'Military solution' assumes slower pace as India accelerates the pressure

Karunanidhi told Basil agreed to go slow
on aerial attacks

President looks for political solution
in an 'undivided Sri Lanka'

Basil says India told him West was
mounting pressure

Mahinda tells Cabinet foreign powers
trying to influence India against Sri Lanka

JVP screams but JHU, NFF silent over Indian deal

While the government faced with a crippling economic crisis succumbed last week to Tamil Nadu pressure on a solution to the ethnic conflict amidst growing dissension within the southern Indian state, the LTTE upped the stakes by launching twin air strikes that sent the Rajapakse administration's overall political cum military strategy into a tailspin.

That the government is in dire financial straits there is no gainsaying with no funds to even meet the daily expenditure resulting in a trickle-down impact on the private sector as well.

Obligations

So serious is the financial crisis, government agents are stretched to meet their obligations and the private sector finds it near impossible to collect monies due to it from the State for goods and services rendered with the construction industry alone owed over two billion rupees.

To make matters worse, the government due to a poor human rights record is faced with losing the GSP Plus facility from the European Union forcing it to bail the industry with a massive cash infusion and save hundreds of thousands of jobs in addition to a similar commitment to protect the tea industry.

All this in a climate of global economic recession where funds are slow to come by for the government when there is a desperate need to finance a never-ending war, which is taking a heavy toll on both human and economic terms.

Driven by extremist fervour in prosecuting the war, the government lost sight of the important role the international community can play in the overall scheme of things and completely ignored  human rights as well as political aspects by not so much as placing on the table a political solution and  President Rajapakse is now having to pay the price for that folly.

Stalemate

All the LTTE had to do, it was repeatedly said, was to fight for a stalemate but with the politically driven propaganda-drums beating that scores of tigers were killed every day and the end of war was imminent, the administration's big wigs made the fatal mistake of swallowing their own propaganda in the teeth of security forces casualty figures staring at their collective faces.

Not only did the government believe its own propaganda but went so far as to use its propaganda mouthpieces to call any person who dared  present a different view point a traitor to the national cause.  This even when consistent warnings were given that losing the economic war would impact devastatingly on the fight against the LTTE and for that reason alone the concerns of the international community too should be taken on board.

And with the imminent fall of Kilinochchi announced as far back as August 18, the government rode the high horse leaving it to the likes of JHU's Champika Ranawaka, NFF's Wimal Weerawansa and Army Commander Sarath Fonseka to set the agenda with even statements of Sinhala supremacy thrown in for good measure while the international community turned the heat on as the number of Internally Displaced Persons topped the  200,000 mark.

Ceasefire

It is in this backdrop Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Muthuval Karunanidhi on October 14 issued a two-week ultimatum to the Congress led government in New Delhi that unless a ceasefire is secured to protect the Tamil civilians in the Wanni, there would be resignations en bloc  resulting in the collapse of the Manmohan Singh administration.

For a government which two months earlier said Kilinochchi would be captured within days and that there was only two more kilometers still to go had two weeks to play with before the ultimatum came into force but little headway was made compelling President Rajapakse to send brother Basil Rajapakse on Saturday, October 25 to New Delhi and strike a compromise.

Dominant

With that the UPFA government not only conceded a dominant role for a foreign power in Sri Lanka's ethnic conflict but also the reality there was indeed an ethnic conflict, which needed to be addressed politically contrary to claims made by Minister Ranawaka, Weerawansa and the Army Commander.

And saying it in direct terms in language used by Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe was none other than President Rajapakse himself in an interview with Hindu Editor N. Ram over dinner on Tuesday at Temple Trees.

Said the President as reported in Wednesday's lead story on page one in the Hindu - "Let me reiterate that my government is firmly committed to a negotiated political solution - based on devolution of power and ensuring the democratic, political, including linguistic rights of all our Tamil brethren within an undivided Sri Lanka."

Undivided

The words "undivided Sri Lanka," as opposed to a 'unitary state' were pregnant with meaning and could not have been put better by Karunanidhi himself and the President was not finished yet, going on to rule out a military solution to the ethnic conflict.

Added he according to the Hindu - "as President of Sri Lanka. I am absolutely clear that there is, and can be, no military solution to political questions. I have always maintained this. A military solution is for the terrorists; a political solution is for the people living in this country."

This necessarily means the President is now committed to a political solution before the LTTE is militarily defeated because Army Commander Sarath Fonseka has gone on record stating the LTTE will go on for at least another 20 years with at least 1000 cadres and elsewhere in this edition, the Director General of the Media Center for National Security Lakshman Hulugalle is saying much the same.

Why?

So why the change of heart?

The answer lies in the ground realities with the President now coming to terms with the fact, he cannot operate in a vacuum whatever line the Sinhala extremists may feed him, especially in the backdrop of an economic nightmare staring at his face.

And unpalatable though it may be for those war mongers in government the pressure mounted by Tamil Nadu on the Indian Central Government which in turn bore down on Sri Lanka drove home this point to President Rajapakse.

With the security forces meeting unexpected resistance compelling the government to even withhold the casualty figures from the defence ministry websites and the President finding the going tough to raise money to keep replenishing the defence requirements, slowing down the offensive was inevitable and doing so at the insistence of India and the international community was a good enough excuse to be marketed subtly to the Sri Lanka electorate.

It is in this overall context, the developments in India have to be viewed with Basil Rajapakse giving a number of guarantees to New Delhi which prompted Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Karunanidhi to take his foot off the accelerator.

Pull out

In the weeks and days prior to Basil Rajapakse's visit to New delhi, it will be recalled, the government not only called on all the UN agencies to pull out of Kilinochchi but went so far as to say it has enough essential supplies for the IDPs and would ensure the supplies reached them.

But under pressure from Karunanidhi, New Delhi did not buy Sri Lanka's version of the facts and struck a hard deal with Rajapakse, which will for all the public posturing change the policy trajectory of the Colombo administration both with regards to the war and the political situation as evident in the Hindu interview given by the President.

Stop

And notwithstanding all the smiling photographs issued after the senior presidential advisor's meetings with India's External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, National Security Advisor, M.K. Narayanan, and Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon, there was some tough talking in New Delhi, where Basil Rajapakse was told carpet bombing which impact on civilians must stop, a political solution must be acted upon speedily, relief supplies guaranteed for the IDPs and stop the killing of Indian fishermen straying into Sri Lankan waters. (See Pot Shots on pages 4 &5)

To drive home the point that the plight of the IDP's was grave, India told Rajapakse they will send relief supplies which could be delivered through the UN and state agencies and further Tamil Nadu would do likewise.

The pith and substance of the discussions  were later captured in a  statement couched in diplomatic language inter alia thus - "India conveyed its concern at the humanitarian situation in the northern part of Sri Lanka, especially of the civilians and internally displaced persons caught in the hostilities and emphasized the need for unhindered essential relief supplies. Also, Rajapakse briefed the Indian authorities of the efforts by the Sri Lankan government to afford relief and ensure the welfare of the civilian population in the north. He assured that the safety and well-being of the Tamil community in Sri Lanka is being taken care of."

"As a gesture of goodwill, India has decided to send around 800 tonnes of relief material to Sri Lanka for the affected civilians in the north. The government of Sri Lanka will facilitate the delivery. Both sides agreed to consult and co-operate with each other in addressing these humanitarian issues."

"Both sides discussed the need to move towards a peacefully negotiated political settlement in the island including the north. Both sides agreed that terrorism should be countered with resolve. The Indian side called for implementation of the 13th amendment and greater devolution of powers to the provinces. Mr. Basil Rajapakse emphasized that the President of Sri Lanka and his government were firmly committed to a political process that would lead to a sustainable solution."

Joint statement

What was not in the joint statement and which the senior presidential advisor communicated to Colombo was that the Indian side had told him representations were made on the plight of the civilians due to aerial bombardment by both Germany and Norway.

Rajapakse told the President, he was also informed in New Delhi that Norway's International Development Minister Erik Solheim had personally spoken with foreign secretary Menon and expressed concerns over the aerial bombardment and the need to put a halt to it.

It is this information Basil Rajapakse claimed he learned in India that prompted him to attack the west for 'interfering' in Sri Lanka, on Monday, October 27 even as Minister Mukherjee was smoothening the ruffled feathers of Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Karunanidhi on the basis of agreements reached with the senior presidential advisor.

Said Basil the US Greencard holder, to the BBC Sinhala service and local media - "The West has been supporting the stronger side whenever it suits them. It is witnessed in our history that the West has supported the LTTE."

Special envoy

Be that as it may, after meeting Rajapakse in New Delhi, External Affairs Minister Mukherjee flew to Chennai for a meeting with Karunanidhi where a full briefing was given on the outcome of the talks with Sri Lanka's special envoy including the assurance received there will be no more aerial bombardment other than on identified LTTE targets.

This,  Mukherjee said will ensure Tamil civilians will not be affected and that it was for the Sri Lankan government to honour the commitment given. Karunandhi was also told of the assurance given to speedily engage in a political solution, thus obviating the need for his members to resign their parliamentary seats.

Forty years

Happy with the assurance communicated through New Delhi especially on aerial bombardment, Karunanidhi faced the media Sunday, October 26 where he was specifically asked whether there will be a ceasefire and he answered thus - "He (Mukherjee) told me that this struggle is going on for more than 40 years. This cannot be brought to an end in just four days. We asked for a ceasefire to protect the civilians from hardships. Now Sri Lanka has given us an assurance that they would not attack civilians. An environment has been created for talks. How it should be done is being considered. No decision has been made on whether India or another nation or another organization should play a role. No obstacles now exists for discussions about talks and taking action on it."

With that Karunanidhi said a mouthful on the assurances given by Basil Rajapakse through Mukherjee on stopping aerial attacks that will impact on civilians and the fresh push for a negotiated political settlement, which of course has been received with deafening silence by the likes of Champika Ranawaka, Weerawansa and their fellow travelers although the JVP was quick to come out all guns blazing on the government kneeling before Big Brother. 

Thankfully for the President, his JHU and NFF allies have neither called him a traitor for succumbing to Indian pressure or threatened to quit the government for the 'betrayal,' with Nation Building Minister S.M. Chandrasena going so far as to propose a vote of thanks to Basil Rajapakse at the government parliamentary group meeting on Wednesday, for securing for  a good deal from India with labour minister Mervyn Silva ably seconding it.

Active role

Interestingly, while treating India with kid gloves over the issue, what the government now plans to do is fuel an anti-West campaign instead, targeting Norway in particular, thus paving the way for New Delhi to play a more  active role in the ethnic conflict and it is towards this end Basil Rajapakse fired the first salvo with Ranawaka and the National Movement Against Terrorism to follow suit.

As far as the government was concerned, it was best to get India involved in the negotiation process for a political solution as opposed to Norway or any other Western nation and President Rajapakse was to articulate this viewpoint at Wednesday's cabinet meeting in not so subtle terms.

Said the President to Cabinet - "The relationship with India is very good at the moment. What is needed is to strengthen our relationship with India. There is a much better understanding in Tamil Nadu now of what is taking place in terms of humanitarian assistance. But we have to be on our toes to keep India informed of all developments because there are attempts by some foreign powers to get India to act in a different way. That must also be borne in mind."

Chipping in at this point was Human Rights Minister Mahinda Samarasinghe who shed light on a message India's Ambassador to the UN, Nirupam Sen wanted communicated to the President on his dealings with India. Sen of course was India's High Commissioner in Colombo during the Ranil Wickremesinghe administration in 2002 and was credited with masterminding the fall of the UNF government with former President Chandrika Kumaratunge and the JVP.

Said Samarasinghe:-: "I met Nirupam Sen in New York. He wanted me to convey to the President that his (Rajapakse's) telephone call to Manmohan Singh was a very good initiative. That has cleared a lot of doubts that were there in view of various representations being made. The President should continue to be in touch with the Indian Prime Minister, Nirupam Sen asked me to communicate."

Added the Minister - "That initiative created a better environment for Basil Rajapakse to do what he did in New Delhi," a point the President acknowledged.

Pressure

But Karunanidhi was not sitting still either despite the diplomatic efforts of Colombo, mounting pressure on Sri Lanka to honour the assurances given by launching on October 27 a fund-raising campaign to help the Tamil civilians in the Wanni with a personal contribution of Indian rupees one million.

Announcing that the Tamil Nadu state government wanted to meet the immediate needs of the Sri Lankan Tamils for food, clothes and medicines, Karunanidhi called on the Tamil Nadu ministers in the central and state governments to contribute, with union ministers, T.F. Baalu, A. Raja, S.S. Palanimackam, S. Ragupathy, Venkattapathy, and R., Selvi rising to the occasion with Tamil Nadu State Ministers, N. Veerasamy, M.K. Stalin, Duraimurugan, K. Ponmudi, E. Velu, K. S. Ramachandran, T. Tennarasu and V. Saminathan also chipping in.

And to signal they mean business and draw in the film-crazy Tamil Nadu population, the Chairman of the South India Film Artists Association, R. Sarathkumar called for an actors protest on Saturday, November 1 to show solidarity with the Sri Lankan Tamils.

Boost

And giving a boost to this campaign was the announcement by top Tamil film stars they will be participating in the protest campaign with  two icons of the Tamil film industry, Rajinikant and Kamalahasan  stating  they will be present at the proposed fasting campaign  at the Nadigar Sangam building at T. Nagaran, Chennai.

It is with the stage thus set that the LTTE launched twin air attacks on Tuesday, October 28, leaving the government helpless despite having at least 45 minutes warning time the Tiger aircraft were on the way to Colombo.

The attack left the government all the more bewildered since it believed, given the assurances to New Delhi by Basil Rajapakse there will be reciprocation on the part of the Tigers but it appeared the message had not filtered down to the Tigers and this compelled the Air Force to launch a retaliatory air strike the following day, prompting India to once again move in and quieten things down.

That apart, the Tiger air attack strengthened India's case vis-a-vis China on the radar issue with New Delhi's Indira radar the first to detect the 'flying mosquitoes" giving the airforce ample warning time to get their target albeit to no avail.

Given the several air attacks launched by the LTTE, the airforce initially blamed the two dimensional Indian radars for the failure to intercept and down the aircraft but on October 28, when the Tiger aircraft bombed Thalladi and Colombo as it did during the earlier attacks in Vavuniya and Trincomalee it was the Indian radars that did the job again.

Radar

Mind you, given the concerns of the air force, the government invested in a three dimensional Chinese radar Y4-11 and located it in the Gampaha district which however inside sources say only provided a weak and intermittent signal of the aircraft's movement towards Colombo. In contrast, the Indian radar at the Katunayake airport had provided a more powerful signal.

This development is not very surprising in that the Y4-11 Chinese radar can cover upto 180 kms and low level range of 60-70 kms and interestingly, the airforce had said with a 3D radar and night interceptors they could neutralise the LTTE aircraft.

However despite President Rajapakse providing the airforce its requirements from China, the LTTE aircraft could not be intercepted and the failure to lock-on could only be attributed to either the skill of the pilot or the Chinese equipment which may well be 'hand me downs.'

Either way, having wanted the Chinese equipment and the President leaving no stone unturned to provide them to the air force, Chief Roshan Gunathileke will now have some tough explaining to do what went wrong.

All in all it was a good week for India and it remains to be seen how successful she will be in the weeks ahead in taking control of the Sri Lankan situation to the exclusion of regional rivals, Pakistan and China.