Inevitability Of A Political Solution

Gotabaya Rajapakse’s admission to an Indian news service that his brother’s government had failed to show its ‘genuineness, to convince outsiders about its sincerity in resolving the (Tamil) problem’ and that ‘if Tamils are not with us then it is our weakness’ should not be considered as the arrival of the moment of truth but the acknowledgement of a long realised truth which has not often been spoken about. Gotabaya Rajapakse, the Defence Secretary has claimed that President Mahinda Rajapakse has been saying all along that the ethnic problem needs to be resolved politically.

However the President has not been saying it ‘all along’ as brother Gotabaya has claimed but only on and off and very infrequently at that. The public is well aware that the refrain all along the two and half years of the Rajapakse government has been on defeating the LTTE militarily to eradicate terrorism and the talk of a political solution was rarely heard of.

The Defence Secretary was replying to a comment of India’s National Security Advisor, M.K. Narayanan that even if the Sri Lanka government ‘won the battle against the LTTE it would not win the war because they did not have the Tamils on their side.’ Gotabaya Rajapakse’s admission and Narayanan’s advice echoed the statement made by the Army Commander Lt. Gen. Sarath Fonseka who had earlier admitted that even if the LTTE was defeated in war the issue of Tamil nationalism would remain unresolved and the insurrection could go on forever.

Whether these statements indicate a move by the government to start a search for a political solution other than through the proven failure of the All Party Conference remains to be seen. Or are these statements being made to ward off international pressure on the government to search for a political solution given the fact the APRC is now dead in the water with even the JHU pulling out?

History has shown that the resolution of racial problems, demands for a separate state, national liberation etc. cannot be achieved through military endeavours alone but ultimately there has to be a political resolution if the rival factions are to live together in peace. Be it Kashmir, Palestine, Kosovo, Darfur and now Ossetia, the search for political solutions go on. This hard reality the extremists in the south spearheaded by the JHU have failed to understand even after the Army Commander no less followed by Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapakse have now gone on record stating there has to be a political solution to the crisis. That alone is an acknowledgement that the crisis confronting Sri Lanka is not one of terrorism alone, which sadly the arm chair extremists guiding the destiny of this country fail to concede.

Political solutions do not drop out of the skies nor can they be found through vague and half hearted attempts such as through the All Party Conference (APC) on which this government says it has placed its trust. Besides, there has to be a genuine commitment on the part of the affected parties to find a solution. It will not be unfair to say that the very composition of this APC precludes the arrival at any solution. The latest hiccup in the APC is the decision of the Jathika Hela Urumaya to keep off the proceedings because of attempts to establish a dialogue between rival parties. The JVP too has kept out of the APRC for similar reasons while the UNP too pulled out over the delaying tactics of the government. Thus President Rajapakse’s stated objective of resolving this intractable problem through the cantankerous assortment of political parties gives rise to suspicions that he is not really keen on an immediate resolution of the problem politically and it is possibly having sensed this mindset that Narayanan went public with India’s thinking given her own compulsions with elections not too far away and South India becoming increasingly restless.

Gotabhaya Rajapakse in his comments has ruled out holding talks with the LTTE as it would be a waste of time. Indeed the LTTE too shows little inclination for such talks. But a democratically elected government of a sovereign country, unlike a terrorist organisation, should be committed to finding a credible political solution acceptable, if not to the intractable LTTE, to the Tamil community as a whole. That exactly was the point even Narayanan was trying to drive into Temple Trees. President Rajapakse’s initial move should have been to seek the co-operation of the UNP, the biggest single party and reach a consensus on proposals that could be presented to the Tamil community. Instead, Rajapakse while claiming a desire to seek consensus with the UNP bought over18 MPs of the UNP with the offer of ministerial posts drawing the wrath of the UNP and wrecking all hopes of a peaceful resolution. Rajapakse in his two and a half year stay in office has shown more of an inclination to split up opposition parties to his advantage and political survival rather than bring about a resolution of the national problem.

President Rajapakse even if he sincerely desires a political settlement is now committed to the hilt to continue with his military operations for his political survival. As the prestigious journal The Economist described him, he has become a ‘war president.’ He has presented himself to the Sinhalese electorate as a ‘warrior leader’ who would crush LTTE terrorism and liberate areas now under the control of the LTTE.

In the face of the highest inflation rate in entire Asia, he depends much on military victories for his popularity. A volte face from a ‘war president’ to leader of peace could place his presidency at risk and doom his administration which has been tainted with allegations of corruption, human rights abuses, nepotism, racism and dictatorial just to name a few.

The Tamil community has been estranged from other communities for over a quarter century and if the government and the entire country wish to win back their confidence much more has to be done other than constitutional amendments that could guarantee their rights. Mahinda Rajapakse as the President has first to show to them that he is the undisputed leader of all Sri Lankans and is able to guarantee the rights and settle the grievances of all communities even handed. Baby kissing and worship in kovils with state TV cameramen in attendance alone will not win the confidence of the Tamil people. He together with the UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe must be able to present a common set of proposals if these proposals are to be considered as being credible.

Most resolutions attempted so far have been around the 13th Amendment which was introduced in 1987. Many changes have taken place in the 21 years that have lapsed. And no doubt the Tamil community will be making their own proposals. The opinions of the TNA — even though they may be considered proxies of the LTTE, Messrs Anandasangari, Douglas Devananda and those academics of the UTHR (J) will have to be listened to and incorporated. For all that to happen the political will of the Executive President should prevail.

Will President Rajapakse be inclined to exercise such a will at the risk of eroding his political support? His reticence in speaking about a political solution as compared with his unstoppable rhetoric on defeating LTTE terrorism does not give much hope for a political resolution to be forthcoming in the near future. But with the passage of time pressure demanding a political solution will reach levels that will be impossible to resist. However much the more extreme elements supporting the government may holler, ground realities will dictate such a move.