President looks for options as Govt. gets bogged in Tamil Nadu quagmire

With the crises both economic and military coming to a head as Kilinochchi remains out of reach despite government claims the town would be taken in a couple of days President Rajapakse is no doubt having sleepless nights.

And with Rajapakse privately admitting there is an unexpected resistance and high casualties in the push for Kilinochchi - an admission that is reflected in the figures of dead and injured submitted to parliament, the government has now been forced back to the drawing board.

Battle for Stalingrad

Even Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapakse last Tuesday admitted to editors at a meeting in Temple Trees that the monsoons were impeding progress and said the military would not work to populist agendas but military ones. Ironically it is none other than the government and no one else that claimed in August it would overrun Kilinochchi in a few days and the military top brass and defence websites that claimed easy time frames and played the dangerous numbers game.

Gotabaya was to also refer to an article by former Indian Additional Cabinet Secretary B. Raman that Kilinochchi could be likened to the Battle for Stalingrad and the monsoon to the fierce Russian winter.           

The Battle of Stalingrad was considered the bloodiest battle with the largest battlefield casualties in the history of conventional warfare with both sides disregarding human rights on a large scale and an estimated 1.5 million deaths to its name as civilians were massacred in numbers.

Over-confident army

Raman explains that under a carefully worked out plan, the Soviet Army inveigled an advancing and over-confident Nazi Army into Stalingrad and then inflicted severe casualties on the Nazi Army. Raman says, as the battle began on July 17, 1942, the Nazi Disinformation Machine worked overtime to tell an unsuspecting German people that the fall of Stalingrad and the collapse of the Soviet Army were imminent. The German people waited with bated breath for the news of the fall "Within two days,"  Raman writes.

"Two days became two weeks. Two weeks became two months. Two months became seven months. The battle ended disastrously for the Nazis on February 2, 1943. This marked the beginning of the end of the Nazi dreams in the Second World War." Raman poses the question, "Is one seeing a mini version of Stalingrad in the battle for Kilinochchi?"

Tiger chief speaks

Even as Raman's comparison gave government pause, Velupillai Pirapaharan in a rare email interview with a popular Tamil Nadu  magazine Nakkeeran has staked his own credibility on the issue by stating that President Rajapakse is day dreaming if he thinks the military can take over Kilinochchi.  

And Pirapaharan himself, obviously fortified by Tamil Nadu support and buoyed up by the fact that there is again a growing secessionist sentiment amongst the people in Tamil Nadu that is secretly alarming the Indian Central Government, has made a public proclamation of Tamil Eelam.

To a direct question as to whether the LTTE still insisted on Eelam or  would accept a solution that envisaged an administrative framework with minimum powers, the Tiger Supremo said that the "Tamil people have during every election since 1977, indicated what their political aspirations are and it was this that would be the permanent solution for the ethnic crisis." (Please see page 4 for full interview) 

Despite the ambivalence of the response, given that the LTTE together with hate blinded Sinhala extremists succeeded in defeating in 2004 the more moderate yet strategically planned policies of Ranil Wickremesinghe that would have permanently locked the LTTE into a political solution, and given the intransigence of the LTTE during negotiations, the implications of this statement are very clear.

Secessionist aspirations

And for secessionist aspirations to take root it is important to have a humanitarian element that would justify such a split. This the short sighted Rajapakse government held hostage by the Wimal Weerawansas and Champika Ranawakas of this world have provided in plenty to the country's detriment.

Another reason why the LTTE who sees in Wickremesinghe a far more dangerous enemy politically and internationally and an enemy to whom they think more and more moderate Sinhalese and the minorities will look for deliverance as casualties rise and the economy crashes, has named him high on their latest enemy hit list. 

Ironically while the LTTE have named him target number one, the Police Department in their latest list of 'Very Important People' needing special security and round the clock protection have dropped the Opposition Leader along with Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickremanayake and the Speaker from its VIP list.

But for now it will be India that preoccupies Rajapakse's mind. With extremist elements like the JHU, Karuna and the National Freedom Front(NFF) attempting to whip up anti India sentiment, President Mahinda Rajapakse last week realised that any anti Indian sentiment now would be counter-productive given the Indian centre itself was trapped in a political bind in the backdrop of a general election next year.

Basil to India

Having two weeks ago changed his mind at the 11th hour to send Foreign Minister Rohitha Bogollagama to meet his counterpart Pranab Mukherjee following a reaction  from New Delhi over Tamil Nadu pressure, President Rajapakse is today to send Presidential Advisor and sibling Basil Rajapakse to New Delhi  to explain the government's position on the humanitarian crisis.

The government explanation, a preview of which was put forward at last Tuesday's Presidential meeting with the editors is, simply put - to blame the humanitarian crisis on the LTTE.

Basil Rajapakse who leaves today for New Delhi will expound the government position which is simply that the now famous tape depicting footage of thousands of suffering civilians and played by Karunanidhi at rallies and picked up even by NDTV, is a fake.

Fake tape

The tape according to the government was given to the alleged live in partner of Karunanidhi's daughter Kanimozhi. Kanimozhi's alleged partner Sri Lanka's government claims is a man called Caspersz who has met Pirapaharan and is a good friend to the LTTE and its leader. The tape therefore they claim is doctored footage given to Kanimozhi's partner by the LTTE for propaganda purposes to whip up support for the DMK and to cement its ultra Tamilian pro LTTE vote base.

Meanwhile DMK led legislators from Tamil Nadu where the LTTE once trained and sources say still has strong political influence, have threatened to resign from parliament if Prime Minister Manmohan Singh does not stop the war in two weeks.

The stakes were raised further by Friday with pro LTTE Vaiko remanded for his support for the LTTE in a demonstration and Jayalalitha's AIADMK calling for Karunanidhi's arrest in the State Assembly for supporting the LTTE, a banned organisation in India and staging a walk out.

However political analysts say the two week ultimatum is a fluid one designed to fortify the voter base of the DMK after the exit of the PMK and the left from the DMK-led Democratic Progressive Alliance (DPA). Some political observers have predicted that the DMK could end up with as little as 12 seats at the general election where it now holds 39. DMK in June severed its ties with PMK, a key outside ally and a constituent of the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) party in the centre.

Meanwhile the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has reportedly told Indian media that the DMK had been silent on the issue for four years and had woken up suddenly only because of the ensuing general elections.

In fact Foreign Minister Rohitha Bogollagama himself speaking last Tuesday at the editors' meeting pointed out that even during the eastern liberation there were IDPs but the DMK had not been concerned about them.    

The BJP meanwhile wanting to score some brownie points has said that "The BJP has condemned the killings in Sri Lanka several times in resolutions passed in its national council meets. The DMK, on the other hand maintained a silence for long years as part of the UPA (United Progressive Alliance) coalition in the centre. What it is doing now is only sabre rattling for the benefit of voters," BJP leader Ganesan has said.  

Clearly this goes to show that the Sri Lankan issue has become a political football in India's complicated political stadium. But that does not absolve the Sri Lankan government. It cannot getaway from the fact that 200,000 IDPs are now wondering the parched jungles of Mullaitivu. It cannot divest itself of responsibility for the war against its own citizenry that has resulted in a humanitarian crisis of gargantuan proportions.

As a legitimate, democratically elected government that should uphold the tenets of democracy it cannot be seen to thrive in a culture of impunity while a section of Sri Lankans suffer in such inhuman conditions in open prison camps with no hope for the future. 

However the Rajapakse strategy on this is simply to blame someone else. Basil Rajapakse on his visit to New Delhi will address this issue by merely blaming the LTTE stating the Tigers have created this crisis by not allowing the civilians to come over to government controlled territory.

Blame game

It is to give credence to this line of thinking that the government is using persons like EPDP Leader Douglas Devananda and TMVP's Karuna Amman by getting them to make carefully prepared statements to the press including to the editors last Tuesday.

Douglas Devananda last Tuesday was to say that there were 150,000-200,000 people in uncleared areas and the LTTE was holding them and preventing them from coming down south. He said the EPDP intended to organise a hartal to talk about this.

"The DMK and AIDMK leaders Karunanidhi and Jayalalitha don't talk on behalf of the LTTE. The LTTE had given this CD about civilian casualties which is why they are shouting," he had also said.

Karuna was to deliver a speech where he referenced the origin of the LTTE militarisation to India stating "we are talking about the Indian situation. I was 22 years with the LTTE. I know the Indian situation better than most people. In 1983 the Indians invited and trained the LTTE. That's an open secret. It was done by Indira Gandhi. I was also trained in India but they hadn't a proper understanding of Sri Lanka. India is responsible for the current situation. Had they understood the situation they would have supported one group, instead they supported all groups," he said.

It was a master ploy by Rajapakse to send a veiled message to India on the one hand by using Karuna, a man trained in terrorism by India and to then placate them by saying the Indians do not want separatism and then also shift the blame for the war onto the LTTE by saying Pirapaharan does not want a political solution and remind the Indians that it was he who killed Rajiv Gandhi - a man who promoted vigorously the 13th Amendment.

Mouth piece

Karuna's proximity to the government and his role as their mouth piece for the Eastern Tamils is however costing him his credibility in the east and his place in the TMVP. "The President has established provincial councils which is what India was trying to do with the 13th Amendment. But some parts of the 13th Amendment cannot be implemented right away. What is important now is development," he was to say last Tuesday.

Reflecting growing discontent between TMVP Chief Minister Pillayan who has insisted on police powers, Karuna said "Tamil leaders should act responsibly and not ask for police powers as Sinhalese will suspect us if we do it right now. We have to win the hearts of the Sinhalese nation."

However the TMVP has insisted that the official stand of the party remains the same. That Karuna has fallen foul of the party is more evident as a demonstration he seeks to hold today against Tamil Nadu's interference of Sri Lanka's 'War against Terrorism' in Batticaloa is not backed by the high command of the TMVP and Chief Minister of the Eastern Province Pillayan who is now trying to present himself as a leader in touch with the sentiments of Tamil civilians.

Pillayan/Karuna rift

Pillayan is also attempting to distance himself from Karuna and the government on IDPs and human rights in order to find resonance with the suffering civilians of the north and emerge as an alternate political leader of the Tamil people rather than a mere pro Sinhala government voice.  

Recall the government had earlier called upon civilians to move out of Kilinochchi due to intense fighting including aerial bombardment. However civilians who managed to move out are immediately rounded up in military camps and treated as terrorists according to some reports.

Mullaitivu, independent reports say, is also teeming with paramilitary groups including pockets of LTTE, Karuna, Pillayan and EPDP operatives terrorising civilians and IDPs who have nowhere to go and no one to turn to for help.

The government in September, for various reasons perhaps including the fact it was indiscriminately aerially bombarding Kilinochchi and didn't want collateral damage which would cause international wrath, and due to pressure by Sinhala extremists accusing NGOs of supporting the LTTE, directed all UN agencies and NGOs operating in Kilinochchi to move out stating it had its own mechanisms and network of government agents to distribute food to civilians trapped by the war.

However NGO sources say most of the time government agents are forced to work according to LTTE dictates or receive a bullet in the head. A bullet that would have fought shy of entering the head of a foreign NGO given the LTTE craves international recognition and validation as a legitimate entity.

But UN agency sources say, it is the withdrawal of foreign aid workers by the government that has led to this crisis with food hardly reaching its original target but often hijacked by the LTTE.

Be that as it may, last Thursday Sri Lanka's Deputy High Commissioner's office in Chennai was attacked by protesters injuring a member of the diplomatic staff as Tamil Nadu kept the pressure up, even as Vaiko was arrested on charges of making seditious statements, after threatening to take up arms in support of the LTTE at a rally where he accused India's government of backing Sri Lanka's army.

Trapped Sinhalese

As Sri Lanka's Chennai Mission was being besieged by angry protesters Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe was to receive a call from Ven. Palitha Thero who was in Chennai. The call came even as Wickremesinghe was holding discussions with MP Ravi Karunanayake on the current Tamil Nadu situation.

Palitha Thero expressed concern over the attack and appealed to Wickremesinghe to use his good offices to obtain protection for the Sinhalese in the Maha Bodhi area. The monk explained that some 500 Sinhalese were at the Buddhist Temple in close proximity to the Mission and he feared for their safety in the light of whipped up anger by Tamil Nadu politicians.

Wickremesinghe was to immediately call Indian High Commissioner in Sri Lanka Alok Prasad and apprise him of the situation and the possible vulnerability of the Sinhalese in the temple and surroundings. Prasad assured Wickremesinghe he had already been informed of the protest and had made arrangements to protect all concerned and was watching the situation closely.

Meanwhile also on Thursday in the backdrop of accusations India continued to militarily help Sri Lanka, India's External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee said in the Rajya Sabha that India had told the Sri Lankan government that it was its responsibility to provide aid to civilians displaced due to hostilities.

"India has asked Sri Lankan authorities to ensure that their fight was against terrorists," Mukherjee said.  Mukherjee also said they had told the Sri Lankan government to begin the political dialogue soon.

Referring to a recent visit of senior Indian officials to Sri Lanka, Mukherjee said the officials went there to discuss and assess the current situation. "We will not like to have international players in our backyard. We have maintained very comprehensive relations with Sri Lanka."

Economic slide

But it is in the midst of all this that President Mahinda Percival Rajapakse has to contend with an economic slide that would crush Sri Lanka's finances further as the world economy plummets. Rajapakse knows that the economic meltdown will result in a freeze in aid as countries look inward and business slows down.

Economic experts have said that due to the meltdown of the US and European markets Sri Lanka's exports are bound to shrink by 300-500 million dollars.

Exports account for 77% of total revenue from the US but the US market has declined by 8.2 percent making the European market even more important and the GSP Plus a vital factor. The EU accounts for 36% of total exports as at June 2008

According to statistics quoted by analyst Rohantha Athukorale 59% of the export income on the 3.8 billion dollar performance has been generated from the US and Europe. The US accounted, it is reported, for 897 million dollars which is 23% of the total export proceeds with apparels accounting for 692 million dollars. The apparel sector has already declined by about 11.2 percent as at June this year.

And as global consumer spending shrinks there will be less tourist arrivals, less demand for exports and certainly less time to and money to spend on funding developing economies like Sri Lanka.

GSP Plus again

Meanwhile despite calls from the Rajapakse regime  it would not participate in investigations on whether GSP Plus concessions should be granted to Sri Lanka, the EU has said it would go ahead with the investigation to determine if Sri Lanka satisfies the requirements to be granted the concession. A concession vied for by many other countries as well.

British Under Secretary of State, Gareth Thomas on September 23 has in a letter to a  colleague who queried the British government's approach to the Sri Lankan government's request for the GSP+ trade preferences scheme in the wake of a statement by Minister G.L. Peiris that Britain would look at the issue favourably had set the record straight.

Gareth Thomas states as follows: "In mid September, before I met with you, I met with Professor Peiris, (the Sri Lankan Trade Minister) to make clear to the Sri Lankan government that Britain, like other EC countries, expected the Sri Lankan government to adhere in practice as well as in principle to the many good governance and human rights conventions which have to be committed to in order to receive GSP+ preferences. I made clear that Britain's attitude to the Sri Lankan request depended on further improvements on the human rights situation in Sri Lanka. This has been our position for some time and has not changed."

Bound hand and foot

Therefore Rajapakse now finds himself bound hand and foot by ropes of his own making. His failure to properly address the humanitarian crisis first resulted in a freeze in the Millennium Account.  It will in all probability result in Sri Lanka losing its GSP concession which will hit the export industry a terrible blow especially as the US market for Sri Lanka's exports continues to shrink.

The International Monetary Fund is also in the process of reviewing funding to Sri Lanka even as the World Bank said in a release two weeks ago Sri Lanka was among 28 countries that have no room to increase borrowing even though aid is its only option. The report on fiscal vulnerability in developing countries revealed that Sri Lanka has little or no debt headroom to meet the fiscal costs from the twin shocks of food and fuel prices.

The report comes in the wake of current moves by Sri Lanka to negotiate 150 million US dollars in commercial debt and obtain a further 300 million US dollars in a syndicated loan. Sri Lanka early October invited proposals for a $300 million syndicated loan with a maturity period of two years or more to fund according to the Central Bank a raft of infrastructure projects.

However economic experts dismissed infrastructure claims saying the government was devouring money borrowed at commercial rates on recurrent expenditure and salaries. However the Central Bank in a statement earlier said the government plans to raise 32 billion rupees by way of a syndicated loan in US dollars or any major reserve currency from international markets.

It is in this backdrop that President Rajapakse met with Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe for a one hour discussion Friday afternoon where the current issues confronting the country were discussed.

While there were no fix solutions found for the crises, the UNP Leader had stressed the urgency of forwarding a political solution at the earliest while the President had maintained he could do so only after Kilinochchi is captured.

And there lies the rub.