With nine days to go for the American presidential elections the outcome of which will affect most countries it does appear that history is being made with black candidate Barack Obama well ahead of his Republican rival John McCain, almost all polls indicate.

The election could be regarded as historic because  this is the first time there is the possibility of a black candidate being elected  and also because it is being held at a time of economic collapse - an 'economic tsunami' according to Alan Greenspan, the former head of the US Treasury - 'not experienced in America for more than a century.'

Recession

The economic collapse is now showing signs of going into an American economic recession and this has immensely favoured Democratic candidate Obama as against John McCain whose party led by Republican President George Bush has been in power for eight years and John McCain having backed Bush both in financial and foreign policy.

Republicans, on the defensive, have been criticising Obama for his policy of taxing the super rich saying that it would result in 'job killing.' Obama has countered that 750,000 jobs have been lost across America since January this year and that this was a consequence of Republican policies which are backed by McCain and his vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin.

Presidential prospects look bright for Barack Obama who  independent observers have said won all three prime time TV presidential debates. The polls are showing surging support for Obama  and his campaign funds have swelled to a record $ 600 million in two years.

Even in closely contested states - battleground states as they are called - Obama leads though by slight margins in some states and according to most polls Obama leads McCain by 50.1 to 42.6 on the national average - lead of + 7.5. The electoral college count on which the winner will be decided on Obama now has 306 to McCain's 157.

Debates no decider

But winning debates does not necessarily indicate who will win White House. It is being pointed out that John Kerry who was the Democratic candidate at the last presidential election won all three debates but lost to George Bush.

In a previous column we cited a report which said that Kerry was confident of victory till the last week when Osama bin Laden released a video in which he said that al Qaeda would launch attacks on America if Bush turns out to be the winner. Kerry was quoted in that report saying that the shift of voters could not be explained (in the last week of that election) save for the release of that video. It could be that the American voters thought George Bush could handle such an eventuality better.

Political analysts point out that in previous presidential election campaigns too events - unforeseen events in October - had resulted in a shift in voters' opinion on polling day. This phenomenon has been called 'October Surprises.' 

Some say that the October Surprise of this election was the sudden financial meltdown of the economy which resulted in a surge for Barack Obama. But some more surprises could yet come.

Another threat?

A similar development took place on a website identified as being pro al Qaeda last week. A suggestion has been made that a pre election terror attack on the US would be welcomed by al Qaeda as it would help in ushering in John McCain as president. The message had said that if al Qaeda wants to exhaust the US militarily and economically, 'the impetuous' John McCain should be elected because he is more likely to continue the war in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Al Qaeda supports McCain because McCain will continue the failing march of George Bush, the  unidentified writer on the website had said. Some newspapers have already picked up these comments and there is bound to be a hot debate on whether this could be a hatchet job on McCain or Obama.

Whether American voters would react in the same way they did in 2004, three years after 9/11 now - four years later in 2008 - is debatable. Obama is also being subjected to an anonymous telephone campaign where recorded messages are being telephoned alleging Obama's alleged association in the past with terrorists.

Palin's wardrobe

Another October surprise was the revelation that $ 150,000 of Republican funds had been spent on Sarah Palin's clothes while election legislation opposes spending of campaign funds on the personal use of candidates. Palin had spent $ 49, 425 as 'campaign accessories' purchasing clothes from the fashion chain, Saks Fifth Avenue New York and St. Louis and also another $ 75,000 for  purchase of clothes from an exclusive store in Minneapolis.

Her hair make up had cost $ 44,000. Palin had explained these expenses for the Republican Convention appearance and said that the clothes will be given to charities. However reports said that she would have to pay taxes for the clothes purchased.

Meanwhile reports also said that police in some cities were preparing for riots in the event Barack Obama loses the election. Extra forces were being mobilised including SWAT teams trained to handle riots.