While the government went into panic mode last week over the upcoming provincial polls in the North Central and Sabaragamuwa Provinces following survey reports commissioned by President Mahinda Rajapakse painted a dismal picture of the ruling UPFA’s chances, the unfolding developments in the war front compelled the administration to concede that the ultimate solution to the ethnic conflict must be political.

That the ethnic conflict cannot be won militarily alone was first announced by Army Commander Sarath Fonseka no less weeks earlier when he addressed the Foreign Correspondents Association raising many an eyebrow among the more extremist elements supportive of the government.

On that occasion Commander Fonseka was to say that even though the LTTE can be defeated as a conventional force within months, given the Tamil nationalism among the people, the insurrection could go on forever with the LTTE able to last another 20 years.

But the government propaganda mills chose to ignore Commander Fonseka’s reality check and fuelled by the more extreme elements supporting the administration, they continued to repeat the mantra the end of the war was imminent since the UPFA’s political survival depended on such a projection.

It is in this backdrop, India’s National Security Advisor, M.K. Narayanan went public on Tuesday, August 12 with his comments that even if the government wins the battle, it will not win the war unless a viable political solution which will win over the Tamil people is put in place.

What Narayanan in fact did was nothing more than develop on Army Commander Sarath Fonseka’s own argument of the need to address the Tamil nationalism issue if the conflict is to be resolved in reality, which point refreshingly, Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapakse himself acknowledged 24 hours later, stating the ultimate solution has to be political.

However, what was of primary concern to President Rajapakse last week was not so much Narayanan’s straight talk but the outcome of survey reports he commissioned on the government’s popularity in the North Central and Sabaragamuwa Provinces and for all the war hype, the results were frightening.

The Presidential surveys showed not only voter apathy among UPFA supporters but also the UNP leading in both provinces by two to three per cent margins, which in general election terms can be disastrous for the government.

Mind you, any government has the advantage of incumbency when it comes to local or provincial polls and the expectation was for the UPFA to romp home comfortably and it is in that very belief the President dissolved the two councils, one year in advance.

The ground reality however appears otherwise and with the surveys showing the government trailing, the ruling party has turned to violence as a last resort, even as the President fired a warning that the district leaders of Ratnapura, Kegalle, Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa will be held responsible for any defeat.

Ironically, within hours after the President made his pitch, UNP’s Chief Ministerial candidate for Sabaragamuwa, Ranjan Ramanayake and his convoy came under attack signaling what’s in store for the coming days.

This sense of desperation was also reflected in a telephone conversation Government Defence Spokesperson and Minister Keheliya Rambukwella had with UNP’s Kegalle District Leader Kabir Hashim where no quarter was asked and none given.

Minister Rambukwella in that conversation having made his excuses for not attending the wedding of the UNP MP’s daughter advised him against visiting the Kegalle District during the last 48 hours before the election, signalling violent times were ahead.

The surprised UNP MP was to ask Rambukwella why he should not do so and pat came the Minister’s reply — "It won’t be good for your health."

Added Rambukwella — "We have planned many things for the last two days and it would not be advisable for you to be in the area."

Asked Hashim — "Are you threatening me?"

Shot back Rambukwella - "It is not a threat, but advise for your own good."

Not to be cowed down, an upbeat Hashim shot back — "I advise you to keep away from Kegalle. I will be very much there. You may come with your guns but we will have the peoples’ power behind us, so it will be healthy for you to stay away."

That warning apart, Power Minister Mahindananda Aluthgamage was to state at a public meeting in Mawanella on Monday, August 11 that with the army and the police being theirs, the UPFA will win somehow and how they win was immaterial, thus signalling the strategy is to win not so much by hook but crook.

And given the seriousness of the issue and the government’s political agenda and survival hanging on securing victory in all four districts and both provinces, the President went so far as to cancel the August 20 cabinet meeting and directed the ministers to stay put in the battle grounds and campaign without coming to Colombo.

It was in fact after the cabinet meeting ended on Wednesday, August 13 that President Rajapakse revealed to the ministers the results of the surveys conducted and called for remedial action lest the UPFA ends the loser come August 23.

The President told the ministers his greatest fear was that of SLFP supporters not coming out to vote both due to disenchantment and complacency thereby giving the opposition an advantage.

Rajapakse said the survey reports he had commissioned were not promising and lot more work needed to be done for victory and unless all the members put their shoulder to the wheel, there can be trouble ahead.

By this time, the President had also received reports meetings addressed by ministers including the Prime Minister were very poorly attended and that there was a great deal of anger in the provinces directed in particular at the two chief ministers, Berty Premalal Dissanayake and Mahipala Herath whilst in contrast UNP’s two new faces, Janaka Perera, a war veteran and popular film star Ranjan Ramanayake were attracting large crowds.

The surveys also showed, it was only President Rajapakse who was still holding his own in the popularity stakes, with the war the only plus factor for the government and orders were given to keep pushing the war propaganda at grassroots levels in the house to house campaigns.

The President told the ministers, he has already given the survey reports to the Prime Minister and that all members should cooperate to overcome the difficulties ahead if they are to emerge victorious.

Having said that, the President pitched into the campaign conducted by the candidates, accusing them of running behind preference votes rather than ensuring the party’s victory first.

Said the President – "Go and tell the candidates not to fight over the preference votes but campaign as a united force and motivate the party supporters to come out and vote."

The President then took a broadside at Samurdhi Minister Pavitra Wanniarachchi, whose husband is contesting from the Ratnapura District stating some candidates were busy covering the posters of their fellow candidates in the battle for preference votes without working for the party’s benefit.

Added Rajapakse – "There is a candidate called Bandara. He is a poor man who has come forward to contest. His posters are covered by another candidate. This is not good. It is totally unacceptable. Such conduct sends negative signals to the voters."

That said, what was of further concern to the President given the survey results was the UPFA even in the event of victory not being in a position to form stable administrations in both provinces considering the inroads made by both the UNP and JVP.

For, given the marginal lead enjoyed by the UNP according to the survey, even if the government turns it around through violence or otherwise, they will not be in a position to secure outright victory in the two provinces with the members elected from the UNP and JVP together expected to be more than the UPFA numbers.

The President of course also gave a propaganda tool for the ministers to take to the two provinces, in the form of the war effort, stating at the meeting the security forces were making great strides in the Wanni and before long Kilinochchi will be in the bag.

"Our forces have gone quite a distance into Kilinochchi. In fact we have taken over a couple of villages. They are now at a distance, where if needed, Kilinochchi town can be targeted using our multi-barrel guns. It is going extremely well. Our biggest challenge is to ensure civilians are safeguarded while taking on the LTTE. That is our top priority and that is why it is taking a little time," the President told the ministers.

He said the government would take Pooneryn sooner than later.

Having listened to the President, Public Administration Minister, Karu Jayasuriya inquired whether the troops were moving from the Nagar Kovil area to Pooneryn, and explaining the war strategy was JHU’s Environment Minister, Champika Ranawaka who said the offensive was conducted only from the south.

This prompted another minister to inquire whether the LTTE had in fact acquired chemical weapons as announced, and very smartly, the President pooh poohed the story stating the Tigers would have used it by now if they had any such capability.

In fact, it was Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickremanayake who first said in parliament in September 2007 evidence had surfaced the LTTE was planning to use chemical weapons against the security forces and last week, TMVP Leader, Karuna came out with the same theory, only to be scoffed at by Rajapakse.

The President knew only too well if such foolhardy statements reached the security forces fighting on the ground, there would be panic leading to more desertions and he dismissed it as mere rhetoric much to the relief of the ministers.

Of course the President has reason for optimism on the war front at least to seriously weaken the LTTE, given the support by China in general and Pakistan in particular especially when it comes to meeting the military’s requirements.

In fact just recently, the Pakistan High Commission urged the Pakistan Army to immediately ship a large consignment of bombs (numbers withheld for national security considerations) in addition to the huge consignment supplied earlier.

This additional request was made as it was urgently required by the security forces to continue its operations against the LTTE and signal to the troops there will be no shortage of the wherewithal to face the challenges ahead, thereby helping keep their morale high at ground level.

That the LTTE was feeling this pressure became evident when it offered a ceasefire to the government before the SAARC Summit through UN Under Secretary General of Management Angela Kane, who had earlier visited Siri Lanka in her capacity as Assistant Secretary General of Political Affairs.

At that time Kane conveyed LTTE’s offer to the President through Foreign Secretary Palitha Kohona but with the government confident of sustaining the pressure on the Tigers due to Pakistan’s support, the offer was rejected.

In fact, having spurned the offer the security forces proceeded to capture the Mannar District and entered Kilinochchi on August 2.

Thus the battle has now entered a decisive phase with a huge chunk of territory, which was under Tiger control coming under the government’s writ and for its part the LTTE has lost Madhu, Vidattalthivu, Illupaikkadvai and Vellankulam.

And though the LTTE appears to be on the backfoot, it is preparing by all indications for a final showdown in the jungles of Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu where it had pitched battles with the Indian Peace Keeping Force 20 years back and survived to fight on.

Of course, the government’s security forces have achieved continued success hitherto by raising additional divisions, high morale, sinking of LTTE ships, precise bombing by the air force and an unabated supply of arms and ammunition from friendly countries, notably, China and Pakistan, though the rate of desertions continues to be a cause for worry.

Pakistan in particular has been Sri Lanka’s rock of Gibraltar in the fight against the LTTE with ships loaded with the necessary wherewithal sailing to Colombo from Karachi.

Such is Pakistan’s commitment to Sri Lanka’s unity, it has released from its ordnance factory the required support with the shortfall met from the war reserves of the Pakistan Army.

And to prove to Sri Lanka she is their for the long haul, Pakistan has promised one ship load of wherewithal every 10 days in the coming months and it is in the assurance of such solid support that possibly prompted the otherwise cautious Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapakse to publicly state Kilinochchi will be liberated by end December.

And all this support is thanks largely to the personal rapport between Army Commander Sarath Fonseka and Pakistan’s Army Chief of Staff, General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani who had conceded to the request of General Fonseka at a time the Sri Lanka Army was in urgent requirement of supplies.

The Pakistani General who was formerly Director of the Secret Service, the Inter Services Intelligence in a show of solidarity with General Fonseka agreed to the risk of depleting his own army’s stocks to help meet Sri Lanka’s requirements since it would otherwise have taken a considerable time for Pakistan’s factories to manufacture the Sri Lankan requirements which were of an urgent nature.

In contrast, India was rocking Lanka’s boat with some home truths — that for all the successes in the battlefield, the war will not end unless the Tamil people are won over with a viable political package.

And this warning came from none other than India’s National Security Advisor, M.K. Narayanan, who in an interview with the Straits Times on Tuesday said Sri Lanka may win the battle against the Tigers but not the war as "they have not got the Tamil population on their side."

Conceding Sri Lanka has made a lot of progress in the last few weeks on the war front, Narayanan goes on to state why the war cannot be won, prefacing his comments with a statement that the government will be unhappy with the advise given.

Adds Narayanan – "I know the Sri Lankan government will be unhappy (at this advise) but we are not interested in preaching to them and that is the best advise they could get. India can give this advise better than the Norwegians or any other country. These are people that we know, we understand. Do they want a situation like many countries have faced?"

Having uttered those potent words, and citing Iraq as an example for good measure, Narayanan adds – "What we are telling them is, get the Tamils on your side by greater devolution of power. For them to be part of Sri Lankan state, they need the huge Tamil minority on their side."

Finally after more words of ‘advise,’ Narayanan concludes with this comment – "Our argument is: Unless you give Tamils a feeling they have the right to their own destiny in many matters, you will not succeed. LTTE’s capacity to carry out terrorist attacks is not diminished."

In effect, Narayanan is calling for the 13th Amendment plus plus formula Prime Minister Manmohan Singh also called for through the All Party Representative Committee during his talks with President Rajapakse and other political parties during his SAARC visit.

The need for such a political solution though anathema to the JHU and other extremists supporting the government was acknowledged by Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapakse who, of course knows the ground reality when it comes to the war and appears, given his comments, not to be driven by emotion alone.

Responding to Narayanan’s comments through IANS the Defence Secretary whilst calling for a Sri Lankan identity had this to say inter alia — "There is nothing negative to what Narayanan has said. In my opinion he has only put in different words what our President has been saying, that we need to defeat terrorism but the (ethnic) problem needs to be resolved (politically)."

The Defence Secretary also welcomes Narayanan’s positive comments on the progress made by the security forces and concedes the government has failed in the propaganda war and adds, "If Tamils indeed are not with us, then it is our weakness."

And when the Defence Secretary refers to a political solution, it necessarily means a 13th Amendment plus solution in the least since the 13th Amendment is already in the constitution and what is spoken of in terms of a political solution is an improvement thereof.

It is on that score, just as the Defence Secretary has conceded, the government has failed to establish its bona fides with the world and the Tamil people due to the policy agenda being driven by the likes of JHU’s Champika Ranawaka and NFF’s Wimal Weerawansa.

This fact was driven home last week once again when the JHU boycotted the APRC which met on August 11, resulting in the meeting not making any progress.

And having boycotted the meeting, the JHU later announced, it will no longer participate in the process since the committee was moving towards a federal solution.

With that the APRC which is scheduled to meet again on August 25 is as good as dead and brings into sharp focus once again, Gotabaya Rajapakse’s own words that "On the whole it is the inability of the President and the government to show sincerity to the Tamils and to the outside world. We have to improve that. It will take time…."