New faces that were a game changer for UNP

President presents himself as candidate
after dismal survey results

An election where the opposition
gave as good as it got

APRC to call JHU's bluff and finalise report

President only calls for inclusion of 'unitary state'

The country will wake up this morning to the news of a provincial council election marred by violence and allegations of mass scale rigging as results start trickling in. The nation will wake up to a provincial polls result that has increasingly gained in national importance even as President Rajapakse himself, as an emergency campaign measure decided to turn it into a referendum for his war effort and his performance instead.

When President Rajapakse first decided it prudent to hold elections in the two provinces one year ahead of schedule he did so not only to test the pulse of the people in order to ascertain his next move on an early general election, he also wanted to stabilise the provincial administration following the JVP's withdrawal from government which left his regime in minority status.

At the time with no sign of the military efforts of the government waning in popularity, Rajapakse felt the provinces would be an easy win despite the economic hardships the people had to face.

Advantage of incumbency

Certain the people were with his regime on this important issue which overrode the voter significance of the economy and with the UNP again facing turmoil as another group lead by Johnston Fernando and Lakshman Seneviratne called for reforms within the party, and mind you the JVP also in a split, the government cannot be faulted for assuming it could sail through a provincial poll with little difficulty and almost no effort.

The government also knew it had the advantage of incumbency as the voter would be well aware that there could not be a real change in the administration of the province as there was no genuine empowerment in the event an opposition provincial council was returned save for a minor culvert repair or an additional telephone pole in the neighbourhood. In 2002 for instance the UNP won 96 percent of the local authorities due to incumbency as was the case after 2004 with the Chandrika Kumaratunga lead UPFA.

 However the best laid plans of mice and men sometimes go awry and the government watched as a lagging opposition suddenly if unbelievably, picked up its campaign. A fact admitted by President Rajapakse himself.

The candidates

To politicians that usually perform on the diktats of sorcerers and augurers, the fault this time seemed not to lay in their stars but in their choice of chief ministerial candidates. The opposition UNP fielded two new faces in politics. Janaka Perera a man with a proven track record on the war front always a plus point to a militarised voter mindset and of course a popular actor in the form and shape of Ranjan Ramanayake. To a proven superficial polity one is entitled to suppose that Ramanayake, of well built physique and with the looks of a modern Vijaya Kumaratunga was also a star attraction.

The UPFA however went instead with the old brigade and not a very popular old brigade either. The combination of Berty Premalal Dissanayake and Mahipala Herath were distasteful as the duo were battling with allegations of corruption, and were generally unpopular in the provinces having ruled the roost for over eight years.

In fact it was a point Basil Rajapakse was to make to his elder brother before the nominations but President Rajapakse was in a bind over the issue. In dissolving the two provincial councils he had to have the two chief ministers' approval as it was they who had to take the procedural steps within the councils. And for that Rajapakse had to give the two an assurance that they would be made the chief ministerial candidates.

Out with the old

However as the campaign moved forward it appeared that the UNP which had at first seemed dead in the water was now gathering momentum not so much because of the efforts of the UNP provincial infrastructure but rather, buoyed up by the people themselves who were successful in uplifting the campaign to frenzying levels. It was as if pent up frustrations of a harried public were bursting forth into a call for change. It was also a message to the UNP members that the people were not interested in their backroom infighting but instead wanted a united face to overcome the challenges ahead.

It also brought into focus another consideration that curiously informs the electoral process of this country. The power of the new. The enchantment of the unknown. It was this mysterious quality that was to help President Rajapakse in his presidential efforts in 2005. It was this quality that was to sweep Chandrika Kumaratunga into power in 1994. 

It is a powerful tool that President Rajapakse himself has acknowledged on many occasions. After all Rajapakse himself was in a position to project himself as a new face in 2005 having played the role of rebel within his own government since 1994, an image the media no less helped develop for him.

Meanwhile the UNP was fired up and encouraged by the people rallying around them though it still remains to be seen even as this columnist writes whether such crowds would eventually translate into votes. That we will know shortly today.

Tremendously encouraged by crowd support many UNP stalwarts were reminded of the 1977 campaign when Sirimavo Bandaranaike was routed by a buoyant J.R. Jayewardene led UNP with Ranil Wickremesinghe no less telling party members the people's response reminded him of the 1977 wave. Whether it will be so in reality this morning will tell. 

However as the campaign developed and UNP support grew, the violence intensified and the government feared it would suffer a loss in the provinces feeling more and more insecure as time wore on. This time however the UNP was ready to face fire with fire.

Eye for an eye

For instance the make up of Janaka Perera does not allow him to take a hit without retaliation. In the Anuradhapura District where government elements commenced its fear campaign early, Janaka Perera and his team soon demonstrated they would give more than they bally well got.

In fact last week the violence peaked with UNP Anuradhapura District campaign manager Dr Johnpulle's residence burnt to a cinder.

The UNP alleged it was a government sponsored mob that first set fire to his dispensary, and then to the house. Dr. Johnpulle has been a medical practitioner who is said to have treated patients free-of-charge.

The UNP also alleged that there were some 100 police personnel at the time of the incident but they did not take action and even the fire brigade was prevented from reaching the spot. The UNP also reportedly alleged that petrol had been extracted from the vehicles of Berty Premalal Dissanayake and Media Minister Anura Priyadarshana Yapa to set the house on fire.

However for the UNP lot enough was enough. Immediately after this attack UNP supporters were to attack the SLFP office in Kekirawa. On Friday Ranil Wickremesinghe went to Anuradhapura to meet with Johnpulle and Janaka Perera in a show of solidarity which also gave the party supporters a morale booster.

Diplomatic concern

Whatever the result of Saturday's poll, with even US Ambassador Robert Blake meeting with Elections Commissioner Dayananda Dissanayake and diplomatic concern over the violence, the election will remain a reflection of the lawlessness and culture of impunity that prevails under the Rajapakse regime.

Be that as it may 'One Shot' Ramanayake, a man who has, even before he joined politics in so forceful a manner, relentlessly taken up the cause of the battered Middle Eastern migrant worker, was also ready to face fire with perhaps a different kind of heat. For example in the Ratnapura District, Embilipitiya, Kolonne areas have traditionally been a disaster for the UNP with the party losing heavily with large majorities. However One Shot Rama was able to attract unprecedented crowds to his rallies with even young boys and girls rallying around cheering and shouting with enthusiasm.

On one occasion last week even as Ranil Wickremesinghe presided over one of Ramanayake's rallies he was to notice the youthful cheering squad and invited them on stage. Not surprisingly they came forth clutching pen and paper to get the autograph of the not so bad looking actor on stage. Those on stage could not help smiling to themselves as one little boy while asking for Ramanayake's autograph was to innocently tell him, 'Amma kiwwa telephone nomberayath liyala denna kiyala' (My mother said to write down your telephone number as well.)

But whatever the reasons for Ramanayake's popularity President Rajapakse was a worried man. Earlier in the campaign as he saw the support for the UNP building up and well aware of how weak and unpopular his own chief ministerial candidates were and going by reports and surveys commissioned by his government itself, he decided to join the fray.

Campaign

In a panic Rajapakse decided to turn the provincial campaign into his own campaign. To turn the focus from his unwinnable chief ministerial candidates onto a more winning formula, by pitching himself and of course the war effort into the centre of the campaign.  A referendum if you will of the government war effort and his personal performance. And this was now reflected in the posters, on campaign platforms and in election advertising as Mahinda Rajapakse decided to market himself.     

So much so that even the Jana Hamuwa (Meet the People) television programme aired on all channels last Tuesday interestingly featured President Rajapakse, three UNP dissidents Karu Jayasuriya, Hemakumara Nanayakkara and Sarath Amunugama, MEP Leader Dinesh Gunawardena and a team of officials including P.B.Jayasundera and Lalith Weeratunga.

Even though the programme focused particularly on the provincial elections with it being connected live to four electorates, namely Medirigiriya, Kekirawa, Dedigama and Kalawana, both Berty Premalal and Mahipala, the government's chief ministerial candidates were conspicuous by their absence from the panel. Neither did Rajapakse have a single SLFP minister on his panel. By doing this while attempting to reach the UNP supporter through the dissidents on the one hand, he was, by hiding his chief ministerial candidates and other SLFPers, also trying to create the impression that he was running this campaign and facing this election himself.

Economy

Even though the government continues to market the war Rajapakse was also seen handling a large number of questions on the economy demonstrating that the economic hardships and questions of cost of living, transport, health, education and basic infrastructure overrode the issue of war.

Obviously orchestrated as these programmes usually are, Rajapakse himself was trying to get the message across to the voter that while the war was being fought he had not forgotten the basic needs of the people, especially such matters as roads and peripheral infrastructure which of course would be the electoral issues at provincial level.

That the programme featured a public that was mainly SLFP was demonstrated when one man asked a question on the economy with a winding preamble on how great a leader Rajapakse was, and the President interjected quickly with, "yes you are the SLFP trade union leader for railways aren't you?" 

However despite the one sided SLFP oriented crowd participation it was obvious that questions of economy were foremost in the minds of the people. This had indeed become increasingly clear even in independent reports and surveys commissioned by the government during the campaign.

And as the campaign drew to a close, last Wednesday evening Mahinda Rajapakse was to tell confidants that whoever won it was almost certain to be a close call and a win with only a narrow margin. He also said it was this very uncertainty and the upsurge in support for a joint opposition that had prompted him to pitch himself into the campaign.

A risk

But by marketing himself and the war effort, Rajapakse was in fact taking a risk. If the government did not succeed in taking the two provinces with all four districts or did so with only a narrow margin of victory especially in two provinces which the UPFA had earlier won with huge majorities at both the presidential election and the provincial council elections, then it is indeed a test. A sort of exam as Power Minister Mahindananda Aluthgamage himself said so menacingly.

And it would be an exam at which Rajapakse did not do so well in the national context given that he put the popularity of himself and his war knowingly at stake. It would show even if he won with a slim majority as opposed to the large majorities in 2005 and 2007 that his popularity had waned and that the war effort was losing its shine.

Remember also that the reason for the UPFA strength in 2005 was the fact that the JVP was at that time with the government although Rajapakse did win with even bigger majorities at the local polls in 2007 with the JVP going separately. Therefore a drop in numbers will be a clear indication  the administration's popularity is on the wane especially considering the propaganda hype the war is all but won.    

And it is a realisation of this scenario that prompted President Rajapakse to tell confidants last Thursday evening that if the government fails to get an outright majority to bring back political stability to the council and confront larger issues he may be compelled to open a dialogue with UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe.

Rigging

It was in this backdrop that Ranil Wickremesinghe was to receive news of a severe rigging campaign by the government as it had become clear to the government it could not notch up a victory short of rigging the polls. Information was reliably received by the UNP that the plan was to stuff ballot boxes and engage in undemocratic activity mainly between 7.30am and 9am election morning. The thinking was that all rigging and other nefarious activities must be largely concluded before the election monitors arrived on the scene.

Information had also reached Wickremesinghe that - as endorsed by SLFP Minister Aluthgamage himself, who boasted that since the police, government agents and other officials were 'theirs' they will win the election by hook or by crook - the police had been directed to turn a blind eye to any government rigging and ordered to severely under man polling booths especially before the monitors arrived so that government mobs could do their dirty work.   

Wickremesinghe immediately sent out word to provincial leaders to look sharp and prepare for such a contingency and also sent out teams to meet the DIGs of the provinces.

UNP frontliners Ravi Karunanayake, John Amaratunga, Tissa Attanayake and S.B. Dissanayake were to meet DIG Sabaragamuwa Upali Hewage following a letter fired by the UNP to the Inspector General of Police Jayantha Wickremaratne.

The letter informed the IGP that he had not granted a meeting to the UNP even though several attempts were made to meet him regarding election violence and rigging concerns and it was as a last resort that they sought to bring to his notice these matters in writing.

Game afoot

The UNP contingent meanwhile informed DIG Hewage that the game was afoot. Violence in Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa were reaching unprecedented levels they said, and to a lesser extent in Ratnapura, Kegalle and that they too would be prepared to meet fire with fire. They however called for more police presence and protection in the North Central Province due to its volatile situation. This is organised chaos they told Hewage, also warning him that their supporters would not take this violence lying down anymore.

However Hewage had at first remained poker faced denying any cause for concern stating 'no, no, it is not easy as we have given orders to shoot on sight.'

The UNP contingent had then informed him that the UNP is well aware that the lower rung police officers are fully with them as there is a surge of anti government feeling among the grass roots. However they were to point out, the police top hierarchy are not allowing them to do their job. Be careful, in the estate areas, we also have help from outside, we are ready to meet any contingency, the defiant UNP MPs were to tell Hewage.

They also said that this is a combined opposition against government tyranny and the people were willing to take matters into their own hands if the police turn a blind eye. They were ready the UNPers said even with video facilities at the polling booths, 'the government too knows we are ready,' they informed the DIG.

Assurance

Hewage assured however that the police would ensure a free and fair poll. DIG Hewage also informed them that he had told President Rajapakse himself that the votes that are coming in are for President Rajapakse and that no preferential votes were coming in.

And while President Rajapakse's plate was full with the elections, he had to deal with the Indian call for a 13th Amendment plus plus solution as well. For Rajapakse who was internationally marketing the All Party Representative Committee as the panacea of all ethnic ills was to be disappointed by its performance as he is, at least on the surface, disappointed by all of his committees and commissions set up for superficial purposes.

The JHU last week withdrew from the APRC. Funnily enough however and a fact that would place the extremist party in some difficulty is that, up until his unceremonious removal as their APRC representative two weeks ago, the JHU's Udaya Gammanpila had already agreed to 90 percent of the proposals discussed at the APRC proceedings. This means that the JHU had subscribed to 90 percent of the proposals and this is in fact reflected in the minutes of the preceding meetings.

With APRC Chairman Minister of Science and Technology Prof. Tissa Vitharana also irritated by the government's attitude to the process and its insistence on playing ducks and drakes with the APRC and the APC, it is expected that when the APRC meets tomorrow a proposal will be finalised on what has already been agreed upon.

Earlier in February this year the JHU and the MEP had boycotted the process insisting that they would withdraw from the APRC unless the TMVP was included in the proceedings.

While the JHU had suddenly seen the virtue of the para military group the TMVP and its leader of sorts Pillayan, TULF leader Anandasangaree, a darling of the government for his stand against the LTTE was to express shock. The TMVP he pointed out like the LTTE claims to be the sole representative of the eastern people.  To be a participant in the APRC Anandasangaree said you must have representation in parliament not just in a local body.

Ironically the JHU though styling themselves as the champions of the Sinhala Buddhist cause was willing to hold the process to ransom, even as Pillayan called for a full implementation of the 13th Amendment including police and land powers and all the time refusing to disarm as well.

But last week the Ku Klux Klan of Sri Lankan politics was to withdraw from the APRC process once again. This time in protest of the implementation of the 13th Amendment. One will no doubt appreciate the irony in this given its support for Pillayan, a champion of the 13th Amendment in February this year. The JHU this time around wanted a grama rajya instead - village councils.

JHU position

 They insisted President Mahinda Rajapakse call an All Party Conference (APC) on the issue last week alleging that the APRC was attempting to draft a new constitution based on the federal idea. However APRC Chairman Prof. Tissa Vitharana told media last week the objective of the APRC was to find a solution within a unitary state with maximum power devolution to the provinces.

The JHU's position is that maximum power devolution cannot be granted within a unitary state. Their thinking is that if maximum power is to be devolved to the provincial councils with land and police powers, there would be nine states not nine provinces in Sri Lanka.  Had the JHU not thought of this when it supported the land and police power touting TMVP in February last year as it threatened to withdraw from the APRC unless the para military group was included in the process?

The JHU are adamant that fulfilling the aspirations of each community on their ethnic background is impossible as it would be a never ending process and what is needed is a system that would facilitate all communities to attend to their needs without hindrance - this they suppose could be done through a village council.

Mahinda Rajapakse meanwhile is well aware that while he pushes forward on the military front he must look for a political solution acceptable to all communities and like it or not given the geo political ramifications have the blessings of India.

A rose by any other name

Therefore Rajapakse was to make a request of Chairman Vitharana. The President told Vitharana that whatever solution the APRC comes up with, it must not tamper with the unitary state in name and that the nature of the state whether it be quasi federal or federal in character like the Indian model should be described in no uncertain terms as a unitary state. This he said is in keeping with the pledge he gave in his Mahinda Chinthanaya to maintain the unitary state. In effect Rajapakse told the APRC to devolve power as per a federal concept if need be but couch it, indeed hide it in acceptable language such as 'unitary state.'

Meanwhile in the final analysis even without the benefit of the polls results this can be said.  For the government which has made this provincial election a test of general electoral value even losing one or two districts to the UNP while winning the council would not translate favourably into a general election win.

In fact even in the east while the overall win enabled the government to form a council the loss of Trincomalee demonstrates that a general election win will be a tough call especially given the TNA factor as well.

Keeping in mind that an incumbent government always has the advantage at local and provincial elections due to the limited powers that can be wielded by local elected authorities, losing a district in provincial terms translates into huge numbers and tremendous impact in general election terms.  

Perhaps it is this fact coupled with reports and surveys reaching him in the past couple of weeks that prompted Mahinda Rajapakse to hint of reaching out to the UNP sooner rather than later and suggest they work together on a formal basis.