independence,
which only 12% of Sinhalese consider a 'very
significant' problem.
Only
3% of Sinhalese have found it significant
that 'all Tamils' are 'being treated like
terrorists by the security forces' and
similarly only 2% feel that there is
something wrong with the armed forces being
predominantly Sinhalese.
Significant
problem
Only
37% of Sinhalese feel that the ongoing war
is a significant problem for the country,
compared with 73% of Tamils who feel that it
is a burning issue. Likewise, despite 72% of
Tamils feeling that 'escalating violence in
the last two years' is a serious issue, only
31% of Sinhalese feel the same way.
Although
a majority of Sinhalese could only agree on
two issues that were seriously affecting the
country, the Tamils polled were more
outspoken on a number of issues. A majority
(over 50%) found a total of 11 issues 'very
significant' compared to the two issues
highlighted by the majority of Sinhalese.
(See box for detail of these issues).
However,
despite the government's continued
systematic persecution of Tamils, there is
little 'rebellious' feeling among the
majority of their populace. Only 37% of
Tamils fear that 'a defeated LTTE will give
rise to new armed groups' in a sense
implying that the majority feels that once
the LTTE have been destroyed, the war would
be over.
Similarly,
only 38% of Tamils have found fault with the
fact that the armed forces are predominantly
Sinhalese, whilst a mere 37% are
disappointed with the sectarian ethnic
makeup of the police. A remarkably low 29%
of Tamils are concerned that 'upcountry
Tamils do not own their own homes,' a
problem that only 10% of Sinhalese found
very significant.
Did
not own homes
Surprisingly
again, a mere 55% of Upcountry Tamils were
upset by the fact that they did not own
their own homes, indicating either a
complacent or 'tamed' Tamil society in the
highlands. Remarkably however, there was far
more consensus amongst up-country Tamils on
identifying significant problems facing Sri
Lanka.
While
the Sinhalese and mainstream Tamil
communities identified 2 and 11 problems
respectively, the Upcountry Tamils were
agreed by majority on 30 issues, shown in a
separate box. 71% voiced dissent at 'all
Tamils being treated like terrorists by the
security forces' despite a relatively low
security forces presence in the Central
Province.
Seventy
eight percent highlighted the 'failure to
implement language rights,' a problem
recognised by just 44% of mainstream Tamils
and 12% of Sinhalese. This outspokenness by
the Upcountry Tamils is a recent phenomenon,
as they are usually kept docile and placated
by the handouts of Arumugam Thondaman's
powerful CWC union and political party.
The
dissent among the upcountry Tamils would
most likely have been caused by the
increasing cost of living, and renewed
persecution over the last two years -
problems that are not 'problems' in the eyes
of most Sinhalese, according to this recent
poll.
A
majority of Muslims (51%) are angered by the
failure of successive governments to
implement language rights while 44% of
Muslims, predominantly in the Eastern
Province, were concerned about the abuse of
human rights by the police and armed forces.
From
within the darkness there were however a few
encouraging signs. Only 30% of Sinhalese
believe that the LTTE 'can only be weakened
by war' as the government has often claimed,
and a mere 23% share the government's battle
cry against 'International NGOs operating in
Sri Lanka.'
Similarly,
only 16% of Sinhalese truly fear that
'devolution of power to the north and east
will lead to the break-up of Sri Lanka.' It
follows that there is a lot of consensus
amongst all communities on the possible
solutions to the prevailing conflict.
Eighty
seven percent of Sri Lankans of all
communities are agreed that 'all the people
of Sri Lanka must come together through
their representatives to solve the problem.'
A majority of 55% of Sri Lankans also
believe that the government should stop the
war, and this result is affected strongly by
the 45% of Sinhalese who indicated that it
is 'unacceptable' to stop the ongoing war
against the LTTE.
Likewise
only 38% of Sinhalese are against restarting
the peace process although 52% of Sinhalese
are against the government negotiating 'with
elected Tamil representatives.' Also 58% of
Sinhalese are against the government
negotiating 'with ex-Tamil militants'
showing a deep distrust amongst the majority
community of groups such as the EPDP and
TMVP.
Transforming
the LTTE
Hatred
of the LTTE is naturally still rife amongst
the Sinhalese. 64% of the majority community
are completely against transforming the LTTE
using 'political and economic incentives' to
find a settlement.
When
it comes to human rights, the barbarity
displayed by the two militant sides of the
conflict is absent amongst all communities
of the populace. Barely 7% of Sinhalese
think it is even 'tolerable' for the
government to deny freedom of movement,
speech, press or assembly, or rights to a
fair trial.
Five
percent of Sinhalese feel it is either
'acceptable' or 'tolerable' for the
government forces to 'abuse emergency
powers' although none at all believe that
any abuses of human rights by the state are
either desirable or essential.
Tamil
people by and large are also against the
abuse of human rights by the LTTE. Only 3%
believe it is even tolerable for the Tigers
to attack civilians, although 4% believe
that the terrorists can be allowed to launch
suicide attacks and a slightly larger number
(4% - 6%) think it is 'tolerable' for the
Tigers to deny freedom of speech, press,
assembly or movement.
Four
percent of Tamils are actually in favour of
the government's 'arbitrary arrest and
detention policy' when only half that number
(2%) felt that the LTTE should be given the
same liberty, demonstrating a relative bias
towards the central government over the LTTE
in the minds of most Tamils, contrary to
Tiger claims of
being the sole representative of the Tamil
people.
Problem
of discrimination
When
asked specifically, all communities seem to
recognise the need to solve the problem of
discrimination. 55% of all Sri Lankans see
the need to 'ensure full implementation of
Tamil as an official language.' This number
is weighted down by a sizable 34% of
Sinhalese - the nationalist element - who
feel that it is 'unacceptable' to implement
Tamil as an official language.
In
a curious twist, only 11% of Sinhalese said
it was unacceptable to implement an
'Equality Commission' to monitor 'all
government policies and distribution of
resources.' 58% of the population favoured
the implementation of such a commission with
a significant group answering 'don't know,'
highlighting the scope for further education
of the citizenry on the available solutions
(other than war) for resolution of the
ethnic conflict.
The
poll also highlighted a motivation amongst
all communities to help ensure good
governance, a school of thought that the
main opposition parties, the UNP and JVP,
have thus far been slow to capitalise on.
82% of respondents said it was either
essential or desirable to depoliticise the
public service and 78% agreed on the need
for 'effective institutions to combat
corruption,' highlighting a broad based
frustration over public wastage.
Amusingly,
59% of all Sri Lankans feel that it is
either essential or desirable to implement
'restrictions on MPs crossing over' between
political parties. Also 63% of people from
all communities are agreed that
'appointments of the Supreme Court judges
and other high posts should be made on the
recommendation of the Constitutional
Council' established by the 17th Amendment
to the Constitution.
Constitutional
reform
On
the task of constitutional reform, there is
a great deal of debate between communities.
52% of Sinhalese feel that Buddhism should
be given 'special status' in Sri Lanka,
while a majority of all other communities
(50% Tamil, 64% Upcountry Tamil, 50% Muslim)
are against such a move.
Existing
proposals for devolution packages have
little support amongst the Sinhalese. 53%
are against merging the North and East
Provinces, and 86% of Sinhalese are against
the creation of an autonomous unit for the
Upcountry Tamils in the Central Province.
Eighty
four percent of Sinhalese are against the
SLMC's request for an autonomous unit for
Muslims in the Eastern Province and an
overwhelming 77% of Sinhalese are against
making Sri Lanka a federal state. 61% are
against redrawing borders to reduce the
number of provinces in the country although
49% of Sinhalese feel it would be wrong to
have 'no devolution' at all.
In
government's favour
The
poll has shown if nothing else that
President Mahinda Rajapakse's witty and
carefully cultivated media and publicity
campaigns have been extremely successful in
swinging popular support in his government's
favour despite overwhelming odds on the
ground realities of the economic and
security situation around the island.
The
main opposition UNP, portrayed by the
government to be overly pandering to the
minorities, is at risk of losing support not
for itself, but for its traditional secular
ideals, amongst the majority Sinhalese
community, if they allow the government's
propaganda campaigns to march on unchecked
whilst they struggle to organise an
effective front to take on the UPFA
alliance.
There
was a large number of undecided or wavering
respondents in this peace poll, and which
direction they ultimately swing in, and thus
the balance of power and path to peace, will
be decided by the political forces that
first manage to swing them towards their own
viewpoint. As of now however, the Rajapakse
government is enjoying a chillingly
comfortable lead in the propaganda war.