Tigers will lose more land — Karuna

The Tiger call for a truce has come and gone and it hardly made any difference in the northern battle fronts.

Government troops kept up their forward momentum and according to the military establishment in Colombo they were closing in on cutting off the important Vellankulam-Mankulam road that links the northwestern coast with the A9. The 35km road has now become the focal point with troops moving north on line from Illappaikkadavai, west to the Vavunikulam tank in the east. The tank lies just south of Mallavai and Thunkkai, two important villages on the road.

If the road falls into government hands it would most certainly have a telling effect on Tiger supply routes from South India now that the only natural bay in the northwestern coast, Vidattalthivu, is also under government control.

Last week troops from Task Force One that has been moving on the western-most front, straddling the A 32 Mannar-Pooneryn road clashed with Tigers in the Adampankulam and Kalamadhu areas. The villages lie southeast of Vellankulam and on the Vellankulam-Mannar road.

Troops appear to be adopting a similar tactic that was seen during the capture of Vidattalthivu — that is, branching out of a northern frontal attack and moving in on Tiger positions on the flanks as well, especially strategically located towns like Vidattalthivu and now Vellankulam with several road access points approached on several fronts. The move last time around at Vidattalthivu cut off and stranded Tiger units who later had to use small boats to flee by sea.

On the A32, government troops have extended their control up to Mundampiddi, the last major village before Vellankulam. The army says that it is now on the southern border of Kilinochchi District that lies just beyond Vellankulam.

The 57th Division that has operated east of Task Force One clashed with Tigers at Kalvilan that lies southeast of Vellankulam.

At least one report by the Information Department said that government troops had cut into the Vellankulam-Mankulam road in one location by July 29. However it gave the location wrong when it said that it was Mundampiddi which lies south, and not east, of Vellankulam.

If troops gain substantive access and control on the road, it would severely hamper Tiger operations in areas west of the A9, according to military and Tiger experts, including one man who had led the Tigers against advancing government forces the last time when the two fought over the Wanni — Vinayagamoorthi Muralitharan alias Karuna (see box).

He told The Sunday Leader that the road is not only the main artery running towards the northwestern coast but was connected with a half dozen other minor roads that criss-cross the area, especially west of the A9. And the main meeting point of most of the road is the Thunkai/Malavai area.

Gaining control of at least stretches of the Vellankulam-Mankulam road by government troops will also put pressure on Tigers operating in areas southwest of Mankulam. They are already facing troops from the south where Task Force Two has been moving north and last week clashed with Tigers in the Palamoddai area and would not be able to fall back unless it is toward Mullaithivu through Oddusudan. As troops move further north on the Mannar-Vavuniya axis, linking up would be that much easier as the landmass between the coast and the A9 moving north, shrinks.

Sri Lanka watchers, especially those in India have been commenting in the past few days on how the Tigers would react to the advancing forces. There have been predictions that the Tigers would counter attack, once troops are stretched out, but no major counter attack has come, thus far.

The Tigers have put more resources and effort into attacking the Muhamalai line, like in August and October 2006, and this April. Last week also they fired artillery at the Muhamalai defences on July 29 morning.

The Tigers had used the 130mm guns placed at Kalmunai Point west of Muhamalai, in the Pooneryn area to fire about 10 rounds in rapid succession across the Kilali lagoon. The artillery fire however had only damaged some bunkers and caused minor injuries to two soldiers.

The Tigers have predicted time and again that they would counter attack, Political Head Balasingham Nadesan said in an interview with The Sunday Leader, a fortnight back.

Last week the deputy of the Sea Tigers known as Venayagam was quoted in pro-Tiger media as telling a group of fishermen in the Wanni that they would regain lost ground.

"Coming events will show what the real battle field strength is," Tiger military Spokesperson Rasiah Ilanthirayan said, reacting to the government’s rejection of the unilateral ceasefire as a ploy to get breathing space in the Wanni.

Whatever the Tiger stance has been, many now tend to go with the government argument that the Tigers wanted a truce as a military manoeuvre rather than as a genuine effort at breaking the deadlock over negotiations.

"A ceasefire even for 10 days would break the momentum of the Sri Lankan advance. That would provide a vital breathing space for the LTTE forces now under tremendous pressure to recuperate their losses, tighten up defences and be prepared to respond to the security forces better," Indian defence expert R. Hariharan wrote in his weekly update on the Sri Lankan war front.

He opined that the Tigers may also be looking for an international bailout option, the unilateral ceasefire being one such move in that direction.

He observed that the Tigers would have to decide whether they are going to attack government forces moving into the Wanni on four fronts along the Mannar-Vavuniya-Welioya axis or keep falling back.

"The LTTE has to halt the troops in their tracks in a series of delaying actions, or build a major offensive to cut the advancing military’s long line of communication at a place of its choosing. So can the LTTE do it? And if so, where will it do so?"

There is no doubt that the Tigers have dug deep defences along the paths where troops are moving north in an effort to slow down the advancing columns. Before they could enter Vidattalthivu area, troops had to manoeuvre through a huge earth mound, probably seven feet high. It ran through from just south of Vidattalthivu to Paramayalankulam, almost 10 km east.

Last week, further north, when troops reached the Mundampiddi area, they once again encountered deep trenches — this time dug into the banks of the Pali Aru (river).

When troops entered the area where the Sivam Kovil is located on July 27, south of Thunkkai and Malavai they once again came across eight feet deep trenches filled with water. Ironically among the vehicles that were forcibly taken by the Tigers from the Scandinavian relief agency, Norwegian Peoples’ Aid, was a land moving machine. A similar machine was reportedly recovered by troops in the Vidattalthivu area as well.

The option of falling back to Mullaithivu may be open, but troops have been slowly inching their way, through what some say is the One Four Base in the Welioya-Kokilai area.

Karuna for one feels that the Tigers would continue to fall back, even east of the A9. He feels that the Tigers cannot hold back the forces without risking massive casualties and thereafter making its military heartland — Mullaithivu — even more vulnerable. Karuna says that the Tigers have relied heavily on loosely trained civilians or the Makkal Paddai (civilian force) to thwart military advances, especially on the Mannar front while keeping the more battle hardened in reserve.

Only time will tell whether the Tigers would hedge all their bets on defending Mullaithivu or make a move before that.